Archival Tape -- DonaldTrump:

“And all of a sudden everything just stopped. This is a fraud on the American public, this is an embarrassment to our country, we were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.”

[Theme music starts]

RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

In a move that’s been widely condemned by both sides of politics, Donald Trump has claimed victory in the US Presidential election.

He did so before votes in key states have been declared, and while the outcome still remains in doubt.

Today, journalist Oscar Schwartz on how we got here, what drove voters, and what the results mean for a nation already exhausted by division.

[Theme music ends]

RUBY:

So it's six thirty in the evening where you are now and you've spent most of the day traveling through different parts of New York, so what's it been like?

OSCAR:

Well, the strangest thing is how quiet it's been.

We headed out to midtown Manhattan this morning and arrived at Madison Square Garden, but there was really hardly anyone there.

It's been open as an early polling site for around a week now, and I think in its first couple of days, there were many people visiting it to cast their vote. People have been voting early and then, you know, my Instagram feed has been filled with people proudly posting selfies of themselves wearing those ‘I voted’ stickers.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Newsreader:

“More than 100 million Americans voted early, and their votes are already in the books…”

OSCAR:

But today, which was kind of a blustery and cool day in New York, there was more or less no one there.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter # 1:

“A record number of Americans hitting the polls early, voters across the country casting their ballots well ahead of election day…”

Archival Tape --Unidentified Reporter # 2:

“And with Covid-19 cases surging across the nation, voters are doing everything they can to get their early ballot in.”

OSCAR:

And it was made even stranger by the fact that the shopfront windows were all being boarded up, or had been boarded up with wood.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter # 3:

“Business districts and office buildings in several US cities are boarding up their doors and windows for fears of election day unrest, and in the days that follow.”

OSCAR:

I think a lot of shop owners and property owners have decided to take it upon themselves to board up their shops in preparation for what might become civil unrest.

RUBY:

Mm. Ok, and so you spoke to voters who cast their ballot today. Can you tell me a bit about the people who you talked to? Who are they? And what sorts of issues did they say were important to them?

OSCAR:

Sure. So as I'm sure you know, New York City is a blue city, but there are pockets of Trump support. I mean, if you go down to south Brooklyn, you can see Trump/Pence signs; they call themselves a beleaguered red zone.

In Staten Island, there have been a number of very well attended Trump rallies. And just last week, a number of fights broke out in Manhattan between Trump supporters and counter protesters.

So when I was heading out this morning, I really wanted to try and see that cross-section within what is traditionally a blue city, and surprisingly, it didn't take much to find that cross section.

Archival Tape -- Oscar Schwartz:

"I was wondering if we could take up a few minutes of your time to ask you a few questions?”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Woman #1:

“Do you mind walking and talking...?"

OSCAR:

So a young woman from Harlem, she was actually a poll worker who cast her vote at this polling station, she seemed to support progressive issues around health care and housing.

But then when we pushed a little bit, she said that she had voted for Trump because she's pro-life.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Woman #1:

“You know I noted that a lot of women are angry about Trump wanting to end abortions, but I’m for that, I’m against abortions…”

OSCAR:

We also spoke to Edie, and she very proudly said she's voting for Trump.

Archival Tape -- Edie:

“The other day a big group of trucks went flying with banners for Trump and I did go ‘weeeee, my people!’ Because it is very one way here…”

OSCAR:

And when we got into it a little bit, she said she wasn't voting for Trump for anything that he's done that we know of.

Archival Tape -- Edie:

“They are not the issues that are getting to the forefront, and that’s why, and I think it’s because I do a lot of following and reading of what people call alternative news…”

OSCAR:

But she's voting for him for the things he does behind closed doors.

Archival Tape -- Edie:

“…It’s the treason, it is the pedophilia, the stuff nobody on mainstream media is talking about, it’s the crimes against humanity, it’s that. It’s not the stuff that everyone wants to argue day in and day out about. It’s the real stuff that’s been going on for hundreds and hundreds of years…”

OSCAR:

So that was kind of a real shock, to be honest, to have this very, very open conversation on the streets of Manhattan.

