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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

We learned this week that US President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, will accept a plea deal on federal tax crimes.

With the 2024 presidential campaigns already underway, Republicans leapt on the deal calling it evidence of nepotism and corruption – none more loudly than Donald Trump.

Trump, of course, is facing a much more lengthy federal indictment – the 37 charges against him could mean a prison sentence running several decades if he’s found guilty at his upcoming trial.

Today, Editor of Australian Foreign Affairs, Jonathan Pearlman, on how the race to be the next president of the United States, is suddenly about who has committed what crimes.

It’s Friday, June 23.

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Archival tape – Donald Trump:

“I'm an innocent man. We will prove that again. Seven years of proving it, and here we go again. Very unfair.“

RUBY

Jonathan, let's begin by talking about Donald Trump's appearance last week in a court in Miami, where he was facing charges under America's Espionage Act. Tell me about what happened?

JONATHAN:

So, Trump recently became the first former president to ever face criminal charges over an alleged hush payment to cover up an alleged affair that he had. And he's now become the first former president to be charged twice. He is facing 37 felony charges relating to his handling of classified documents.

Archival tape – Reporter 1:

“History was made here at the Miami Federal Courthouse on Tuesday when former President, Donald Trump, became the first ever former president to be arraigned on federal criminal charges.”

Archival tape – Reporter 2:

“In court, Trump was subdued, his arms crossed, sitting hunched over, his shoulders rolled forward, and he never uttered a word.“

JONATHAN:

Inside the court, he sat there the entire time with his arms folded, scowling. And his lawyer, Todd Blanche, is also representing him in the hush money case in New York. And the only reason why Todd Blanche was there representing him in the courtroom is because apparently Trump has had a lot of difficulties finding lawyers to represent him, presumably because the charges are serious and the evidence against him is serious in this case.

Archival tape – Reporter 3:

“A shake-up of former President Trump's legal team after he was indicted on federal charges. Sources tell ABC News two of Trump's attorneys have now resigned.”

JONATHAN:

And Trump could be facing the charges very soon. A court date has now been set for August 14. And the judge in the case clearly wants to have the case dealt with swiftly.

RUBY:

Okay. And so these charges, the 37 felony charges that Trump is facing in Miami, they relate to classified documents that he, or someone who works for him, took to Mar-a-Lago and kept long after Trump had lost the presidency. So, what do we know about what these documents contain, and how the former president has handled them?

JONATHAN:

Yes, So it's a long indictment. But what Trump is alleged to have done, is that when he left office and returned to his home in Mar-a-Lago, he took a whole lot of documents with him. And it's important to remember that his residence is also a private member's club. It has functions, it's often filled with people. So, you know, this is not a case in which Trump has stored these documents in any sort of secure or inaccessible location. He's alleged to have had a whole bunch of documents relating to military secrets, nuclear secrets, intelligence secrets. Allegedly, the documents involved details of a plan to attack Iran. Details about how to defend America's nuclear capabilities. Details about other countries and allies of America's military capabilities. And the indictment says that Trump knew full well that this information was classified. And images from the indictment show that Trump appears to have kept classified boxes of documents next to a guitar at his home, in a ballroom, in a shower, in a bathroom. These images and the evidence so far suggests that they were really not handled with any sort of care at all, given the kind of information that was in these documents. So these are charges that involve the Espionage Act, involved conspiring to obstruct justice, to withhold government documents, scheming to conceal information from a grand jury, and causing false statements to be made to the government. So there's a pile of evidence relating to these charges. There's an audiotape of a conversation that Trump had in 2021, where he talks about keeping secret military information that he had not declassified.

Archival tape – Reporter 4:

“Sources tell us that on this tape Trump says he has a classified Pentagon document describing a possible attack on Iran, we’re also told that you can hear a paper rustling, it appears he might be waving something around.”

JONATHAN:

So the case against Trump does appear to be strong.

RUBY:

Right - a strong case, but Trump is of course pleading not guilty. So tell me how he is defending himself? Once he left court what does he say about the charges?

JONATHAN:

Yes. So in typical fashion, really, Trump and his supporters are painting him as a victim of what he has called the ‘boxes hoax’. He's called it a Marxist plot. And he's claimed that he is being politically persecuted by President Biden, and that these charges are all based on political motivations.

Straight after his court appearance in Miami, he went to a diner. It was packed with his supporters and it's just before his birthday and they presented him with a cake and sang a song.

Archival tape – Donald Trump:

“Some birthday, some birthday.”

JONATHAN:

Apparently he offered to pay for everyone's food.

