ASHLYNNE:

Hi then, before we get into this episode, a quick update for you.

Audio excerpt – Antony Blinken:

“A deal was on the table that was virtually identical to proposal that Hamas put forward on May the 6th. A deal that the entire world is behind. A deal Israel is accepted. And Hamas could have answered with a single word. Yes.”

ASHLYNNE:

Late last night, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken appeared in front of the cameras with President Joe Biden’s ceasefire proposal teetering on the brink of collapse.

Audio excerpt – Antony Blinken:

“Based on what we saw last night, the response from Hamas. Numerous changes proposed to the deal that was on the table and that the entire world has gotten behind. But some of those are workable changes. Some, as I said, are not. I don't want to characterise it further.”

ASHLYNNE:

We don’t know how far apart Hamas, Israel and the United States are, who's agreed to what, or what the disagreements are over, but we know two things: for now, the war will continue and Antony Blinken still believes Joe Biden’s plan to end it can work.

Audio excerpt – Speaker:

“I believe those gaps are reachable. Doesn't mean they will be bridged, because, again, it ultimately depends on people saying yes.”

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ASHLYNNE:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ashlynne McGhee. This is 7am.

There’s another proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza - and this one seems to be gathering a bit of momentum.

It’s not wildly different to the plans that came before it - but this one’s been backed by the UN Security Council.

The resolution passed by the council said Israel accepted the ceasefire deal and in a statement Hamas has welcomed the adoption of the resolution. But today, it appears like a deal might not be reached with the US saying Hamas has come back with changes that cannot be accepted.

Today - Senior Foreign Affairs Reporter for The Huffington Post US - Akbar Shahid Ahmed on whether we’re any closer to a ceasefire.

It’s Thursday June 13.

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ASHLYNNE:

Akbar, a few weeks ago, US President Joe Biden laid out his plan for a ceasefire in Gaza. And now that seems to be the plan the international community is getting behind. But the ceasefire, of course, hasn't happened yet. Can you explain where this proposal came from and what it's up to now?

AKBAR:

Yeah, absolutely. So the Biden administration's current ceasefire proposal is a multi-phased plan. The idea is you stop fighting for an initial period of a few weeks, allow some hostages to be released, hostages held by Hamas and allied groups inside Gaza also allow a lot more aid to get into Gaza, so it gets the Palestinians some relief as well. And in that period, while there's a temporary halt, negotiate the conditions for a more permanent, lasting ceasefire.

Audio excerpt – Joe Biden:

“I want to give an update on my efforts to end the crisis in Gaza.”

AKBAR:

This is a proposal that's not entirely new. President Biden unveiled it on May 31st in a speech from the White House.

Audio excerpt – Joe Biden:

“For the past several months, my negotiators of foreign policy and intelligence community alike have been relentlessly focussed, not just on a ceasefire that would, that would inevitably be fragile and temporary, but on a durable end of the war.”

AKBAR:

But actually, this was kind of the broad contours of the deal that Hamas, the US, Egypt, Qatar and Israel had been talking about a month prior.

Audio excerpt – Joe Biden:

“This new proposal has three phases, three. The first phase would last for six weeks. Here's what it would include. A full and complete ceasefire.”

AKBAR:

What I think is really important is that we've had the deal. We've had these contours, we've known these principles for this amount of time now, I mean, close to six weeks and we haven't been able to make progress, right?

If anything that's just been repeated airstrikes that have been hugely costly within Gaza, killing dozens of civilians. There's been some progress on the hostage front. The Israelis were able to have a raid by their release, you know, four hostages.

Audio excerpt – Benjamin Netanyahu:

“We're committed to getting the release of all the hostages, and we expect Hamas to release them all. But if they don't, we'll do whatever it takes to get them all back home.”

AKBAR:

But actual major progress hasn't happened. And from my sources, including people inside the Biden administration, the understanding is very much that there's a lack of pressure from the US side, right? So the US, as the primary diplomatic and military backer for Israel, has that kind of leverage over the Israelis.

