[Theme Music Starts]

RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

The country might still be in the grip of a pandemic and ongoing lockdowns but our major parties are already planning for a looming federal election. The Prime Minister has strongly hinted the nation could be heading to the polls in just a few months and the political battle lines are now being drawn.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno, on when the election looks likely to be held and what it will be fought over.

It’s Friday September 3.

[Theme Music Ends]

RUBY:

Paul, it feels like there’s been whisperings of whether or not the election will be called this year, or early next year, for a while now. What do you think is driving the uncertainty on this?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, in a word, the pandemic. But, you know, it's been hard to keep track as the Prime Minister's reactions and messages bounce all over the place, more or less in line with his political fortunes.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“Here in Australia. We aren't seeing any community transmission at the moment.”

PAUL:

For the first half of the year, the Morrison government was up in the polls as Australia was doing relatively well in terms of the virus.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“So rather than set targets that can get knocked about by every to and fro of international supply chains and other disruptions that can occur, we're just getting on with it.”

PAUL:

But now the New South Wales and Victorian lockdowns have thrown a gigantic spanner in the works for Morrison. His approval rating has dropped significantly since the Delta variant has spiralled out of control when it took no notice of his preferred prescriptions and as it dramatically demonstrated his failures in providing effective international quarantine and the timely provision of vaccines.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“I take responsibility for the vaccination programme. I also take responsibility for the challenges we've had. Obviously some things within our control, some things that are not.”

PAUL:

And the most recent Newspoll following the downward trend now has him in what would be a landslide loss, trailing Labour by eight points, two party preferred. And as the New South Wales crisis spread to the ACT and Victoria, with Premier Andrews now conceding achieving net zero community transmission looks impossible. All the signs are Morrison really would hold off on going to the polls till next year. But if a mercurial Morrison earlier in the week sparked renewed speculation, he would be heading to an election sooner rather than later, having members of his own backbench now tipping November.

RUBY:

So what has Scott Morrison indicated on election timing, Paul?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, at Tuesday's government joint party room meeting, Morrison told his troops: the election will be coming sooner than you think. And it looked like he'd given the game away. But he quickly covered his slip by adding: because time moves fast. But even here, Ruby, the context was the Prime Minister urging his MPs not to waste a minute preparing for an election in the next six weeks of the parliamentary recess.

Of course, as we've discussed before, Morrisons pathway to success would be to call an election before the pandemic and the economy gets worse, and doing it on the promise that things are about to get better.
And also, I have to tell you, feeding perceptions that the Prime Minister is getting ready for a dash to the polls is the fact the government last week rammed through the parliament, with support of Labour, electoral reform bills. The Liberals are particularly keen to kerb the ability of micro parties on their right flank to get on the ballot. The government didn't give the Senate a chance to scrutinise the bills through the usual committee process. Now, if a November poll wasn't in the equation, there would have been ample time for this to happen.

RUBY:

Hmm ok, so these bills being rushed through the parliament, they’re a clue that the government is seriously considering a November election. What do we know about the Coalition’s political strategy? How is Scott Morrison preparing for an election?

PAUL:

In recent weeks, Morrison was heavily backing the road map, agreed with the states and territories to lift restrictions and open up the borders.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“The national plan we've developed and agreed, is our pathway to living with this virus. That is our goal, to live with this virus, not to live in fear of it.”

PAUL:

Last week, while Newspoll was in the field, he turbo-charged his rhetoric aimed at offering people exhausted by the prolonged lockdowns and worried about their livelihoods, the promise of liberation that would come as Australia hit national targets of 70 then 80 percent of the adult population being vaccinated. And you might remember Morrison compared the Labour premiers who wanted to maintain their hard borders to scared cave people, reneging on the agreed National Cabinet plan. But Ruby, this week, we saw a shift. The Prime Minister embarked on some desperate damage control in the states that are largely Covid free.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“And joining us in the studio is the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison.”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“Good morning to you this morning. Mr Morrison, thank you very much for coming on the show.”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“Now is Scott Morrison, our Prime Minister. Good morning, Prime Minister.”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“Mr Scott Morrison joins me this morning. A bit of an operator error. Did I hang up on you Prime Minister?”

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

[Laughs] “That's ok - I'm glad we’ve been about to connect up!”

PAUL:

It was a much more contrite Scott Morrison on Tuesday, blitzing the radio airwaves in Hobart, Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane with a new conciliatory message.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“I totally understand the caution in Western Australia. I know the situation in Western Australia is different to my home state in New South Wales, where they've got over 1000 cases a day and people don't, you know, are obviously nervous about that. But that's why the national plan we've developed is a very safe one at 70 percent. Then, you know, I think in Western Australia, what you'll see is people keeping going on and doing what they're doing right now.”

PAUL:

...he said while we're all on a journey to a safer future, thanks to vaccination, he also conceded we're starting from different places.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“Well, everyone's standing in a different place. I think that's important to acknowledge. I mean, in New South Wales and Victoria and the ACT, we're in lockdown.”

PAUL:

...and on Perth radio, he even praised Premier McGowan for keeping his citizens safe and claimed an almost special relationship with him.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“It's not, it's actually not about me or Mark. We actually get on very well and we work together very constructively.”

PAUL:

No doubt the Prime Minister has a keen eye to holding the 11 out of 16 seats in the state that make it a hitherto Liberal stronghold. And the background to the flurry of radio appearances was the judgement in the Prime Minister's bunker that they'd got the messaging on learning to live with covid horribly wrong. They'd forgotten, people want assurances any opening would be safe or at least as safe as possible. And of course, Morrison's problem is he's running out of time on his own admission to get it right.

RUBY:

We'll be back after this.

