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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

It was just a couple of weeks ago that the Prime Minister, along with state and territory leaders, signed off on a plan to end lockdowns and border closures when vaccine rates reached 80 percent of the adult population.

But it didn’t take long for the so-called national plan to fall apart, with states and the federal government spending the last week bickering over Australia’s roadmap out of this crisis.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongioro, on the battle over when to open the country up and the Prime MInister’s strange decision to invoke an animated movie to help argue his case.

It’s Friday, August 27.

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RUBY:

Paul, federal politics got a little weird this week or a little weirder than usual. Can you tell me about the moment that things went off the rails?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, things certainly did get very strange with the prime minister using a very peculiar analogy on Channel Nine's The Today Show. When discussing the nation's path out of Lockdown's and Covid-19 restrictions.

Archival Tape -- Karl Stefanovic:

“Prime Minister Scott Morrison joins us now in Canberra…”

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“G’day Karl…”

PAUL:

He was discussing the fact that some state premiers, particularly WA’s Mark McGowan, were less than enthusiastic about the national cabinet plan to re-open the country when vaccine rates hit 70 or 80 percent.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“And that means that we can go into a new Covid normal and we can get out of the cave and that means we can do it safely, now that was a deal that was made with Australians not with me.”

PAUL:

He said that the current political debate in Australia was akin to the film The Croods.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“Now it's like that movie The Croods: people wanted to stay in the cave. Some wanted to stay in the cave. And that young girl, she wanted to go out and live again and deal with the challenges of living in a different world.”

PAUL:

Well, clearly had in mind some timid state premiers, among others.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“Well Covid is a new, different world and we need to get out there and live in it. We can't stay in the cave and we can get out of it safely. That's what the plan does.”

RUBY:

OK, so, Paul, I'm going to have to admit at this point that I am not across The Croods. What is it about? And does this analogy make any sense?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, The Croods is a 2013 animated movie based on a story by the English comic actor John Cleese.

Archival Tape -- The Croods:

“Tonight, we'll hear the story of Crispi Bear... A long time ago, this little bear was alive because she listened to her father, so she was happy."

PAUL:

And it's about an eccentric cave family from the Pliocene era who are fearful of the outside...

Archival Tape -- The Croods:

“But Crispi had one terrible problem she was filled with curiosity.”

PAUL:

...and it stars Nicolas Cage, Emma Stone and Ryan Reynolds.

Archival Tape -- The Croods:

“‘And one day she saw something new and died.’

Archival Tape -- The Croods:

“Just like that?”

Archival Tape -- The Croods:

“Yes”

Archival Tape -- The Croods:

“Same ending as every day.”

PAUL:

I have to tell you, I did quite well in Australia, raking in nearly 24 million dollars at the box office. So even if you like me, haven't seen it, it is perhaps something that did resonate with plenty of Australian families.

Archival Tape -- The Croods:

“I get it dad. I will never do anything new or different.”

Archival Tape -- The Croods:

“Good man, Thunk.”

RUBY:

Sure. OK. And so did Scott Morrison say anything else about why he chose to talk about this particular movie this week?

PAUL:

Well, the host of The Today Show, Karl Stefanovic, was also a bit perplexed.

Archival Tape -- Karl Stefanovic:

“You just, you meandered to an area I never in my life thought you would meander to. So just to be clear…”

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“I like the movie…”

Archival Tape -- Karl Stefanovic:

“I understand…”

PAUL:

But The Croods saga, Ruby, doesn't end there. Later, the same morning, Morrison brought it up again and the government party room. He said his light bulb moment came when he was watching the movie with his two young daughters. And according to the party briefing, he described the hero of the film as a young girl who's sick of being cooped up.

Archival Tape -- The Croods:

“My family has always survived by living by my dad's one rule - never leave the cave.”

PAUL:

And who eventually convinces her overprotective father that life outside isn't so scary after all. Now, Ruby, spoiler alert for any listeners who haven't seen the film and maybe will now screen it. The Croods do eventually leave their cave and make their life in a tropical mountainside. That's clearly the way Morrison is envisaging things, but judging by the reaction to his latest comments, they might end up as harmoniously for him.

RUBY:

I can imagine. So what has the response been like to all of this?

PAUL:

Well, WA’s Mark McGowan wasn't all that happy. He took to Facebook to fire. Back at the Prime Minister: this morning the Prime Minister made a comment implying Western Australians were like cave people from a recent kid's movie. McGowan wrote: It's an odd thing to say, he went on, I think everyone would rather just see the Commonwealth look beyond New South Wales and actually appreciate what life is like here in WA.

RUBY:

OK, so what is really going on here, Paul? Why is the Prime Minister accusing state premiers of hiding in caves?

