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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media I’m Ruby Jones this is 7am.

As the war in Ukraine enters its second month, it’s clear that a swift and easy victory for Russia was never a possibility.

Russian forces are now fighting Ukraine on three fronts, but have failed to capture any major cities, with battles stalled as Ukrainians resist.

So did the Russian President Vladimir Putin underestimate Ukraine’s strength? And if so, what is he likely to do next?

Today, historian and contributor to The Saturday Paper Mark Edele on how the war in Ukraine will end.

It’s Tuesday, March 29.

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RUBY:

Mark, at the beginning of all of this, the beginning of the invasion, I think there was this expectation both within Russia and outside, that Russia's military would sweep through Ukraine within a few days and quickly seize the capital Kiev and therefore win the war fairly easily. But as we've seen, that is not at all what has happened, is it?

MARK:

No, quite the opposite happened. I mean, they made some advances, but they also got bogged down very quickly and did not actually take over Kiev.

And they are still trying to take as much as they can, but they have very strong trouble. I'm taking cities. And they have very strong trouble supplying their forces.

So, yeah, it was from a military side, probably a strategic defeat at this point of the Russians.

RUBY:

Right so if it is a strategic defeat - how did that happen? How did Ukraine get the better of Russia?

MARK:

Well, the Ukrainians had prepared for a Russian invasion. Nobody else believed that this was likely and kept telling them that they were paranoid and so on, but they had prepared for it. So it might have been unexpected to outsiders, but I don't think it was actually unexpected.

What might have been unexpected is the extent to which President Zelensky became this really high profile wartime leader.

Archival Tape -- President Zelensky:

“Our people are very much motivated. Very much so. We are fighting for our rights, for our freedoms, for our life. And now, we're fighting for survival.”

MARK:

Because he was not a very, very efficient civilian president, but as the kind of coordinator and the public voice of the resistance to the Russian invasion, he has been extremely successful and efficient.

Archival Tape -- President Zelensky:

“Nobody is going to break us. We are strong. We are Ukrainians. Life will win over death. Light will win over darkness. Glory be to Ukraine.”

MARK:

So from a Ukrainian perspective, I mean a lot of Ukrainian colleagues of mine were quite impressed suddenly by somebody they had not not may be seen as, you know, a great civic leader before.

RUBY:

And so Mark it’s now about five weeks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began and Russian forces have not been able to take the capital Kyiv in this time, it's clear that things have not gone to the Russian plan. So I wonder if you could just tell me what your assessment is of this particular moment of the conflict and how long you think we might be stuck in this kind of standoff?

MARK:

So the state of play at the moment is that there are three independent fronts one in the east, one in east Donbas, one in the south and one in the north. And all of them have stalled at the moment.

Archival Tape -- News:

“What is going wrong for the Russians right now?”

Archival Tape -- CNN:

“Well, an awful lot. Actually, it's a stalemate, but we should know it's a bloody stalemate. This is not a cease fire.”

MARK:

And at the same time, they continue to to bomb the cities they're besieging

Archival Tape -- CNN:

“So let's look at this corridor because this is important. We have Russian troops just absolutely pummelling Mariupol. We’ve just heard these horrible stories.”

MARK:

There is an indication that much of the the centre of gravity of the Russian assault is shifting towards the Eastern Front or towards pushing out the border of the Russian controlled regions in Donbas.

Archival Tape -- CNN:

“But Russia has reportedly established a land corridor between the Donbass region, which is here and Crimea, which they seized in 2014.”

MARK:

But in particular, they're now also targeting infrastructure of various sorts, in particular military installations, fuel depots, arms depots and so on.

So trying to they're trying to cripple as much as they can the the Ukrainian military infrastructure, but also continue to essentially terrorise the population with airstrikes and missile strikes.

So it could be, you know, it could be weeks, it could be months, it could be years of a frozen conflict.

The question then becomes, you know, how well will the Ukrainian army be equipped to push back on that?

But in many ways, when that ends is dependent on the Kremlin.

RUBY:

We’ll be right back.

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RUBY:

Mark, could we step through some of the scenarios, then how it's likely that this might all end? What do you think is, I suppose, the the most likely course of events right now?

MARK:

Well, I'm extremely reluctant to say what is the most likely decision made by Vladimir Putin because the man has a tendency to make decisions everybody else thinks are the least likely choice.

However, there there appears to be. I mean, now the choices Moscow faces are an escalation, or they could try to find a way out. That way out might either be to refocus their energy on securing the Donbas, which they're already the parts they already control, so that the breakaway republics in the East and possibly push beyond there and trying to control more more territory and then either freeze the conflict there, declare victory or try to use that in negotiations.

So there's a consistent threat of escalation. They keep keeping the option of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction on the table. The talk about that is quite consistent and concerning, but the main indication at the moment is that they they are refocusing their energies on the Donbas and pushing out the borders they're controlling there.

