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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

This week, the federal government has faced anger, outrage, and criticism over its response to the catastrophic floods in Queensland and NSW. And the Prime Minister Scott Morrison is facing another, related, problem: disquiet within his own ranks about his leadership.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno on how precarious the Prime Minister’s position might be.

It’s Friday, March 11.

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RUBY:

So, Paul, I know that you've been talking to members of the coalition this week and that the topic of Scott Morrison's leadership has come up, and I just want to say that this is quite a difficult thing for us to talk about and to report on because you can't give too much air to anonymous leaks to politicians who might want to undermine a leader without actually putting their names to it. So with that in mind, what do you think that we should know about what's being said about Scott Morrison within his own party right now?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, I think we're entitled to know that it's not just people talking, it's not off the record disgruntled employees saying they're unhappy and I'd like a change of leader. I can confirm that a senior member of the government, a minister no less in Scott Morrison's cabinet, has been contacting “like minded” colleagues by email to arrange meetings where they can discuss what's seen as a crisis with Morrison's leadership. One recipient told me and I quote “the last time this happened, the leader was toppled.”

RUBY:

Right, ok, so that's obviously a reference to the former prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull?

PAUL:

Well, the MP didn't nominate whether it was Turnbull or Tony Abbott, but the emails are going out, organising before the next party room get-together, which will be at the end of the month for the budget. And this could be a potential killing field for the prime minister. As my source says, this is exactly what happens before a coup. Numbers are marshalled, the waters are tested. Both the Morrison and Dutton camps did this before the move on Malcolm Turnbull and as we know, Morrison's people proved better at these dark arts. Well, I have to tell you this isn't a done deal as I understand it. But one Liberal MP says and I quote, “anything could happen - stay tuned”.

RUBY:

Hmm. So are we really back here again, Paul, in this position where leaders can be knifed without warning? Are we in the killing season?

PAUL:

Well, I must say it looks and sounds like it, Ruby. I spoke to a senior Liberal backbencher from New South Wales, Morrison's home state, who told me that basically Peter Dutton was a better option, and the quote there was “Dutts would save the furniture”. Others, particularly in Victoria, strongly disagree. Their preferred candidate would be Josh Frydenberg, who was, of course, one of their own. And in their view, with a more use- friendly image.

RUBY:

OK, but obviously neither Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg are actually saying that they would challenge for the leadership role?

PAUL:

Well, that's right, Ruby. The consensus is Peter Dutton is more enthusiastic - he was around this week in the media trying to reset his image.

Archival Tape – David Koch:

“Peter Dutton, where are the troops?”

Archival Tape – Peter Dutton:

“Morning, Kochie. Well, they're spreading out right across northern New South Wales…”

PAUL:

The defence minister went on Sunrise for what proved to be a tough interview that had him on the back foot.

Archival Tape – David Koch:

“God help us if we were going to war, we wouldn't stand a chance if it took this long to get ourselves organised. What's going on? Why aren't they there quicker?”

Archival Tape – Peter Dutton:

“Well, Kochie, if you're on the ground, you'd be able to see them. There are seven hundred and sixty people. The images that you’ve seen of trucks and troops rolling in-…”

Archival Tape – David Koch:

“We want five thousand!”

Archival Tape – Peter Dutton:

“Well, we're providing thousands more…”

PAUL:

The interview was set up to counter the argument that the government's response to the floods was late, especially in mobilising the army.

Archival Tape – David Koch:

“Ordinary Australians are having to get themselves to remote areas in their dinghies, wading through flood waters to help people, to take them food and to make sure they’re alright.”

Archival Tape – Peter Dutton:

“No, Kochie, I mean, that's the Australian spirit. That's what you and I would do for our neighbours. And that's what people do-... “

Archival Tape – David Koch:

“Absolutely! And we want the ADF to do that for us as well!”

Archival Tape – Peter Dutton:

“So no, I'm not embarrassed by it…”

PAUL:

Well, as for Frydenberg, he says he wants the job one day, but not yet. He says he's loyal to the Prime Minister. And my colleague Karen Middleton, you might remember, reported in the Saturday Paper a few weeks ago there are people in the party actively pushing for Frydenberg to run, if only to make sure they don't end up with Peter Dutton as leader.

