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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

There are signs that Ukraine has begun its biggest counter-offensive yet, to win back territory held by Russian forces.

It's too soon to know if the operation will succeed or how concerted the effort will be - but there’s no doubt that a new battle in the war would be difficult and costly.

Meanwhile, Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are also fighting the clock. Winter will make it difficult to take back ground and also signals the beginning of untold economic pain on the whole of Europe.

Today - World Editor at The Saturday Paper Jonathan Pearlman on the coalescing crises facing Europe, and what the next phase of the war in Ukraine will look like.

It’s Thursday September 1.

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RUBY:

Jonathan, It's now been more than six months since Russia invaded Ukraine. And for a while now it seems like what we're seeing is a bit of a standoff in the region. Neither side seems capable of either winning or conceding defeat, but that could be about to change. So tell me what it is that we've seen over the last few weeks.

JONATHAN:

Yes, well, that's right, Ruby. Russia invaded in February, thinking that it was going to be a quick victory and that it would quickly seize Kiev. And that has clearly not happened. Instead, Russia's multi pronged assault on Ukraine was resisted and initially ended in really a sort of humiliating failure, I think, for Moscow. But Russia then regrouped and has gradually seized land in the east and controls much of the land in the south that connects Crimea to the eastern Donbas region. And Ukraine has received strong military support from the west, has shown resilience and has successfully defended much of the country.

And as a result, we've had this stalemate for the last couple of months now really. Where Russia has gradually made some small gains and continued to shell Ukrainian towns. But there's been really a bit of a standoff and that now seems to be changing in the last few weeks.

Archival tape -- News reporter 1:

“The head of the United Nations is meeting Ukraine's president and other leaders in the city of Lviv later to try to find ways to end the war in Ukraine when it comes as Ukrainian armed forces have been talking of launching a counteroffensive in the south of the country. And now a senior military officer there has told the BBC they aim to recapture the city of Hessen within weeks.”

JONATHAN:

So firstly, there's these growing concerns about the fighting around the nuclear plant in Russian controlled territory. It's the largest nuclear plant in Europe. It's still operated by Ukrainian technicians, but Russian troops control it. And there's big concerns about an attack that could affect the reactor and lead to some sort of nuclear disaster.

Archival tape -- News reporter 2:

“There's huge concern right now around the nuclear plant in Zakaria and it's under Russian control. There have been clashes around there intensifying in recent days.”

JONATHAN:

Then we've also seen attacks inside Crimea.

Archival tape -- News reporter 3:

“Explosions ring out as fires take hold of an ammunition depot in northern Crimea. The blast sending columns of smoke into the air and forcing more than 3000 people to evacuate nearby villages.”

JONATHAN:

Crimea is the territory that Russia seized in 2014, and Ukraine has shown that it seems to be capable of launching strikes deep inside Russian held territory in Crimea.

So we've seen all these developments come to a head over recent weeks and now there are signs that Ukraine is actually starting to prepare for a major counter offensive against Russian-held territory.

RUBY:

Hmm. Okay. So tell me more about what sounds like it could be a major counter offensive. What is it that is making observers think that Ukraine is preparing for something more large scale, some sort of attempt to get Russia to retreat?

JONATHAN:

So there have been media reports and reports from governments, including U.S. officials, that Ukraine has begun striking supply lines and weapons depots in the Kherson region, which is held by Russia.

Archival tape -- News reporter 4:

“Now Sky News understands that Ukrainian forces have started an operation against Russian troops in a key Russian occupied part of southern Ukraine. Kherson was seized by Russian forces in the early days of the all out invasion. But there are now moves on the ground to reclaim it.”

JONATHAN:

And this seems to suggest that these are the initial forays before Ukraine launches a major offensive. Ukrainian officials have refused to comment on these reports, which also may suggest that a counteroffensive is being prepared.

Usually, Ukrainian officials have been quick to claim any kind of minor victories, but they've remained quiet, really, about the operations that have been conducted this week.

