[Theme Music Starts]

RUBY:

From Schwartz Media I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

Traditionally, the Liberal Party’s biggest threat at federal elections is the Labor Party. But this time they’re facing an insurgency in their heartland.

A number of high profile and well resourced independent candidates are challenging Liberal MPs in some of the party’s safest seats.

Today - National Correspondent for The Saturday Paper, Mike Seccombe on what’s motivating this wave of independents, and how they could end up shaping the future of Australian politics.

It’s Tuesday, December 7

[Theme Music Ends]

RUBY:

Mike, there are several independent candidates who have put up their hand to run in the next election, specifically to target current government MPs…is that unusual?

MIKE:

The circumstances this time around? Yes, are quite unusual. So, you know, the background is the federal election is now just months away, probably going to be held in May next year, and the coalition, having been in government nine years, is not in a very strong position.

In fact, if the polls are anything to go by, they are likely to lose a bunch of seats, and that would normally mean that Labour would pick them up and form government.

But this time around, things are a bit more complicated, and that's because we have a whole raft of high profile, well-funded independents targeting traditionally safe Liberal seats.

And if these independents are successful, it could transform the way our political system works, depending on what happens at the election. They could be kingmakers. They could have the power to decide who forms government and what kinds of policies are implemented to shape the future of the country. And in the case of climate policy, I guess the world.

RUBY:

Hmm. Okay. So who are these independents, Mike? Can you tell me more about the people who are running and what their platforms are?

MIKE:

There's a number of them.

Archival tape -- Kylea Tink:

“When was the last time you felt your voice or our North Sydney voice was being heard in Canberra?”

MIKE:

There's Kylea Tink, who's running for the Liberal seat of North Sydney, which I think is the second most affluent seat in the country.

Archival tape -- Kylea Tink:

“Will you join me in creating a future for young Australians in our community, our kids and their kids if they can be excited by?”

MIKE:

There's Allegra Spender, who's running in Wentworth, which is definitely the most affluent seat in the country.

Archival tape -- Allegra Spender:

“Today's Liberal Party is not the same party of my father and my grandfather. I am sick of the false choices that the parties have created. You can be pro environment and pro business.”

MIKE:

Linda Seymour and Georgia Steele are both running in Hughes.

Archival tape -- Georgia Steele:

“This means when I stand up in the house, I'm standing up for you. Not for a party, not for vested interests, for you, if you care, don't just sit there. I know I won't. Share this message and let's make you stronger with Steele!”

MIKE:

And there's a number of others, and we'll see more in the coming days and weeks. I can tell you that for a fact. People running similar campaigns in Liberal held seats. And these have been very safe for a very long time. Wentworth was Malcolm Turnbull's old seat. So, you can get from this a sense of just how significant a move this is and why it's of concern to the Liberal Party. One of the most interesting contests, in my view, is shaping up in the electorate of Goldstein, which is another traditionally safe Liberal seat in Melbourne.

RUBY:

OK, so why is Goldstein one to watch, Mike?

MIKE:

Well, it's got a very interesting candidate - an independent candidate - up against a rather controversial incumbent. The incumbent is Tim Wilson. He's the former policy director for the right wing think tank, the Institute of Public Affairs.

And the contender is Zoe Daniel.

Archival tape -- Zoe Daniel:

“I’ve been an observer for a long time, I've been kind of in the room a lot watching. And it was just a case of saying, well, I can't just sit back and watch this anymore.”

MIKE:

Who's a former ABC journalist and longtime foreign correspondent.

Archival tape -- Zoe Daniel:

“I actually have to get in there and try to help create some progress on this stuff.”

MIKE:

So anyway, I spoke to Daniel about why she decided to run.

Archival tape -- Zoe Daniel:

“I was in effect pushed over the line by my kids, who obviously I had to talk to about how they would feel about me, not only campaigning and potentially getting into parliament and then being away a lot.”

MIKE:

And she told me that it was actually her kids who encouraged her to do it. And so she said she's doing it essentially for their sake.

Archival tape -- Zoe Daniel:

“They're really concerned about climate, but they're also just really frustrated at the lack of progress on climate policy. They just feel like there's a lot of wasted time and there isn't time to waste.”

