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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

After spending weeks locked in secret negotiations with the Nationals on climate policy, the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, is now heading to the UN climate summit in Glasgow.

But while his deal with the minor party might solve an internal political issue, it still leaves Australia without an ambitious emissions reduction plan. And that could lead to more political trouble for Scott Morrison as the federal Labor opposition weighs up whether it should fight the upcoming election on climate policy.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno, on Scott Morrison’s climate plan and the danger it might pose to his prime ministership.

It’s Friday, October 29.

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RUBY:

Paul, last night the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, left Canberra to fly to Glasgow. He’s about to take part in COP26 - the UN climate summit. He’s arriving after striking a deal with the Nationals on emissions reductions. So let's talk about the position that Australia is taking to Glasgow - tell me about it.

PAUL:

Well Ruby, while debate in Australia’s been focused on what kind of political deal the Prime Minister would eventually strike with his junior Coalition partners, the Nationals. The bigger question is whether the government’s re-badged climate policy will actually be enough to avert runaway climate change. On that metric it’s clear the government has failed. This week the United Nations’ secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, has been urging world leaders to embrace more ambitious targets for 2030, which is not what Morrison unveiled this week.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“And our plan to reach what will be our new official target of reaching net zero emissions by 2050.”

PAUL:

What he did release was a very vague plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050, a policy he stridently opposed at the last election.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“Our plan works with Australians to achieve this goal. Our plan enables them, it doesn't legislate them, it doesn't mandate them, it doesn't force them.”

PAUL:

The government has also made it clear that it isn’t intending on using legislation to reduce emissions, instead focusing on technology, much of which doesn’t yet exist.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“It's not a plan at any cost. There's no blank checks here. It will not shut down our coal or gas production or exports.”

PAUL:

Examples of that technology include things like carbon capture and storage, something many climate scientists argue is unproven and in fact will deepen our reliance on fossil fuels at a time when we need to be shifting to renewables very quickly.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“We won't just be measuring the fact that we'll be reducing emissions. We'll be measuring the fact that we're creating jobs…”

PAUL:

In fact the government’s plan points to an increase in natural gas consumption, which really sums up how underwhelming it is.

RUBY:

Ok so the government here in Australia has committed to a policy of net-zero by 2050 - but the focus of the Glasgow summit is actually on 2030 targets. So what is our position on that?

PAUL:

Well Ruby it was a confusing message from the Prime Minister. Our official target is to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 percent by 2030. That’s what we adopted at Paris 5 years ago, and they’re significantly less ambitious than what other developed nations are now signing up to.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“You'll be supported by our updated projection that will see us exceed our 2030 target with emissions reduction of up to 35 percent by 2030.”

PAUL:

This week Morrison said Australia was on track to exceed those targets. He said we were likely to hit a 35% reduction by 2030 but he refused to commit to such a target for Glasgow.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“We will keep our commitment, though, when it comes to our pledge that we made and took to the last election of 26 to 28 percent.”

PAUL:

So despite all the bluster over net-zero by 2050, Australia is heading into Glasgow with one of the weakest targets in the developed world. It also means that Morrison is heading to the upcoming federal election with those feeble reduction targets, which has shifted a lot of the focus now onto Labor and what they might be offering up as an alternative.

RUBY:

So does Labor have a climate policy yet Paul? What are they proposing?

PAUL:

Well Ruby, I’m glad you asked. Labor doesn’t have its own target for 2030.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“All right, let's talk about Labour's lack of a target. Why do we have to wait until after the Glasgow climate summit for that? What can we possibly learn in the next few weeks that we don't already know?”

PAUL:

The party’s climate spokesperson Chris Bowen says Labor is trying to give the government “room” to shift, and arrive at a policy in Glasgow that Labor could support.

Archival Tape -- Chris Bowen:

“We wanted to give the government a chance to get this right because actually bipartisanship would be good here. If the government actually came up with a decent plan, we would have given it bipartisan backing and that would be a good thing for the country. We wanted to give them the space to do it.”

PAUL:

Labour is currently debating what its 2030 climate targets should be, but you can bet that whatever they are, whether they’re 5 percent or 50 percent more ambitious than the government’s - Morrison will portray them as economy destroying. But, given the Business Council and the NSW Coalition government are backing cuts of 50% by 2030, Morrison’s attacks will be struggling for traction and credibility.

Archival Tape -- Chris Bowen:

“We'll also be announcing detailed plans, more than a steaming pile of nothingness that you saw from the government of the day yesterday, the steaming pile of nothingness that Scott Morrison pretends is a plan.”

PAUL:

Now Bowen for his part says that Labor will be announcing detailed plans soon. That means, Ruby, we could be facing the most climate policy centric election campaign since Howard vs Rudd back in 2007.

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RUBY:

Paul, we don’t know exactly when the next federal election will be held but let's talk about how things are looking at the moment for the major parties - how are Labor and the Coalition positioned in terms of their standing with voters?

PAUL:

Well right now, Ruby, the Labor party is a pretty commanding lead. In the latest news polls it’s ahead 54 points to 46 in the two party preferred terms. And its lead’s been consistent over the past 6 months. And if those numbers were replicated on election day, Labor would win in a landslide. Weighing heavily, though, on the Opposition’s brains trust is how to build on the entrenched lead and not have Morrison snatch victory from the jaws of defeat as he did in 2019. Party insiders I’ve spoken to have no doubts Morrison is itching for a scare campaign – any sort of scare, but so far Albanese has denied him any leverage on tax cuts, nuclear submarines or indeed coal industry jobs.

