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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media I’m Ruby Jones this is 7am.

With the countdown to the federal election on, both sides of politics are attempting to shore up internal support and reassure voters.

Labor is still firmly ahead in the polls, but the race is getting tighter, at least according to newspoll.

In an unprecedented development, however, the Liberal Party has begun turning on Scott Morrison.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno on the fight ahead.

It’s Friday, April 8.

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RUBY:

Paul, an election still has not been called, but it feels like both leaders are already campaigning. So what's going on exactly?

PAUL:

Well, it certainly looks and smells like an election campaign.

Archival Tape -- News Reporter:

“Showing off his hospitality skills, Mr Morrison hopped behind the bar to pour a cold beer for locals…”

PAUL:

Scott Morrison made a very campaign-like appearance on Wednesday night at a pub in Newcastle, meeting voters and pouring beers.

Archival Tape -- News Reporter:

“But not everyone was happy to see Scott Morrison last night”

Archival Tape -- Angry Old Bloke:

“You ring up your office and you do nothing! They don't even return a call!”

PAUL:

The scene in Newcastle where the PM was confronted by angry voters was very different from what the government and its supporters were hoping for.

Archival Tape -- Angry Old Bloke:

“(Scuffle, rabble) Get out of me way! Let me talk! This with what you said when you got elected last time. We've got to help all those people that worked all their lives, paid their taxes, and those who have a go will get a go. Hey, you better do something. I don't care. I'm sick of your bull!”

RUBY:

So why hasn't an election been called and if the prime minister is so keen to be out there campaigning?

PAUL:

Well, that's a very good question. We do know that he has to call it within the next two weeks because May 21 is the absolute deadline for the election. Maybe he's waiting for all this messiness to die down or go away. But there's a strong expectation here in Canberra if he doesn't call it today, he'll call it Saturday or Sunday.

RUBY:

Mm. But Paul, surely there’s something more to the prime minister’s plan than just… hoping things settle?

PAUL:

Well, while he waits to call a formal election campaign, he's been swamping the media with taxpayer funded government ads that are blatantly about getting the Liberal Party re-elected.

Archival Tape -- Government Ad:

“Australia is taking the next step. And the Australian government’s economic plan is helping…”

PAUL:

On top of that, all travel is paid for by the taxpayer until the writs are issued now. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg admitted as much on the weekend, saying on insiders he was flying off to Perth to, quote, “campaign”.

Archival Tape -- David Speers (Insiders):

“Will you campaign with the prime minister in your seat?”

Archival Tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Well, if he would like to come down, it would be very welcome and I'll be campaigning with him around the rest of the country as I'll be campaigning in the rest of the country…”

PAUL:

And that flight, of course, was paid for by us, the taxpayers.

So for the past few months, the government has essentially been using public money to run its election campaign pitch. But if the batch of public opinion polls this week is any guide, it's all been to no avail. It continues to trail very badly. The average Labor lead two party preferred in all four published polls is nine point four per cent, and Labor's convinced it's because the punters have, quote, “seen through Morrison” - he’s all announcement and not much delivery. One campaign insider told me they know he's a bullshitter.

RUBY:

Hmm. So do you think this is a sign that the Coalition’s election hopes are feeling a bit rattled, Paul?

PAUL:

Well, if it was confident its management of the economy, the pandemic, the bushfires, the floods and women's issues was so impressive, why would it have to spend $8.6 billion in one off temporary vote buying measures? Well, Morrison looks and sounds under the pump, and that's because he is. The Sydney Morning Herald front page on Tuesday carried the headline Labour hits the front. Tellingly, Morrison has lost his lead over Albanese as preferred prime minister and continues deep in negative territory on approval of performance.

You know, he's been on a steep downward slope over the past year compared to the opposition leader's steady rise. Something that's being tracked in all the published polls. And there's no surprise the relief offered in the budget won overwhelming public support. But there's a real question about whether popular petrol tax cuts and one off payments can really do anything to improve Morrison's position.

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Paul, it sounds like the budget hasn't done what the Coalition might have hoped, it hasn't really delivered the bump in popularity that they would have wanted before calling an election.

PAUL:

Well, they would have been hoping for a quick bounce; an early budget helped turnaround Morrison's fortunes in 2019, and that led to his unexpected victory. But there are significant differences between then and today, and the first is this time Morrison has lost the trust and respect of a huge swathes of the population, and he's not facing a less popular opponent than himself. Albanese is not Bill Shorten, and he hasn't put on the agenda a series of tax rearrangements worth $350 billion over a decade. That could be deceptively portrayed as a plan to tax you to death.