And then early on Tuesday morning, we saw the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, making comments that seemed to allude to the beginning of a counteroffensive.

Archival tape - [Zelenskyy speech]

JONATHAN:

Zelenskyy gave an address to the nation and made comments that seemed to be stronger than the language he'd used in a long time. He warned Russian troops to flee. He said the occupiers should know we will ask them to the border, to our border, the line of which has not changed. He also reiterated that he was determined to take back Crimea, to take back the entire Donbas region and all the area that was occupied by Russia and all the area that's been occupied by Russia since 2014. An advisor to Zelenskyy later said that he expected that this was going to be a long, grinding war.

RUBY:

So it sounds like things could be about to get quite serious on the ground in Ukraine once more. But something like this, it's certainly not going to be easy for Ukraine to execute, is it?

JONATHAN:

No, that's right. This is really the first major counteroffensive that they've launched. And that sort of operation is much more difficult than having to defend territory. It usually involves a lot more troops to try and take back territory. And there's a number of other obstacles that face Ukraine.

Firstly, Ukraine seems to be trying to take back the city of Kherson, which is a major city. It's one of the biggest cities that Russia has seized, and fighting in cities and regaining ground in cities can be very difficult and very costly.

The other problem that they face is that winter is coming and it's coming at a time when Ukraine and the entire European continent is facing gas shortages and severe disruptions to their energy supplies.

RUBY:

We’ll be back after this.

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RUBY:

Jonathan, at this moment in time, war in Ukraine is ongoing. Winter is approaching. Gas prices are rising because of the shortage caused by the war. How does it seem likely that this is going to play out in Europe as things get colder?

JONATHAN:

Yes. So Europe is really facing an energy crisis at the moment, just as it's going into winter.

Gas prices are about seven times higher than they were last year and shortages of gas and electricity and a real risk of severe shortages over winter. It's disrupting the economy and it's affecting households. It's leading to severe inflation across Europe. Britain could have inflation of 18% early next year.

Germany’s got its highest inflation in 40 years and the problem is that Europe was heavily reliant on Russia for its energy supplies. 40% of its gas came from Russia before the war.

Archival tape -- News reporter 5:

“As the call of Europe braces for winter. Many questions emerge. Vladimir Putin's regime is counting on gas shortages in the European Union.”

JONATHAN:

What's happened since Russia's invasion is that firstly the West and Europe imposed sanctions. So started to try to reduce the supply of energy from Russia. And Russia, in turn, has cut off its supplies to Europe.

Archival tape -- News reporter 6:

“Well, this week, the Russian energy company Gazprom drastically reduced its deliveries of gas to Germany through the Nord Stream pipeline. The move complicates Germany's plan to fill its reserve tanks for the winter. People are being urged to cut their energy use by showering less and turning off the lights.”

JONATHAN:

The French government accused Russia of using its energy as a weapon of war.

Archival tape -- News reporter 7:

“Russia is reportedly burning off large amounts of natural gas, even as shortages have sent prices soaring across Europe.”

Archival tape -- News report:

“We put ourselves in the hands of the Russians and they're taking advantage of it. They're playing with our nerves. Therefore, it's necessary to expect this scenario that there will be no more Russian gas at Christmas. It is for that reason that it's necessary to think about alternatives in the short and long term.”

JONATHAN:

And of course, if Europe can no longer rely on Russian gas, they're going to have to look for alternative sources and that could include places like the US, even Australia. But sending in gas from the US or even from places like Australia involves shipping, which is much costlier and much slower than sending it in by pipeline. So. All of this is leaving Europe facing a real energy crisis. Huge increases in prices to businesses, to households. Huge impact on the economy already. And it looks like it may get worse.

RUBY:

Mhm. Right. And when we look ahead though to the immediate challenge to the European winter, what does all of this mean? How serious could these shortages become when we think about people potentially not being able to access or afford to access heating?