RUBY:

And is that because they think that Peter Dutton would cost them seats because he's seen as too tough and as unpopular with voters?

PAUL:

Well, it's true, Ruby. There's polling being shared that puts Dutton right down the bottom as preferred candidate with the public, and there's a strong view that in Victoria and elsewhere, he would see them lose seats. The logic is pretty simple: Dutton might be popular in Queensland or parts of Queensland, but they can't really win any more seats in that state, and he would almost certainly cost them seats elsewhere. But you know, Ruby, the point of all of this is we are dealing with desperation. That's the mindset.

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Paul, we've been talking about the tension around the Liberal leadership, but I do want to go back to the beginning of this week because it has been another huge news week Paul with all the catastrophic flooding on the East Coast, a lot has happened. So how did it all begin for Scott Morrison?

PAUL:

Well, to kick off the week, the government was shopping a story designed to generate national security headlines. And they think this area is definitely a winner for them.

Archival Tape – Scott Morrison

“Today, I can announce that the government has decided to establish a future submarine base on the East Coast of Australia as well…”

PAUL:

On Monday, there was the promise of a $10 billion East Coast nuclear submarine base to be built sometime in the next 20 years.

Archival Tape – Scott Morrison

“Establishing a second submarine base on our East Coast will enhance our strategic deterrent capability with significant advantages in operational, training, personnel…”

PAUL:

Well, appearing on Radio 2GB that morning, Morrison could have expected to start off with questions about what he thought was a big announcement. Classic popular, conservative stuff.

Archival Tape – Ben Fordham:

“Prime Minister Scott Morrison joins us live on the line. PM Good morning to you”

Archival Tape – Scott Morrison

“Good morning, Ben.”

PAUL:

Instead, the interview was all about the event that really immediately mattered to people: the unprecedented floods in eastern Australia.

Archival Tape – Ben Fordham:

“It's 2022. We're not a third world country. How do we still have entire communities cut off and stranded?”

Archival Tape – Scott Morrison

“Well Ben, these are terrible, terrible floods, as you've said…”

PAUL:

The first question was pointedly hostile relating to the 14 metre flood that destroyed Lismore and devastated other northern New South Wales communities.

Archival Tape – Ben Fordham:

“I appreciate that these responsibilities are shared between the Commonwealth and the state and also local government. But I'll tell you what PM, they're still crying out for help.”

Archival Tape – Scott Morrison:

“I know Ben, and that's why the effort continues. I mean, specifically, food drops were…were done and Mullumbimby by the ADF within the past 24 hours…”

PAUL:

And then the interview quickly moved to the tardy deployment of the military to supplement an inadequate state emergency services response.

Archival Tape – Scott Morrison:

“But over 100 lives were directly… have already been directly saved by the efforts of the ADF, literally winching people to safety, as have the brave efforts of so many in the SES..”.

PAUL:

It was a reminder, again, Ruby, that what Morrison thinks will work is not working. Events keep running ahead of him, and he doesn't always play convincing catch up.

RUBY:

Yeah, OK, so let's talk then about the federal government's response to the floods. What have they announced and how is that going?

PAUL:

Well, in a word it's a mess. The PM went to Lismore midweek, made a big announcement on extra relief for victims…

Archival Tape – Scott Morrison:

“So the Commonwealth has responded - a billion dollars in what I would call is the expected normal response to a natural disaster. But we must go further. The Commonwealth disaster payments that we've paid around the country now total some 385 million dollars…”

PAUL:

…But he left out thousands of people who are homeless and with nothing in other parts of the state. Then it's emerged that the 4 billion dollar Emergency Relief Fund set up three years ago with the promise to spend $200 million a year from the interest earned on mitigation and relief measures…well, despite earning in that period almost a billion dollars in interest, since then, nothing has been spent. Not a cent.

RUBY:

Right. So the money's just sitting there, Paul?

PAUL:

Well, sort of, Ruby. The government set up this fund after the Black Summer fires, but true to form, it seems they simply didn't believe the extreme events would recur so quickly. They've never seriously heeded the science anyway.

