RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

The Prime Minister is trying to calibrate his climate policy to better fit into a post-Trump world, but he faces a conservative revolt on his own backbench. Australia is facing the real threat of trade sanctions if it doesn’t implement serious emissions reduction targets. But it is not clear if political paralysis will allow the current government to do so.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno, on the Coalition's climate standoff.

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RUBY:

Paul, I wanted to start by asking you about an event the Prime Minister attended at the beginning of this week, at an airforce base in NSW. It seemed a bit unusual. Can you tell me about it?

PAUL:

Well, his opponents don’t call the Prime Minister ‘Scotty From Marketing’ for nothing. On Monday he did a minutely planned photo opportunity when he visited the RAAF Base at Williamtown in New South Wales. He and his entourage arrived at the event to the blaring strains of Danger Zone by Kenny Loggins. That was the one used in the soundtrack for the 1986 action movie Top Gun, starring Tom Cruise. Morrison took so long to get to the podium they had to play the track twice. And as you say, it did look a bit unusual. Certainly, the wags on social media thought it was the PM lampooning himself

RUBY:

Ok. So what was this all about, Paul? What was the Prime Minister doing at the air force base?

PAUL:

Well, the event was to mark the role the base will play in maintaining the Joint Strike Fighter jets. They are the ones that Australia has pumped up $17 billion to purchase. And as far as the PM was concerned, the engineers and pilots and planners...

Archival tape -- Scott Morrsion

“And everyone who is involved in this project is a Top Gun in my view”

PAUL:

But Ruby as the rest of the week panned out, it was crystal clear that Morrison is no top gun when it comes to delivering the sort of decisive leadership Australia needs if it is to participate in the reinvigorated global efforts to contain catastrophic climate change. While Morrison was top gunning on defence policy…. a revolt on his own backbench over net-zero emissions by 2050 from senior Nationals highlighted just how far behind this game Australia is. The new US president and even the conservative Prime minister in Britain, Boris Johnson, is making Australia’s top gun look more like a pilot in a simulator.

RUBY:

MM ok. There’s obviously no doubt the election of Joe Biden who sees climate change as an existential threat for the planet has re-ignited a global push to seriously tackle carbon emissions. But in this respect, Australia is starting to seem like a bit of an outlier. What’s the risk here for us, Paul?

PAUL:

At the last election the Liberals, you may remember, derided Labor’s interim target of 45 per cent emissions reduction by 2030, they said it was as an economy wrecking prescription.

Archival tape -- Scott Morrsion

“There is a difference between the emissions reduction target that we are putting forward in this election, which doesn’t choose between the economy and the environment, it chooses both and what the Labour Party is proposing…”

PAUL:

The new Biden climate plan aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector to net zero by 2035. Furthermore Biden, like the European Union and the United Kingdom, will factor in carbon tariffs for future trading arrangements. The new US President intends to exert as much leverage as possible in confronting climate change and his approach has created a stronger impetus for countries, including Australia, to adopt a target of net-zero emissions by 2050. Something that the current federal government has refused so far to do.

RUBY:

Ok, so we could risk losing out in terms of trade deals because of the federal government’s unwillingness to reduce emissions? Is that right?

PAUL:

That’s exactly right. Already the issue has come up in negotiations with the United Kingdom and the European Union for new free trade agreements the Morrison government is pursuing. The evolving geo-political situation will be an acid test, you know Ruby, for the Prime Minister’s claim that he will not be dictated to by other countries but will always put Australia’s interests first. The problem for Morrison is that he’s caught between the demands of the powerful countries we need to trade with and we do trade with, and the pro-mining and fossil fuel interests backing his own government and within his own government.

RUBY:

Can you tell me more about that Paul? Who specifically are the pro-mining and fossil fuel interests that are holding Scott Morrison back when it comes to taking stronger action?

PAUL:

Well, primarily it’s the Nationals. They have served notice that they will not readily accept a net-zero target. That pushback is being led by three former ministers of the party, now relegated to the backbench. Former Party leader Barnaby Joyce, with ambitions of course of a comeback;

Archival tape -- Barnaby Joyce

“I think that, first of all, we should actually see all the details of what's implied by a net 2050 target…”

PAUL:

Former Resources Minister, Matt Canavan

Archival tape -- Matt Canavan

“I’m opposed to this policy because it’s mythical”

PAUL:

And former Sports (rorts) Minister, Brigid McKenzie

Archival tape -- Brigid McKenzie

“The Nationals have been very very clear. We won't be taking a blind leap of faith on a zero emissions by 2050”

PAUL:

Well, they blitzed the media this week with their ultimatums. They are determined to set the agenda and preferably, replace the current leader and deputy prime minister Michael McCormack. Joyce and Canavan wrote an opinion piece in The Australian where they said while they “can’t stop signing up to a target…we can vote against any subsequent legislation if it is noxious to our constituents.” You might remember, Joyce in opposition was a serial floor crosser and says it gets easier, the more you do it.

If Morrison was of a mind to call Joyce’s bluff it could see the government’s effective one seat majority in the House of Representatives disappear. Now, to try and mitigate against that threat, government sources are telling journalists off the record that no legislation is needed to set the target. But while that might be a solution to Morrison’s immediate problems, it doesn’t resolve the bigger political issue. Which is that he’s caught between shifting global opinion and rusted on, recalcitrant backbenchers who are refusing to budge.

