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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

The Liberal Party has come to a position on the Voice to Parliament.

Archival tape – Peter Dutton:

“The Liberal Party's proposition here today in opposing the Prime Minister's Canberra voice, we're actually uniting the country and bringing people together on something that practically is going to work, but not disrupt our way of government.”

RUBY:

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton says he will campaign for the ‘No’ case ahead of this year’s referendum to enshrine an Indigenous voice to Parliament in the constitution.

Archival tape – Journalist:

“Will you be actively campaigning — and to Ms Ley as well — actively campaigning “no”, against the voice in this referendum?”

Archival tape – Peter Dutton:

“Yes, I will be. I don't believe this is in our country's best interests.”

RUBY:

The decision comes in the wake of two election defeats for the Liberal party in two weeks, first in NSW, and then in the Aston by-election.

So is opposing the Voice out of step with the electorate? And what lessons is Peter Dutton taking from his election losses? Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno, on the future of the Liberal party.

It’s Thursday, April 6.

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RUBY:

So Paul, a few days ago, the Liberal Party lost the seat of Aston, which is a historic once in 100 year by-election loss. So to begin with, why did it happen?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, in two words, Peter Dutton.

Archival tape – Reporter:

“The Liberal Party is once again in damage control this morning after losing last night's by-election in the federal seat of Aston in Victoria…”

Archival tape – Reporter:

“The Liberal Party is licking its wounds from yet another electoral humiliation, this time becoming the first opposition party to lose a seat in a federal by-election in 100 years…”

Archival tape – Reporter:

“And neither party predicted such a strong swing to Labor.”

PAUL:

We've had a string of opinion polls this week which shows that Peter Dutton is losing support and approval in the electorate.

And we saw the acid test of this in Aston, where the Liberals — in a seat that had been rock solid for three decades — saw a 6.5% swing on top of a similar swing just ten months ago.

So a seat that was the bluest of blue ribbon Liberal seats within the space of ten months has seen a swing in the vicinity of 12% against it.

RUBY:

Let's talk a bit about how Peter Dutton has framed this defeat. What has he said, what's his interpretation of what actually went wrong for him and his party?

PAUL:

Ruby, It was very interesting to hear Peter Dutton's take on what went wrong in Aston on Insiders.

Archival tape – David Speers:

“You said in your own words this was a test of your leadership. So have you failed that test?”

Archival tape – Peter Dutton:

“Well, we didn't win the seat, so by definition we have a lot of work to do. I accept responsibility and I'm the leader of the party. I was there last night…”

PAUL:

He actually complained that the Liberal Party, and I'm quoting here, “has allowed itself to be defined by our opponents.”

Archival tape – Peter Dutton:

“And I think it's time for us to take that back, to stand up for what we believe in, whether it's trendy or not. And some of that, I believe, is what the Australian public demand, particularly in our seats in outer metro areas and regional areas. And that's what we're going to do.”

PAUL:

Well, Aston is the most outer metro of any outer metro seat. And we saw in the very week before the by-election in Melbourne, the State Liberal Party was at war with itself over transgender issues.

Archival tape – Peter Dutton:

“I think also the debate runs to ways that there are very strong views within many parts of Australian society, maybe not right here in the inner city areas of our country, but in the outer metropolitan areas. This is an issue in terms of women's rights and the gender issue, that has parents and others very worked up.”

Archival tape – David Speers:

“So we shouldn’t have a problem with one of your MPs going to an anti-trans rally?”

PAUL:

They were obsessing about what the electorate clearly sees as a fringe issue, and it also shows that Peter Dutton's idea of what metropolitan — or outer metropolitan — Australia is really concerned about is very different to what the voters in this area, particularly on Saturday, but going back to last May, actually are concerned about.

RUBY:

And Paul, in the days since that by-election loss, the party has really focused in on the Voice to Parliament. And yesterday they formally decided not to support the current model. We saw signs of that decision coming early in the week didn’t we Paul, at the press club. Tell me what was said.

PAUL:

Well, it's very interesting, Ruby. On Monday at the National Press Club, Julian Leeser, who's the Shadow Attorney-General and the Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians. He expressed grave doubts about a clause that will be put to the people in the referendum, which includes the Voice being able to make representations to the executive government as well as the Parliament.

Archival tape – Julian Leeser:

“I believe the clause creates doubt and uncertainty. Why allow room for a debate about whether a particular government entity is or is not part of the executive government?”

PAUL:

Now the point about this is that it seems that Leeser was sent out to further confuse and sow doubt about the referendum. He was not offering support for the Voice.

Archival tape – Julian Leeser:

“Why leave it to the High Court to decide what the Constitution means by “make representations”? If the Parliament has power to establish the Voice and define its powers, why does the power to make representations need to be in the Constitution? Why not simply put that in legislation too?”

PAUL:

Which is, in his case, a complete turnaround from his record when the Liberals were in government. He, in fact, played a key role in formulating that the referendum should be enabling Aboriginal Australians to make representations to the Parliament and the executive government.

RUBY:

Right. So you have Julian Leeser almost setting the stage there, and then on Wednesday, the Liberal Party, they meet to try and formally come to a position on the Voice. So tell me about what happened.

PAUL:

The morning began with the shadow cabinet ministers, Liberals only, meeting and hammering out a position and that position was then taken — after a while, it took him about an hour and a half for them to reach some agreement on it — to the party room. That is the backbenchers and junior shadow ministers from the Senate and the House of Representatives. Now that meeting went over an hour.