RUBY:

So what is the Coalition planning to do, Paul, do you think, to try and close that gap?

PAUL:

It’s a good question Ruby. How to repeat the so-called ‘miracle win’ of 2019 is weighing heavily on the minds of key government figures. This week Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told the Coalition party room to look back to John Howard’s come from behind win in 2004 for inspiration. He said that win was based on a campaign of “Who do you trust”, and that’s what his colleagues should be focusing on. But there’s a big problem with that line of attack.

RUBY:

And what’s the problem Paul?

PAUL:

Well back then John Howard made Labor’s Mark Latham the issue...

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“Mark Latham has to beat John Howard and history tomorrow.”

Archival Tape -- John Howard:

“It is going to be much closer than those published polls suggest.”

PAUL:

Much of it based on feedback from his MPs that voters in their electorates had grave doubts about Latham despite the then opposition’s consistent lead in the polls.

Archival Tape -- John Howard:

“The kicks will not only hurt, but if there are enough of them, kick us out.”

PAUL:

During the campaign, Latham was dogged by a story that he broke a taxi driver’s arm in a dispute about a fare. And at the 2004 election, Labor’s lead only started to evaporate towards the end of the campaign

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“The gruelling six week federal election campaign is over. Both major leaders are saying it's too close to call. But that didn't stop them wrestling for the upper hand today.”

PAUL:

and then ultimately disappeared after Latham’s aggressive handshake nearly yanked off Howard’s arm on the eve of the election.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“It's the image of the campaign, facing off on the final day.”

PAUL:

Well Albanese dismisses the comparisons, he rightly says he is no Mark Latham, and he told his MPs this week that the current coalition government is a shambles. And Ruby, no matter what you think of the Howard government, it certainly wasn’t a shambles. You know I think, instead of the 2004 federal election perhaps a bigger historical precedent for the Coalition is 1987 - the infamous “Joh for Canberra” campaign.

RUBY:

Right, so what happened ‘87 Paul, and how do you think the ‘Joh for Canberra’ campaign relates to the current predicament facing the Coalition?

PAUL:

Well that’s when the Queensland Nationals under the rogue leadership of then premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen forced the federal National Party to go to the election with a different tax policy to the Liberals. There are shades of that in terms of the current dispute over climate. You know, at the weekend, 9 of the 21 Nationals are understood to have voted against net zero by 2050, most of them Queenslanders.

Archival Tape -- Matt Canavan:

“At the last election, we said that a 45 percent emissions reduction cut would cost more than 300,000 jobs. We ridicule the idea of a net zero emissions target.”

PAUL:

The most high profile of them, former resources minister Matt Canavan has pledged to campaign against the target all the way to polling day.

Archival Tape -- Matt Canavan:

"Well, I am going to campaign against the policy and I will continue to do that.”

PAUL:

In another act of defiance, the endorsed Liberal National party candidate for the Rockhampton Based seat of Flynn, Colin Boyce, has similarly pledged to campaign against the government’s target.

Archival Tape -- Colin Boyce:

“And what I wanna know is if we’re gonna go down this net carbon, ah, zero emissions rabbit hole, I wanna know how much it’s gonna cost.”

PAUL:

Back in 1987, Labor PM, Bob Hawke, capitalised on the disarray. He called a snap mid-winter election and he duly won. Well the other factor the Coalition is certainly worried about, aside from their palpable disunity, is the impact of billionaire Clive Palmer. Already Palmer is spending millions on a multi-media campaign against other political parties. The net zero target features prominently. There are billboards all over the Sunshine state, Facebook advertisements and almost daily newspaper front pages ads in the national and state print media, their latest message: “zero emissions, zero jobs, zero future.” Sure, Labor is the target too, but Palmer is causing the Nationals enormous grief and he is a huge distraction for them. Morrison, on this, is being torn from the left and the right. Palmer’s campaign looks a bigger problem for him this time than for Albanese. And that would be a major difference on the last election.

And in the meantime Ruby, the planet is slowly frying.

RUBY:

Paul, thank you so much for your time

PAUL:

Thank you Ruby, bye.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today...

Former NSW MP, Daryl Maguire, has given evidence about his relationship with the former Premier, Gladys Berijiklian, at a NSW anti-corruption watchdog hearing. Maguire has said that he and the former premier Gladys Berejiklian loved each other, would live together occasionally, and contemplated having a child.

ICAC is investigating whether Berejiklian breached the public’s trust in the course of her relationship with Maguire, including whether she failed to declare a conflict of interest in helping award multi-million dollar grants to Maguire’s electorate. Gladys Berejiklian is scheduled to testify before the inquiry today.

And the Victorian government has introduced tighter vaccination rules which will come into effect tonight from 6pm. Victorians seeking to be exempt from vaccine mandates will need to apply to the Australian Immunisation Register and only those meeting limited health requirements will be able to obtain a certificate. The state recorded 25 Covid-19 related deaths on Thursday, the largest number reported in a 24-hour period this year.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper. It’s produced by Elle Marsh, Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Anu Hasbold and Alex Gow.

Our senior producer is Ruby Schwartz and our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Brian Campeau mixes the show. Our editor is Osman Faruqi. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ruby Jones, see ya next week.