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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

The Liberal Party is in a state of disarray.

After Saturday night’s NSW election loss, powerbrokers and former strategists were airing dirty laundry. Has the party forgotten the traditional values it stands for? Has it failed to offer younger voters anything? Or is there just not enough talent the party can turn to?

Well, this weekend these questions could grow as the federal party faces the ballot box under Peter Dutton’s leadership for the first time at the Aston by-election.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno on the must-win contest in Aston and how pressure is mounting inside the Liberal Party.

It’s Friday, March 31.

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Archival tape – News Host:

“Liberal Party remains in disarray tonight following their election collapse with massive swing suffered in all major seats-...”

Archival tape – Karl Stefanovic:

“After Labor's crushing election victory in New South Wales, the party now holds power in every mainland state and territory-...”

Archival tape – News Reporter:

“Bad weekend for the Liberal Party once again. We're getting pretty used to saying that, aren't we? The last Liberal Party victory in an election on the mainland of that scope was Scott Morrison's miracle back in 2019-...”

RUBY:

So, Paul, this week the Liberal Party is being asked questions about just how relevant they are as a political force, having been swept from office in New South Wales. They’re now about to face another test in Victoria in the seat of Aston. So to begin with, how much pressure has been on the Federal Leader Peter Dutton this week?

PAUL:

Well, the Government's made sure, Ruby, there's been tons of pressure on Peter Dutton in the run up to the Aston by-election tomorrow. But what’s also been putting pressure on him is a string of state election results that have been, well, disastrous for the Liberal Party, which suggests that brand ‘Liberal’ is on the nose with voters, and Saturday was no exception.

Archival tape – Antony Green:

“We’ve got quite a list of changing seats: we’ve got Labor's gain in Camden, East Hills, they’ve won Heathcoat, which they gained notionally through the redistribution, they’ve won Monaro, Parramatta, Penrith, Riverston, I think Ryde I've got a little bit of doubt over, South Coast they’ve won, I'm pretty sure about Terrigal…”

PAUL:

Now while it looks like…well, while there is a minority Labor government there, in fact, when you look at what happened on Saturday night, it was a landslide loss for the Coalition. While the Labor Party didn't pick up all the seats that the Libs and the Nats lost, they got enough to form a minority government, maybe they'll even get there with a slim majority. But over ten seats went to the Greens and the independents and that left the Liberals, as of now, about 12 seats behind Labor.

Archival tape – Sarah Ferguson:

“The people of New South Wales have changed their government, but they've also raised questions for the Liberal Party across the country, rather, after defeats federally and in Victoria. Brand ‘Liberal’ is in trouble.”

PAUL:

So it was a big loss. But on Tuesday when the Libs and the Nats in Canberra got together well, Peter Dutton, he took out some insurance against what may or may not happen tomorrow and he tried to give it all a bit of context. He told his troops that look, common sense will tell you that you shouldn't conflate state and federal results. And his deputy, Susan Ley, well, she tried to hose down the Dutton factor by saying that it was no bloodbath in New South Wales, which is a pretty rosy view of things. Some of the issues that we should probably keep in mind is that Peter Dutton wasn't welcome at all in New South Wales by Dom Perrottet and the State Liberals. And the Labor Party in New South Wales on Saturday had a very grim picture of Peter Dutton looking over the shoulder of Dom Perrottet in their posters at every polling booth in the state. So it'll be Peter Dutton's turn to be directly tested in the Aston by-election tomorrow. In fact, it's the first time he faces the voters as leader of the Liberal Party.

RUBY:

And Paul, a sitting government has not managed to win a seat off an opposition in a by-election for over a century in Australia. And it's safe to say that that's a record that Peter Dutton probably doesn't want to break this weekend. So if we look at the contest in Aston, what's the challenge for the Liberal Party?