The overwhelming consensus was to back what the leader was putting, which namely was that they would oppose a constitutional Voice to the Parliament.

Now I'm told that five members got up and they urged the party to take particular notice of what's going on in the broader electorate. The irony is here, that on the very morning that Newspoll published a nationwide poll, taken over three months, that showed not only that 54% of all Australians support the yes referendum, the constitutional recognition of the voice, but a majority of the states do. So if the referendum was held today, it would get up. And even in the state where they didn't get a majority, that is Queensland, 49% said they'd support “yes” to 43%, who said they'd support “no”. So even there, you'd have to say Queensland is not a definite no.

So Peter Dutton says he's listening to voters, says he's heard the message of Ashton and then the general election before it, but it's not clear what exactly he's hearing.

RUBY:

We’ll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

So Paul, we've been talking about the Liberal Party, their recent electoral failures, and the decision that they have just made around opposing the Voice to Parliament as it stands. All of this really does make you wonder - just who is it that the party sees as their audience, as their demographic right now, and are they missing the mark on that? So, what do we know about the electorate and whether perhaps it is just shifting away from the conservative side of politics that Dutton is presenting?

PAUL:

We know a fair bit about it. The Australian election studied by Ian McAllister in ANU, shows that the Liberal Party has some really big demographic problems. People aged in their thirties and forties, they're less satisfied with the economic performance and the role of the Coalition government. They tend to be more progressive, and as they age they're not becoming more conservative. And a really big issue, which I think has to resonate across the country and across the younger demographic, you know, young families. They're finding it far more difficult to get into the housing market. Their wages aren't going up. We do know that real wages are falling behind all the time. The Liberals were seen to be defying economic gravity before they lost the election.

And in the ten months since, they haven't done much to help the new government that people said, “Oh, well, let's give the other mob a go.” Well, the Dutton opposition has believed that the best way to go is to keep saying “no”.

But let me say this as well. Peter Dutton should begin investing in a new approach for the Liberals so that when it does come to the next election he can say, look, we supported the safeguard mechanism because we're serious about addressing climate change. Look, we supported doing something more for manufacturing in Australia because we want to look to new jobs in a new economy, that sort of narrative. And I do know that some on his back bench shake their heads, that that's not the way that he's going.

RUBY:

Paul, before the election results in Aston came in, Dutton spoke about this really being a referendum on leadership, which is surely something he regrets saying now. But practically speaking, I mean, there are no real contenders for the Liberal leadership, are there? So as well as problems with demographics and policy, are the Liberal Party facing a talent crisis?

PAUL:

Well, look, that certainly does seem to be the case, doesn't it? We do know, for example, if we go back to the Rudd/Gillard years in the Labor Party, Gillard stood aside for Rudd initially, but everybody knew that she had a burning ambition to get the top job. We knew that when Tony Abbott became Prime Minister, we knew that in his midst was Malcolm Turnbull, who the polls showed was more popular in fact than Abbott. And we certainly know that Malcolm Turnbull wanted his job.

But at this point of time there is no one with such burning ambition on show in the Liberal ranks, and certainly no one with the sort of profile, for example, that Turnbull had, or going back, that Gillard had. So that is a leadership vacuum for them, if you like.

We should keep in mind there is another interesting facet to Aston which throws some light on just how shrewd the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, is. The Liberals were shocked when the Government pulled on the by-election so quickly, they thought it would be a couple more months away.

Peter Dutton told his party room last week that even though people are worried about the cost of living, the honeymoon is still on and they're not blaming the Labor Government. So I think we should just keep that in mind as well, that the timing of this by-election was designed to maximise Labor's chances rather than to minimise them.

However, I want to tell you something. Just before we came on, I was speaking to a Labor staffer who reminded me that Bob Hawke, who won a very big election win back in 83, and even Rudd in 07, they both had by-elections within six months of winning government from opposition, and they lost those by elections in similar seats to Aston, which shows you that there is certainly a very different dynamic at play here, and which underscores the negative that Peter Dutton is for the Liberal Party.

RUBY:

And so, Paul, to come back to the Voice and Peter Dutton’s decision there, what do you think that it's going to mean for the government's plans for a referendum going ahead, and for its potential success or failure?

PAUL:

Well, look, it makes it more difficult if you haven't got, you know, overwhelming bipartisan support. There's no doubt about that.

But on the other hand, you'd have to wonder what sort of credibility Peter Dutton has got with the electorate. Especially as all the polling shows, that on this issue, it's right across party lines that there is support for the Voice.

RUBY:

Paul, thank you so much for your time.

PAUL:

Thank you Ruby, Bye.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today…

Former President Donald Trump has pleaded not guilty to 34 charges related to hush money payments made during the 2016 election.

It’s the first time in American history a former president has been charged with a crime.

AND

Former police officer Zachary Rolfe has indicated he intends to appeal his recent dismissal from the Northern Territory Police Force.

Rolfe had previously been acquitted of the murder of Yuendumu man Kumanjayi Walker.

Northern Territory Police say the dismissal is in response to an open letter that Rolfe posted to Facebook about Walker’s shooting.

A coronial inquest into Walker’s death is underway.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Zoltan Fecso, Cheyne Anderson, and James Milsom.

Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow. Our editor is Scott Mitchell.

Sarah McVeigh is our Head of Audio, and Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing this week by Laura Hancock and Andy Elston.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am, see you next week.

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