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ASHLYNNE:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ashlynne McGhee. This is 7am.

Back in 2016 when Donald Trump was elected President, the Australian government was caught off guard. Then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull had to call golfing legend Greg Norman just to get Trump’s number so he could call and congratulate him.

This time around, the government’s taking the prospect of a second Trump presidency seriously and they’re preparing.

They’re strengthening ties with Trump allies and insiders, and positioning Scott Morrison as a sort of special envoy, or Trump whisperer.

Today, The Saturday Paper’s Jason Koutsoukis, takes us inside those preparations, and what the government thinks Trump v2 could mean for Australia.

That’s after the break.

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ASHLYNNE:

Jason, last month Scott Morrison found a pretty surprising candidate to help launch his new book to the US market, didn't he?

JASON:

That's right. None other than Kevin Rudd, the former Labor Prime Minister now ambassador to Washington, and long time foe of Scott Morrison.

Audio Excerpt - Kevin Rudd:

“When I see him say that it's somehow god’s intervention to appear to him through an image of a portrait of an eagle, as if this is a reference to the prophetic writings of the prophet Isiah in the Old Testament, I think that starts to get really wacky, frankly.”

JASON:

And the fact that Kevin Rudd is launching this book is a signal that he's buried the hatchet with Scott Morrison and is happy to work with him. If there's one thing that links Scott Morrison and Kevin Rudd, it is their Christian faith. Kevin Rudd was always very open about his relationship with Christianity. It was always, you know, that was a real feature of his personality and his make up as Prime Minister.

Audio Excerpt - Kevin Rudd:

“Like me or loathe me, what I did prior to becoming Prime Minister was write a long essay in The Monthly magazine called Faith in Politics, which basically lays it out in black and white, as to my interpretation of what a Christian belief means, in terms of political practice which is about, frankly, the theology of social justice.”

Audio Excerpt - Presenter:

“Scott Morrison is the 30th Prime Minister of Australia, and the first pentecostal to hold the office. During his term, the United States and Australia forged deeper bonds, and now he's written a book about his experience on the world stage.”

JASON:

What was also really interesting about it was who was there. Some of the people that were closest to Donald Trump during his time as president, people like Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state, the former Vice President Mike Pence, and Kellyanne Conway, the former director of communications and long time counsellor for Donald Trump.

Audio Excerpt - Scott Morrison:

“Thank you for the terrific response we’ve had to Plans For Your Good this week, we’re already now in our first reprint. If you've got your copy, I hope you’re enjoying it, I hope it’s encouraging you.”

JASON:

So, Scott Morrison's book is titled Plans For Your Good: A Prime Minister's Testimony of God's Faithfulness. And it's a real insight into not just Scott Morrison's time as Prime Minister, but also his faith, which was sometimes a controversial part of Scott Morrison's Prime Ministership.

Audio Excerpt - Scott Morrison:

“This is not a book that an ex-politician, former Prime Minister would normally write. It's not about what I did, it’s about what I believe God has done for me. Over the course of my whole life, not just when I was Prime Minister, as a result of my faith in Jesus Christ. You know, it was tough when I was in that job. We dealt with so many challenges…”

JASON:

I think everyone I spoke to for this piece showed that, you know, this government is taking the prospect of a Trump victory very seriously. And that's not just people who are in the elected positions, this is people right through the bureaucracy. And, yeah, they are focussed every day on what a Trump victory would mean for Australia and they're working through all sorts of game plans for how to deal with a future President Trump. So, Kevin Rudd getting together with Scott Morrison to launch his book, it's not just about launching the book, it's a way of showing to everyone here in Australia and in Washington that Kevin Rudd can talk to the other side of politics. And I think he succeeded in demonstrating that very well, because some of the names that were at that book launch are going to be people that he's going to need to build relationships with if Trump becomes president again.

ASHLYNNE:

Yeah, so tell me a little bit more about them, about Morrison's closeness with the Trump world and some of the characters who exist in it.

JASON:

When Scott Morrison was Prime Minister, he was able to forge a pretty close relationship with Donald Trump and that wasn't just meetings in the White House. We saw Scott Morrison actually get up on a campaign stage at one point during the 2020 election campaign with Donald Trump.

Audio Excerpt - Scott Morrison:

“Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. And he recently won the election in Australia, some of you know. And it was supposed to be close and he blew them away, because he believes a lot of the same things I believe.”

JASON:

He identified himself as closely as possible, not just to Donald Trump as president but Donald Trump as a Republican candidate. And that attracted a lot of criticism from people like Anthony Albanese. You know, it's clear that Morrison's got a relationship with Trump and I think it would be silly for Australia not to take advantage of that. In January, it was announced that Scott Morrison would be, well had been appointed, as Non-Executive Vice Chairman of American Global Strategies. This is one of those Washington political consultancies that provides, you know, boutique advice to people who are prepared to pay for it. In March, Donald Trump gave an interview to Nigel Farage and one of the things he did was prompt Donald Trump with a question about Kevin Rudd. He relayed some criticisms that Kevin Rudd had made of Trump.

Audio Excerpt - Nigel Farage:

“I mean he has said some of the most horrible things, you were a destructive president, a traitor to the West, and he’s now Australia’s ambassador in Washington.”

Audio Excerpt - Donald Trump:

“Yeah, well I don’t know.”

Audio Excerpt - Nigel Farage:

“Would you take a phone call from him?”

Audio Excerpt - Donald Trump:

“He won’t be there long if that’s the case, I don’t know much about him.”

