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DANIEL:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Daniel James, this is 7am.

Kevin Rudd does not appear to like Donald Trump. And the feeling is mutual.

The Australian Ambassador to the US has a history of criticising Trump, making it hard to imagine how the two can have a constructive working relationship once the president-elect gets into the White House in January.

There’s speculation that Kevin Rudd may not survive in the role for long.

Today, special correspondent for The Saturday Paper Jason Koutsoukis, on whether the Albanese government can stand up to pressure from the future Trump Administration, and the message it sends if it doesn’t.

It’s Friday, November 15.

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DANIEL:

Jason, thanks for joining us.

JASON:

Daniel, It's a pleasure to be with you.

DANIEL:

A few months ago on this podcast, you said that if Donald Trump wins the election, we may see a lot more of Scott Morrison. Is that still potentially the case?

JASON:

I think so, Daniel, because Scott Morrison is on the same side of politics as Donald Trump. He knows Donald Trump. He's dealt with him when he was prime minister. He's also had some meetings with the president-elect since he was no longer prime minister. He’s been over there in Washington and had a couple meetings with Donald Trump. And of course, Scott Morrison is the original architect of the Orcas security partnership with, with the US and the UK.

And if Donald Trump is going to need some convincing that orcas is good for the US as well as being good for Australia, then Scott Morrison's probably a really good person to try to convince Donald Trump of that.

DANIEL:

Do you think Scott Morrison is positioning himself to become ambassador at some point?

JASON:

I think Scott Morrison would love to be Australia's ambassador to the United States. But I do think that's very unlikely, mainly because of the personal enmity between Anthony Albanese and Scott Morrison. Anthony Albanese has such little respect for Scott Morrison as a parliamentarian and as a politician that I just cannot see him wanting to ever appoint Scott Morrison to anything, let alone Australia's most important diplomatic posting.

DANIEL:

So we're talking about this because since President Trump has been President-elect Trump, it's exposed the relationship between our current ambassador, Kevin Rudd, and Trump himself. They don't have the best relationship, do they?

JASON:

Well, I'm not sure if they've ever met. But what we do know is that Kevin Rudd spent a lot of time in recent years disparaging Donald Trump. Since Joe Biden became president, Kevin Rudd has been out there making some very highly, you know, highly critical comments about Donald Trump.

Audio Excerpt - Kevin Rudd:

“General consensus amongst anyone concerned with the public policy process, domestic or international, thinks he's nuts,”

JASON:

He’s also called Trump a village idiot. In one television interview that was unearthed this week.

Audio Excerpt - Kevin Rudd:

“It's in the last four years has been run by a village idiot, competent in international statecraft and the United States increasingly incompetent in international statecraft under Trump.”

JASON:

You know, one person I spoke to this week said that a lot of these comments that Rudd has made about Donald Trump are like a ticking time bomb that are just sort of waiting to be discovered by the media. And as soon as Donald Trump sees that he could, you know, he's probably going to seize on it and start hitting back pretty hard, I would think.

Audio Excerpt - Speaker:

“And he's now Australia's ambassador in Washington.”

Audio Excerpt - Donald Trump:

“Yeah, well, I don't know.”

Audio Excerpt - Speaker:

“Would you have a phone call?”

Audio Excerpt - Donald Trump:

“He won't be there longer if that's the case. I don't know much about him. I heard he was a little bit nasty. I hear he's not the brightest bulb, but I don't know much about him.”

DANIEL:

Because Kevin Rudd's been cleaning up his social media, hasn’t he? Removing a little of all posts in which he's been critical of Trump and people around Trump, hasn't he?

JASON:

That's right. And I think people here in Canberra and probably in Washington are asking why it's taken Kevin Rudd so long to delete those social media posts. And does it suggest that perhaps Kevin Rudd didn't think that Donald Trump was going to win in the first place and so he didn't have to.

Audio Excerpt - Unknown:

“He has decided to delete the comments after President Trump has been elected. Yeah, it doesn't show great sincerity. If Kamala Harris had been elected, then I presume the comment could still be up online.”

JASON:

But Rudd's act of deleting those social media posts has certainly got a lot of attention. The New York Times ran a story about it. A lot of Australian media outlets have, have covered it, so it certainly would not have been missed by the incoming members of the next Trump administration.

DANIEL:

So apart from deleting his previous social media posts, he's actually been quite active in trying to repair his standing with Trump and his people. And can you tell us a little bit about that?

JASON:

I think what everyone has been saying about Kevin Rudd is that he's worked extremely hard since he became Australia's ambassador to Washington in March last year building strong ties, not just with the Biden administration and people in the Biden White House, but reaching across that congressional aisle to build strong ties with senior Republicans who are, you know, in the Senate, in the House of Representatives and Republicans who are in Trump's orbit. The question, of course, is can he sustain that with Trump in the White House?

And I think, one very worrying sign for Kevin Rudd is the tweet that Dan Scavino, who's going to be Trump's deputy chief of staff, posted Wednesday. It had an image of Trump's congratulations. But above that he posted a gif of an hourglass suggesting that Rudd's time as ambassador is running out.

