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From Schwartz Media, I’m Ange McCormack. This is 7am.

A secretive journey aboard a luxurious train has transported North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un into Russia, for a meeting with Vladimir Putin.

It’s a trip with a high-stakes agenda, as North Korea has something that Russia wants: weapons and ammunition to help in its fight against Ukraine.

So, what could this deal lead to in Ukraine, and could it threaten security in Australia’s region?

Today, world editor for The Saturday Paper, Jonathan Pearlman, on Putin’s desperate wartime quest, and the danger of what North Korea might receive in return.

It’s Thursday, September 14.

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ANGE:

So, Jonathan, Kim Jong-Un, the leader of North Korea, has travelled to Russia by train to meet with Vladimir Putin, and it's the first time he's left his country in four years. Why has he decided to leave North Korea and why is it such a big deal for him to do that?

JONATHAN:

So, yes, it's very rare for Kim Jong-Un to leave North Korea. He's travelled abroad seven times in the 12 years since he's been leader. And when he does, you tend to know about it. For this trip to meet Putin. He's travelled on a heavily armoured train. And the train has captured a lot of global attention this week as it’s slowly made its way into Russia.

Audio excerpt -- Reporter:

“Kim's magical mystery train tour through Russia began at the border town of Hassan, where he was…”

Audio excerpt -- Reporter:

“Russian reports suggested Kim is headed for the Vostochny spaceport, where the meeting with Putin could take place.”

Audio excerpt -- Reporter:

“His stately green carriages are bullet-proof and he has dozens of security personnel on board.”

JONATHAN:

And while it's being used, there are actually three trains operating. One tests the rails and checks ahead of previous trains for bombs. The second one has the leader and his entourage. And then there's a train for everyone else. So he's obviously deeply concerned about security, but he also, according to reports and obviously everything about Kim Jong-Un is kind of subject to speculation. And, you know, he lives an incredibly kind of secretive life in a hermetic state. But reports at least that the train is very lavish.

Audio excerpt -- Reporter:

“Passengers can be serenaded by beautiful female conductors while seated in their unique pink leather sofas. They can request fresh lobster, French wines and other world delicacies…”

JONATHAN:

And as to why he's willing to undertake this trip outside of North Korea, it's because he received an invitation from Vladimir Putin.

And Putin is, it seems, desperate at this point in the invasion of Ukraine and needs his help.

Audio excerpt -- Reporter:

“Not only has he failed to achieve his goals on the battlefield, but you see him travelling across his own country hat in hand to beg Kim Jong-Un for military assistance.”

JONATHAN:

And Kim Jong-Un has something that Putin wants, and that's weapons and ammunition.

ANGE:

Yeah right. And why is Putin turning to North Korea to help with ammunition?

JONATHAN:

Russia's weapon suppliers have been affected by international sanctions and export controls. And so Putin is having to look elsewhere. And the problem is for Russia that it doesn't have a lot of options because of the severe international sanctions. Any country that provides it with arms or equipment that could be used to make arms will itself be subject to sanctions. So that leaves Russia looking at countries like Iran and North Korea that are already so subject to sanctions that they're willing to trade with Russia because, you know, any potential further sanctions are going to have limited effect. So we've seen Russia receive drones from Iran and now it's looking to North Korea. But North Korea has some other advantages for Russia. Its weapons are based on Soviet systems, and so they're compatible with weapons used by the Russian military. And then, you know, in terms of what North Korea might receive in return, it's reported that North Korea wants to ask Russia for advanced technology, for its military, for satellites and nuclear powered submarines. But North Korea is struggling after COVID. It wants food. It wants energy. It wants its workers to be able to be able to work in Russia. So there's a lot that Kim Jong-Un could get out of this meeting. But in addition, there's just, you know, Kim Jong-Un likes to be in the global spotlight. We've seen that before. You know, he probably likes the optics of appearing with Russia and seeming to be this sort of anti-U.S., anti-Western alliance.

Audio excerpt -- CNN:

“We have breaking news from Eastern Russia. The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un and Russian president, Vladimir Putin are now meeting face-to-face for the first time in four years. These images…”

JONATHAN:

If they want the international spotlight, they’re clearly getting it.

Audio excerpt -- CNN:

"As you can see this meeting is now taking place ... Kim looking very sharp there in his suit, the two men seeming to be very happy. The Russian president said to Kim Jong-Un - ‘Hi, glad to see you, how was your trip?’"

ANGE:

And what does it tell us about how Russia's invasion of Ukraine is going if Putin needs to sort of resort to turning to somewhere like North Korea for help?

JONATHAN:

Yes, so I think it just shows the kind of war that's going on in Ukraine at the moment. This kind of heavy, intensive land fighting. And Russia is just using an enormous amount of ammunition. It's reportedly using about 20,000 shells a day. And that comes to about more than 7 million a year. And it's ramping up production this year to two and a half million shells. That leaves it well short. And that's just artillery shells. It's also after mines, bullets, guns. So it's using up a lot of resources. Now, Ukraine is being supplied by Europe, the US, even Australia. But for Russia, it has a serious problem because it doesn't have that flow of international military support. It's been largely self-reliant and looking for countries like North Korea.

So if North Korea does start to arm Russia, it could have consequences for the conflict in Ukraine. But as this war in Europe has shown before, it's not the conflict that's just confined to two countries. And what's happening in Ukraine is having global ramifications. And this deal could again mark the start of something bigger.

