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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

Stuart Robert may have resigned from parliament, but this parliament might not be done with him yet.

New allegations — which he strongly denies — paint a picture of a lobbying firm setting up arrangements to profit Stuart Robert, if he helped them win government work.

And we’ll soon see how voters react, with a by-election in Roberts’ seat looming.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno, on the latest Stuart Robert revelations, and why opinion polls are putting chills through Canberra.

It’s Friday, June 30.

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RUBY:

So, Paul, this week former Coalition minister Stuart Robert was back in the spotlight, with some of the strongest allegations yet, that he tried to benefit from his relationship with a lobbying firm. So tell me about what we've learnt.

Archival tape – Bill Shorten:

“We're here today because of a signed statement provided to the Joint Committee of Public Accounts and Audit, featuring a series of very serious allegations involving the outgoing member for Fadden, Stuart Robert.”

PAUL:

Well, we've learnt a fair bit, Ruby. In what was a bombshell news conference on Wednesday morning, NDIS Minister and Government Services Minister, Bill Shorten, revealed evidence that had been given to the quite powerful Joint Committee of Public Accounts and Audit.

Archival tape – Bill Shorten:

“Beginning in November of last year. There have been several detailed reports in the Sydney Morning Herald and Age newspapers detailing the relationship between former ministers… Liberal minister Stuart Robert, and the Canberra consulting firm Synergy 360.

PAUL:

Shorten revealed in a sworn statement from an associate, someone who was, in fact, was married to a partner of the lobbying firm Synergy 360. This guy's name is Anthony Daley. Well, under parliamentary privilege, he alleged that Stuart Robert, as minister, had organised a way to get kickbacks from this firm, that he would receive payments if he was able to help the firm secure multi-million dollar government contracts.

Archival tape – Bill Shorten:

“I have immediately asked for advice from my agency as to what are the most appropriate avenues to satisfactorily investigate this matter, and I await their advice.”

PAUL:

Daley, in their statement under Parliamentary Privilege, detailed a conversation he'd had with former co-owner of the firm David Milo, who told him the former cabinet minister directed Centrelink and National Disability Insurance Agency leases worth a lot of money towards properties owned by John Margerison’s companies.

Archival tape – Bill Shorten:

“I'm disturbed by the allegation. I don't know if it's true, but I have immediately, today, since the uploading of this, asked for further information concerning leases that it might be referred to in that statement.”

PAUL:

Now Margerison is a long time associate of Stuart Robert, and without irony, I can tell you he was a key political fundraiser for Robert in his Fadden seat on the Gold Coast. Shorten wouldn't be drawn on whether this issue should be referred to the National Anti-Corruption Commission, which begins work on July the 1st, so the next week.

Archival tape – Bill Shorten:

“Ultimately, it is up to the commissioner what they investigate. It is an independent body, free of government and that is a crucial check and balance to have with the Anti-Corruption Commission. I wait advice from my agency in the next appropriate avenues to pursue this matter.”

PAUL:

Now, it should be said that Stuart Robert strenuously denies any wrongdoing, and he says that there's been an abuse of parliamentary privilege in drawing attention to this statement.

RUBY:

And Paul, Stuart Robert has already resigned from Parliament and that has triggered a by-election for his Gold Coast seat. So these revelations, do they turn this by-election into a judgement for voters on how Robert performed?

PAUL:

Well, the Gold Coast by-election for that sort of Fadden is on July 15. So it's just three weeks away. And this week, Labor launched its campaign for its candidate, Letitia del Fabbro. At the last election she secured a 4% swing against Robert, but he was able to hold onto the seat with a quite handsome margin of 10.6%. Now if the Liberals, of course, are unable to hold this seat, well it would be a massive rebuff for Peter Dutton. And I have to say to you, Ruby, that it's not unprecedented that seats with margins like this can be lost if the by-election is caused by controversial ministers quitting early in the term.

