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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones and this is 7am.

This week China tried to sign up 10 pacific nations to a new regional security pact.

Pacific leaders walked away from the deal – but just for now, and Chinese diplomats are hopeful they’ll get the deal done eventually.

If it happens, it would be another huge shift away from Australia by Pacific leaders.

So what is China offering? How did Australia lose the trust of our neighbours? And if China’s influence grows in the South Pacific what does it mean for us?

Today, world editor for The Saturday Paper, Jonathan Pearlman, on the race to make deals in the South Pacific.

It Wednesday, June 1.

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RUBY:

Jonathan, when we look at Australia's position within our region, if we look at our relationships with our neighbours in the Pacific, how precarious would you say the situation is right now?

JONATHAN:

Well, I think it's more precarious than Australia has realised now. Australia has tended to take the Pacific for granted over the years and I think we're seeing the consequences of that. You know, Australia has been a huge donor to the region and it has strong historical ties to the region. But as often happens when you have a large power dealing with small states, the larger power and this was Australia and it's unusual for Australia to think of itself as a large power, but Australia really thought it could dictate the terms of the relationship and then suddenly something changed, which was that a new power. China has risen and has begun to reach out to these states. And so the relationship now between Australia and the Pacific states has changed and this now is a pivotal moment for Australia.

RUBY:

And so what exactly is China doing then, Jonathan? Is its relationship with the South Pacific changing?

JONATHAN:

Yes. So China's been trying to expand its influence in the region and not just in the South Pacific. This has been happening globally. China is the biggest trading nation in the world and China is trying to translate those commercial ties into greater strategic influence.

As China tries to shore up naval access, trade access in the Pacific to ensure that its shipping routes are free. And so China has obvious interests in that region. So China has begun to offer all sorts of arrangements with states in the Pacific. The first we saw was with the Solomon Islands.

Archival Tape -- News:

“We're taking a closer look at dev elopments in the South Pacific today, specifically the Solomon Islands. It is planning a security deal with China.”

JONATHAN:

Where Solomon Islands signed a wide ranging security pact with Beijing.

Archival Tape -- News:

“And the idea of Chinese warships based less than 2000 kilometres off the Australian coast off its northeast, has set alarm bells ringing.”

JONATHAN:

And since that deal, we've seen Samoa sign a cooperation pact with China.

Archival Tape -- News:

“China has signed a diplomatic deal with Samoa, heightening Western concerns. It is attempting to expand its security presence in the Pacific.”

JONATHAN:

And now China has been trying to shore up a deal with ten Pacific states. This deal will cover policing, cyber security, maritime surveillance, fishing rights.

Archival Tape -- News:

“Now there’s some speculation Beijing might have shelved it’s proposal for a sweeping security pact with with ten pacific nations but remember China plays a long game…”

JONATHAN:

And this has been driven by China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, who is now conducting a ten day tour of eight Pacific Islands.

Archival Tape -- News:

“The Chinese foreign minister has already visited the Solomon Islands and Kiribati this week. Other stops include Tonga, the Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and East Timor.”

JONATHAN:

Which is really incredible.

Archival Tape -- News:

“This comes as Chinese media have portrayed Mr. Wang's visit as offering South Pacific countries quote what the US and Australia failed to offer.”

JONATHAN:

If you think that Xi Jinping has not left China for two and a half years and suddenly we've got the foreign minister of the most populous country in the world, which has enormous interests and concerns all over the planet, and expand its foreign minister to the South Pacific Islands for ten days.

RUBY:

Mm. Okay. And so as this happens, as the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, visits these Pacific nations with paperwork in hand, with security deals on offer, what is Australia doing to try and counter that?

JONATHAN:

So the new government has tried to present a fresh face to the Pacific full.

Archival Tape -- Penny Wong:

speaking Fijian “Can I say what a pleasure it is to be back here in the Pacific, particularly as part of the new Australian Government.”

JONATHAN:

And Penny Wong, you know, she went to Tokyo with Anthony Albanese for the quad meeting and she basically just landed in Australia and turned straight around and went directly to Fiji.

Archival Tape -- Penny Wong:

“Well, this is my fourth day as Foreign Minister… and it’s my first bilateral visit as secretary general said…”

JONATHAN:

Fiji is the major power of the island states. It's an important country within the South Pacific. And Penny Wong went straight over there to try to send a message about Australia's efforts to kind of reset ties with the Pacific.

Archival Tape -- Penny Wong:

“And I've come here on day four because I wanted to say in person and in the Pacific, on behalf of the new Australian Government, how deeply we value being part of the Pacific family.”

JONATHAN:

Her speech I think was really interesting. She tried to send two messages to Fiji and to the Pacific. One is about Australia now adopting a new plan on climate change and really trying to take climate policy more seriously.

Archival Tape -- Penny Wong:

“I was Australia's first ever climate minister and I know the imperative we all share to take serious action to reduce emissions and transform our economies.”

JONATHAN:

And this has been a huge area of contention between Australia and the Pacific states.

Archival Tape -- Penny Wong:

“I understand that climate change isn't an abstract threat. It's a present and existential one.”

