DANIEL:

Paul, we thought of you when the Pope passed away. You were once a Catholic priest. What did you make of his passing and what did it mean to you?

PAUL:

Well I've got to say it meant a lot to me, really, because this Pope in many ways epitomises the sort of Catholic Church that I was educated in immediately after the Vatican Council back in the mid to late 60s. He was inclusive, he was human, and he actually showed what I believe is the core of not only the Catholic faith but of the Christian belief. Of love and mercy, so it's no surprise to me that the whole world, whether they're believers or not, mourn a figure of this sort.

DANIEL:

Paul Bongiorno is one of the 1.2 billion Roman Catholics who mourned the loss of Pope Francis this week.

And as he read tribute after tribute of the impact of the pope – he noticed what wasn’t on the front page – Peter Dutton’s last minute policy announcements.

PAUL:

The Pope is a world figure, there's absolutely no doubt about that, and of course, it swamped the world's media, including here in Australia. So it's not surprising that the death of this pope would overshadow anything that our leaders were doing in the election campaign. In fact, it would blow the campaign out of the water for a few days.

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DANIEL:

From Schwartz Media. I’m Daniel James, this is 7am.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno – on how the Pope’s death derailed Dutton – and whether he can recover. That’s Dutton - not the pope.

It’s Saturday April 26.

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DANIEL:

Paul, Peter Dutton had a major policy announcement on Monday, which was lost in the coverage of the pope’s death…but it was about law and order.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter (9 News):

“This is Peter Dutton positioning himself not just as a potential future prime minister, but also reminding us he is a former police officer, and also a Dad, who knows right now parents’ two biggest concerns are drugs and keeping children safe.”

DANIEL:

What did you make of this move by Dutton?

PAUL:

Well, look, this isn't a surprise at all. This is an area of security: law and order, crime.

Audio excerpt – Peter Dutton:

“So today we announced a $750 million package, which is a real game changer in relation to how we can help keep our communities and our homes and our towns and suburbs safe.”

PAUL:

While it is true, certainly at the state level, law and order for example played a very big role in the Queensland state election, I think I think people are aware that the federal issues are a bit broader than the law and order tack that Dutton is taking. The other thing is, I actually thought the launch was a bit hyperbolic, if I can put it that way. There's a lot of hyperbole with one of the Liberal candidates saying that people are scared to go shopping in Melbourne.

Audio excerpt – Nathan Conroy:

“People don't feel safe in their own homes, their businesses, taking public transport or even at the shops.”

PAUL:

And I actually don't think that it's resonating in the federal campaign anywhere near as strongly as the whole issue of cost of living.

DANIEL:

Peter Dutton managed to break through when he won the third leaders debate on Tuesday night. Is he sharpening as we're getting closer to the finish line?

PAUL:

Well, look, I would dispute that he did break through on Tuesday night. Dutton gave Labor an enormous piece of ammunition when he confirmed that there would be significant cuts but said he had to wait till he got into government before he could tell where they would be, what agencies and what department.

Audio excerpt – Peter Dutton:

“So we will look at government expenditure and as, again, we've done in the past as a Liberal government. We will look at the budget, we'll see where the government's wasting money. I think every Australian looks at their own budgets now, and if they're having to tighten their belts, so too should the federal government, because if we don't, that's what drives interest rates up.”

PAUL:

And in my view, in another lapse by Peter Dutton, he seemed to lose his cool with Albanese when Albanese was accusing him of cutting what was at about $80 billion from the health budget.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“Prior to coming to office you ripped $80 billion out of those two items in 2014.”

PAUL:

Dutton shot back, ‘you couldn't even lie straight in bed’.

Audio excerpt – Peter Dutton:

“Prime minister, you couldn't lie straight in bed, honestly, this is unbelievable.”

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“Well, you can go to abuse.”

PAUL:

It was, I think, Albanese's retort that hit the mark when he said.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“That's a sign of desperation, Peter, frankly.

Audio excerpt – Peter Dutton:

“As he's lying.”

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“That's the sign of desperation. Go to the 2014 Budget Papers, people can do that.”

PAUL:

And Labor strategists tell me that Dutton has to be on his guard in these debates against reinforcing the view that he's nothing more than aggressive, or as Malcolm Turnbull once called him, a thug, whereas this lapse, as it were, plays into this overly aggressive persona.

DANIEL:

As you mentioned before, Paul, one of the key moments during the leaders debate was when Dutton conceded there would be significant budget cuts but refused to outline where they'd fall. How has that moment played into Labor's narrative about trust and transparency?

PAUL:

Well, probably in light of the arguments that Labor have been using throughout the campaign, the Coalition campaign headquarters released a list of the sort of cuts they would make. And this only reinforces the vulnerability of the Liberals in claiming that they will make tough decisions and cut Labor's, in inverted commas, wasteful spending. But when you look at the list, it's quite gobsmacking on a couple of levels. First of all, it goes counter to what you might call as Liberal holy writ. They always attack Labor for wanting to pay for its spending by upping income tax. Well that's exactly what they're doing here.

DANIEL:

Paul, Dutton has announced an increase in defence spending.

Audio excerpt – Peter Dutton:

“What we announced today is a record investment into defence, which is going to be of particular benefit here in Western Australia and South Australia.”