Archival tape – Donald Trump:

“Are you ready? Are you ready? Food for everyone!”

JONATHAN:

But then left without picking up the tab.

He then went straight to his golf club in New Jersey and gave a speech to his supporters. And there he gave his defence, really. And claimed that whatever documents the President decides to take with him, he has the right.

Archival tape – Donald Trump:

“He has the right to do so. It's an absolute right. This is the law.”

JONATHAN:

The law clearly states otherwise. He has claimed that he will carry out his own political persecutions, if he's elected president at the next election in 2024, that he would go after Joe Biden. He said that he would appoint a special prosecutor to try to lay charges against Biden.

Archival tape – Donald Trump:

“A real special prosecutor to go after the most corrupt President in the history of the United States of America, Joe Biden and the entire Biden crime family.”

JONATHAN:

Crowds started to call out “lock him up.”

Archival tape – Crowd:

“Lock him up”

JONATHAN:

So his supporters are still clearly onside.

RUBY:

And it is unsurprising, I suppose, that Trump is trying to use some of the charges against him and incorporate those into his campaign to encourage his supporters. And I suppose it's also unsurprising that he's taking aim at Biden and the Biden family, as part of his campaign.

But on that, something interesting has happened that Joe Biden's son, Hunter, we've just heard that he is actually entering into a plea deal with federal prosecutors and admitting guilt to federal crimes. So tell me what we know about that.

JONATHAN:

Yes, that's right. So just as Trump is starting to face these charges, Joe Biden's son, Hunter, has entered into a plea deal and admitted guilt to federal crimes. Which is obviously, you know, immediately become ammunition for the Republican Party. And this plea deal is being used to bolster Trump's line of attack, that the Biden's are criminals and that Trump is being unfairly targeted.

And clearly, Trump and his supporters are hoping that the Hunter Biden case will, sort of, muddy the waters and detract attention from the charges that Trump is now facing.

RUBY:

We’ll be back in a moment

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Archival tape – Reporter 5:

“So here is the breaking news regarding the president's son, Hunter. Hunter Biden apparently has reached a tentative deal with federal prosecutors to plead guilty to two minor tax crimes, and admit to the facts of a gun charge under terms that would likely keep him out of jail.”

RUBY:

Jonathan, can you tell me more about the case against Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden? What is Hunter admitting to having done?

JONATHAN:

Yes. Hunter Biden has been a sort of troubled son for Joe Biden and the Biden family. He has struggled with alcohol and crack cocaine addiction for years. And all this has played out very publicly. He's had all sorts of business dealings in Ukraine and China, which have come under question. And so the latest on all this is that Hunter has now been charged with two misdemeanour tax crimes. After a five year investigation.

This goes back to 2018, when Trump as president appointed an attorney, David Weiss, to investigate Hunter Biden's activities, his role in foreign businesses, His seat on the board of Ukrainian Energy Company.

Archival tape – Reporter 6:

“A U.S. attorney in Delaware has launched an investigation into Hunter Biden.”

Archival tape – Reporter 7:

“The Justice Department's investigation centres on potential tax fraud crimes and had been going on at least a year before the president elect announced his candidacy.”

JONATHAN:

Trump claimed for years that there was some corruption involving Hunter and this Ukrainian company.

Archival tape – Donald Trump:

“What his son did is a disgrace. The son took money from Ukraine. The son took money from China. A lot of money from China.”

JONATHAN:

The claims against Hunter Biden have led to all sorts of conspiracy theories against him, all sorts of theories about this laptop of Hunter Biden that emerged that he left at a repair shop. And what apparently contains all sorts of evidence of corruption involving Hunter Biden, and Joe Biden, and the Biden family.

Archival tape – Donald Trump:

"'Dad we have a problem. I left my laptop at the repair shop'. And Joe looks at him and says, What's on it, son? What's on it? And Hunter looks back and he says, 'every single crime that you've ever committed Dad.'”

JONATHAN:

This probe into Hunter Biden went on for years, and ultimately ended up with two main charges against him. Really, there was failure to pay income taxes on time, and a charge relating to him lying for an application to get a gun. He apparently claimed on this application that he wasn't using drugs. In fact, his girlfriend at the time, threw out the gun a couple of weeks after he got it. So what we now know is that Hunter has entered into a plea deal and will probably avoid jail time, but it's unlikely to end there. The Republicans are furious, they’re claiming double standards, that, you know, Trump is in court facing serious charges in court, while Hunter Biden is going to avoid jail time if.

