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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

Politics was changed at the last election in a way the major parties are still grappling with.

Now, the record crossbench it delivered looks set to grow even more, with a hung parliament looking ever more likely.

In the lead up to the next election, Labor is courting the teals, knowing the relationship could be crucial to forming government and keeping coalition MPs out of inner city seats.

Today, chief political correspondent for The Saturday Paper, Karen Barlow, on Labor’s plan and the fight that could derail it.

It’s Tuesday September 10.

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RUBY:

So Karen, thank you for joining us. You've been looking into the relationship between the major parties and the independents who are sitting on the crossbench. How has the government treated those independents since they joined Parliament?

KAREN:

It did have a rocky start.

Audio Excerpt - News Host (Sky News):

“Independents are threatening to block and stall legislation in Parliament following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decision to cut their staff resources. 16 lower house and 18 senators will have their personal advisor teams trimmed from 4 people to 1.”

KAREN:

Now, some of that did get returned, but, look, they've managed, while not having the balance of power in the house, they've managed to have a constructive relationship. It's been, in some cases, a warm relationship as individual cabinet ministers who've got on very well with these independents. At the same time, you know, Labor's obviously dealing with some, serious, you know, antagonism from, of course, the opposition and the Greens. And so I guess in some ways, you know, they're a lot nicer. Labor is a lot nicer with the independents.

Audio Excerpt - Karen Barlow:

“How would you describe, Zoe, your relationship with the Albanese Labor government?”

Audio Excerpt - Zoe Daniel:

“I think it's very business-like and it's quite productive. There's certainly an open door policy in terms of collaborative discussion around improving legislation and policy positions.”

KAREN:

So, there's been high level regular meetings with this broad new influx of independents; this crossbench in this parliament.

RUBY:

Mm. And the independents, they have now been in their roles for, for more than two years. So what have they said to you about what it's been like for them in Canberra and about what they have managed to achieve in that time?

KAREN:

I mean, this is something that is a core attack line now from the opposition leader that ‘What have they achieved? Have they achieved anything?’ Well, they tell me they absolutely have, despite not having the balance of power. So the big win, the first win, was the net zero target at 43%, being a floor, not a ceiling, that was something that pretty much all of the independents will tell you that was a big win.

Helen Haines, she can point to the Dyer review, which is getting more community consultation, over renewable energy infrastructure development. So, you know, she tells me that Labor has a real blind spot with rural and regional areas.

Audio Excerpt - Helen Haines:

“When I go interrogating legislation closely, that's where I always see the gaps, and that's what I frequently take to them.”

KAREN:

And so she's assisted that.

Monique Ryan would point to reducing the HECS the indexation that sees the burden on students. So that's something that came from public pressure.

Audio Excerpt - Monique Ryan:

“I've got two amendments which…well, would make a real difference to people's experience of HECS. One's about the timing of indexation, the others about rolling back some of the job ready graduates program. They're both things that the government has acknowledged it needs to do, but has said that it has no intention of addressing right now.”

KAREN:

The House independents say that the government, they don't know how to deal, still, with this record crossbench. They don't know how to deal with some of the members. It's difficult for them and sometimes they get woken up. And one of the examples that Allegra Spender gave me was the recent example of the census question.

Audio Excerpt - Allegra Spender:

“You sat there going, okay, Labor thought it was fighting with the Coalition on this, and this is why I behaved like this, but actually it forgot that it was actually fighting the community and it would, and also a whole bunch of the crossbench weren't going to let it go quietly either.”

RUBY:

And you mentioned the opposition has been attacking some of these independents, but some of them have also ramped up their attacks on Dutton as well. We heard Zali Steggall recently calling him racist over his handling of the Palestinian visa situation. But just as Labor may need the teals, if there is a hung parliament, surely the Coalition would as well. So what are they doing about that?

KAREN:

Look, yeah, obviously the inner city independents, and the Coalition are opponents.

But can I tell you, at the same time, when we talk about the weekly or, you know, parliamentary briefings that go on between the Labor government and the crossbench, the Coalition holds its own, fortnightly briefings during Parliament with the crossbench as well.

Audio Excerpt - Peter Dutton:

“The Prime Minister, if he's in a minority government in the next term of parliament, it will include the Greens, It'll include the Green Teals, It'll include Muslim candidates from Western Sydney, it will be a disaster.”

KAREN:

But we're getting this continuing narrative that we're headed towards a hung parliament. So lines are being laid down now by the opposition leader about how they're green teals and how they're going to be working with the Labor government in minority, and it's going to be a disaster for the country.

RUBY:

Coming up after the break – the big fight that could derail Labor’s relationship with the independents.

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RUBY:

Karen, the Albanese government, we know it's currently working on a package of electoral reforms. Independent MPs, they're worried about that, about what might be coming and how they could be affected. So can you tell me how this fight is shaping up?

