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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

As Russia sends troops to the border of Ukraine, speculation is mounting over whether the country’s president, Vladimir Putin, plans to invade.

Today, world editor at The Saturday Paper Jonathan Pearlman on the escalating tension in Europe, and the likelihood of war.

It’s Wednesday, February 2.

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RUBY:

Jonathan, over the past few weeks, there's been a significant escalation in both military and diplomatic tension between Russia and Ukraine. So can you step me through exactly what's been going on?

JONATHAN:

So the tension between Russia and Ukraine goes back a long, long way. But the recent crisis really started to flare up in about November last year.

Archival tape -- News:

“New satellite images Tonight show Russian forces at the ready near the Ukrainian border”

JONATHAN:

When American satellite imagery showed that Russia was amassing huge numbers of troops on the border with Ukraine

Archival tape -- News:

“Russia has amassed 100,000 troops near its borders with Ukraine, leading to grave international concern”

JONATHAN:

Now that obviously worried Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky said that they were close to 100,000 soldiers on the border.

Archival tape – Volodymyr Zelensky speaking Ukrainian about increase in troops in border

JONATHAN:

And he warned that Ukraine could be facing an attack in January or February.
As of today, there are more than 120,000 Russian troops surrounding Ukraine. there in Belarus, in Crimea, in Transnistria, this little breakaway state that's part of Moldova. So Ukraine is almost surrounded by this huge build-up of Russian troops.

Archival tape -- News:

“More Russian forces on the move surface to air missiles in the country's Far East due to join what Moscow says a military exercises near Ukraine.”

JONATHAN:

And it's led to real fears that Russia could invade

Archival tape -- News:

“what Western powers fear may be preparation for war.”

RUBY:

So there are hundreds of thousands of soldiers stationed at the border - which has led to a very real fear that Russia could invade Ukraine. So can you take a step back and tell me about what led to this escalation?

JONATHAN:

Yes. I think a lot of it has to do with the way that Putin views Ukraine, and he sees it as a state that has these natural and organic links to Russia, and that is a natural partner for Russia And Putin actually explained this in a 5000 would say that, he wrote last July.

RUBY:

So what does the essay say exactly?

JONATHAN:

It's sort of a flowering and taxing raid, so I wouldn't blame you if you hadn't read it. But he's saying it talks about the historical unity and the spiritual unity between Russia and Ukraine. He talks about the two states as being a single hole. And he argues in it that Russia and Ukraine, which became independent in 1991 as the Soviet Union was collapsing, are historically, economically and spiritually a single nation, and that the divide between them is artificial and is really a result of meddling by the West.

And following the publication of that essay in July, Anne Applebaum is a historian and commentator, described it as essentially a call to arms, laying the groundwork for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. So that was back in July last year.

RUBY:

Right? OK, so that sounds ominous. Then essentially, what Putin is saying is that Ukraine used to be part of Russia when both countries were part of the Soviet Union, and now Russia might want Ukraine back.

JONATHAN:

That's right. And this isn't the first time that Putin has moved in on Ukraine.
In 2014. He sees the region of Crimea.

Archival tape -- News:

“The Ukrainian flag is taken down and replaced with the Russian one.”

JONATHAN:

And he's also supported Russian backed separatists in the country's east in a really devastating war that's led to about 14,000 people dying since 2014. There are still curfews in place across Eastern Europe, and that conflict is still ongoing.

So, you know, with Crimea, Putin argued that the population there, who are mainly Russian speakers, wanted to be reunified with Russia.

But this has become an international issue because of the way Ukraine is seen as a sort of strategic buffer between Russia and the West. It's a huge country and extends right out to Poland and Hungary. And Russia has long resisted Ukraine's moves towards European institutions and towards the West and in particular towards NATO.

RUBY:

So what exactly is NATO, and why is Russia so resistant to the Ukraine joining it?

JONATHAN:

So NATO was formed after World War Two as this security alliance really between Europe, Western Europe and the US. And it was kind of lined up against the Soviets who had a Warsaw pact and who had their own alliances with all the Eastern Bloc countries. But following the end of the Cold War, what's happen ed is that a lot of those former Eastern Bloc countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union have been drifting towards NATO or joining NATO.

And Putin hates that. He hates that NATO is enlarging and that it's really sort of encroaching right up to Russia's borders now. He sees that as an act of aggression.

And so in the lead up to this latest escalation, Russia has demanded that Ukraine be banned from joining NATO. And he's also demanded that all NATO forces be withdrawn from all those former Soviet bloc states.

RUBY:

Mm ok, so Ukraine has this strategic value both to Russia and to the West, and that's because of its size and also its location. It's kind of the landmass in between, but it's also ideological. All as well, right, because Russia and Putin specifically see it as as naturally their territory Is the general view then that this current escalation, this is Putin using the threat of invasion as leverage - to try and achieve those demands that you mentioned, the demand that Ukraine never becomes part of NATO.

JONATHAN:

Definitely. That is exactly what Putin is doing. He wants to talk to to the US and to NATO. And that's where the negotiations have been happening. So Putin has spoken several times to Biden. There have been discussions between Moscow and Naito over this attempt to try to force NATO's back to Western Europe effectively.

And Russian officials are saying that unless the West accepts these demands, it's a dead end. And the US has made it clear that there is no way that it's going to accept these demands. And it's going to say that Ukraine can't join Naito or the nato-led troops will will pull back from Eastern Europe. I mean, to do that, to capitulate in that way would effectively spell the end of NATO.

