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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media I’m Ruby Jones this is 7am.

This week, record breaking floods in Queensland and New South Wales have left thousands of homes decimated, with tens of thousands of residents forced to evacuate, and a number of people dead.

Meanwhile, overseas, Russian forces have been intensifying their attacks on Ukraine - with key cities beginning to fall to Russian troops.

So how is the Prime Minister Scott Morrison - who also received a Covid-19 diagnosis this week - dealing with these challenges?

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno on Scott Morrison’s performance, and plummeting popularity.

It’s Friday March 3.

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RUBY:

Paul, there has been so much happening this week, I almost don't know where we should start!

PAUL:

Well, true, Ruby - most immediately you have the catastrophic weather and flooding on the East Coast…

Archival tape – News Anchor:

Australia's East Coast flood crisis is closing in on Sydney as we go to air with extreme weather bearing down on the city…

PAUL:

…then there's the horror of the Russian invasion of Ukraine...

Archival tape – News Anchor:

We’ll leave the flood emergency for the moment. It's been a horrific 24 hours in Ukraine as besieged cities are hit over and over again…

PAUL:

…and we even have the Covid bug catching up with the prime minister.

Archival tape – News Anchor:

Scott Morrison has thanked the public for their well-wishes after confirming he has tested positive for COVID 19. The prime minister is now working from home, focussing on the floods and Russia…

RUBY:

Well, let's talk about those floods in Queensland first. You were at one point a reporter in Queensland, and you've spent a lot of time there over the years. So tell me about what happened this week, the scenes that we've been seeing across that state.

PAUL:

Ruby, we seem to call everything unprecedented now, but this really is.

Archival tape – News Anchor:

The so-called rain bomb is putting nearly 1500 homes at risk. A hundred suburbs are on high alert…

PAUL:

Rivers in the sky is how it's being described. Four Sydney Harbours worth of water dumped on southern Queensland in a matter of days.

Archival tape – News Anchor:

Lives in jeopardy on water and on land, with 1500 homes at risk as a monster, high tide hit and relentless rains sent the city into panic…

PAUL:

The flooding has been horrific. Whole buildings washed away.

Archival tape – On the ground reporter:

(water rushing)

This is complete and utter devastation here, Kyle. Think about this, this is every single business, every single service station, every single Coles, it is gone…

PAUL:

At least nine people have died in Queensland. In New South Wales, where these rain bombs have also exploded, the death toll, as we speak, stands at four.

Archival tape – News Anchor:

Car parks turned into raging torrents, so did playgrounds. Hundreds of drivers have been trapped across the city, and the death toll keeps rising.

(heavy rain sounds)

Archival tape – @adamregterschot (TikTok):

We had 638 mils of rain in three days, and they are saying we could possibly get another 500 today… (heavy rain sounds)

PAUL:

The event has washed over the top of the markers from the famous flood in 74 in Brisbane. You know, meteorologists are being forced to rethink describing these events as one in 100 years or even one in a thousand years. They're now occurring too frequently for this mathematical probability metaphor to be meaningful.

RUBY:

Mm and it has been devastating for so many people, and it's been really sad Paul, watching it all unfold. Can you tell me a bit, though, about the political reaction that we've been seeing?

PAUL:

Well, this is a tense one, and it's very important to Morrison. After the shambles of the Black Summer bushfires response, well, he made sure he was in flood ravaged Brisbane at the weekend and seemed to be personally involved and briefed.

Archival tape – Palaszczuk:

Okay, good morning everyone, and good morning, Queensland. We have a lot to get through today…

PAUL:

On Monday morning, Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk held an early news conference flanked by her police and emergency officials.

Archival tape – Palaszczuk:

But just to give you some indication of the Wivenhoe increases: on Thursday it was 58.7 percent, Friday 80.6, Saturday 142, and today it's 160. So this is a very extreme weather event.

PAUL:

She spelled out how the Bureau of Meteorology had to revise warnings three times on Sunday of the severity of the weather event swamping the state. She also drew attention to the state government's assistance payments.

Archival tape – Palaszczuk:

People will be able to get eligibility for $900 for a family of five or more, and there is a community recovery hotline, but we will give that to you later on.

PAUL:

Two hours later, Morrison held a news conference flanked only by the liberal lord mayor of Brisbane, Adrian Schrinner.

Archival tape – Scott Morrison:

The planning for the recovery has already begun, and the resources and the support that will be necessary to ensure the clean up can get underway. I commend the Queensland government for the work they're doing with the councils…

PAUL:

What he had to announce…well, it left the Queensland government underwhelmed. In sombre, almost contrite tones, the Prime Minister re-announced the federal disaster relief measures that have been left unchanged since John Howard tweaked them in 2006, and which have been applied by every prime minister since.

Archival tape – Scott Morrison:

…and those disaster recovery allowance payments that are made by the federal government will be able to support them in those areas and further support payments will be assessed…

PAUL:

There was no new money. Nothing from the billion set aside for the election, even as the damage bill climbs to unimaginable levels. As one key adviser told me: “Nothing special for Queensland, yet, $70 million for lethal aid to Ukraine.”

RUBY:

Hmm. OK. And Paul, the unspoken reality that is underpinning this situation is climate change, and I suppose more specifically, the Morrison government's lack of response to that challenge.

