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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media. I’m Ruby Jones. this is 7am.

The ascent of Donald Trump is likely to have alarming consequences for the climate. He was, after all, elected on a promise to “drill, baby, drill”.

He’s already preparing to pull out of the Paris Agreement again. This time though he could also withdraw from the underlying convention, making it much harder for any successor to change course.

Climate diplomat Thom Woodroofe was there when the Paris Agreement was signed and when Trump rescinded the first time around.

Now as COP 29 kicks off in Azerbaijan, he says all this makes it even more crucial that Australia takes a leading role in international climate negotiation.

Today, senior international fellow with the Smart Energy Council Thom Woodroofe on Donald Trump and whether global action on climate is a lost cause without the United States.

It’s Tuesday, November 12.

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RUBY:

So Thom, now that Donald Trump has been elected. What should we expect, what are the likely consequences for the climate crisis?

THOM:

Let's not make any ifs or buts about this. Trump is going to be a giant wrecking ball for the planet.

Audio Excerpt - Donald Trump:

“When I hear these people talking about global warming, that's the global warming you have to worry about. Not that the oceans are going to rise in 400 years, an eighth of an inch, and you have more sea front property. Right, If that happens. I said, is that good or bad? I said, isn't that a good thing? If I have a little property on the ocean.”

THOM:

We can expect him to seriously wind back what's called the Inflation Reduction Act, which actually was the biggest piece of climate legislation passed anywhere in the world, especially in terms of the tax credits that it provides for households to install solar panels, to improve energy efficiency and to buy electric vehicles, which even Elon Musk supports scrapping. Given that it tended to flow towards the cheaper manufacturers, Trump has even said that climate change is a massive Chinese hoax.

Audio Excerpt - Donald Trump:

“So Obama is talking about all of this with global warming and that. A lot of it's a hoax. It's a hoax. I mean, it's a moneymaking industry.”

THOM:

And whether linked to Trump or not. The conservative 2025 playbook even recommended that he axe the Environmental Protection Agency, which Ronald Reagan founded. And that does critical work, like monitoring air pollution and ridge and replacing lead pipes around the country.

So no matter which way you cut it, he is going to have a huge and profound impact in terms of what is happening on the ground in the United States.

I think the good news, though, this time around, at least, is that eight years ago when when Trump was first elected, there was a sense of infancy about some of this. And now there is a sense that a lot of the momentum that has been built up is in many ways unstoppable.

So the US absenteeism from the international climate fold will not necessarily have the same impact on the flow of investment and capital towards green projects around the rest of the world as it may have had then.

RUBY:

And you say absenteeism. How does this work? Because obviously Biden's delegates have been preparing for this cop for a long time, so they will still go. But how will the rest of the world respond? And how constrained will they be?

THOM:

That's right. I mean, the weird thing here is that for the US negotiating team in Azerbaijan, it will be situation normal in many respects. In fact, they will also have an eye on their legacy and they will be frantically behind the scenes trying to do whatever they can to lock in anything that they believe is durable and meaningful.

RUBY:

Okay. Well, let's talk a bit more about what is going to happen in COP29, which is underway now in Azerbaijan. Tell me about what it's trying to achieve, what is the stated goal?

THOM:

So this year's COP, the biggest item on the agenda, is agreeing something which in UN parlance is called the new collective Quantified goal on climate finance.

And this is effectively a promise as to how much governments around the world need to provide developing countries, including the most vulnerable countries, to help them mitigate and also adapt to the impacts they in large part have not been responsible for.

For the most vulnerable countries in the world, like those in the Pacific, they are already doing everything they can to fight climate change. Many have the most impressive renewable energy targets anywhere in the world, but they also need money to be able to adapt to the impacts as they get more intense and more frequent.

And that is why a new finance goal and particularly delivery on that new finance goal is going to be so important for those countries. I mean, when I was working for the Marshall Islands government, they were hit by a cyclone that in one night wiped 3% of their GDP. And many of these damages were also at the point for these countries had been irreversible. You can't grow the same crops anymore or fish in the same places. So you need money to be able to innovate and adapt.

RUBY:

Coming up after the break - the case for Australia to take on global climate leadership.

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RUBY:

Thom, let's talk a little more about Australia's role moving forward. How do you think we should be approaching this moment as the US walks away from its obligations?

THOM:

So Australia has put up its hand to host the 2026 COP, which will be COP 31.

We've also said we want to host this call in partnership with the Pacific and I think that needs to be more than a soundbite because it's actually an opportunity to bring the voices of the most vulnerable into the driving seat of the international process, which will play a huge part in hopefully securing their future. But most importantly, I also think beyond it being good for the planet. Hosting a cop is actually a good thing for Australia to do for its economy, geopolitically and culturally.