MIKE:

So anyway, climate change is a big issue for her and for her family, as is integrity and politics in general and the behaviour of the government. I mean, she told me that the state of things in Australia at the moment reminds her a lot of covering Donald Trump in Washington.

Archival tape -- Zoe Daniel:

“Just this sense of a lack of honesty, of sort of being gaslighted, you know, just a sense of not, not getting a straight answer ever and a lot of manipulation of information having covered Trump. That's something that really concerns me deeply.”

MIKE:

Another interesting layer to this, of course, is that Daniel told me that she actually voted Liberal in 2016, largely because she supported Malcolm Turnbull. Who was then the Prime Minister because of his apparent commitment to addressing the climate crisis.

RUBY:

Right, ok. So Zoe Daniel has gone from voting for Tim Wilson to running against him. And that's it sounds largely due to her position that the government isn't doing enough on climate change. Is Tim Wilson worried about the competition Mike?

MIKE:

Well, I think he has a reason to be concerned.

Archival tape -- Tim Wilson:

“It's time Australia recognised reality, followed other developed countries out of the Kyoto Protocol and ditched the carbon tax it helped create.”

MIKE:

You know, thanks to his affiliation with the IPA, and I might add other statements that he's made more recently, he isn't seen as being supportive of stronger climate change action.

Archival tape -- Tim Wilson:

“We do it on the basis of outcomes, we've set a clear target and which we're meeting and beating. And that's the basis in which we can have a conversation about whether we go forward.”

MIKE:

So that puts him, I think, significantly out of his step with his electorate. You know, Goldstein is one of those wealthy electorates that is sort of peopled by electors who are reasonably economically conservative but socially progressive.

You know, just last week, Wilson claimed that a proposal to establish an independent climate change commission, which would provide advice to the government on how best to get to its net zero target by 2050. He said the establishment of such an independent commission amounted to quote subversion and treason, unquote.

So that gives you a fair idea of where he's coming from. So anyway, he's got cause to worry I think and so does the Liberal Party more broadly.

There are strong indications out there that a lot of voters who have otherwise always voted Liberal in safe Liberal seats are now considering not doing so. So this raises two big questions.
A) Why is it happening to the Liberal Party now? And the second one, of course, is what chance do these independents have of actually winning?

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

[Advertisement]

RUBY:

Mike, we've been talking about the independents who are running in the upcoming election, there are quite a few of them. People like former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel, and they're challenging Liberal seats. So why is this happening now? What has prompted this rush of challenges on Liberal held seats?

MIKE:

Well, there's a number of reasons, and most of them have to do with the current policy approach of the federal government, and climate is obviously the big one, I would suggest. The coalition has established itself over the past few years as a global climate laggard. You know, the dismal targets set by the government at the recent climate summit in COP26 is just one example of that. And voters, particularly the young and those in these wealthy but socially progressive Liberal held seats, are showing more and more interest in their government, taking strong action on climate change.

So that's one factor, the other factor here is that a number of groups have emerged over the past few years that are raising very large sums of money. Millions of dollars to support independents who are focussed on climate change and money is a big consideration in electoral contests, and in the past, independents have not been well supported. It's not just Zoe Daniel who's passionate about climate. The other independents that I spoke to, like Kylea Tink in North Sydney and Allegra Spender, are also making that a big part of their campaign.

RUBY:

Hmm. OK, so climate change clearly is a big factor here. But what are the other policy issues that are motivating these independents?

MIKE:

Well, the second big issue is integrity and anti-corruption. Kylea Tink, for example, told me that at the last election she voted Liberal.

Archival tape -- Kylea Tink:

“The last three years have just been extremely disappointing..”

MIKE:

And she believed Scott Morrison's, quote very clear promise unquote of a national integrity commission.

Archival tape -- Kylea Tink:

“You know, there was a very clear promise at the last federal election that an integrity commissioner would be put into place at the federal level. And there has not even, you know, made it through the house in a significant way.”

MIKE:

Instead, you know, the government has done nothing and has demonstrated that it's only interested in bringing in a very watered down model of an integrity commission.

And of course, at the same time, you know, we've had various instances of corruption of process in the handing out of government grants and things like that. So I think there's clearly a sense, even in these very safe Liberal seats or traditionally safe Liberal seats, that the government is plagued by scandal and things need to be cleaned up.