Labor's national president, Wayne Swan, who was state secretary in Queensland a few years ago, he's had a lot to do with the way Queenslanders vote, and he tells me that the seat of Fadden is fairly disengaged from politics. It's well-heeled older voters. You know, I think they're doing well enough not to take too much notice of what's going on in Canberra, But the Prime Minister and the Queensland branch of the Labor Party, they know they have to put in a huge effort to try and lift the stocks of Labor federally in Queensland. And they see this by-election as an opportunity to raise profile, not only on the Gold Coast, but on the hinterland and even in southern Brisbane. The Liberals have six marginal seats, mainly in south east Queensland that would be vulnerable if Labor could lift its vote. And state Labor managed to actually win a seat on the Gold Coast at the last election. So it's not surprising that Peter Dutton is very wary, especially as he's still shellshocked over what happened in the Aston by-election in Melbourne. The 100 year loss of an opposition party to the government and that by election you might remember, well, he says all by-elections are tight contests, and he says the Labor Party will have all sorts of dirty tactics and smear campaigns. But Ruby, the problem for the Opposition Leader here is that Roberts is not facing baseless smears. He's facing quite serious allegations on several fronts and in two forums. And I've got to say there's quite a back catalogue of them building up.

RUBY:

Yeah Paul, so Synergy 360, it's not the only set of allegations against Stuart Robert that could be fresh in the minds of voters on polling day. Stuart Robert also featured heavily earlier this year at the Robodebt Royal Commission, and the findings from that, they’re due to be made public very soon, aren't they?

PAUL:

Well, that's right. The Robodebt royal Commission is due to hand its findings to the Governor-General in the first week of July. Now, the Government is expected to mull over its conclusions and release them a week later. And that just happens to be days before the voters trudge off to the polls in Fadden. And you can be sure that the Royal Commission's findings will dominate the headlines in that week. You might remember, Ruby, Roberts' evidence before that inquiry was quite stunning, if not shocking. He admitted to lying about the scheme because, as he told Commissioner Katherine Holmes, “it is as a dutiful cabinet minister, ma'am, That's what we do.”

Archival tape – Anthony Albanese:

“And can I welcome Letitia!”

Archival tape – Reporter (7 News):

“Labor is launching their returning candidate from last year's federal poll: Letitia Del Fabbro…”

PAUL:

Well, at Labor's launch in Fadden this week, Anthony Albanese said that we need to remember why we're having this by-election. He pointed out that Robert had suddenly resigned without explaining himself to Parliament or to the voters of Fadden, after having presided over the most shocking and cruel failure in the history of Australian politics.

Archival tape – Anthony Albanese:

“That's the sort of person that Peter Dutton thought was good enough to serve in a senior role on an ongoing basis in his shadow ministry. And that's the sort of candidate that the LNP thought was good enough for this local community.”

PAUL:

And the Prime Minister, by contrast, painted his candidate, Letitia del Fabbro, as a person who, quote, “wants her community to be represented by someone with integrity.”

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Paul, we've been talking about this test that the Liberal Party will face over Stuart Robert and his conduct. But at the same time, polls are beginning to show a narrowing lead for the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, who until now had been riding high in the approval stakes. So tell me about what we're beginning to see.

PAUL:

Well, we're beginning to see something, well, fairly dramatic. There were two polls this week that showed a slide in Anthony Albanese's approval in the Newspoll. It was quite a dramatic slide of an approval of +20, down to an approval of +10. In the latest Essential poll, Albanese's personal approval and his lead over Dutton, well, it narrowed. But if we dig into the weeds of that poll, while Albanese and Dutton are almost neck and neck among male voters, the edge was still with the Prime Minister. But Albanese enjoyed a big lead among women, with 39% giving him a positive rating, compared with 23% for Dutton.