And to do so in harness with the Government's legislated net zero trajectory and future made in Australia policy.

The brutal reality is if we don't become a clean energy export superpower, we are facing an economic cliff of our own making as worldwide demand for fossil fuels dries up. But it also means it's an opportunity for developed countries like Australia to step up to reassure the rest of the world, to reassure the Pacific, to let them know that we are not going to follow Trump out of the door, and actually to ideally do more to step up.

RUBY:

Right, all that sounds great of course, but I have to ask how much credibility does COP have at the moment. If you look at last year in Dubai, there was this agreement to transition away from fossil fuels. However, Australia is not doing that. And globally, in the past year, the amount of fossil fuels used and export sales have continued to rise. So how much faith do you think that there is in the agreed outcomes that come from any COP at this point?

THOM:

I think you're absolutely right to say the delivery on last year's agreements has not been carried through as fast as it should have been. But I still think the fact that you've got all these countries showing up and 100 world leaders shows that there is faith and hope in this process. Yes, we have a hell of a lot more to do on our fossil fuel exports, and we need to be making that transition. By 2050, the International Energy Agency says the worldwide demand for fossil fuels will drop from about 80% at the moment to 20% in terms of its usage for energy production. And that could leave Australia absolutely high and dry if we don't transition our economy towards being one that can export clean energy. But the hope certainly at the Australian Government is that they will be able to return from Baku victorious and be able to have a full two years to be able to prepare for what is a massive opportunity at the end of 2026.

RUBY:

I just want to come back to this COP. I mean, the overall aim of all of the COPs is for states to agree and develop and share plans to address climate change. And if we take a step back and look at the big picture on that, I mean, we know that the most catastrophic effects of climate change can only be avoided if we, if we limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. Yet at present, we are not on track for that globally. And summit after summit seems to fail to curb that. And even this summit, I mean, we're talking about how to get the funds to help countries adapt to the effects of climate change now rather than stop it. So does it feel to you like we've given up on 1.5?

THOM:

I hope not. I mean, I was part of the delegation that put the 1.5 degree target on the table originally, which was the Marshall Islands government. I mean, we are now in a world in a window where every gigaton of emissions matters, where every fraction of a degree matters, and every delay for our ability to avoid the worst impacts to come matters.

Now, if you look at the science and if you look at the impact of the Trump administration withdrawing in terms of its impact, particularly on the amount of emissions that are likely now to be ploughed into the atmosphere. Yes, scientifically, it's very hard to see a pathway to keeping temperatures within 1.5 degrees.

It's also very hard to see a pathway to the goal to halve global emissions by 2030, which the science says is required to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees. Like it is a seriously big deal. So, yes, it does start to feel like those targets and safe limits are becoming out of reach.

RUBY:

Okay. So going into this cop then off the back of the election of Donald Trump, you're someone who's dedicated their life to action on climate change. You've negotiated on behalf of one of the most vulnerable countries in the past. I believe that you have small children as well. So, I mean, do you have hope? How are you feeling?

THOM:

Look, this is the worst moment that I can remember when it comes to the climate fight. And at least last time, I think that there was some hope that Trump would not succumb to his worst cleavages once in office.

But I think the other point as well is that this time around, compared to eight years ago, that clean energy transformation is more advanced than it was even with the US rolling back its efforts and exiting the Paris Agreement, it will not have the same impact on the global clean energy market as it did last time.

China is still the biggest player here and installed more renewable energy last year than the rest of the world combined. And momentum is unstoppable as it was when Trump was last elected. But this time around it's even more mature. But there is absolutely no sugarcoating that this is a kick in the guts for the planet.

But let me also say this. I think that if you are from one of the most vulnerable countries in the world, you have no choice but to have hope. As indeed probably every parent in the world also needs to have hope about this process, and you need to put your hopes in the fact that the world will be able to exponentially innovate new and cheaper technologies. You've got to have hope that the global community will hold its nerve, including in Australia, and not take a step back and instead will take a step up.

RUBY:

Thom, thank you so much for your time today.

THOM:

No worries. Thank you.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today,

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says Australia won’t be immune from possible economic fallout of Donald Trump’s re-election.

Delivering a speech to foreign policy experts, Jim Chalmers said Australia is well prepared for a Trump presidency, but warned that his tariff plans may hit Australia’s economy and trigger a short-term inflation spike.

And, former Senator and human rights official Chris Evans, has been appointed as Australia’s first anti-slavery commissioner.

The commissioner’s role will be to work with the government to target exploitative practices including human trafficking, forced labour, and forced marriages.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See you tomorrow.

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