JONATHAN:

Yes, people could be facing severe shortages of energy and obviously heating during the European winter. Germans have begun stockpiling wood because they're worried that they're not going to have enough electricity during the winter. We've seen France, Spain, Italy all start to restrict the use of air conditioning. Some are already restricting the use of heating. They're restricting the use of lighting. This is a real crisis for Europe. And that's not to mention the price rises.

Archival tape -- News reporter 8:

“Britain's energy regulator, Ofgem, has announced an 80% jump in its price cap for domestic energy, further squeezing already stretched household budgets. Bills will soar by more than $4,000 annually.”

JONATHAN:

Food prices are rising. It was seeing consumer inflation at record levels. And now they’re having to face severe power price increases.

Archival tape -- News reporter 8:

“They’ve surged since Moscow curtailed gas exports to Europe after invading Ukraine, driving UK inflation to a 40 year high.”

JONATHAN:

And as we enter winter, it looks like the problems are only going to get worse.

RUBY:

And so is it possible then, Jonathan, that this energy crisis could prompt countries in the EU to wind back their support for Ukraine? I suppose what I'm asking is, would this kind of pain affect the popular support that we've seen so far for Ukraine's resistance to the Russian invasion?

JONATHAN:

Yeah, I think it's a fascinating question. And I think to some extent, Vladimir Putin was calculating on that occurring. I think he thought that European governments and the European public were not going to be willing to face the sort of energy problems that they're now facing to stand up to Russia over Ukraine. But he's been wrong so far and it looks like he'll remain wrong.

European countries have remained defiant. We saw Germany suspend the completion of the energy pipeline to Russia early on in the war. Their response to this war in Ukraine is to look for alternative energy supplies and rethink their energy security, rather than allow the lines of the European map to be redrawn by Moscow. And there's strong evidence that governments like those in France and Germany, which are continuing to to commit to defend Ukraine, have the strong support of their public.

A poll last month in Germany showed that 70% of Germans support Ukraine and support defending Ukraine. So at this stage, it seems that Europe is willing to bear the cost of having to stand up to Russia and that Putin's calculation that Europe would buckle rather than give up its Russian energy seems to be another one of the miscalculations he made going into this invasion.

RUBY:

And there’s certainly been a few of those kinds of miscalculations. Obviously it appeared that Putin thought that he would be able to execute some kind of swift and successful invasion, that didn’t happen. Then there was a fairly widespread belief Russia would be able to hold onto and annex a portion of Ukraine, but now that seems far from certain. You said earlier that it looks like this could be a long conflict. So are we now looking at the possibility of years of war with neither side able to claim victory?

JONATHAN:

That's right. I think both sides have shown that they are really willing to commit to lengthy wars. Ukrainian president said that he's willing to give up no ground and wants to reclaim the ground that was taken in 2014. And the Ukrainian people have strongly supported him in that and have shown this continued resilience throughout the war so far.

And on the Russian side, Vladimir Putin has also increased the size of the Russian military. This hasn't been done for years, but he’s going to lift up the size of the Russian military to 1.15 million.

That is clearly a signal that he is preparing for a long war. He faces no serious opposition that we're aware of and seems willing to just continue with, you know, he calls it a special military operation, but it's looking more and more like a prolonged and costly war.

RUBY:

Jonathan, thank you so much for your time.

JONATHAN:

Thanks Ruby.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today,

The last leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev has died aged 91.

Gorbachev oversaw a peaceful end to the cold war, allowing states who were part of the Soviet Union to determine their own internal affairs and introducing a policy of free speech and liberalism. The reforms were meant to reform communism, but eventually led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Within Russia, he has been widely criticised for the decade of economic chaos and widespread poverty that followed the fall of communism.

And

More than 40% of Americans think a civil war is likely within the next 10 years, according to a study by YouGov.

The poll also found that the belief is particularly strong among self-described “strong republicans”. More than half of them believe a civil war is likely.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See you tomorrow.

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