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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

Australia’s closest neighbour, Papua New Guinea, is on the verge of a covid-19 crisis.

Case numbers have doubled in the past two weeks and thousands of people in the country are now infected, pushing the local health system to the brink.

To try and contain the outbreak new isolation measures have been announced. Concerns about Covid-19 spreading to high risk communities in the Torres Strait have led the Australian government to restrict travel from Papua New Guinea.

Today, The Saturday Paper’s world editor Jonathan Pearlman on the danger facing Papua New Guinea and whether it can be avoided.

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RUBY:

Jonathan, what kind of impact has the pandemic had on life in Papua New Guinea up to this point? Because it’s this country that's close to places in the Pacific that have had very few cases of Covid-19, but it's also close to Indonesia for example, where tens of thousands of people have died. So what has it been like for Papua New Guinea?

JONATHAN:

So the first cases in Papua New Guinea arrived around the same time as they were starting to arrive in Australia and across the Pacific, it was, it was back in March.

I think the first case was a mine worker from Australia who was working in PNG and had been holidaying in Europe. And there were sporadic cases after that. But Papua New Guinea quickly moved to contain the outbreak. There was a lockdown, and it was effective. And the virus was largely under control for about eight or nine months with occasional flare ups.

But then things started to change very quickly.

Archival tape -- News Reporter 1:

“Now to closer to home - Australia has been doing incredibly well on Covid-19 and much of the Pacific has as well. But unfortunately cases have surged in recent days in Papua New Guinea.”

JONATHAN

And in February, the number of cases and community transmitted cases started to rise.

Archival tape

“Just over the last month and I’d say just the last week things have become really concerning in PNG”

JONATHAN

The current surge in numbers is believed to have been exacerbated by the two week mourning period that's occurred recently across the country for Sir Michael Somare, who died in late February.

Archival tape -- News Reporter 2:

“A full house to farewell a grand chief…”

JONATHAN

He was the first prime minister of PNG, served as prime minister for years, was an independence leader and there have been multiple different funerals and events for him.

Archival tape

“We pray to long repose, long soul, long Sir Michael Thomas Somare…”

JONATHAN

But health experts were trying to get the government to cancel a state funeral and the government didn't.

Archival tape -- News Reporter 3:

Thousands packed the stadium and even more gathered outside. People were asked to wear masks but few did.

JONATHAN

And since then, really, the virus has just taken off.

Archival tape -- News Reporter 4:

PNG is facing a major crisis as it’s hit hard by covid 19 with five people dying in just a 24 hour period…

JONATHAN

And now the country is facing a devastating situation that could completely overwhelm its health system.

RUBY:

Right, OK. And so how many covid cases are we talking about here? What are the figures?

JONATHAN:

Look, officially, Papua New Guinea has recorded over twenty four hundred cases as of last week, which sounds quite low for a country with a population of around nine million people. But the problem is that the country has one of the world's lowest testing rates, so Papua New Guinea has conducted 55,000 tests just to compare. Australia has conducted more than 15 million tests. So we really don't know exactly how widespread this epidemic is in Papua New Guinea.

And there are concerns that actually rates might be staggeringly high.

Archival tape -- Annastacia Palaszczuk

“One thing we are very concerned about is that we have major concerns now about what is happening in PNG.”

JONATHAN:

And those concerns really were increased last Monday when Queensland's Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk revealed that the state health authorities had conducted some testing for Papua New Guinea.

Archival tape -- Annastacia Palaszczuk

“We have been assisting with some tests in PNG, and out of the 500 tests our health authorities have done for PNG, 250 have come back positive. So this is a real concern…”

JONATHAN:

That really triggered alarm in Australia, but it also triggered alarm in Papua New Guinea.

Archival tape -- Annastacia Palaszczuk

“Given our close proximity to PNG I do think it is something that we need to be very serious about…”

JONATHAN:

And since then, it's believed that daily case numbers have continued to rise.

RUBY:

OK, and so what is the impact of all of this then on Papua New Guinea's health system? Because it sounds like it must be under significant pressure.