RUBY:

Right, so those are some of the Trump voters who you spoke to, did you also speak to some Biden supporters?

Archival Tape -- Oscar Schwartz:

“Is this your first time voting?”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Man #1:

“It is, I’m 21, last time there was an election I was 17, so...”

OSCAR:

We spoke to two brothers, 21 and 22, who were there together to vote for Biden...

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Man #2:

“I mean clearly the majority believe that we should go away from what's happening right now, so hopefully that's heard and represented and everyone comes out to vote.”

OSCAR:

...and both of them were adamant that this was a vote for their future, they were particularly concerned about climate issues.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Man #2:

“...voting rights act, climate change…”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Man #1:

“Climate change especially! The environment. I think people are underestimating the importance of that…”

OSCAR:

So the Biden supporters that we spoke to were voting for him because they care about health care, they want the pandemic managed better, they believe in social justice, and they also believe in the importance of addressing climate change.

RUBY:

And how confident were the people that you spoke to about their preferred candidate's chances of winning? And was there a difference in those who were saying they were going to vote for Biden and those who are saying that they were going to vote for Trump?

OSCAR:

There was a clear difference. The people who were going to vote for Trump are certain he's going to win in a landslide. The people who are voting for Biden are kind of maybe cautiously optimistic at best.

I think everyone has learnt from 2016 not to expect too much from the polls. And there definitely is a conservatism amongst blue voters towards what they're willing to hope for in the next coming days.

So, yeah, Biden is definitely going in the favourite in the polls, the pollsters assure us that they have corrected for the mistakes that they made in 2016. The polls are closing soon and we'll know much more in a few hours.

RUBY:

Well, we'll check back in with you soon then to find out where things are at.

OSCAR:

Great. Thanks, Ruby.

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RUBY:

Hey, how's it going?

OSCAR:

Good. Yeah, I mean, oh my God. It feels like honestly, like three days ago since we last spoke.

RUBY:

I know what you mean. Yeah. I'm so tense.

OSCAR:

It's crazy.

RUBY:

Okay. So Oscar, it's now just after 11 o'clock at night where you are in the US. Polls closed a few hours ago now and counting began in various states. So what do we know so far? How close are things?

OSCAR:

So, yeah, the polls on the East coast closed a few hours ago, and in the West coast around an hour ago...

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter #1:

“... There are a bunch of polls about to close, 16 states, Washington DC…”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter #2:

“And there it is, the first polls have closed. Counting is now well underway…”

OSCAR:

...and we have some results from some States and some early figures from others. We've already seen this play out tonight in states like North Carolina and Ohio, where Biden took an early lead.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter #1:

“So far, Joe Biden off to a very good start…”

Archival Tape --Unidentified Reporter #2:

“It shows Joe Biden at 53% and the President at 45% but there is by all accounts a lot of votes out there…”

OSCAR:

And then Trump narrowed that lead as the same day voting started to come through.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“You have to tip your hat to the President for moving the needle in some of these states, see if it’s enough to get him to the finish line…”

OSCAR:

But the big early news really came from Florida.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“...The big one right now, Florida. At this hour officially, it’s too close to call, but President Trump is holding the lead now…”

OSCAR:

It now looks like a Trump win. Some polls predicted a Biden victory there, which was really the only path to a decisive conclusion this evening, which I think a lot of people were hoping for.

RUBY:

And so this is an unexpected turn, right? Because the polls did show that Biden was more likely to take Florida...

OSCAR:

I think it's unexpected, but not totally out of the ballpark. So Florida has always been important. It's voted for every president since 1996. So it's always really closely watched because it has a lot of electoral college votes so there's tonnes riding on who wins.

And we saw this in the 2000 Bush Gore election, when it came down to just a few hundred votes in Florida, which ultimately decided who became president. So some polls before the election showed Biden picking up Florida, but as results started to come through, and Florida is very good at counting its votes. It's very efficient because it has a good early counting system. Trump was doing much better than some people expected and now it looks like he’s won Florida, which is a huge boost for him.