Archival Tape – Murray Watt:

“I think he's going to have to explain to people, why didn't his government make use of that fund at any point over the last three years to put in place the kind of flood mitigation measures that might have made a real difference here”

PAUL:

As Labor's emergency services spokesman Murray Watt points out, there's no doubt that had some of that money been deployed already, it could have made a huge difference, not only to Lismore, where 2000 homes have been destroyed, but elsewhere in the badly devastated parts of the nation.

Archival Tape – Murray Watt:

“He said he didn't have the powers he had to wait on the states, and then he made a big noise about getting himself the power to declare a national emergency. He should do that today. He should declare a formal national emergency and make use of the powers that he gave himself after the bushfires… “

PAUL:

Watt called on Morrison to declare a national emergency and with it to use the powers parliament gave him after the 2019/20 bushfires to expedite the recovery. Well, the prime minister, two weeks after the disaster, finally rose to the challenge announcing such an emergency, on his first foray to Lismore after a week long COVID 19 isolation.

Archival Tape – Reporter:

“With not a warm reception, but a hot one waiting out front…”

Archival Tape – Protesters chanting:

“Where were you!”

Archival Tape – Reporter (7 News):

…Scott Morrison's driven past protesters to a rear entrance of the Lismore Council building…

PAUL:

Well, he was greeted by protesters, some carrying signs “the water is rising, no more compromising” and chanting “we need help. We need help.”

Archival Tape – Protester:

“The army has been like, you know, when you're doing the dishes like the kids that go to the toilet and they come out when the dishes are done. We'll see them when everyone else has done the heavy lifting. We need more help…”

RUBY:

Seeing those protesters, Paul, you can't help but be reminded of the last natural disaster, which is the Black Summer bushfires, obviously, and the images that we saw then of Scott Morrison in the disaster area, forcing hostile people to shake hands with him. So what is he doing to try and get a handle on the situation this time?

PAUL:

Ruby he seems to be attempting to drag the conversation back to his preferred turf, which is national security and the economy. At a business speech on Tuesday. Morrison was defiant in seeking to paint Labor as high taxing. He went through all the old motions. He vowed he would not increase the GST or introduce a carbon tax. Well, it's an old war cry, but the battle has moved on. And you know, really, it is a hollow promise. As we've seen, a disrespected Mother Nature has, in a much more real sense, imposed more than the cost of such a carbon tax on people and the economy. That's the hard reality Morrison needs to face up to and hasn't.

RUBY:

Yeah, and the hard reality of climate catastrophe is something that successive leaders have failed to face up to Paul, but the stakes could not be higher for Scott Morrison right now. He's got an entire country to convince, but it sounds like from what you've been saying that he also needs to convince some within his own party, too, that he has the capacity to be a leader right now.

PAUL:

Well, it's true, Ruby. The party got rid of Malcolm Turnbull, the one leader who took the need for climate change action seriously. The coal champions got their revenge for the dumping of their hero, Tony Abbott. But in turning to Scott Morrison, they ended up with a salesman who fails on promise delivery. And the voters have seen through him. This surely is the explanation for the disastrous opinion polls that are spooking Liberal MPs.

RUBY:

Paul, Thank you so much for your time.

PAUL:

No thank you, Ruby. Bye.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today,

Ukrainian officials have confirmed that at least 17 people have been wounded after a Russian air strike hit a children’s hospital in the southern city of Mariupol.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that children were trapped under the wreckage and called the strike an “atrocity”.

The bombing of Ukrainian cities from Russian forces has prevented the creation of safe corridors for civilians, trapping hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, leaving them without access to essential supplies such as food, medicine and heat.

And, thousands of Queensland and NSW flood victims will be unable to claim insurance due to fine prints in policies according to a new report from The Financial Rights Legal Centre.

The news of increased financial hardship facing flood victims comes after the NSW shires of Tweed, Bryon and Ballina were excluded in the Federal government’s disaster relief package announced earlier this week.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper. It’s produced by Elle Marsh, Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Anu Hasbold and Alex Gow.

Our senior producer is Ruby Schwartz and our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Brian Campeau mixes the show. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See you next week.

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