Dan Scavino is a very aggressive player of the political game. If he's posting things like that about Kevin Rudd already, it suggests that Rudd's going to be in for a pretty hard time and that, you know, members of the Trump administration are not going to forget what Rudd has said about Trump. And then they're not going to let Trump forget that either.

DANIEL:

How long can Anthony Albanese keep backing Kevin Rudd in the face of mounting pressure? That’s after the break.

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DANIEL:

Jason, the Albanese government is publicly standing by Kevin Rudd, and people in the Opposition are as well. How sustainable do you think that is going to be in the long term?

JASON:

Well, I think in terms of members of the Albanese government, certainly the Prime Minister is standing by Kevin Rudd and members, members of his Cabinet, certainly in public are coming out very strongly in favour of keeping Rudd in Washington. And yes, Peter Dutton and other members of the Opposition are also offering qualified support for Rudd.

Audio Excerpt - Unknown:

“As many would point out, the president-elect has just named secretary of state who had some pretty sharp things to say about him, but who ultimately campaigned alongside him. He's been elected alongside a vice president who had very sharp, pointed things to say about him. But who he chose to make his running mate. So I think we've got to be conscious of keeping an open mind, which is what we have tried to do in relation to the question around Kevin.”

JASON:

But I think below the surface, Peter Dutton and his team are very happy to keep this issue bubbling along and they see this as a huge chance to score a big political win on the Prime Minister to damage his credibility. And, you know, because if Kevin Rudd does fall and he so that's going to be hugely embarrassing for Anthony Albanese. He made this choice to send Rudd to Washington. You know, Peter Dutton would say political opportunity here. So, they'll be stoking this fire for as long as they can I think.

I think up until this point, Kevin Rudd would be able to brush this off. Kevin Rudd's a very experienced politician. He's got very thick skin. Up to this point, it's probably water off a duck's back. But being, you know, the astute diplomat that Kevin Rudd is an astute reader of international politics. He'll know when his position does become untenable. I think, if he sees himself that he doesn't have any access to the White House, then I don't think he's going to have any trouble coming to the view that he would need to go.

DANIEL:

What would it say about Australia's relationship with the United States if Kevin Rudd Was withdrawn or whether he fell on his sword? What kind of message does that send from the outset of a new Trump presidency?

JASON:

Well, a lot of the senior sort of foreign policy establishment here in Canberra think it would be, you know, the ultimate sort of craven act. Dennis Richardson, one of the most respected public servants Australia has. He's a former ambassador to Washington himself. He is a former secretary of the Department of Defence and in Foreign Affairs. He's made it pretty clear in the strongest possible terms that he thinks that a decision to recall Kevin Rudd would be just absolutely craven act of cowardice. He thinks that the only thing that Anthony Albanese should be doing right now is offering Kevin Rudd his unqualified support and to stand up to any pressure to recall Kevin Rudd or put pressure on him to resign. You know, in Denis Richardson's words, this is really just a media sort of furore that's been created by the Murdoch media empire here in Australia and that the government should just ignore it.

DANIEL:

And finally, Jason, that's all well and good, but do you think the Albanese Government can and will stand up to Donald Trump if that amount of pressure starts to come Albanese's way?

JASON:

Well, I think if Donald Trump comes out and directly criticises Kevin Rudd, perhaps he might be watching Fox News and they start running a story about Kevin Rudd's past comments about Trump and that Trump comes out and attacks Kevin Rudd. Then I think Kevin Rudd's position does become untenable and he would have no choice but to fall on his sword. Anthony Albanese is probably not going to try to get in the way of Kevin Rudd doing that because the thing that is fundamentally in Australia's national interest is that the Australian Ambassador to Washington has access to the US President. And if Donald Trump makes it clear that that's not going to happen, then Kevin Rudd probably would have to go.

DANIEL:

Jason, it's going to be an interesting time. Thank you for your time.

JASON:

Daniel, it's been a pleasure talking with you. Thank you very much.

DANIEL:

You can read Jason Koutsoukis’s full report in tomorrow’s edition of The Saturday Paper.

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DANIEL:

Also in the news today,

Prime Minister Albanese has joined world leaders including US President Joe Biden and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping in Peru for the APEC summit.

Although Donald Trump won’t be there, it’s expected his “America First” doctrine will be top of mind, as Trump continues to announce his second-term cabinet of figures that support his hardline tariffs and protectionist agenda.

And, up to 51% of migrant women have been harassed at work, with nearly three quarters too afraid to report it over fears it could impact their immigration status.

The findings were published in a survey by Union NSW which found that construction, horticulture and hospitality were the main industries where migrant women experienced harassment, and that many who did report their experiences were met with bullying, underpayment, or were fired.

The report calls for specific visa protections for women to report harassment without fear of recrimination.

7am is a daily show from Schwartz Media and The Saturday Paper. It’s made by Atticus Bastow, Cheyne Anderson, Chris Dengate, Me - Daniel James, Erik Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah McVeigh, Travis Evans and Zoltan Fecso.

Thanks for listening. See you next week.

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