PAUL:

Ruby, that's a good question. And the answer, as usual, is politics. There's a looming federal election. The Prime Minister is keen to draw the battle lines on terms he thinks favourable for him and his party. While he didn't say the word election on The Today show, he was more explicit in his party room and pivoting back to The Croods, he reminded his MPs and senators that a sequel to the 2013 film was made. And for Morrison, this was a good metaphor, as any, for the Coalition winning the upcoming election. And he urged his troops to keep showing the same teamwork and loyalty to him as they had since he was given the top job three years ago this week. He said this was the key to their continuing success.

RUBY:

We'll be back after this.

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RUBY:

Paul, earlier in the year, there was talk of a federal election sooner rather than later, but as it's become more apparent that our vaccine rollout has not gone to plan and so much of the country has gone back into lockdowns, that seems to have shifted. So what is the latest thinking about when we might head to the polls?

PAUL:

Ruby, people I speak to on Capitol Hill and indeed further afield around the states think that an election before the end of the year is on the cards and the reasoning goes like this. Firstly, it's highly possible that by then the country has hit 70 or even 80 percent of the eligible population being fully vaccinated. The government is certainly increasingly confident of that being the case.

So by then, the vaccine rollout will look less like the current shemozzle, which is a benchmark, if you like, that Morrison could claim that he's finally achieved success. But the second factor here is case numbers and the reality of the pandemic. It's now increasingly clear, given the crisis in New South Wales and the wildly infectious nature of the Delta variant, that even with a majority of the country vaccinated, we'll still see thousands of infections and deaths. The government's expert advisers at the Doherty Institute have spelled that out.

RUBY:

Right, so essentially the Prime Minister is hoping to find the election sweet spot. So after the vaccination targets are hit, but before restrictions are eased and we start to see case numbers, and possibly deaths, go up.

PAUL:

Exactly. Morrison would be taking a huge gamble on the situation improving by March or April next year. It could just as likely be worse. And you hardly need focus groups to tell you that a substantial part of the nation is experiencing extreme fatigue from the lockdowns that have left businesses reeling and families at the end of their tether, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria. But still, the Liberals have commissioned focus groups, and that's what those groups are showing, which Morrison believes gives him a route out of his political malaise. I can hear the slogan now, who do you trust to give you your freedom back?

RUBY:

So that's what this reference to The Croods at the start of the week was all about, Paul. Trying to convince Australians that Scott Morrison wants to lead them out of darkness, into the light, into this kind of tropical paradise and a world where lockdowns are a thing of the past.

PAUL:

That's it. And it's a message being rammed home by his treasurer, Josh Frydenberg...

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

And the treasurer Josh Frydenberg joins me now live from Canberra…

PAUL:

...who said in multiple interviews that if Australia couldn't get out at 70 or 80 percent vaccinated, when could it?

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“When we reach those targets of 70 and 80%...”

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“70 and 80% of those vaccination targets are now in sight…”

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“But with 70 and 80% vaccination rates we can ease restrictions and ultimately see an opening up of the country where we can travel again more freely across borders…”

PAUL:

But the federal government is facing stiff resistance from some states, notably WA as we saw. And Queensland. Those two states have some of the strictest border controls in the country, with Queensland just this week completely shutting off entries from anyone outside the state, including Queenslanders. And this is what Morrison is hoping can benefit him for his pitch about letting everyone out of the cave to be successful. Of course, he must establish he's the only political leader on offer, promising it. So Morrison's political calculus now rests on whether or not he can successfully convince the Australian public that the state premiers are the character of Grug, the father played by Nicholas Cage, and he's Eep Crood, the daughter, played by the marvellous Emma Stone. And by the way, Ruby, The Crood sequel was called A New Age, the voters will have to decide if returning the Morrison coalition government would, in fact, herald a new age or be more of the same.

RUBY:

Paul, thank you so much for talking to me today and thanks for the crash course in The Croods.

PAUL:

Thank you, Ruby. See you on the tropical mountainside. Bye.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today...

New freedoms for NSW residents who are fully vaccinated have been announced by the Premier Gladys Berejiklian. Fully vaccinated adults, outside of Local Government Areas of Concern, will be able to have outdoor gatherings of up to five people from September 13. The proposed easing of restrictions comes after the state recorded 1029 new Covid-19 cases and 3 deaths on Thursday. NSW's regional lockdown has been extended until September 10 as the virus continues to spread, particularly in the west of the state.

And in Queensland, the state government has announced construction of a new Covid-19 quarantine facility. The facility is being constructed near Toowoomba, west of Brisbane, and plans to have 500 beds available by the end of the year, reaching a total capacity of 1000 beds by March next year.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper. It’s produced by Elle Marsh, Michelle Macklem, Kara Jensen-Mackinnon and Anu Hasbold. Our senior producer is Ruby Schwartz and our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Brian Campeau mixes the show. Our editor is Osman Faruqi. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief. Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m your host and EP, Ruby Jones - this is 7am - see you on Monday.