Archival tape – Kevin McCarthy:

“If you are the president's leading political opponent. DOJ tries to literally put you in jail and give you prison time, if you are the president's son. You get a sweetheart deal.”

JONATHAN:

Republicans in Congress have already started to talk about further investigations into Hunter Biden. So, again, this is really being used by Trump and his supporters to deflect allegations against Trump.

RUBY:

How damaging is it likely to be to the president's re-election campaign, if we think about it, I suppose, in the bigger context of what's going on politically in the U.S. and the partisan divide that we're seeing.

JONATHAN:

Yeah, it's an interesting question. The Hunter Biden case is unlikely to shift voters' minds. And there is such, as you said, deep partisanship in America at the moment, that people have made up their minds about Hunter Biden and his, you know, apparent history of crime and corruption are going to be unmoved by this plea deal. On the other side, those who believe that these really were minor, very minor offences involving Hunter Biden, and that the investigations into him have really been political, and attempts to undermine Joe Biden are also likely to be unmoved because at the moment what we know is that at least 30% of Republicans are unwavering Trump supporters. He's miles ahead in the polls against other Republican candidates. A recent Reuters Ipsos poll found that 81% of Republicans believe that the charges against Trump are politically motivated, and, you know, Trump has quickly seized on these latest charges to enter a new round of fundraising. He's apparently raised already $7 million. So what we're left with, I think, is, again, just, deeply divided American public in which, you know, these latest cases are going to further entrench the divide as we start to prepare for a new round of Republican primaries and then another American election.

RUBY:

Okay. So it seems almost certain then that we will see a contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024, and by then Trump will be 78 years old. Biden will be even older, he'll be 81. So what does it say to you that the US appears to have no other option than to re-prosecute this fight, that American politics still seems to be so captured by the aftermath of Trump's presidency, and we’re not instead seeing some sort of articulation of a new, fresh future for the country?

JONATHAN:

Yeah, it's remarkable really, that we're seeing history play out again. One of the things that this shows is the difficulty of being a serious presidential contender in the US. You know, for decades we had the Bush Clinton years where, you know, Bush dominated the Republicans, George H. Bush, George W. Bush, and then Jeb Bush, who was expected to take the 2016 primaries. And then we had Bill and Hillary Clinton on the other side. And, you know, in some ways, Barack Obama was an anomaly, but it was also, I think, a reaction to this. I mean, clearly, there was just growing public discontent with this same cycle of Bush, Clinton, and familiar faces. And Obama was seen as a kind of fresh alternative to that. But we're now locked back into this cycle because it's difficult to be a presidential contender. It's difficult to gather the support to be seen as a viable president. I think, though, we also need to just look at both sides of the political divide separately. I think if you look at the Democrats first, they chose Biden last time to take on Trump and it proved to be the right choice. And now Biden is the incumbent. And whilst a lot of Democrats, I think, were hoping that he would serve only one term, he now, like so many leaders in the US and, you know, in Australia and elsewhere, once they're in power, find it hard to let go.

But I think what's really interesting is, is what's happening on the Republican side, because Trump may well get the candidacy. But the big question beyond that is what will happen to the Republicans after Trump?

Will they revert to being a conservative party? Or will this Trump era, this Tea Party era, of right wing insurgents having a stranglehold over the party? You know, this kind of populist streak that we've seen, will that continue? And I think that we may see signs of that in the primaries. We may see if there's any kind of strong support for a contender who represents the, you know, more establishment Republican values, or whether, you know, what we're going to see is that Trump, whether or not he wins this primaries race and then whether or not he wins the election, we may see a Republican Party that continues to operate kind of in his shadow, and that will have serious consequences, really, for the future of American politics.

RUBY:

Jonathan, thank you so much for your time.

JONATHAN:

Thanks so much, Ruby.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today…

Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, says he will announce whether RBA governor, Philip Lowe, will keep his job in July.

Lowe, who’s term officially ends in September, could be extended, or a new governor could be appointed by Chalmers.

And...

The head of the AFP, commissioner Reece Kershaw, has been accused of failing to declare a conflict of interest over his links with PwC.

Greens senator David Shoebridge says new documents reveal that Kershaw met multiple times with a "friend" who now worked for consulting firm PwC, over a contract that was awarded without public tender.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Zoltan Fecso, Cheyne Anderson, Yeo Choong, and Chris Dengate.

Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow. Our editor is Scott Mitchell. Sarah McVeigh is our head of audio. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing by Andy Elston, Travis Evans, and Atticus Bastow.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ruby Jones, see you next week.

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