PAUL:

Well, interestingly, the challenge will be to improve its position in a seat that has been rock solid Liberal for the past three decades. It was only at the last election where they suffered a 7% swing, two-party preferred after preferences, but a primary vote collapse of close to 12%. Now, Aston is in Melbourne's outer eastern suburbs. It's one of only three seats the Liberals hold in metropolitan Melbourne, and that's as a result of the Anti Morrison government swing in Victoria last year. But I think the biggest factor going there is still what you might call the Morrison and the Tudge factor. Alan Tudge was highly controversial, especially when it became public that he had an affair with a staffer. Don't forget the Liberals like to pride themselves on the Family values party, but it was also, and perhaps more pointedly, his role as the minister in charge of Robodebt. They were certainly reminded about it again in the Royal Commission, where Tudge gave a very embarrassing performance just a couple of months ago. So there is a thought that the people who voted against the Liberals or changed their vote just ten months ago in a way haven't been given any reason to go back. Although the Liberals will be hoping that their new candidate, Roshena Campbell, a woman, comes with a clean slate. And maybe that could encourage the former voters to come home to the liberal brand. I guess we'll see tomorrow.

RUBY:

And Paul, I'm sure that the opportunity to hand the federal liberals a loss isn't lost on the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese. It would be quite the way for Labor to finish this week. Do Labor strategists actually think that they have a chance of winning an Aston?

PAUL:

Well, we've been told that internal Labor polling, according to one source, gives the party a one in three chance. So they're still, you know, not odds on favourites, they’re an outside chance of getting there. And what we do know is it looks like it'll be tight. There's that 2.8% margin for the Libs to defend, which is very marginal. And we do know from Peter Dutton, even if he's only saying it to take out some insurance, he himself is expecting a very tight contest and probably hoping that the precedent of an Opposition not losing an election to a government for over 100 years could be the factor that’ll save his skin. The Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, in his party room on Tuesday, said look, the average swing against governments in these by-elections is 5%, so unless Peter Dutton gets a 5% swing against us, it can be considered a loss. But I think Dutton will bank any win, a win is a win as Bob Hawke used to say.

Even if he loses, by the way, any idea that that would deal a mortal blow to his leadership I think is wrong. I'm told that Dutton's party room is squarely behind him. In fact, most of them are members of his more conservative faction, although it would clearly damage his credibility and probably make the Liberals have to think hard ahead of the next election. But all of that’s to play out tomorrow, and is fascinating for political tragics like you and me.

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Paul, we've been talking about Dutton's week and I think we should also speak about what's actually been happening in Canberra because there's been some major negotiations with only a few sitting days before the May budget, but the Liberals have essentially sidelined themselves, haven't they, Paul?

PAUL:

Look, they have Ruby and that has some even on his own side, wondering about the political strategy of, well, not coming onto the field to play, being observers, and virtually saying no to everything of any real consequence. We saw this week, for example, three major pieces of legislation that the government wanted passed before the May budget. Now, the coalition could have joined with Labor. It could have moved amendments, for example, on the Climate Change Action Bill, The Safeguard Mechanism, but it left it all to the Greens and the crossbench to do the negotiating. And the interesting thing about that is it sends a clear message, even to the voters of Aston, that Peter Dutton doesn't take climate change any more seriously than Morrison or the Liberals have over the past decade. So the Coalition sat out on the Climate Change Action bill. They sat out on another bill to boost manufacturing in Australia and they're sitting out on another bill on housing affordability and social housing. So there is real weight to Anthony Albanese accusing Peter Dutton of leading what he says is a ‘noalition’. They're just saying no, they haven't got any ideas of their own and they're just being spoilers and wreckers.

RUBY:

Okay. And away from the policy, Paul, there were some kind of strange scenes in Parliament this week. The Speaker of the House asked members of the Opposition benches to apologise to the Parliament after a female staffer was injured on the floor. What happened, exactly?

PAUL:

This is really almost inexplicable, I've got to tell you, Ruby.

Archival tape – Chamber representative:

“Honourable Members: The Speaker.”

PAUL:

So there were a series of votes or divisions in the House late Tuesday. Now, when a division is called, it means everything stops in the Parliament. The bells are rung for 2 minutes and members have to take their place and then sit there on either side of the Parliament until the vote is formally counted and their names are taken. So when the speaker says “lock the doors”, the doors are literally locked. But the standing orders say once the speaker says that anyone in the chamber has to stay there and anyone outside can't come in.

Archival tape – Milton Dick:

“Lock the doors. Lock the doors, immediately. No, lock the doors! Those members will need to return to the chamber immediately.”

PAUL:

Well, when the speaker said shut the doors, a number of Liberals, including quite senior ones on the frontbench, decided they didn't want to waste their time any more sitting around for another five or 10 minutes for a vote on an amendment that was going down anyway and they ran for the doors. They were so keen to get out that they pushed a female attendant against the door, injuring her arm.

