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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

China has a message for Australia: be quiet and take the trade money.

In a chilling speech China’s ambassador to Australia laid out China’s aims with startling honesty, including that China would pursue what he called ‘reunification’ with Taiwan at any cost.

The reason he was sending that message has everything to do with US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan, which raised the threat of conflict in the region.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno, on China’s message to Australia.
It’s Friday, August 12.

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RUBY:

Paul, last week, Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, and what followed was essentially an international crisis over China. There were all these questions: could Taiwan be a trigger for war? Would Australia be drawn into that war? What is the New Labor government's position on Taiwan? So could you just explain to me how one visit led to so much international concern?

PAUL:

Well, Nancy Pelosi is the speaker of the House of Representatives in the United States. She's number three in the pecking order after the president and the vice president and she was on tour to meet with partners of the US in Asia. She didn't announce it, but there was rampant speculation she was going to head to Taiwan as well, which would make her the highest ranking member of the US government to visit there in 25 years.

Archival tape -- News Presenter 1:

“The speaker of the House on a trip to Asia right now, and Taiwanese media is reporting that Speaker Pelosi will be visiting tomorrow…”

PAUL:

And whaddayaknow…

Archival tape -- News Presenter 2:

“Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi walking down the steps of her official US government aeroplane, and in just a second here…will set foot on Taiwanese territory. The first time a US Speaker of the House has visited Taiwan since 1997…”

PAUL:

Now, what makes Beijing particularly sensitive to all of this is that China claims Taiwan is a province. Beijing says it's always been and claims the democratic government in Taiwan is essentially a breakaway provincial government.

Archival tape -- National Press Club host:

“Our guest today is His Excellency Xiao Qian, ambassador of the People's Republic of China, with his address to the National Press Club of Australia.”

PAUL:

And on Wednesday in Canberra, the Chinese ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, spoke at the National Press Club.

Archival tape -- Xiao Qian:

“If we, if every country put the one-China policy into practise, with sincerity, with no compromise, it’s going to guarantee the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”

PAUL:

And said China would pursue what he called reunification with Taiwan at any cost.

Archival tape -- Xiao Qian:

“It’s an issue of reunification, complete reunification, and our issue of Taiwan coming back to the motherland…”

RUBY:

It was quite a speech, Paul.

PAUL:

It certainly was. The trouble is, the Taiwanese people don't want it. The most recent polling shows less than 10% of them want to go into any sort of political union with mainland China in the future.

Archival tape -- Xiao Qian:

“The visit by Speaker Pelosi to the Taiwan region is exactly the reason that has caused the violation of the commitments by the US government…”

PAUL:

Beijing perceived Pelosi's visit as support for the Taiwanese government and its claim to be an independent country. Well, this was provocation for Beijing, which saw the visit as breaking America's commitment to the, quote, one-China policy. And that was the basis for establishing diplomatic relations in 1972. The US doesn't recognise Taiwan as a separate country and by the way, neither does Australia. And the Chinese Government showed how seriously it takes this.

Archival tape -- News Presenter 3:

“Right. Let's go to the growing tensions between China and Taiwan. Now, China's military exercises continued on Sunday morning in close proximity to Taiwan-...”

Archival tape -- News Presenter 4:

“China has been amassing large formations of planes and ships all around Taiwan and now the shooting has started. So these are live fire drills.”

PAUL:

It responded to the visit with four days of military exercises which blockaded the main island of Taiwan.

Archival tape -- [missiles launching]

Archival tape -- News Presenter 5:

“China has fired multiple ballistic missiles during excessive military exercises in the air and the sea encircling Taiwan.”

PAUL:

It fired missiles across it. And international observers say it was wargaming a land invasion of the island.

RUBY:

And Paul, this is all taking place in our region. So what is the risk of Australia being drawn into a potential conflict over Taiwan?

PAUL:

Well Ruby that's yet to be seen, but we can read a lot into how the new government is engaging with China's outrage.

Archival tape -- Richard Marles:

“Making sure that we have the most potent defence force that we can have is absolutely a top priority for the Government, there's no doubt about that.”