ANGE:

Coming up after the break - how the rest of the world will react to Putin and Kim’s historic meeting.

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ANGE:

Jonathan, the rest of the world is watching this meeting between Russia and North Korea's leaders very closely. If an agreement is made, how would the rest of the world react, do you think?

JONATHAN:

Yes. So the US is clearly watching this meeting closely.

Audio excerpt -- Jake Sullivan:

“So I can't speculate on North Korea's motives.”

JONATHAN:

The White House's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has said that North Korea would pay a price if it provided Russia with weapons.

Audio excerpt -- Jake Sullivan:

“Providing weapons to Russia for use on the battlefield to attack grain silos and the heating infrastructure of major cities as we head into winter to try to conquer territory that belongs to another sovereign nation is not going to reflect well on North Korea. And they will pay a price for this in the international community. We have also imposed sanctions….”

JONATHAN:

There's been talk of further sanctions on North Korea.

But again, that sort of action is probably going to only have limited consequence given the kinds of sanctions that North Korea is already under. You know, we saw that this meeting was actually announced by the US. You know, North Korea and Russia initially denied it and wouldn't confirm it. And I think the US had in mind wanting to signal to countries like China that it has deep concerns about further efforts to thwart the sanctions against Russia to show support for Russia. You know, and it’s probably also concerned about the prospect of a sort of China, North Korea, Russia front developing especially since the US, Japan and South Korea has just kind of cemented its own ties. So I think the US is deeply concerned about this meeting and you know, and its potential ramifications, you know, particularly for Asia and the Korean Peninsula.

ANGE:

And you mentioned before that North Korea obviously wants something out of this deal with Russia, potentially even something that could benefit their military program. How significant could it be for regional security if Kim is able to get that out of Putin?

JONATHAN:

You know, the Korean Peninsula is one of the world's flashpoints. The dispute there is old and, you know, involves a nuclear armed country in North Korea and South Korea and Japan, which are in North Korea's firing line, have expressed concern about this meeting this week. South Korea contacted Russia to discuss it. So South Korea in particular would be very concerned about anything that leads to North Korea getting some sort of military support from Russia, you know, something that could support its missiles program or its nuclear submarines. That would be very worrying for South Korea. It's not clear that Russia would be willing to provide that sort of support to North Korea though. Russia will probably have reservations about transferring technology to North Korea that could improve North Korea's military edge and have potential repercussions even for Russia in the future. Even if it falls short of that, and North Korea is just getting more public recognition, more international recognition and, you know, more economic help that can help prop up the Kim dynasty. That also would be worrying for South Korea and North Korea's neighbours, which would like to eventually see this sort of hermetic state there open up.

ANGE:

And meanwhile, Jonathan, how is Ukraine responding to this potential deal? Would they feel threatened by this move or could this lead them to call on their allies for more armed support?

JONATHAN:

Yeah so, we saw when Iran provided drones to Russia, Ukraine imposed sanctions on Iran. But those sanctions are going to really have limited effect. But what Ukraine did was start to call for more support from its backers. I don't think North Korean arms that go to Russia could tilt the balance of the war or suddenly improve Russia's military edge. But what they could do is prolong the war. And what we've seen so far is that the longer this war goes on, it might have been expected that support for Ukraine internationally might dwindle. But I think so far we're saying the opposite effect, that the longer this war goes on, the greater the commitment of the international community has been for Ukraine, particularly militarily.

ANGE:

And, Jonathan, if we went back to the beginning of this war in Ukraine, I guess it would have been hard to imagine the war could have led to North Korea being warmly received at international conferences or being involved in a move that will gain them more power. What does this story tell us about the way this war is shaping world events, not just in Ukraine, but all over the world, including in our own region?

JONATHAN:

Yeah, so the deal clearly has a lot more to it than just potential arms for fuel and energy deal between Russia and North Korea. In the immediate term, we could see a strengthening of the relationship between Russia and North Korea. But I think what we've seen from the war in Ukraine so far is that it's just having enormous unintended consequences really around the world. You know, we've seen NATO strengthened in a way that we could never have expected. You know, it's even starting to look towards Asia now. We've seen countries like Germany transform its military and sort of redefine its pacifist post-war self-image. We've seen migrants spread across Europe out of Ukraine. Grain prices rise. It affects food security in Africa, you know, inflationary pressures that are being felt everywhere, obviously, including in Australia.

But I think what we've seen is that we've got this major world power, a nuclear power in Russia, locked in a war against, you know, a large country that is receiving huge backing from the West and that is having repercussions everywhere.

Again, I think this North Korea's involvement in the war is the latest twist, really. But as this war keeps going, we just see more and more of these global consequences and twists that we couldn't have expected before this war began.

ANGE:

Jonathan, thanks so much for speaking with me.

JONATHAN:

Thanks Ange.

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ANGE:

Also in the news today,

The High Court of Australia found Qantas acted illegally when it sacked 1,700 ground workers during the pandemic.

The result has led to the Transport Workers Union calling for the resignation of the entire Qantas board, including its Chairman, Richard Goyder.

And,

The Australian newspaper says it stands by its reporting of comments made by Professor Marcia Langton about the nature of the ‘No’ side of the referendum campaign.

The paper misrepresented comments Langton made to a referendum event in WA, and she is considering legal action over the reports - which accused her of calling No voters ‘racist and stupid’ at the event.

I’m Ange McCormack, this is 7am. We’ll be back again tomorrow.

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