DANIEL:

Given the chaos out of the United States that has loomed over this campaign - will it be politically popular?

PAUL:

Well look, the presumption is that Australians or a majority of Australians actually support massive defence spending.

Audio excerpt – Peter Dutton:

“Australia has an important role to play on the global stage and in our own region. But most importantly, a good Australian government will always invest into keeping us safe.”

PAUL:

Now there was a study that was written up in The Conversation this week, a survey done by the War Studies Research Group at the University of New South Wales and it found that only a third of Australians support increasing defence spending, so in other words. Even though we have uncertainty, even though we have Donald Trump in the White House telling us, look after yourselves, only a third of Australians support massive defence spending at this time because it's vying with another thing that Australians do support, and that is relief so that they can make ends meet for their families so they can pay their bills. He simply hasn't done the homework to build this into a major election issue at this time.

DANIEL:

Coming up after the break - what record pre-polling numbers say about the mood of the electorate.

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DANIEL:

Paul, how did Anthony Albanese spend the week?

PAUL:

Well, he started the week basically mourning the Pope.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“Today the prayers of more than a billion people, from all nations and every walk of life, go with Pope Francis to his rest.”

PAUL:

I mean, he was very fast off the mark, noting the Pope's death, paying a great tribute to him, but then he suspended for a full day his campaigning.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“I have asked the department of prime minister and cabinet that all flags from the commonwealth government of Australia will fly at half mast tomorrow as a sign of respect.”

PAUL:

Albanese came back into the fray by going up to Sydney and debating Peter Dutton on Tuesday night, then campaigned in liberal marginal seats in Melbourne, and then he's over to Perth to one of the Liberals' strongest seats in WA, Collie.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter:

“The prime minister, energy minister and West Australia's Premier Roger Cook coming to Collie south of Perth, one of seven sites where Peter Dutton plans to build nuclear reactors if he wins the election.”

PAUL:

Albanese went there to, as it were, hang a bright lantern over the fact that Dutton won't even come here, even though he wants to put a nuclear plant here, and that nuclear is the least-best option for dealing with the transition to at zero emissions.

DANIEL:

Albanese has consistently ruled out doing a deal with the Greens in the event of a hung parliament. So given how likely a minority government still is, what should voters make of what will happen if Labor doesn't win outright?

PAUL:

Look, I was a bit gobsmacked, Daniel, when in the debate the moderator thought that when Albanese ruled out doing a deal with the Greens that we're going to go to another election. That's not the fact at all. In fact, the whole crossbench, including the Greens, accept the fact that you don't have to have a formal coalition agreement, as it were, with the minority government for a minority government to exist. All you have to do is to guarantee confidence and supply, and then tackle every issue and every bit of legislation on its merits. And that's the game plan, certainly, for Albanese. And it's also the gameplan for people like Andrew Wilkie, who as late as Thursday reinforced that he wouldn't be doing a deal with any minority government like he did with the Gillard minority government because he said they don't keep their side of the bargain. So what we would see if, for example, there is a minority government, and there are no formal coalition agreements like we have on the non-Labor side of politics with the Liberals and the Nationals, the most likely thing would be that the Governor-General would call the Parliament to convene and for the party with the biggest number of seats to test on the floor of the Parliament if it had confidence. That would probably be the way that we would go forward.

DANIEL:

Early polling has been going gangbusters – on the first day alone, more than half a million people voted, smashing the previous record in 2022 by hundreds of thousands of votes. What do you think it says about the sentiment in the community that people are making their minds up well before the campaign is over, Paul?

PAUL:

Yeah, there are various theories on this, Daniel, and I've noticed some vox pops that have been done outside the polling booths, and you get the impression that, well, these voters have had enough, they don't want to hear any more, and in fact, most of them have made up their minds. They're saying now that by the time we get to Saturday week that over half the electorate, that is about nine million people will have voted.

DANIEL:

There's still another leader's debate to come. Given what we've seen with early voting, what's the point? Do you still think voters who haven't made up their mind could be moved by yet another debate?

PAUL:

Well, there could be one or two who might be moved who are looking for something to give them a reason to vote one way or the other. Interestingly, Anthony Albanese is the first prime minister to agree to four of these debates. We've had as few as one, I think three was the last best number, and people were wondering why Albanese was so keen. But it seems that the Labor camp are of a view that the more people see of Peter Dutton, the worse it is for him. And the news poll shows, among other polls this week, that Peter Dutton has gone backwards quite dramatically in his approvals during the campaign. Minus 22 is his net approval in the news polls. One seasoned liberal said to me, that's change of leader territory. We'll see in over a week's time whether that change will be forced upon the Liberals by the voters.

DANIEL:

Well, it's going to be fascinating to see what plays out in the final week.

Paul, thank you once again for your time and your insights.

PAUL:

Thanks, mate. Bye.

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DANIEL:

7am is a daily show from Schwartz Media and The Saturday Paper.

It’s made by Atticus Bastow, Cheyne Anderson, Chris Dengate, Erik Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah McVeigh, Travis Evans, Zoltan Fecso - and me, Daniel James.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

Thanks for listening. Catch you on Monday.