So the the person that the US can bring alongside is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But we've seen from the start of this war that President Biden has really struggled with that. Rhetorically, he's sort of pushed Prime Minister Netanyahu to temper his campaign to do more, to shield civilians, to allow him more aid.

But repeatedly, there's been a pattern from the Biden administration of relying on rhetoric and persuasion rather than actual consequences for the Israeli side. And that's kind of the problem now with the ceasefire proposal, where they've got the US has endorsed it. They've got a lot of other countries. The UN Security Council passed resolution broadly endorsing it.

None of that is a way to actually force Israel to accept it, right? And so we've seen repeatedly Israeli officials say, well, this deal doesn't doesn't address our fundamental goal, which is not just, getting home hostages, but also degrading Hamas to a huge degree and also not allowing future Hamas control and influence inside Gaza.

Audio excerpt – Benjamin Netanyahu (Translation):

“We have gone a long way to return the hostages while keeping the war's objectives in mind, primarily the elimination of Hamas. We insist that we will achieve both. It's all part of the plan.”

AKBAR:

The Biden administration has tried to argue, oh, this is in Israel's own best interests by having this deal right, given the reputational harm they're facing and the ongoing issue of the hostages. For Prime Minister Netanyahu, I don't think that's quite clear yet.

ASHLYNNE:

So what's the U.S. playing at here, then? And talk to me about how they're framing it, saying it's supported by or backed by the Israelis, and then they put a whole lot of pressure on Hamas to accept it. So what's the strategy here?

AKBAR:

Yeah. So they've tried to say this was an Israeli plan, and the US are just kind of pushing from behind.

Audio excerpt – Antony Blinken:

“Look, Israel accepted the proposal as it was and as it is. Hamas didn't. So I think it's pretty clear what, what needs to happen. And we're determined in the, in the coming days to again try to work this.”

AKBAR:

That's very hard to do when the Israelis themselves, as your friend and ally, are actually saying every single day, notice isn't our plan right now or it's acceptance. This doesn't address our concerns.

For the Biden administration, the motivation is, it's twofold, right? I mean, that's it's political domestically. That's just huge pressure, huge dissatisfaction, particularly among President Biden's own Democrats, lawmakers, but also just regular voters and citizens. I mean, who have been demonstrating, who don't understand why U.S. taxpayer dollars are involved in airstrikes that are killing children. Simultaneously the Biden administration just doesn't want to be talking about this, you know, from a strategic foreign policy point of view.

You're not going to be able to draw international attention, and you're not even going to be able to win over kind of the credibility and trust you need from other governments to have them sign on to your other proposals, which is what the Biden administration desperately wants.

ASHLYNNE:

So you mentioned earlier the rescue of those four hostages over the weekend. What's that done to the chances of a ceasefire. Has it complicated the chances of getting agreement on this deal?

AKBAR:

Yeah, I think it was a really complex moment for the US, right? Because there's of course jubilation that these hostages, one of them, you know, who has a terminal ill mother, that they were able to be released and brought back into Israel and reunited with their families.

However, this is kind of underscored Prime Minister Netanyahu's commitment to a military approach.

Now, we haven't seen a military first approach to rescuing hostages. Bring home the vast majority, right? Really, it's been less than a dozen. And if anything, you've actually seen Israeli military actions also take out and kill a number of hostages, tragically. But it does make it easier for Prime Minister Netanyahu to challenge the Biden administration and say, well, I'm achieving the goals of the war.

At the same time publicly, they are debating strategy, the Biden administration saying, you're not going to get much further in defeating Hamas or bringing home your hostages with your current approach. And the Israeli message is essentially, we're going to make it happen, trust us.

And because the Biden administration is unwilling to pull back on any of that support, right? US intelligence, US support is still enabling Israeli ground operations, and airstrikes, they don't really have any more chips to play towards the Israelis other than trying to outsmart them.

ASHLYNNE:

Talk to me a little bit more about that pressure that Benjamin Netanyahu is under. And you mentioned there both the internal politics and the external as well. But he's got the US secretary of State, Antony Blinken, in town this week, that’s gonna put a whole lot more pressure on him. So talk to me about what’s feeling right now.