So there is no clear end to this situation. It's a serious standoff, and Joe Biden warned last week that a Russian attack on Ukraine, if it happened, would be the largest invasion since World War Two and would change the world.

RUBY:

We'll be back after this.

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RUBY:

Jonathan, it seems like things are shifting fairly quickly when it comes to the future of Ukraine and what Russia may or may not do, but at this moment in time, what looks likely to happen next?

JONATHAN:

So on the Russian side, it looks like things will keep escalating. Russia continues to build up its troops around Ukraine and its announced military exercises on the Ukrainian border. Last week, Russia sent tanks into Belarus, a neighbouring country.

The big question and the real unknown is what will Biden and America's allies do in response in the event of a Russian military invasion?

RUBY:

OK, so what do we know about that, about what the U.S. and its allies might do?

JONATHAN:

It's very hard to predict, and it depends a lot on what Putin does. He has a range of options open to him from a full scale invasion of Ukraine and occupation of Kiev, the capital to more more limited offensives such as sort of slicing Ukraine in half.

Now, Putin says he does not plan to attack.

Archival tape -- News:

“We have no plans to invade. That was the message from Russia's foreign minister after talks with the US about Russian intentions in Ukraine.”

JONATHAN:

But Joe Biden has made it clear that he doesn't believe that he fears that there is a real prospect of an attack. And so countries like the US and its European allies are now starting to consider how to respond in the event of a Russian invasion.

Archival tape -- Biden:

“I suspect it matters which side of the bed he gets up on in the morning as to what he’s going to do.”

JONATHAN:

Biden has made clear that the U.S. will not militarily defend Ukraine. It's not going to be an all out war between the U.S. and Russia.

Archival tape -- Biden:

“Militarily, they have overwhelming superiority.”

JONATHAN:

But he has put 8500 troops on standby effectively to deploy to the area.

Archival tape -- Biden:

“But they'll pay a stiff price immediately, near-term, medium term and long term if they do it.”

JONATHAN:

And he is considering deploying other troops, including warships and aircraft, to NATO's allies across Eastern Europe, to try to warn Putin off an attack.

And of course, all that could have the opposite effect. You know, large American deployments, further deployments of American or British or Western troops to Eastern Europe could be seen as a provocation and could tempt or encourage Putin to attack.

RUBY:

And so, Jonathan, what is it like for people who are in Ukraine right now? Because I imagine it would be fairly terrifying to have your country surrounded by 120000 troops and not knowing what's going to happen next?

JONATHAN:

Yeah, it does seem terrifying. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky gave a televised address last week

Archival tape – Volodymyr Zelensky:

“The feeling you get from the media, is that we have a war, that we have troops on the roads, we have mobilisation.”

JONATHAN:

saying that everything is not simple but urging people not to panic.

Archival tape – Volodymyr Zelensky:

“That is not the case, we do not need this panic.”

JONATHAN:

And Ukraine's defence minister told Parliament that Russia's mobilisation was not enough for an invasion. He said, Don't worry, sleep well. No need to have your bags packed.

So Ukraine is trying to present Ukraine's leadership, at least is trying to encourage people to remain calm. But people are worried. There have been news clips of Ukrainians saying that they might leave. And certainly reports of Ukrainians in border areas preparing to evacuate if there's a Russian invasion.

RUBY:

OK, so a tense, precarious situation at the moment. No one is really sure how serious things might get, and I suppose the worst case scenario is a full scale invasion that Russia sends in those troops that are at the border sends them into Ukraine. What are the chances of that, in your opinion?

JONATHAN:

I think probably only Putin knows whether that's going to happen, and quite possibly he hasn't decided yet. Military experts are saying that Russia would need more forces to invade Ukraine. So at the moment, there's more than 120,000 troops, but they probably need around 175 to 200,000 troops, which is massive. I mean, that is bigger than the US led forces that invaded Iraq in 2003. So it's a serious and frightening situation at the moment.

If efforts at diplomacy fail. Then Putin would almost certainly if he wants to invade, do that before March before the spring thaw.

In the meantime, the US is preparing massive sanctions.

Archival tape – Senator Menendez:

“What we are devising, building upon the legislation which i call the mother of all sanctions is to include a variety of elements, massive sanctions against the most significant Russian banks, cripplling their economy, meaningful in terms of consequences to the average Russian…”

JONATHAN:

And this includes cutting off Russia really from the international financial system and would be crippling for Russia's economy.

Archival tape – Senator Menendez:

“These are sanctions beyond any that we’ve ever levied before, and I think that that sends a very clear message…”

JONATHAN:

The other thing that the US and Europe are trying to do is to desperately secure extra fuel supplies because a war would potentially cut off Russian gas and oil supplies, which are much needed in Europe, particularly in the middle of winter.

And so the U.S. and Europe are working to secure supplies from countries like Qatar and Azerbaijan and even from Australia. So the effects of this crisis so far are already global.

RUBY:

Jonathan, thank you so much for your time.

JONATHAN:

Thanks.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today…

In an address to the National Press Club yesterday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a series of cash boosts in a bid to bolster the nation’s post-Covid economic recovery.

They include $666 million for NDIS providers, a $2.2 billion investment in research and universities, and an additional $209m to support aged care workers.

Morrison’s address to the Press Club was largely considered to be an un-official launch of this year’s federal election campaign.

And the New York Times has announced that it has acquired the viral word game Wordle for an undisclosed seven-figure sum. The Times’ has said the game will initially remain free to new and existing players.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See you next week.

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