PAUL:

Defence Minister Richard Marles is saying Australia won't be cowed by any bullying on Beijing's part.

Archival tape -- Richard Marles:

“China has engaged in the biggest military build up that we've seen since the end of the Second World War, and that that's the fundamental fact which shapes the strategic circumstances of the region and obviously is a huge part of the strategic circumstances that we face as a nation.”

PAUL:

But Foreign Minister Penny Wong is particularly alert to what's at stake since assuming the role. She's toned down Australia's language while at the same time stating clearly our values and position.

RUBY:

That's quite a tightrope to be walking, isn't it? How is Penny Wong going at that?

PAUL:

Well, at the East Asian summit in Phnom Penh at the end of last week, Wong said at a corner of a conference table next to her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, and listened intently as he upbraided the other ministers on the situation with Taiwan. Yi’s comments - I'm told they were more like a lecture - were a history lesson spelling out what Beijing sees as its legitimate claim to the democratically governed island President Xi Jinping has vowed to bring under his control. And when Wong was back in Canberra, she reiterated it was essential for regional stability that the temperature is lowered and calm is restored.

Archival tape -- Penny Wong:

“Australia continues to urge restraint. Australia continues to urge de-escalation.”

PAUL:

And she said Pelosi's visit was a matter for the United States and she certainly didn't endorse it.

Archival tape -- Penny Wong:

“The region is concerned about escalation, the region is concerned about the risk of conflict. Now, Australia's national interests haven't changed…”

PAUL:

But Australia is in a fraught position. We're caught between our biggest trading partner and our biggest ally. Something Ambassador Xiao took delight in reminding Australians of during his Press Club speech. He said this year marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations. Two way trade has grown from 100 million USD a year to $207 billion in 2021. And you know, Ruby, that puts a very expensive price tag on Australia's national interest in all of this and definitely demands mature and nuanced diplomacy.

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Paul, we've been talking about how Australian politicians have been reacting to the latest test in our relationship with China. How divisive is this becoming? What has the opposition, what has Peter Dutton been saying? Because in the past we've heard some pretty strident stuff from him on China.

PAUL:

Well, Australia has a history of being bipartisan when it comes to foreign policy. But Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is putting extreme strain on that when it comes to dealing with China.

Archival tape -- Peter Dutton:

“I want to make sure that we continue to have peace in our region and as we've seen in the Ukraine, if you don't call out these dictators, if you don't call that somebody like President Putin or President Xi, if we don't shine a light on the bad behaviour, we will see in Taiwan what we're seeing in the Ukraine at the moment and I don't want that…”

PAUL:

Dutton praised Nancy Pelosi, saying of course she should have gone and likened it to her visiting Tokyo or any other city in Asia. He said Beijing's reaction was over the top. Now, while that's true, the opposition leader surely can't be this oblivious to Pelosi's stated, provocative purpose of showing solidarity with Taiwan against Beijing. And even US President Joe Biden is on the record, preferring she didn't make the trip. But Dutton has returned to his pre-election anti-China rhetoric and I'm told party strategists are now asking him to tone it down. If he's working on that, he's got a way to go.

Archival tape -- Peter Dutton:

“We're living in a period similar to the 1930s, and an approach of appeasement doesn't work. And that's not a slight on the Russian people…”

PAUL:

This week the Opposition Leader likened China's behaviour and Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the 1930s which saw the rise of lethal fascism in Europe and militant imperialism in Japan. He said, quote, We're not going to cower. We're not going to appease.

Archival tape -- Peter Dutton:

“We're not going to cower. We're not going to appease. We're going to call out bad behaviour…”

PAUL:

But that's using loaded language and it demeans any diplomatic nuance. Let me explain, the phrase. Appeasement is a historic reference to the 1930s British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain pursued what he called an appeasement policy with Nazi Germany. Declaring peace in our time. After signing an agreement with Hitler in 1938, only to see the outbreak of World War Two a year later.