JONATHAN:

But I think climate division between Australia and the Pacific has sort of affected the other major problem that Australia has had with Pacific states, which is that Pacific states feel like they've been taken for granted.
The climate inaction on the previous government's part really struck a double blow to relations between Australia and the Pacific. And I think Penny Wong's speech was really trying to address that, to say we're changing our approach to climate, but we are also genuinely listening.

So we do have a new government that is desperately trying to reset ties with the Pacific, but the big question now is whether that is going to be too late.

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Jonathan, I wonder what your thoughts are on how we arrived in this situation, how we reached the point where the Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, is going to try and personally convince our Pacific neighbours and win back their support. I suppose what I'm really asking is, how did we lose them in the first place?

JONATHAN:

Well I think one big change that's occurred is that China has risen into really a global superpower with increasing interests all over the region. And so China, in a sense, is able to present itself as a new strategic option for Pacific states, as a new strategic partner. So that's really one big change. And there's not that much that Australia can can do about that. But Australia's handling of that has not always been effective.
Firstly, Australia has tended to take the Pacific states for granted.

Archival Tape -- Joe Hockey:

“Since coming to office, we have carefully and methodically looked at all areas of government spending.”

JONATHAN:

Then we saw big cuts in foreign aid, beginning with the Abbott government.

Archival Tape -- Joe Hockey:

“The government has decided to reduce the growth in our foreign aid budget to save $7.9 billion over five years.”

JONATHAN:

which was not well received in Pacific states. And, you know, affected Australia's ability to support those states.

Archival Tape -- Joe Hockey:

“The government has also decided to abolish over 230 bureaucratic programmes.”

JONATHAN:

And then we've seen climate change really interfering with Australia's relations with the Pacific states. Now eventually the Government became aware of this problem and it really started with reports of a potential Chinese defence base in Vanuatu that was really the catalyst for Canberra seeming to wake up to this.
And so we saw the Pacific step up, which was really Scott Morrison's kind of signature foreign policy, and suddenly Australia started to increase aid in the Pacific. Scott Morrison started to visit countries like Vanuatu where Australian leaders had not been for for decades and the Pacific step up was was well received. Pacific leaders welcomed this renewed engagement from Australia, but the difficulty was that climate change and the concerns of low lying states and island states that it really on the frontline of climate change felt like Scott Morrison was just not listening to them. And so this really set back and kind of stymied efforts by the Coalition to achieve this step up and to improve its relations with the Pacific.

RUBY:

And so is there still any resentment still lingering about the way Australia has treated these countries in the past Jonathan? And does that history mean that they might be more likely to welcome more Chinese involvement, or is there skepticism in the Pacific about what China’s motives might be?

JONATHAN:

I think that's a really important point. It's not as though Pacific states are all waiting with open arms for China to walk in. There are strong concerns about how China does business in the region. It doesn't operate transparently with a lot of its funding and with it with a lot of its commercial activities. It shuts down journalists in the region.

You know, these are states which try to encourage, you know, open, free democracy. And China comes in and doesn't allow local journalists to press conferences. So these countries are not all waiting for China, but they will need to be convinced that this new government is setting a new tone and direction for the relationship, that its climate policies are going to be strong enough, that it's going to take a role in the global climate leadership, along with the Pacific states, which have really led action for international climate change policies. And it will need to be convinced that Australia is now is now listening to it.

I thought it was really interesting that after Penny Wong visited Fiji, its Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, sent a tweet with a photo of himself shaking hands with Penny Wong and he said Fiji is not anyone's backyard. We are a part of a Pacific family and our greatest concern isn't geopolitics, it's climate change. And I think that's going to really need to guide Australia's response to the region that Australia's main concern may be geopolitics and its rivalry with China, but that is not the main concern of the Pacific island states and that message is going to have to be this kind of underlying message that drives Australia's approach to the region now.

RUBY:

Mm. And what if Australia's approach to the region doesn't work, Jonathan? What happens if these Pacific nations actually do decide to partner with China to to sign these deals?

JONATHAN:

If you listen to security analysts, they will say that that would be one of the gravest security threats that Australia has faced since the Second World War.

The Northern Maritime approaches to Australia really lead directly to our east coast where our cities are. And you know, Australia's approach to defending itself has always been based on controlling those maritime approaches. Now if China were able to really get a strong foothold there, that would pose real security threats. So it would be very grave for Australia and that's why the Government is taking this so seriously.

RUBY:

Okay, Jonathan, thank you so much for your time.

JONATHAN:

Thanks Ruby

RUBY:

Pacific Island countries have now agreed NOT to sign a region-wide trade and security deal with China.

However, China has been signing smaller bilateral agreements with individual nations during Wang Yi’s tour of the region.

After pacific island countries decided NOT to sign a regional security pact with China, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi said the nations had agreed on five areas of cooperation, but further discussions were needed.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today

Labor has claimed the seat of Gilmore for their candidate Fiona Phillips, which would extend their majority to 77 seats.

With more than 88 per cent of the vote counted, the incumbent Ms Phillips said the party was confident it would retain her seat.

**

And the CEO of Guide Dogs Victoria, Karen Hayes, has resigned.

Hayes was controversially featured in a flier and a promotional video, backing Josh Frydenberg as the member for Kooyong, before the election.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am, see you tomorrow.