RUBY:

Right. Okay, so it sounds like there is one way that Russia might quote unquote claim victory in all of this, and that would be to annexe eastern parts of Ukraine, the Donbass region say that they're part of Russia and then call that the end of the war and claim that that was, I suppose, the original intention. But is there any scenario in which that doesn't happen, that there is no annexation, and instead there is some kind of deal made some kind of peace agreement made because I know that Zelensky has been asking Putin for a meeting to discuss a cease fire. He wants to negotiate directly with Putin. Is there any chance that that might happen?

MARK:

Yeah, possibly. I mean, the sticking points there are surely Donbas, which is part of Ukraine, but is currently occupied by Russian proxies, but now also by Russian troops.

And certainly, the Ukrainian government has not accepted the breakaway republics there as legitimate and have not accepted the illegal annexation of Crimea as legitimate.

So that might well be an issue in terms of negotiations. But we will see. I mean, we shouldn't underestimate the pressure the Russian side now is also under.

Archival Tape -- News:

“We’re hearing earlier in the hour the Russian economy, it is plunging, taking a direct hit from the sanctions announced by Ukraine's allies.”

MARK:

The economic situation is getting increasingly dire,

Archival Tape -- News:

“30 percent was the plunge overnight. That was a record one day plunge and also a record low for the ruble.”

MARK:

And the resupply and restocking of both equipment and people for the war is increasingly difficult.

Archival Tape -- Russian man:

“The whole supply chain has been damaged. Many producers are not sending the raw materials or finished products to Russia.”

MARK:

And the sanctions are crippling to a quite significant degree, not just the civilian economy, but also the military industrial complex, which is highly reliant on international supply chains.

Archival Tape -- News:

“Russian forces have been hampered by shortages of food and fuel. Tonight, a US military official says some Russian troops also lack appropriate cold weather gear.”

MARK:

So the pressure’s definitely there to try to reach some kind of compromise.

But I don't see either the Ukrainians accepting to just give away Donbas and Crimea. Or Russia accepting that these are not legitimate acquisitions, so to speak.

So to what extent there will be movement on either side, it remains to be seen.

RUBY:

Right OK. And Mark, let's also just briefly talk about the worst case scenario that this war turns nuclear. How likely do you think that is?

MARK:

Well, I mean, if one could see into Valdimir Putin's head, that would be good, but we can't. I mean, my my inclination would be to say not very likely, right? Because there would be a really crazy move. But at the same time, I'm kind of aware that, you know, if you would have asked me in 2013, is Russia going to annex Crimea? I would have said, You're nuts.

So yes, I think it's unlikely, but it's not impossible.

Vladimir Putin is a risk taker. He is quite an apocalyptic thinker. He thinks Russia is is encircled by enemies and under existential threat. Russian culture is under threat from the West. The existence of the Russian nation is under threat and there is concerning and frequent talk in Russian state media that this is an existential fight.

And Putin has been saying in the past that if there would be an existential threat against Russia, nuclear war would be a logical response to that, so that is very concerning.

So it's definitely not something we should just, you know, dismiss as unlikely.

RUBY:

Hmm. And Mark, just finally, I wonder what your thoughts are on to the extent to which all of this is impacting the way that Russians see Putin because obviously things haven't turned out how Putin declared that they would. There's been this failure to execute a quick takeover in Ukraine. And as you say, there is a sense in which this can be viewed as existential to Russia and to the end to Putin. And so if that is the case, what do you think that this might all mean for Putin? Do you think that people are starting to question his leadership?

MARK:

Depends which people you know, there have been about 200,000 Russians who've left Russia since the war began.

And there's a big Russian diaspora abroad, many of whom are anti-Putin. Not all of them, but many of them are. And there's been, of course, despite very significant threats against anybody who questions the current line on this special military operation. So that goes up to potentially 15 years in prison if you disseminate anything that is seen as misleading. And yet we've still seen some fairly sizable demonstrations, particularly amongst younger people, particularly in the big cities.

And as far as the elites are concerned that clearly some cracks in the in the support for the regime. But to what extent that matters is another question, because Putin has isolated himself so successfully from his surroundings that it would be difficult to see any moves to have him disposed - although it's possible.

But that that seems to be the least likely. I mean, these fantasies many had in the West early on in the war that you know, that Putin would be.. that there would be a coup and he would be dispatched in some way.

Again, you know, you can't rule that out.

But that seems to be the least likely outcome at the moment.

RUBY:

Mark, thank you so much for talking to me about this today.

MARK:

Thanks for having me.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says that Ukraine is prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status as part of a peace deal with Russia.

Zelensky said that the Ukrainian government was ready to negotiate security guarantees, neutrality and the non-nuclear status of the state.

New in-person talks between the two countries are set to take place this week in Turkey.

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And as part of today’s budget, the Morrison government has announced an 18 billion dollar national transport and infrastructure plan.

The spending plan will include funding regional rail and road projects including a further commitment of 3.1 billion dollars for the Melbourne Intermodal Terminal.

The government also revealed its plan to expand and continue the Home Guarantee Scheme which will allow first time home buyers to purchase a property with a smaller deposit.

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For full coverage of the federal budget, we’ll be doing a special episode tomorrow.

I’m Ruby Jomes, This is 7am, see you then.