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From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

Last night, Josh Frydenberg delivered his last budget before the Morrison government goes to the polls.

It was a pitch to voters worried about the cost of living, with new payments and bold claims about an economic turnaround.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno on what the government is promising and what it tells us about an election that could be called in the next few days.
It’s Wednesday, March 30.

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RUBY:

Paul, last night, Josh Frydenberg delivered his fourth budget, so tell me about the state of the economy, as the Treasurer put it, and then after that we'll get to what's actually in the budget itself.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Mr Speaker, I move that this bill be read a second time.”

PAUL:

“Well, the Treasurer has started off setting the scene. Treasurers tend to do this at the beginning of their budget speech”

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Tonight as we gather. War rages in Europe.”

PAUL:

We're still in a pandemic which wouldn't be news to anybody.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“The global pandemic is not over.”

PAUL:

and we've been wrecked by floods, he told us.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Devastating floods have battered our communities. We live in uncertain times.”

PAUL:

He also reminded us that we've suffered the worst shock since the Great Depression.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“We have overcome the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression”

PAUL:

and that's thanks to the two year pandemic lockdowns and disruption to business and supply chains.
But the treasurer assured us we're still doing better than the rest of the world.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Our recovery leads the world. Faster and stronger than the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Canada and Japan.”

PAUL:

There are more jobs now than there were before the pandemic, and wages, he says, are higher. But it really need a magnifying glass to see that.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“There are now nearly two million Australians more in work today than when we came to government. More women in work than ever before, and this budget will see unemployment go even lower.”

PAUL:

Unemployment is at four per cent now. That's the equal lowest for jobs in 48 years. And he said this was the most significant turnaround in a budget bottom line in more than 70 years.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“This is not luck. Our economic plan is working.”

PAUL:

And of course, this wasn't luck. This was part of his plan, his plan for the economy.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Only the Coalition can responsibly manage the budget and strengthen our nation's finances here, Mr Speaker.”

PAUL:

So I have to say all of his numbers were better than last year's forecasts and reason enough to end economic wide emergency support, he said. But there is no prospect of returning to surplus in the next four years, with debt increasing as a share of the economy and peaking in 2026.

RUBY:

Right. Okay, so let's talk about some of the specific measures that are in the budget, Paul. Could you tell me a bit more about the so-called cost of living package? Because there was the the pre-announced tax offset Paul, but there was also mention of a payment.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Mr Speaker, events abroad are pushing up the cost of living at home.”

PAUL:

Well, Frydenberg announced a temporary, targeted and responsible package which somehow manages to help a vast majority of voters.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Tonight, the Morrison government announces a new temporary, targeted and responsible cost of living package to ease these pressures here.”

PAUL:

Fuel excise will be cut in half for the next six months.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Australians will save 22 cents a litre every time they fill up here.”

PAUL:

The package includes a new one off top up for the low and middle income tax offset, giving 10 million voters up to $1500 in relief.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Individuals already receiving the low and middle income tax offset will now receive up to $1500 and couples up to $3000 from the first of July this year.”

PAUL:

And six million Australians - pensioners, veterans and others eligible for income support - will get a new one off $250 cost of living payment.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Pensioners, carers, veterans, jobseekers, eligible self-funded retirees and concession card holders will benefit.”

PAUL:

And that payment should be in their pockets by the end of April, just before they all go and vote in May.

RUBY:

Okay, so that's the immediate appeal to the hip pocket, Paul. But what about other projects in the budget? What else was there?

PAUL:

Well, the Treasurer went through a list of mega spending projects and infrastructure.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Our record $120 billion infrastructure pipeline”

PAUL:

The regions.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“A new $2 billion regional accelerator program”

PAUL:

women's health and safety

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“With more than $2 billion of measures to improve the safety, health and economic security of women.”

PAUL:

and mental health.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Last year's budget saw a landmark $2.3 billion investment in mental health and suicide prevention. And tonight we build on that commitment.”

PAUL:

The environment, energy and net zero emissions did get a mention

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Australia is on the pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050…”

PAUL:

with the claim Australia is quote “playing its part in responding to the critical global challenge of climate change

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Technology, not taxes will get us there”

PAUL:

But there was nothing new or additional to bolster that claim. People with disability were mentioned with the claim that under the Coalition, the National Disability Insurance Scheme will always be fully funded, but we really do need more clarity on what he means by that.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“In this budget, NDIS funding grows in every year and under the Coalition, the NDIS will always be fully funded.”

PAUL:

It's the same story with care for older Australians. There's a seventeen point seven billion dollars to be spent over five years, but there was no mention of boosting the wages of care workers.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“In last year's budget. I outlined a new five year, seventeen point seven billion dollars plan for the sector with new home care packages.”