RUBY:

Hmm. Okay. So is he wrong to use that analogy then, Paul, what is the key difference between then and now?

PAUL:

Well, if the lesson of 1938 is to say you can have no good faith dealings with Beijing, then you must believe you have the means to take on and defeat China in any armed confrontation. Now, strategic experts like Professor Hugh White believe even the United States would not win a war with China. So where that would leave Australia and goes without saying. And if such a scenario was to occur, there'd be no winners. White concludes it would inevitably lead to a nuclear confrontation.

RUBY:

Okay, so that kind of strong talk might not be practical, but what do we do about China and its more aggressive posture? Because we have to have some kind of response if we're going to avoid those kind of scenarios.

PAUL:

Yeah, well, some might say it should be economic. But Alan Kohler in the New Daily concluded that if we ever resorted to putting serious trade sanctions on Beijing like we have on Russia, we would suffer enormous economic damage. The sabre rattling from China hawks like Dutton and elements of the defence policy establishment in Canberra needs a reality check, as Penny Wong points out. Our biggest immediate threat is provoking situations that could trigger fatal miscalculations. And Defence Minister Richard Marles says a key component to countering China's military build-up is to address our own defence gaps. The glaring one is submarines. After the debacle of the last government, we're left with an ageing fleet and we're years away from getting new ones.

Archival tape -- Richard Marles:

“We need to have an open mind about whatever needs to be done in terms of filling whatever capability gap arises.”

PAUL:

Marles has left open the option of buying submarines off the shelf from overseas to bridge the 20 year gap before the projected arrival of the first nuclear submarines. Now, where they come from will be announced in March next year.

Archival tape -- Richard Marles:

“It is really important that we have an evolving submarine capability from this day in 2022 through until whenever the first of the nuclear propelled submarines comes in the water.”

PAUL:

The Defence Minister says he'll be. Guided in the first instance by whatever needs to be done to fill the gap as quickly as possible. But he says it's really important we have an evolving submarine capability from now.

Archival tape -- Peter Dutton:

“It's absolutely essential as an island nation that we have a submarine fleet, we have a service fleet.”

PAUL:

Peter Dutton on Adelaide Radio had the same message, endorsing any plan that may see some submarines fully imported while expanded domestic manufacturing is developed.

Archival tape -- Peter Dutton:

“The most important priority, particularly given where China is at the moment, is that we achieve the capability as quickly as possible. And so I support the position. Now the new Defence Minister, Richard Marles…”

PAUL:

Ruby, ironically the French are without doubt in the best position to fill the short term submarine manufacturing need in Australia. They were developing those plans for five years before Dutton and former prime minister Scott Morrison pulled the plug.

RUBY:

Okay, so we've got both sides already pointing fingers at each other over China. What chance do we have then of our leaders coming up with some sort of unified approach to this challenge?

PAUL:

Well, I think it's the only chance we've got for Australia getting anywhere. And I notice in his interviews later in the week, Peter Dutton seemed to be toning down his language and trying to get closer to the position taken by Penny Wong. I think it's dawning on him that the way he was going was counterproductive. And from that point of view I think everyone would agree the lead being taken here by Albanese and Wong is really the only option we've got.

RUBY:

Paul, thank you so much for your time.

PAUL:

Thank you Ruby, bye.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today,

The Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide has delivered its interim report, which includes the finding that Australia’s veteran compensation system is so complicated that it damages the mental health of veterans, and can be a factor in veteran suicides.

According to the Veteran Affairs Minister, over the last 20 years more Australian service members have died by suicide than from military operations.

And engineers for Qantas and Jetstar have voted to take industrial action during pay negotiations with the airlines. Negotiations began in 2019, were paused during the pandemic, and resumed late last year.

The union action was agreed upon by 90 percent of workers, and could include a refusal to work overtime and work stoppages as early as Monday.

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7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Alex Gow, Alex Tighe, Zoltan Fecso,
and Rachael Bongiorno.

Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Brian Campeau mixes the show.
Our editor is Scott Mitchell.
Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am, see you next week.

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