RUBY:

We will be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Paul, what is Scott Morrison going to do to navigate his way through this situation? Do you think he will rebuff the Nationals and push ahead with a 2050 target of net-zero?

PAUL:

Well Ruby, the Prime Minister went on a spin offensive this week. Behind the scenes, he and his team were working hard to convince the Canberra Press Gallery for one that he will take a 2050 net-zero commitment to the Glasgow Climate Conference hosted by Boris Johnson at the end of the year. He’s clearly aware of the global mood, and in fact the mood in Australia, where there’s now strong support for a net-zero target and real action to get there.

And in fact, he has little choice but to make an announcement along these lines. I guess, the question is how does he plan to get there? Well, he says by technology and not taxes. But, not even Morrison can believe that some new technology on the eve of New Year 2050 can make up for doing nothing significant for thirty years, as Barnaby Joyce and his mates seem to be espousing.

RUBY:

Right, so basically we are in this situation where even if Scott Morrison publicly says he supports a net-zero target, that won’t mean much unless his own government allows him to take steps that would be needed to enact it?

PAUL:

Basically. Deputy PM Michael McCormack at the weekend tried to sue for peace when he suggested agriculture could be excluded when compiling Australia’s net-zero numbers. Basically a ‘carve out’ for the farming sector and the Nationals base. But Matt Canavan completely rejected the idea.

He says the net-zero target is mythical because he believes no one actually will achieve it or in fact, wants to achieve it. On Sky News he said “it’s a bit like saying if we just shut down 95 per cent of the economy but protect 5 per cent, everything will be OK.” And then came the crunching conclusion, he asked rhetorically...

Archival tape -- Matt Canavan

“How are we going to mine coal? How are we going to expand and develop Northern Australian agriculture if we are not allowed to clear land, if we are not allowed to build coal mines?”

RUBY:

So, Paul, do we know what farmer’s are saying about this proposal given that they seem to be critical here when we are talking about a proposed ‘carve out’ of agriculture?

PAUL:

Well the Nationals rebels are at odds with the National Farmers Federation who support the target. In fact, the rebel Nationals’ position angers many of their own farmers. One from Central Queensland, Domenica Jensen on ABC Radio accused Canavan and his crew of using farmers as a cover for their real agenda.

Archival tape -- Domenica Jensen

“The Nationals...under the guide of agriculture…You know he can say ‘Look, I’m doing it for coal’, that’s fine... coal is another important, iconic industry but don’t do it under the guise of agriculture…’

PAUL:

She says the “climate is getting hotter and hotter and more and more farmers are dealing with incredible suffering.” She said “we won’t have much of an industry if the climate keeps getting hotter and drier.”

Archival tape -- Domenica Jensen

“So it's okay to politically pretend you are advocating for farmers but have you come out and spoken to all of us and maybe have a look at what it’s like to desperately wait, you know, for one rain even to another after you’ve invested $100,000 to put a crop in and just watch it die due to lack of rain? Maybe those are the conversations he needs to connect with.”

PAUL:

Another farmer, Anika Molesworth told RN Breakfast the Nationals rebels were making her extremely anxious about an “irresponsible failure of leadership’

Archival tape -- Anika Molesworth

“You look at the projections. You look at the trajectory that we are currently on. You look at the political inaction on addressing this issue in the serious and urgent manner that it is and you do feel a sense of despair”

PAUL:

And Ruby there’s no doubt that the coal lobby, rather than the farming sector, is the more influential player here. Because the big miners bankroll in a big way The Liberals and The Nationals.

RUBY:

So Paul, where does all of this leave Scott Morrison? He doesn’t want to be isolated on the world stage… but he seems to be completely at the mercy of a small group of Nationals MPs. What does this mean for actual climate policy?

PAUL:

Well Ruby, it means the time to truly end the climate wars in Australia is well and truly arrived. You know, Morrison needs a break with the past and decisive real leadership and I can tell you, if he shows it, it will be welcomed by farmers and by many Liberal MP’s, particularly in metropolitan seats whose voters are now demanding that real action be taken to address what is this climate crisis.

RUBY:

Paul thanks so much for talking to me today.

PAUL:

Thanks Ruby, bye!

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RUBY:

Also in the news today - Melbourne’s Holiday Inn outbreak has grown to 10 cases as two more people linked to the COVID-19 cluster, tested positive yesterday. Victorian Health Officials said the two new infections were both household contacts of existing cases.

And Australia's Chief Medical Officer, Paul Kelly, has said the roll out of the vaccine is still on track to take place later this month. Kelly said that vaccinating quarantine workers was a priority and they would be at the front of the queue.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Ruby Schwartz, Elle Marsh, Atticus Bastow, Michelle Macklem and Cinnamon Nippard.

Brian Campeau mixes the show.

Our editor is Osman Faruqi. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

New episodes of 7am are released every weekday morning.

Subscribe on your favourite podcast app to make sure you don’t miss out.

I’m Ruby Jones, see you next week.