AKBAR:

Yeah. So, for Prime Minister Netanyahu, there's a real impetus to not be seen as totally adrift from the US, right? Most Israelis do see the US as their primary defender in a very complex neighbourhood, as their longtime ally. So Netanyahu can't come right out and sort of give the finger to the Biden administration, much as he personally might like to, right? I mean, this is a leader who has been much more supportive of Donald Trump than of Democrats over many years.

He is meeting with Secretary Blinken. He will smile. He'll do the photo op. But what we know is that behind closed doors, he's essentially either telling the Americans, I just have no interest in doing what you want, moving towards a ceasefire or kind of telling them one thing. And then as soon as Blinken or whoever he's meeting leaves, doing exactly the opposite.

Now, why does he do exactly the opposite? That gets to the question of his internal pressures.

Prime Minister Netanyahu depends right now on the most far right government in Israeli history. He's brought into power these ministers, who many other Israeli political parties had for decades seen as persona non grata because of extremist views on Palestinians in particular, but also on a range of issues.

So Netanyahu knows that that coalition he has is very shaky. And because of the leeway and influence he has over the far right, he's more likely to lean on these kind of more extreme ministers, ministers who would not support a ceasefire deal with Hamas and who very much want to see, even if it's strategically unsound, very much want to see Israel take these huge steps like re-occupying parts of Gaza, sustaining security control, even threatening Israel's decades old peace treaty with Egypt. Right? So that's real national security concerns. And what these ministers are politically urging Netanyahu to do.

ASHLYNNE:

After the break - why some describe President Biden’s peace bid as a hail mary pass.

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ASHLYNNE:

Akbar, a number of US officials have recently resigned over the Biden administration's position on Gaza. Tell me more about what's going on for them internally and the pressure that that's putting on the US president?

AKBAR:

Yeah. You know, Ashlynne, in more than a decade of covering foreign policy from Washington. I've never seen this degree of dissent and frustration among foreign policy professionals, right? Experts. I think the reason for that is, there's a real sense that national security expertise has been sidelined by the Biden administration since October 7th. And that's led a lot of people who have been working on these issues for years to quit, starting with someone called Josh Paul. I was the first to reveal his resignation in October.

Audio excerpt – Josh Paul:

“Well, I've actually heard since I left from so many scores of people, not only from within the State Department, but from across the U.S. government...”

AKBAR:

And this was someone who was an arms dealer, essentially for the U.S. government, right? I mean, overseeing weapons transfers to some really questionable regimes like Saudi Arabia, even he felt, look, at least internally, before we were having a debate over these weapons transfers following October 7th. We've been quite silenced and stifled.

Audio excerpt – Josh Paul:

“…all saying that they are finding what is being done incredibly difficult, to, to, support, incredibly difficult to comprehend, and yet are being met with silence, or with being told, they should stop questioning the policy and just move ahead.”

AKBAR:

Now that happened back in October. After that, we didn't see a resignation at a high level until January. And now, just in this calendar year, we're sitting in June. We've seen, in fact, close to ten more.

You've seen people resign from non foreign policy related departments. Such as the Department of Education, Department of interior. One of them was, you know, the first Jewish-American appointee to resign. She sat up and said, look, President Biden, someone I signed up to work for, is in fact, making Jews in America less safe. I don't want to be part of this and that.

Audio excerpt – Lily Greenberg:

“Not only does it is it devastating for Palestinians, right. But I think October 7th made it very, very clear that it also doesn't keep Israeli safe and that if we wanted to actually create a thriving future for Israelis, for Palestinians, for Jews, for the communities that we care about here in America, something has to change.”

AKBAR:

You've seen someone who was an Arab American stand up and say, I don't want to feel implicated in the mass deaths of people from my community.

Audio excerpt – Tariq Habash:

“Wasn't a particular moment in time. I think it was a culmination of near-daily dehumanisation of Palestinian lives in Gaza in the West Bank.”

AKBAR:

And then you've seen a number of national security experts. So people from the military to more people from the State Department.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter:

“Stacey Gilbert served as senior advisor in the State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration, which is the State Department's chief humanitarian office.”