PAUL:

Well, absolutely. The release of the latest International Panel on Climate Change Report this week reinforced the link between these extreme weather events and global warming. It's increasingly clear that Morrison's adoption of the net zero emissions by 2050 fails to address the rapidly emerging crisis. In reluctantly agreeing to this goal, the Nationals still held the prime minister to Tony Abbott's pathetically weak targets of 26 to 28 per cent reduction by 2030. Now, voters know this isn't enough. They're losing their houses to it.

Contrast this with John Howard's political response in the run up to the 2007 election, where climate change was also a big issue.

Archival tape – John Howard:

Today, I'm announcing $627 million dollars in practical new measures to tackle global warming…

PAUL:

Howard read the mood and promised a strong emissions reduction scheme.

Archival tape – John Howard:

Implementing an emissions trading scheme and setting a long term goal for reducing emissions will be the most momentous economic decisions Australia will take in the next decade…

PAUL:

One Liberal I spoke to this week pointed out the difference between the two leaders and their response, which is all about really their response to the National Party. The Liberal told me, and I'm quoting “Morrison doesn't have Howard's authority over his government to do the same.”

You know, that really means he hasn't got the authority to give the electorate what they're demanding in the great crisis we all face.

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Paul, the flooding in Queensland is really throwing into relief the lack of leadership on climate that we're seeing from the federal government and in particular, from the prime minister. So are we seeing the effects of that play out in the polls at all?

PAUL:

Well, the release of Newspoll on Monday was another shocker for the government.

The latest average of all the published polls, including Roy Morgan on Tuesday, has Labor's two party preferred lead, just under 10 per cent. Polling analyst Kevin Bonham's view last week has been reinforced with this week's numbers. His analysis of the historical data has led him to conclude the Morrison government is now, quote, “outside the historic recovery window”.

RUBY:

Right. OK, and what does he mean by that? By the recovery window?

PAUL:

Well, it's the time it takes a leader to turn around their fortunes in the polls. If you look at the averages, even with other leaders with similar bad figures, it takes more than the three months Morrison has to win back the electorate to recover in the last three Newspolls. Labor's primary vote of 41 per cent is its highest level since Malcolm Turnbull's dumping smashed the liberal support in August 2018.

Labor's run of primary votes at this level matches Kevin Rudd's performance when he was a popular prime minister in 2009. But I’ve got to tell you, there's one number in the poll that has Albanese's camp particularly excited.

Now, while Morrison is deep in negative approval territory for his performance with 55 percent dissatisfied, only 2 percent are uncommitted. And this gives the embattled prime minister very little scope to lift his support. It tells us voters have made up their minds. Albanese, on the other hand, is just in positive territory, and he has a 13 per cent uncommitted, so he's got more to work with and the trend is narrowing in his favour.

RUBY:

Right. So it sounds, Paul, like that two percent - that's the magic number. The two per cent of voters that Morrison has left to swing. And I mean, that's not very many…

PAUL:

Well, theoretically, yes. The public didn't have a firm view of Morrison going into the last election when he managed to snatch victory against the odds. This time, well, they know who he is, and the polls say they're not impressed.

Even the crisis in Ukraine hasn't helped his fortunes. Obviously, there's an expectation that national security is a vote winner for the Coalition, but it's not showing up in these polls. And Morrison isn't dominating the national agenda, as he might hope.

I was told of some interesting focus group research, Ruby, of swing voters conducted last weekend by Labor, and it was done in three Western Australian seats that they're targeting: Hasluck, Pearce and Swan. The research found almost universal condemnation of Morrison. Voters didn't believe Albanese was weak on China, as Morrison has been saying. They accused the prime minister of running a desperate scare campaign, and one woman even likened his behaviour to a toddler having a tantrum.

So, Ruby, that's where we end this week, a long way from where Morrison wants to be going into an election. Actually, as we mentioned, he's in isolation with COVID-19. You know, it's an apt metaphor. He's just as friendless and removed as the polls are revealing.

RUBY:

Hmm. Well, there's still time, Paul, before the election comes around, and I'm sure that he's counting on that.

PAUL:

Yeah, Ruby. I'm sure he is.

RUBY:

See you next week, Paul

PAUL:

Bye!

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RUBY:

Also in the news today…

Half a million people are under evacuation orders across NSW as heavy rain forecasts continue to exacerbate the flood crisis across the state.

Major flooding has also been recorded on Sydney’s outskirts.

In Queensland, flood clean up efforts have been halted, with the Bureau of Meteorology warning of severe thunderstorms in the south-east of the state over the next 24 hours.

Residents of already inundated properties have been told not to return home and to instead head to evacuation centres.

And according to the UN’s refugee agency, up to one million people have fled Ukraine in the week since Russia invaded.

As Russia’s invasion of the country continues to escalate, the agency predicts roughly ten percent of the country’s population could eventually leave.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper. It’s produced by Elle Marsh, Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Anu Hasbold and Alex Gow.

Our senior producer is Ruby Schwartz and our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Brian Campeau mixes the show. Our editor is Osman Faruqi. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

And this week was the last week at 7am for our editor Osman Faruqi. He’ll be missed by the team, but we wish him the best of luck in his next ventures.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See you next week.

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