PAUL:

The Treasurer spent more time talking about spending on defence and national security, with a mammoth commitment to $270 billion, but that was over 10 years.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“The world is less stable and we must invest more in the defence of our nation. This is what we are doing after those opposite allowed defence spending to fall to its lowest level since 1938. We have put in place a 10 year defence capability plan worth more than 270 billion dollars, supporting more than 100,000 jobs. Hobart Class Air Warfare Destroyers…”

PAUL:

His parting warning to Australians in these challenging times was now is not the time to change course, but rather this is the time to stick to our plan.

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“This is a time to stick to our plan, a plan for a stronger economy and a stronger future. We will deliver.”

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

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Archival Tape -- Speaker 1:

“Tonight, there is more than $8 billion in cash heading your way-…”

Archival Tape -- Speaker 2:

“The question is whether the government has the balance right between being economically responsible and politically appealing-…”

Archival Tape -- Speaker 3:

“Experts are questioning if the money being spent will lead to productivity gains and wages growth-...”

Archival Tape -- Speaker 4:

“So the cost of living tied to the cost of winning this election coming up-...”

Archival Tape -- Speaker 5:

“So how will it be judged? Will it turn around voter sentiment?...”

RUBY:

Paul, how do you think this budget is going to land with voters?

PAUL:

Well, look, history tells us, even going back to 2007 with John Howard and Peter Costello's last cash splash budget, that voters are quite cynical about budgets that are released literally on the eve of an election to cover the sorts of things they've been feeling in terms of cost of living and other issues, at least for the last nine years.
So I think that from that point of view, this budget will be particularly underwhelming because, you know, voters, they can take the money and they can still run to the alternative if they feel that really, they haven't been getting as much from this government as they expected or that was promised.

There's plenty to argue that what they've done tonight is a Band-Aid and not a solution.

RUBY:

Hmm. You were there in the budget lock up all afternoon going over the papers. Was there anything in there - in the budget - that Josh Frydenberg didn't point to in his speech?

PAUL:

Well, if you really do care about climate change and catastrophic weather events, there really was nothing new. There was no rabbit out of the hat saying, ‘We realise after the shocking summer we've had this summer and the one we had back in 2019, we need to do more.’

So no new emission targets and nothing to get there.

Also, there was nothing to bring forward the need to electrify our transport, nothing to bring forward more electric vehicles on our roads. So that's where I think it was a terribly disappointing budget for the enormous amount that it didn't do to meet the needs that voters see need to be met.

RUBY:

OK. And so what does the budget then say to you about how the upcoming election is going to play out, Paul? Do you get a sense of what the Morrison government is going to be running on?

PAUL:

Well, the Morrison government is certainly going to be running on the economy. It will point to the big figures that do show improvement, especially in unemployment, and it will be saying and claiming all the credit for these bigger figures.

It won't be actually reminding us that China, our biggest customer, was paying enormous prices for our commodities, as were other customers, which went a long way to giving the rosier figures we saw in the budget speech.

Nor will he accept that if, if because of closing the international borders, there were more jobs available for the locals. And that meant more people were in work, he won't point to any of that. He'll claim all the credit and say that if we weren't there, this wouldn't have happened, which is clearly not true.

So we've got to see, you know, a whole debate over that. But I think also we will then see from the government, particularly that you can't trust the alternative because the alternative is inexperienced and it's Anthony Albanese.

RUBY:

And it's a tough question. I know Paul. But after going through the budget papers, what is your best guess for when the election is going to be called?

PAUL:

Well, the view in the lock up was that it could even be called this weekend and if not this weekend, the following weekend for either the first or second Saturday in May. So it's not far away. Not too many sleeps away, Ruby, before we are all into fair dinkum to use an Australian expression campaign mode.

RUBY:

Paul, thank you so much for your time.

PAUL:

Thank you, Ruby, bye.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today:

Warnings and evacuation orders are in place for areas across the NSW Northern Rivers region as rain continues to fall in already flood damaged communities.

The NSW State Emergency Service issued evacuations warnings including for Lismore’s CBD and Coraki.

Northern Rivers residents are facing their second major flood in a month.

**

And in a late night speech in the parliament, Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells has said Scott Morrison is “unfit to be prime minister” and that immigration minister Alex Hawke has engaged in “corrupt” behaviour over preselections.

She said Morrison was a bully with no moral compass and that “the fish stinks from the head”.

Fierravanti-Wells has recently been moved down the senate ticket and is unlikely to hold her seat at the election.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am, see you tomorrow.