AKBAR:

And in fact, just this last official, Stacey Gilbert, is someone who's been doing that work for more than 20 years. She quit over a specific report, right she quit over this support the Biden administration produced last month, which was supposed to be just a factual analysis of allegations of Israel breaking international law using U.S. equipment.

Audio excerpt – Stacey Gilbert:

“I was shocked, however, that it also went on to say that Israel. It is our assessment that Israel is not blocking humanitarian assistance. That is not, that is not the view of subject matter experts at the State Department, at USAID, nor among the humanitarian community…”

Audio excerpt – Unknown:

“We are not an administration or a department that twists the facts and allegations that we have are unfounded. But, this is, as any report and as any process, that is undertaken in a policy making process that these processes are deliberative and they involve inputs from people, at a variety of, seniority, and expert levels.”

ASHLYNNE:

What are people who are still inside the administration telling you at the moment?

AKBAR:

I think the ongoing offensive in Rafah is extremely concerning to a lot of people, because more than a million Palestinians have now fled, over the past month since Israel launched this operation. And importantly, this was precisely the operation President Biden had said he could not support. So I think that was a lot of hope.

Look, these are people who have signed up to join government, right? They are fundamentally institutionalist. They believe that the system works. And when a leader like President Biden says, I have a red line on Rafah, I will not give the Israelis military assistance to go into this final refuge for Palestinians. They believe him, right? And they really take that seriously.

I think the repeated sort of collapse and emptiness of promises like that around the report around the Rafah offensive have deeply disillusioned people. I wouldn't be surprised if there were more resignations. It's important to remember there are. There could be many. We just don't know about why people haven't come out publicly and said it.

But I do hear that as the Rafah offensive grinds on, as this kind of huge strikes killing dozens of children become more common. And famine is underway in Gaza. As people die of preventable reasons. Right? Aid can get through famine, support can get through. It just isn't. That's pushing more people towards that breaking point. At the State Department intelligence community, in the military, and other related agencies.

ASHLYNNE:

Akbar finally, what do you think will force the next move here? When will we see some movement and some practical steps towards peace?

AKBAR:

I think there's a few factions to look at. That's political pressure for President Biden. He has, presidential debate with Donald Trump coming up at the end of June. And I think he knows that Gaza will be a big issue, that he'll want something he can talk about positively at that moment, if his ceasefire proposal doesn't go through, if he can't get the Israelis to agree to it, I think you'll see some scrambling by the campaign and demonstration to get some other truncated version of a halt in fighting.

I think something one insider described to me earlier this week was with the ceasefire proposal. President Biden did what we call a Hail Mary pass, right? I mean, he he really said, I'm just going to pull it all out there, call this an Israeli thing and try to create pressure on them. Ten days in, the Israelis have resisted the pressure. It's a sound off now. It's a game of chicken.

But they will have to try another move from the Biden administration side. And that could take the form of circumventing the Israelis. There's been some talk about a direct American Hamas deal on at least some of the hostages.

I also think just finally, as we see risks of other wars increase, also in southern Lebanon and northern Israel, that could affect the administration's thinking.

If that happens, that's extremely scary for President Biden in terms of wider war, bringing in Iran, bringing in the US. And I think you could see a different behaviour from him then.

ASHLYNNE:

Akbar thanks so much for your time. It's been great to chat.

AKBAR:

Thanks for having me, Ashlynne.

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ASHLYNNE:

Also in the news today…

The premier of Victoria has issued a statement in support of the young women and parents at a Victorian school, after the arrest of a teen who allegedly created explicit deepfake images of 50 female students.

In her statement, premier Jacinta Allan said, quote “there is no place for this disgraceful and misogynistic conduct in Victoria.”

And…

Despite the cost-of-living crisis, executives at top Australian companies are receiving generous pay-rises, according to a report from the Governance Institute of Australia.

It found CEO salaries at the top 200 ASX-listed companies rose by 14 per cent in the last financial year, from an average of $1.14 million dollars, to $1.37 million per year.

That’s all from the team at 7am for today. My name is Ashlynne McGhee. Thanks for your company. I’ll see you again tomorrow.

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