And the third factor is gender equity and the representation and treatment of women. You know, there's grave disappointment out there with how Morrison has handled sexual harassment and assault complaints ever since Brittany Higgins went public with her allegation that she'd been raped in Parliament House. So I think it's telling that all the independents that I've spoken to are running against incumbent male MPs. You know, the issue of female representation, particularly on the Liberal side of politics, seems to be another key motivator. So those are the three main things: climate, integrity, gender equity; safety for women and representation. It's a kind of trifecta that is galvanising this movement, and I think also galvanising a lot of people who would once have voted Liberal.

RUBY:

It makes sense you can see why these candidates would be organising around these specific issues. But Mike, we have seen growing disenchantment with the major parties for decades now, with the rise of minor parties on both the right and the left. So do you think that this goes to something bigger about a growing dissatisfaction with the way that our political system operates?

MIKE:

Yes, I think it does.

I went seeking people who had long corporate memories or long political memories. So I spoke to Kerry O'Brien, you know, veteran political journalist, hosted ABC's 7.30 programme for decades. And he said that what we're seeing now, he thinks, has been coming for a long time. And it's not just an Australian phenomenon or one afflicting the Liberal Party, either. It's a crisis in democracy.
You know, he said: failure in policy, collapse of proper debate in parliament and a lack of perceived authenticity amongst politicians, and increasing polarisation. His bottom line is that the traditional Two-Party system is floundering.

RUBY:

Hmm. And what about the other big question Mike, can these independents win and what happens if they do?

MIKE:

Well, there are success stories, the movement's godmother - and I might add, I checked with her if I could call her that, and she embraced the description - Cathy McGowan. She won the Victorian seat of Indi back in 2013. Traditionally quite a conservative seat, and at the last election, she passed the baton to Helen Haines, which made it the first ever independent to independent succession in Australian history.

It's also, of course, a huge advantage to run against an unpopular Liberal opponent; Sophie Mirabella, who McGowan beat was, I think, to put it politely, not well-liked in Indi. And Tony Abbott, of course, who Zali Steggall beat, well, you know, his social conservatism, I think you would have to say, was very much at odds with the views of his electorate. So the recognition factor's big. But you know, it's still questionable whether a generic dislike of the Liberal Party, which is what we're seeing here, will necessarily attach to some of the incumbents that these independants are challenging.

I mean, Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney. Dave Sharma in Wentworth are actually fairly moderate people themselves. The argument that the independents are on, of course, is, well, so what? You know, they effectively once they get into parliament, they vote the same way as Barnaby Joyce, you know? So there's that aspect that it depends on the generalised dislike of the government attaching to the incumbent candidates. And then, of course, to win, these candidates will have to drive the Liberal vote down to well under 50 per cent in their respective electorates. And they also have to eat away a bit of the Green vote and the Labor vote, and that's not an easy task. I mean, it's really not, but it's been done before.

So if they do, it could be very, very interesting. The government has only a one seat majority, so even if just one of these independents is successful, that could be enough to spell the end for the Morrison government.
And if Labor doesn't quite get the numbers to govern in its own right, that could mean the independents are in the position of deciding who the government is and what policies passed through the parliament.
So, you know, these campaigns could end up having a huge impact. You know, and I think they are definitely one of the most interesting things to be watching in the upcoming election.

RUBY:

It sounds like interesting times ahead, Mike. Thanks for your time.

MIKE:

Thank you.

[Advertisement]

[Theme Music Starts]

RUBY:

Also in the news today,

The Prime Minister Scott Morrison has openly encouraged the former New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian to run as a Liberal candidate in the upcoming federal election, despite her being the subject of a New South Wales corruption inquiry.

Morrison told reporters on Monday that if Berejiklian wished to run for the federal seat of Warringah that it would be -quote- “a great opportunity.”

Speculation is growing that Berejiklian will run for the seat, against incumbent independent MP Zali Steggal.

And the New South Wales state government has overturned a planning decision that blocked the expansion of a coal mine near Wollongong.

The Dendrobium mine was blocked earlier this year after it was found the development could potentially cause irreversible damage to the region's drinking water.

Now the mine has been declared a state significant project, allowing the expansion to go ahead.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See you tomorrow.

[Theme Music Ends]