And this appears to be driven by these very tough economic conditions we're seeing. More than two thirds of voters, 68%, think the Albanese Government isn't doing enough to ensure affordable and secure rentals. While three quarters, 75%, said the same about the cost of living. And as we saw, the Greens particularly went very hard on rent relief in the last two sitting weeks of the Parliament. But overall support for the Labor Party, on a two party preferred basis, well, it remains high. The average lead for Labor in the latest batch of opinion polls is close to 12%, and it's remained in double digits since May last year. What's interesting, Ruby, is that these latest polls show a continued fragmenting of the electorate; with younger people and women, and other demographic groups increasingly having very different views from one another. And what's also interesting, as people are ageing, they normally go more conservative, but that's not happening this time, according to the polls. The bigger polling concern for the Government in the near term will be the referendum for recognition of First Nations people in the constitution. It's slumped to its lowest level of support since the referendum was announced.

Archival tape – Peta Credlin (Sky News):

“According to the data, support for The Voice has slipped another 4 points to a new low of 43%, meanwhile the No vote has risen up 4 to 47%...”

PAUL:

In the latest Newspoll. Overall, it's slumped below 50% and behind the ‘No’ vote.

Archival tape – Peta Credlin (Sky News):

“Only New South Wales and Victoria are the states that are likely, still at this stage, to vote ‘yes’. It’s also worth mentioning the only demographic where the ‘yes’ vote now is still above 50%, is university graduates aged 18-34…”

PAUL:

Also, which is of interest for the voters in Fadden. Newspoll reported that the strongest ‘No’ vote was in Queensland, with 54%.

RUBY:

And Paul, those polling numbers for the voice to Parliament. How have they been taken in Canberra this week, and what would it mean for the Government if those numbers were reproduced on polling day?

PAUL:

Well Ruby, it's difficult to say what a defeat of the referendum would do for Albanese's standing with voters or indeed with his standing amongst his colleagues, which I've got to say is very high. And there's a great cohesion in the government at the moment. But the Prime Minister has invested so much political capital in it. I was given an interesting remark from a long time Labor strategist during the week. He says that Albanese has been ruled more from his heart than his head. And this strategist, who's got a lot of experience in politics, believes that Albanese hasn't given himself enough wriggle room. I find it hard to agree with that. I mean you either support the referendum or you don't. And I do know that Albanese has for many years felt that the dispossession and injustice suffered by First Nations people should be addressed urgently as reconciliation. A unifying moment for the nation. Constitutional lawyer Greg Craven wrote in The Weekend Australian “the Voice is driven by the enduring principle of fairness.” And I think as Australians we like to think of ourselves as people who, you know, are all for a fair go. The headwinds, though, for this referendum, if the trend of the polls over recent months is any guide, the headwinds are more like a blizzard. But Albanese says he believes a majority of Australians will see it as a once in a generation opportunity to enrich and uplift our nation.

RUBY:

Paul, thank you so much for your time.

PAUL:

Thank you. Ruby Bye.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today…

Former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian engaged in serious corruption, according to findings from the NSW ICAC.

ICAC found that Berejiklian had undeclared conflicts of interest in regard to her relationship with former Wagga Wagga MP, Daryl Maguire – particularly in dealing with money that was awarded to projects in his electorate.

Since the scandal, Berejiklian has taken an executive job with Optus, which she will continue in.

And…

Ben Roberts-Smith has accepted he has to pay the legal costs for the media organisation he sued in his failed defamation case.

This could put Roberts-Smith on the hook for up to $30 million dollars to Nine newspapers.

Lawyers for Nine told the court yesterday that they also have an interest in pursuing the Seven Network, and its boss Kerry Stokes’ companies for costs, which are believed to have supported Roberts-Smith’s lawsuit.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Zoltan Fecso, Cheyne Anderson, Yeo Choong, and Chris Dengate.

Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow. Our editor is Scott Mitchell.

Sarah McVeigh is our head of audio. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing by Andy Elston, Travis Evans, and Atticus Bastow.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

If you’ve been enjoying the show, please give us a rating and a review – and, tell your friends.

I’m Ruby Jones, see you next week.

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