JONATHAN:

Yes. So Papua New Guinea has a desperately underfunded and poorly resourced health system that is ill equipped to deal with a serious Covid-19 outbreak. The country has about six doctors per 100000 people just to compare again, Australia has about 370.

Archival tape -- Glen Mola

“I was born in Australia, but I've been in PNG since the 60s. I have 50 years of medical experience and standing in the community…”

JONATHAN:

Glen Mola, who's the head of obstetrics and gynaecology at Port Moresby General Hospital, which is the country’s biggest hospital has said that 20 per cent of pregnant women who are who are turning up to the hospital to be admitted to its labour ward have tested positive for Covid-19.

Archival tape -- Glen Mola

“We're getting about four or five positive patients a day now. So now we're at the we're at the phase of this epidemic where we're in the exponential upsurge of it.”

JONATHAN:

Mary Bagita, who's also an obstetrician and gynaecologist at Port Moresby Hospital, said that last week they had three caesareans booked in on one day and all three of those women turned out to be covid-19 positive.

Archival tape -- Mary Bagita

“And the third one, she's quite unwell. She's needing respiratory support. So both mother and baby are not doing well. And, you know, we just had to sort of negotiate. Which to do which was best for her and for baby, so we use some hard decisions to make today.”

JONATHAN:

The hospital staff are testing positive in large numbers in the maternity ward. They're losing about 10 staff members awake, midwives, doctors and support staff.

Archival tape -- Mary Bagita

“We're sort of stretched having to redo the roster like on a daily basis because we don't know who's going to be feeling sick and needs to go and be tested and then leave. We’re sort of keeping our head above water.”

RUBY:

Mm, so the health system in Papua New Guinea is already underfunded and under-resourced. But now that’s been compounded now by the outbreak, placing it under extra strain. So can you tell me what this all means for Papua New Guinea? Would you call it a crisis?

JONATHAN:

Yes, it's a disastrous situation for Papua New Guinea. Doctors like Glen Mola are fearful that hospitals will have to shut their doors because they just won't have enough staff to care for people.

Archival tape -- Glen Mola

“We're just so concerned that we'll get down to levels which we don't really know yet. What I mean, if we get down to 50 percent of our workforce, can we keep going? Probably, possibly not, and then what do we do?”

JONATHAN:

Mola says that the more than 50 women who present for pregnancy care every day may end up having to go home, which will put them at great risk. And the same goes for all the people who are turning up to the hospital for life saving treatments. He's genuinely worried that people will end up dying in the car park of the hospital.

Archival tape -- Glen Mola

“And yeah, I mean, at what point do we is it just people who just collapse with exhaustion or not come to work because they can't cope anymore? And at that point, well you just close the doors, don't you? And then there'll be chaos, of course.”

JONATHAN:

So it's a truly dire situation. And experts and doctors like Mola have been putting pressure on Australia and other countries to help.

Archival tape -- Glen Mola

“So that's why the vaccine is so important for us to immunise, uh, frontline health workers as soon as possible.”

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Jonathan, the government in Papua New Guinea has been asking Australia for support… So what has our federal government announced in response?

Archival tape -- Scott Morrison

“Good morning, everyone. I'm joined by Minister Payne and Minister Seselja, the minister for the Pacific…”

JONATHAN:

Yes. So the first thing that the government in Australia announced was that they were scaling back flights from Papua New Guinea into Australia to try to contain the spread of the virus in Australia.

Archival tape -- Scott Morrison

“Now, it is also true that the escalation of issues with the virus in Papua New Guinea presents very real risks to Australia as well.”

JONATHAN:

And then responding to calls to get vaccines to Papua New Guinea

Archival tape -- Scott Morrison

“Our government will also be moving immediately to give 8000 doses of our Covid-19 vaccine stocks…”

JONATHAN:

Morrison announced that Australia would send eight thousand doses of the vaccine to the country. They will come from Australia's supply. But in addition to that, Australia plans to source a million doses from the AstraZeneca supply that it's contracted to receive. It's going to send a million of those doses to Papua New Guinea.