[Advertisement]

RUBY:

Paul, we're talking about how the major parties are positioning themselves for the next federal election. What have you heard from inside the Labour Party room?

PAUL:

Well Ruby, Anthony Albanese is picking up on the vibe around Parliament House. He told the Labour caucus that if Morrison calls an election this year, it'll be an admission that he knows things are going to get worse.

Archival Tape -- Anthony Albanese:

“Scott Morrison had two jobs this year. They were the effective rollout of the vaccine and national quarantine. And we failed on both.”

PAUL:

And Albanese has not let up all year with his message that Morrison has failed in the two jobs he had to do, quarantine and vaccines. And Labour takes the Newspoll as evidence this is cutting through.

RUBY:

Ok so that’s the two major parties, Paul, but we’re also seeing some big announcements from minor parties. In particular, in the last couple of weeks, we've heard a lot from Clive Palmer and his United Australia Party. So tell me about what he's been up to, and what are his plans for this election?

PAUL:

Well, it's now beyond a reasonable doubt, Ruby, that Clive Palmer intends to disrupt this election in the same way as he did the last. You know, you can't spend 83 million dollars on campaigning as the Australian Electoral Commission says Palmer did in the run up to 2019 and not have an impact. Labor certainly believes he did to its detriment. So we're already seeing the beginnings of a massive ad campaign.

Archival Tape -- Craig Kelly:

“I am leading the United Australia Party at the next federal election. The United Australia Party will stand candidates for every seat in the House of Representatives and the Senate.”

PAUL:

They've been front page newspaper ads around the nation for weeks now, spending big on messages contradicting the mainstream scientific advice on Covid-19.

Archival Tape -- Craig Kelly:

“Stop Lockdown's from health offices, destroying your life and jobs. Protect freedom of speech, choices for all Australians. Governments must stop.”

PAUL:

And in the last week, Palmer's spammed millions of Australians with text messages from his newly minted United Australia Party leader Craig Kelly, telling them not to trust Labour, the coalition or the Greens.

Archival Tape -- Craig Kelly:

“Liberal and Labour have destroyed our economy. They've made a trillion dollar debt. They've destroyed jobs and families. Stop the lockdown's time for a change.”

PAUL:

Now, either by accident or design. The billionaire beat the government's electoral reforms by appointing Liberal deserter Craig Kelly to head the UAP, he's ensured his largely imaginary party is registered and will be on the ballot.

RUBY:

Right, so you're saying Craig Kelly and Clive Palmer are sort of joining forces to run a Covid-19 conspiracy campaign?

PAUL:

It certainly looks that way but I have to tell you, Kelly's most significant announcement was that Palmer would bankroll a UAP campaign by as much, if not more, than he spent in 2019.

Archival Tape -- Craig Kelly:

“Domestic passports are a violation of human rights. And yet we stand here in this parliament today with medical apartheid being enforced across the nation.”

PAUL:

Kelly is campaigning against Lockdown's vaccine passports and mandated jabs for essential workers.

Archival Tape -- Craig Kelly:

“The coercion and the bullying of Australians to undergo any type of medical intervention is a violation of human rights and a violation of the principles of Australia's international human rights obligations.”

PAUL:

And he’s foreshadowed the UAP will mount another challenge in the high court to state border lockout's. But, Ruby, you know, that could be something of a problem for the Liberals.

RUBY:

Why is that Paul?

PAUL:

Well, the government’s severely wedged on the issue. The two states where it holds a majority of the federal seats are WA and Queensland, and they're also where the Labor premiers were returned in landslides because of their tough stand keeping Covid out. Now, Morrison missed the sensitivity when he backed Palmer's previous high court border challenge against Premier McGowan, something he would now prefer to forget. Now Morrison says he definitely will not pursue the opening of state borders through the high court.

RUBY:

OK, so how could Clive Palmer influence the outcome of an election?

PAUL:

Well, if Palmer backs his UAP to challenge again in the high court, that would wedge the Liberals because there's no doubt a significant number of their base vote would support Palmer's view. It's an example of the Liberal voters or enough of them here being out of sync with mainstream majority opinion, as shown in a number of opinion polls in recent weeks. Still, I have to tell you, Labour's nervous. One senior Labour strategist says the 2019 campaign played a significant role in shovelling preferences to the Liberals. Labour has no doubt Palmer will repeat the tactics.

But what motivates Palmer's activism isn't immediately obvious. Maybe he is a patriotic Australian doing more than his bit for the nation. Or maybe he really wants a federal government that would be more sympathetic to his massive fossil fuel interests. His thwarting of the more climate ambitious Shorten last time was worth every cent in this calculation. Ruby, it's just a pity the cost of the exercise is pushing snake oil into the nation's efforts to deal with the pandemic.

RUBY:

Paul, thank you so much for your time.

PAUL:

Thank you. Ruby, bye.

[Advertisement]

RUBY:

Also in the news today...

New South Wales has become the first state to reach the vaccination milestone of 70% of the population receiving at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine. The milestone was reached on Thursday as health authorities recorded 1,288 new locally acquired cases and 7 deaths.

And the Victorian acting Chief Health Officer, Ben Cowie, has announced a reduction in the time between doses for the Astrazeneca vaccine in the state. It’s now recommended that the second dose of AstraZeneca should be six weeks after the first. Reduced from twelve weeks. The state recorded 176 new local coronavirus cases, including 93 mystery cases on Thursday.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper. It’s produced by Elle Marsh, Michelle Macklem, Kara Jensen-Mackinnon and Anu Hasbold. Our senior producer is Ruby Schwartz and our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Brian Campeau mixes the show. Our editor is Osman Faruqi. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief. Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ruby Jones - this is 7am - see you on Monday.