JASON:

And of course Trump responded in his typical way, with an insult.

Audio Excerpt - Donald Trump:

“I heard he was a little bit nasty, I hear he’s not the brightest bulb. But I don’t know much about him, if he’s at all hostile he will not be there long.”

JASON:

When Trump said, of course, it triggered lots of headlines back here in Australia, mostly in the Murdoch papers, suggesting that, you know, that Kevin Rudd would be recalled if Donald Trump won. Penny Wong came out straight away and knocked that on the head. She, you know, said that Kevin Rudd was doing a very good job and had proved to be a very effective ambassador. And, yeah, I think there's no way that they would move to get rid of Kevin Rudd.

ASHLYNNE:

So, the moves we're talking about are all in the diplomatic space, but is Anthony Albanese also thinking about his own personal relationship with Donald Trump?

JASON:

I think, as Malcolm Turnbull said in a recent essay also in Foreign Affairs, the only relationship that really counts when it comes to Donald Trump is the leader. And so, in this case, it's going to be the relationship between Trump and Anthony Albanese.

I think he has to really mentally prepare himself for that first meeting that he has with Trump, because we know that Trump is going to try to walk all over him. He's going to try to bully him. And I think Malcolm Turnbull's advice is, in this case, you know, really worth taking. You've got to stand up to Trump, that's the only way you can, that you can really deal with him and get something meaningful out of it.

ASHLYNNE:

After the break, what another bout of Donald Trump could mean for Australia.

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ASHLYNNE:

Jason, it seems there's lots of positioning and strategising going on to prepare for another Trump presidency. Which areas of the relationship is the government really focused on?

JASON:

Yeah, I think right across the executive wing here in Parliament House and across the public service here in Canberra and in Washington, the government is very focussed on what would it mean for Australia if Donald Trump wins the White House. I think that the two areas that they're probably most concerned about are trade, so what would happen to Australia's trading relationship with China and some of the other key countries here in Asia, would Donald Trump want to start a trade war with China and what would happen to Australia if he did so. And then the other key area is national security and the big piece of that that is relevant for Australia is AUKUS, so what would happen to AUKUS. And I think, in both cases, I don't think Australia's going to be at too much of a disadvantage if Trump wins. The Republicans see Australia as a nation that's paying its own way when it comes to defence. AUKUS is, in the end, involves Australia paying money into the US military industrial complex. Republicans seem to like that. They are a bit worried that they won't have enough submarines of their own, but I'm sure that's something that will be worked out over the next 8 to 10 years. One of the things Donald Trump has said he wants to do, you know, perhaps as soon as he takes office is try to end the war in Ukraine. If that means that it's on terms that are very favourable to Vladimir Putin, what kind of a signal does that send to dictators or other strongman governments around the world? And what kind of a message does it send to China? And how would that affect China's relationship with Taiwan? So, I think what Donald Trump does with regard to Ukraine won’t affect us immediately, but it will have long term consequences for our region.

ASHLYNNE:

Everyone is taking the prospect of a second Trump presidency very seriously, aren't they?

JASON:

Yeah, and I think that's with good reason given what a mercurial, unpredictable president Donald Trump was in his first term. He's acquired a lot of anger in the four years he's been out of office and, you would assume from what Donald Trump says, that he's going to want to settle a few scores. When you look at the polls, the averages of all the polls in the US right now, Donald Trump is ahead by about 0.5 of 1%. And I think it's very difficult to predict what will happen, but it's definitely not a certainty that Donald Trump will win. And I think, you know, Nate Silver from that website FiveThirtyEight, he's got this very complex election prediction forecast model, and he's saying that right now it's 50/50.

Audio Excerpt - Donald Trump:

“And always remember, we are one movement, one people, one family, and one glorious nation under God. And together we will make America powerful again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America strong again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again. We will make America free again. And we will make America great again. Thank you, god bless you all, thank you, thank you Pennsylvania. Thank you all.”

ASHLYNNE:

And finally, Jason, how does Donald Trump see Australia?

JASON:

I think he probably doesn't think about Australia that much. He probably doesn't know a lot about Australia but, one thing that, you know, Donald Trump really values is loyalty. And there's been no ally of the US that has been more loyal than Australia.

Not only have we followed the US into every war for the last hundred years but we've also, over the last ten years, started contributing a lot more of our taxpayer dollars to defence. And, I think the US sees that Australia is paying its own way, and spending more than 2% of GDP on defence, you know, which was seen as this key benchmark that Donald Trump set for US allies during his first term.

So I think he probably, when he thinks about Australia, he probably thinks Australia is okay.

ASHLYNNE:

Thanks so much for your time today, Jason.

JASON:

Thanks, Ashlynne. It's always a pleasure talking with you.

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ASHLYNNE:

Also in the news today...

The salary of the Governor-General will be increased by more than $200,000 dollars, under a bill introduced by the Albanese Government.

The increase comes as Sam Mostyn prepares to take on the role on July 1 this year, and the government argues it’s necessary because, unlike former governors-generals, she won’t be receiving other entitlements like those given to former judges or military officers.

And,

A fifth close ally of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been embroiled in a growing betting scandal engulfing his re-election campaign.

The five party officials and MPs are now all under investigation by the UK’s gambling commission, which is investigating suspicious bets placed on the election date before it was publicly announced, with the investigations even leading to the arrest of one of Sunak’s security detail.

That’s all from us at 7am for today. My name’s Ashlynne McGhee, thanks for your company. See you again tomorrow.

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