Archival tape -- Scott Morrison

“We've contracted it, we've paid for them, and we want to see those vaccines come here so we can support our nearest neighbour. PNG, deal with their urgent needs in our region…”

JONATHAN:

Australia has also sent a small team of doctors to Papua New Guinea this week to assess the situation. It's helping to set up some testing centres. It's providing more than a million masks, hundred ventilators and other protective equipment.

Archival tape -- Scott Morrison

“They’re family. They're our friends. They're our neighbours. They're our partners. They have always stood with us and we will always stand with them. This is in Australia's interests and is in our region's interests…”

RUBY:

So, Jonathan, is this going to be enough? Does it look like it will be possible to actually control the outbreak at this stage?

JONATHAN:

Well, some aid groups have praised Australia's response, but others say that more supplies are going to be quickly needed. There are calls for at least 12000 doses, more to be sent to Papua New Guinea immediately so that it's frontline health workers can be immunised. And getting the vaccines, there is only one part of the solution.

So the PNG government faces a monumental logistical task of distributing vaccines to a country. It's a difficult country to reach large parts of the population in. This is a country with more than 800 languages, with remote areas that have little road access, little or no Internet access, little communication access. So reaching parts of Papua New Guinea is going to be extremely difficult.

And for months, health experts and aid groups have been warning that the national and state authorities in Papua New Guinea need to develop a plan for working together and coordinating the rollout. And there's no evidence that such a plan has yet been developed.

RUBY:

Right and so while they wait for the vaccine, then what are doctors on the ground saying? People like Glenn Mola and Mary Bagita, what are they telling you about the situation at the moment?

JONATHAN:

Mary says that staff numbers are dwindling and that they're losing more people every day.

Archival tape -- Mary Bagita

“So we're left with six residents and registrars we have about 17 registrars and we've had four who needed to go in quarantine. And our consultant team of seven, two of them quite senior. So we sent them away.”

JONATHAN:

Glen is one of the consultants who the hospital staff sent away.

Archival tape -- Glen Mola

“They actually sent me away because I'm 74 and they said go get vaccinated. At that point last week, there was no news at all about when our first lot of vaccine would arrive. People were talking about April.”

JONATHAN:

And there’s really serious concerns about how quickly this could spiral.

In the time it would take to get enough vaccines to Papua New Guinea and deliver them to the community, the virus could just keep spreading.

The one saving grace at the moment is that the outbreak seems mainly confined to cities where younger people tend to live. The population is younger and healthier and more able to deal with an outbreak, as well, cities where the better medical services are.

But the fear is that this could get out of the cities, into villages and remote areas where the bulk of the population is and where a lot of the population is older and more vulnerable. And that's when we could start seeing really rising numbers of deaths.

Archival tape -- Glen Mola

“All our old people, our grandparents are in the villages. So once this infection gets out into the rural areas, then it's going to be a disaster for all our grandparents.

So yeah keep thinking of us in PNG please because we are our nearest neighbour and couple of hundred metres north of the Torres Strait and we're not going away we will be your neighbours forever.”

JONATHAN:

So I think it shows just how serious this outbreak is and explains why the Papua New Guinea government is so concerned about it and why countries like Australia are to starting to respond.

RUBY:

Jonathan, thanks for your time today.

JONATHAN:

Thanks, Ruby.

RUBY:

By Monday there were over three thousand cases of Covid-19 recorded in Papua New Guinea. Seventy percent of people reporting to hospital with cold or flu symptoms have been testing positive.

New measures have been introduced to curb the spread of the virus.

Restrictions on travel around the country have been implemented, as well as caps on the number of people on public transport and at public gatherings.

Those restrictions came into effect yesterday.

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RUBY:

Also in the news...
In NSW nearly 20,000 people have so far been evacuated from their homes due to flooding.
The Mid-North Coast of NSW is the most affected area, and some regions have seen almost 900mm of rain in six days.
The floods have led the Insurance Council of Australia to declare an insurance catastrophe, with more than 5000 claims lodged over the weekend.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am, see you tomorrow.

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