Archival tape – Milton Dick:

“Before we proceed with business today, I want to address a very serious and grave incident that occurred during the division yesterday afternoon.”

PAUL:

Speaker Milton Dick said he was disgusted with the behaviour of seven of the Coalition members. He named them and he got them to apologise on the floor of the Parliament.

Archival tape – Milton Dick:

“I'm now going to give indulgence to members who left the chamber, following my orders lock the doors, to apologise to the House for their actions.”

PAUL:

With Andrew Hastie...

Archival tape – Andrew Hastie:

“Thank you, Mr. Speaker. I also apologise unreservedly to you in the House for attempting to leave after the doors were to be locked.”

PAUL:

Angus Taylor...

Archival tape – Angus Taylor:

“I apologise to the House, Speaker, for leaving the House after your directions were given.”

PAUL:

Ted O'Brien...

Archival tape – Ted O'Brien:

“Mr. Speaker, I too unreservedly apologise to the House.”

PAUL:

And Dan Tehan.

Archival tape – Dan Tehan:

“Speaker, I left the House, as you were saying, close the doors, and I apologise for my conduct.”

Archival tape – Milton Dick:

“I thank the member. We shall now move on with the business of the day.”

PAUL:

Of course, if they didn't want to do that, the numbers are with the government and the crossbench. They could have been excluded from Parliament for a number of days even, but they were suitably contrite as they needed to be.

RUBY:

Okay, so taking all of this into account, Paul, and looking more broadly at where the Liberals find themselves at this moment, do you think that the party is still perhaps in a post-election slump or are these recent results in New South Wales and the sidelining in Parliament - is this all a sign that something more is going wrong here? Is the party at risk of becoming more irrelevant?

PAUL:

Peter Dutton, in the last ten months, has really done nothing to distance the Coalition from the Morrison Government. He hasn't flagged any new direction. He says that come the next election, he will take a suite of, quote, positive policies and he'll continue to stand up for what we believe in. But it's what the Liberals seem to believe in that is the trouble at this time. We saw in Victoria the Victorian state Liberal Party at war with itself over the issue of transgender rights. Now, Kos Samaras, who's the director at Redbridge political consultancy, says that Peter Dutton hasn't established a new political personality, while at the same time the electorate has seen more of Anthony Albanese, and according to all the published opinion polls, they are so far liking what they're seeing. So there is a huge challenge out there for Peter Dutton to decide whether he wants to lead a party more of the centre right or continue to lead a party more of the fringe right.

RUBY:

Yeah, and I suppose Paul, we will know a lot more about the Coalition's political fortunes after the election on Saturday. So what will you be looking for in the results?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, the most obvious thing everybody will be looking for will be whether there is a break with historical precedent. and we see a government actually taking a seat from the opposition. If that happens, it’ll certainly put the Liberals right back further than where they are already. If they manage to hang on, it'll give Peter Dutton some breathing space. The problem there is, if they do win, it could reinforce the conservative forces in the Liberal Party room thinking, look, there you go, we can win an election without going woke on climate or women or issues of The Voice and equity. So a win there could in a sense be a fair victory. We’ll probably talk about all of this next week, Ruby.

RUBY:

Can't wait. Paul, thank you so much for your time.

PAUL:

Thank you. Bye.

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Also in the news today…

Clive Palmer is enlisting the help of former attorney general Christian Porter in a $300 billion dollar legal claim against the Western Australian government.

Palmer’s Singapore-based company is suing the state for lost profits after pulling the pin on his Pilbara iron ore project.

Palmer has said that if he wins, some of the money will be used to build hospitals and start a daily newspaper in the state.

And,

The UN has agreed to investigate the legal consequences of climate change for the first time.

The advisory opinion could begin to establish a legal framework for countries most affected by climate change, pursuing compensation from countries that are the biggest emitters.

The UN vote was the result of a four year push by a group of law students from the Pacific islands.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Zoltan Fecso, Cheyne Anderson, and James Milsom.

Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow. Our editor is Scott Mitchell.

Sarah McVeigh is our Head of Audio, and Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing this week by Laura Hancock, Andy Elston, and Atticus Bastow.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See you next week.

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