Archival Tape --Unidentified Reporter #1:

“...he just won it by about 4, 4 and half percentage points, that’s a really big increase...”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter #2:

“This news channel is calling it for President Trump in Florida once again”

OSCAR:

The major change in Florida, or one really interesting change is in Miami Dade. Biden holds but at a margin that's far less than Clinton in 2016.

The results have been potentially moved by Cuban and Venezuelan immigrant community votes, which potentially reveals a new division in Florida that there, you know, it's often referred to as the Hispanic vote, but moving forward in Florida, there may be many different Hispanic votes, depending on the particular community.

RUBY:

Oscar, is there a sense yet as to why this election is so much closer than many people thought it would be? Is it the case that the polls were wrong again? Or is it that Trump managed to convince a lot of people, a lot of last minute voters to turn up and to go his way?

OSCAR:

Yeah, so I think that for a lot of people, the results will be a surprise. I mean, it's been such a chaotic year. There's been the pandemic, there's been a quarter of a million deaths. And some people I think just assumed that Trump would lose some of his supporter base. This seems to have been reflected again in the optimistic polling. But I was out today, the last place that I went was the Brooklyn museum, and I was speaking to a woman who told me that her family out on the West coast are all Trump supporters

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Woman:

“My dad is a rocket scientist, he’s a very smart guy. For whatever reason he is voting for Trump.”

OSCAR:

She said that pollsters call their house and they refuse to take the call because there still is this sense of shame in admitting out loud that you are a Trump supporter, or at least the sense of you being misunderstood.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Woman:

“The fact that my parents refuse to talk about it, to pollers who call their house, that scares me.”

OSCAR:

I think we understood that phenomenon back in 2016, but we didn't think it would have repeated itself. And perhaps it has.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Woman:

“I feel like we might be setting ourselves for this 2016 scenario where Biden should win but all these people, because of this sense of shame and villainizing, aren’t talking about it. We’ve lost the ability to have uncomfortable conversations with each other.”

RUBY:

Ok so right now it’s looking like we’re not going to have definitive results for at least a few days. Is that the case?

OSCAR:

Definitely. I think it's still looking close, and it may be days before we have those counts. The mail in ballots need to be counted and things are going to get complicated. Weeks ago, people were talking about how there wouldn't be a decisive result on election night and we'd have to be patient and not freak out. Now, as we're all freaking out, this is the real test. The test begins now.

What we do know is that it wasn't the emphatic Biden victory that some predicted. The country is clearly extremely divided. But what makes this different is that division this year is coupled with profound uncertainty about what's going to happen. It's not only a close race, but there's a pandemic, a deluge of mail-in votes to be counted, you know, resurgent efforts to suppress the vote, which we're hearing about and potentially in the coming weeks, a whole lot of lawsuits.

And when there's this kind of division and uncertainty, I think you really need to rely on institutions to kind of guide, you know, what's going to happen and that's going to be needed in the coming weeks. But the American electoral machinery, it really has some perplexing legal gaps that makes it possible for a reckless incumbent to use power, to prevent a decisive outcome. And I think, you know, I've read some forecasts that say the lawsuits and the uncertainty could last all the way into next year. It's going to be pretty chaotic, I think.

So I think there was this sense that I felt in the lead up to this election, that it was kind of like this collective anticipation of pain. Like we knew something painful was coming in the near future. And what tonight really tells us that it's not going to be pulling off the bandaid quickly. It's going to be kind of longer and more tortuous than that. What I feel is that tonight is just the beginning of a long process and painful process that might push America and its institutions kind of closer to the brink than it already is. What is really clear for me is that Democrats might still have done enough to beat Trump, but they definitely have not done enough to defeat Trumpism. That is kind of an ideological paradigm that is in this country, and what has been reflected in the results is that it's deeply within the country.

RUBY:

Oscar, thank you so much for talking to me again, and I hope to touch base with you soon.

OSCAR:

Yeah. Thanks a lot, Ruby.

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[Theme music starts]

RUBY:

As we mentioned at the beginning of this episode, in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Donald Trump claimed victory in the election. He also threatened to try to end legitimate vote counting efforts.

We will be examining those claims, and what happens next, in Friday’s episode of 7am.

I’m Ruby Jones, see you tomorrow.

[Theme Music ends]