KAREN:

One of the main planks of the independents getting elected was integrity and electoral reform. And looking at the issues of, donations, spending and Labor has, you know, gone with that and promised reform, but there's an absence of the independents, the crossbench being involved in the negotiations with the government, which is causing the crossbenchers major concern. They believe it's being set up for a stitch up a two party deal between the Labor government and the Coalition. So the electoral reforms are a major speed bump between the independents and the Labor government.

Audio Excerpt - Kate Chaney:

“The government has a long standing commitment to real time disclosure of political donations over $1,000. But this hasn't happened because the government has indicated it wants opposition's support on electoral reform. Time is running out to implement transparency before the next election. Why won't the government make good on its promise and pass this legislation immediately with crossbench support in both houses? We need transparency now.”

KAREN:

So what the independents are particularly concerned about is, spending caps because they want a level playing field, but at the same time they were largely funded by the climate 200 funding vehicle, and that was also from individual donations plus some very high investors also putting their money there, and the money that was made available for certain candidates did actually dwarf some of the major, candidates in some electorates. And there's a concern that in the major parties, that that is going to impact on some of the fights going forward.

RUBY:

Let's talk a little bit about the Greens, because obviously there is a situation where they could have the balance of power in the Senate. What are their chances?

KAREN:

Well, separate from chances, I think I would immediately say, well, they've got some high ambition for what it could get in the house. And they are eyeing off the balance of power in the house as well. They currently have four MPs in the House, which is their best result ever. And they're looking to build on that. They're going hard on issues such as housing, they want to be the party of mortgage holders, of people who are renting, and they're getting some great responses out in the field.

Audio Excerpt - Adam Bandt:

“This election will be running the biggest campaigns in Greens history to win lower house seats too. There are at least five new seats across the country, where we believe we win. We're in with a strong chance.”

KAREN:

Look, I've, I've spoken to Labor strategists who say, well that's absolute bluster. They've said it every single time. The polling has remained the same. But, Labor was elected in 2022 on a historically low primary vote, and that hasn't improved for them. So, Kos Samaras from Redbridge, he's a former Labor strategist. He says, well, it's now looking like a deeper, hung parliament than even what we were predicting earlier in the year. So it wouldn't just be the independents, the House independents that Labor might have to deal with. It still might be the Greens, and that will be a problem for them.

But the Prime Minister would say, well, you know, when it comes to the crunch, it will tighten up and they're in with a chance. He actually thinks that they can actually build on some of the seats that they have at the moment. So, you know, that's still talking majority government, but, you know, that's an election that's possibly like eight, nine months away.

RUBY:

Okay. So, Karen, both of the coalition and Labor would obviously like to form a majority government in their own right, but as you say, that is looking increasingly unlikely. So how do you think that that is going to affect the messaging around the upcoming election campaign? What are we going to start to hear from, from people like Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese.

KAREN:

We’re starting to hear it now. So things are changing. So for the Coalition, they're saying publicly that they're aiming for majority government, we're not seeing much of an attempt to take back the seats in the inner city that they need to. So it does feed in with this narrative that Peter Dutton's actually going for a two-term strategy to win back government, to basically ride down Labor.

Labor is going for a majority, it will keep saying that it's going for a majority in its own right, it did that last time, it has to, but it will have to change the way that it messages the voting population.

We have to see from all parties, re-energised, sort of volunteer base out there on the ground, much like how the independents did for the 2022 election. So I think, you know, they have to be face to face more and we'll see a lot of bypassing of the traditional media. Anthony Albanese loves to have a chat on, on commercial radio. I think that will continue. He seems to like doing that. But whether people get challenged in any of these political discourses is another matter. So I think we're going to see, you know, a boots on the ground fight. And it's going to get very interesting.

Zoe Daniel, the former ABC foreign correspondent, she says that the two party system is a threat to itself, and it's up to them to be more ambitious. And after all, they're all vying for everyone's votes.

Audio Excerpt - Zoe Daniel:

“I think the two party system is a threat to itself. It's up to them to change their behaviour. It's up to them to show more accountability. It's up to them to show more vision for the country. It's up to them to be more ambitious. It's up to them to stop bickering with each other. It's up to, you know, the Liberals to demonstrate what their principles and values are, and it's up to Labor to follow their principles and values without pandering to politics of fear. That's all up to them. But you know, my role is to try and force them to do that.”

RUBY:

Karen, thank you so much for your time.

KAREN:

Thank you.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today,

The final report of the Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide has been handed to the government, after a three year inquiry.

The commissioners final report contains 122 recommendations, one of which is establishing a new body to monitor progress on addressing the high rates of suicide among military personnel.

And, the Albanese government is still locked in negotiations with the Coalition and Greens over a new environmental protection agency.

Last week the Prime Minister offered to weaken the bill, removing a role for the EPA in project approvals, to try and earn the support of the resources industry and the Coalition.

But Nationals leader David Littleproud has stated that his party will not support the legislation.

I’m Ruby Jones, 7am will be back tomorrow.

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