But Labor is bracing for the kitchen sink to be thrown at it and already is seeing a compliant media amplifying government attacks. Albanese's promise to end the crisis in aged care is a prime example. There was trite criticism after Labour frontbencher Mark Dreyfus dared to admit it may take a while longer to get 24 seven registered nurses into every nursing home. Then there was the perennial question: where's the money coming from? And this from a government that has given Australia the biggest debt burden in history. If we're going to continue in deficit, surely we should be directing the borrowing to worthwhile things. And it seems for this government the cost of giving older Australians dignity and respect as recommended in Scott Morrison's royal commission is no longer up there with vote buying, pork barrelling and rooting.

RUBY:

And Paul, for some time now, we've been hearing from colleagues of Scott Morrison, who said no nice things about him. So can you step me through the latest what's been said in the last few days?

PAUL:

Well, first of all, Ruby, it's unprecedented in my experience. So close to an election for there to be such a pile-on of strident criticism coming from within a leader’s his own party and on his side of politics.

Archival Tape -- Michael Rowlands:

“You're not just a politician, you get a vote in the election. Would you vote for Scott Morrison?”

Archival Tape -- Catherine Cusack:

“Well, I won't be voting for his government in this election…”

PAUL:

\The latest critic was New South Wales Upper House Liberal MP Catherine Cusack. The trigger for her disgust was the prime minister's overt politicisation of flood relief in the northern rivers.

Archival Tape -- Catherine Cusack:

“‘My way, or the highway’ is one thing to say to your own members in the Liberal Party, but for that attitude to spill out and impact funding decisions, public funding decisions that flood victims are depending on is outrageous…”

PAUL:

And in a rare interview with Leigh Sales on 7.30...

Archival Tape -- Leigh Sales (7:30):

“Prime Minister, welcome back.”

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“Thanks, Leigh. Great to be here…”

PAUL:

…Morrison was confronted with this outbreak of what you might call friendly fire.

Archival Tape -- Leigh Sales (7:30):

“In the past week, we've seen two MPs from in your own party, from different factions come out with the most strident criticisms of you. The first was Concetta Fierrevanti Wells, and today it's a state New South Wales MP Catherine Cusack. Ms Cusack, said she would not vote for you in the election, even though she's a lifelong member of the party. Why would somebody like that just turn on you if there was no basis?”

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“Oh well, look, Catherine, I've known for a long time…”

PAUL:

The prime minister, incredibly, denied he was a factional player.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“It's a tough job and it's been a tough time and people have had a tough time of it over the last three and a half years-...”

Archival Tape -- Leigh Sales (7:30):

“People in your own party? Because they're the ones that seem to be leading the criticism…”

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“Ah well Leigh they're always people who are disappointed with outcomes that they wanted that they didn't get, and they'll have an axe to grind and saying that it's pretty normal in politics, particularly when you're going into an election…”

PAUL:

But almost all of this ugly fight is down to his role in factional power plays within the Liberals in his home state of New South Wales. In the meantime, we now have very frank and damaging character assessments from Senator Fierravanti-Wells, Elizabeth Cusack, Gladys Berejiklian, Barnaby Joyce, Malcolm Turnbull and Michael Towke.

RUBY:

And Paul, you say that you've never seen something like this before a sitting prime minister being pulled apart by his own party on the eve of an election. So what does it mean for the next few weeks once the campaign starts in earnest?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, it means the prime minister will continue to struggle for clear air instead of putting Anthony Albanese on the defensive, it will be Scott Morrison with his back to the wall.

And it gives Albanese the initiative to fight the campaign on his terms rather than Morrison's.

It's a complete turnaround from the 2019 campaign.

RUBY:

Paul, thank you so much for your time.

PAUL:

No, thank you, Ruby. Bye.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today,

Evacuation orders are in place for areas across the NSW coast and in Sydney as the state continues to experience record breaking rainfall.

The Bureau of Meteorology says up to 300mm of rain is forecast in NSW over the coming days and that Sydney has already surpassed its average annual rain total for this year.

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And, US officials say Russian troops have continued to pull back from areas around Ukraine's capital and are regrouping to focus on the east of the country.

A senior defence official said that Russia had completed its withdrawal from around
Kyiv (kuh-yiv) and that these troops were expected to be redeployed elsewhere in Ukraine.

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The remaining refugee and asylum seekers detained at the Park Hotel in Melbourne have been released. Eight men, detained by the Australian government for up to nine years, were released from the makeshift detention centre on Thursday.

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7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper. It’s produced by Elle Marsh, Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Anu Hasbold and Alex Gow.

Our senior producer is Ruby Schwartz and our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Brian Campeau mixes the show. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Our new editor is Scott Mitchell - Welcome!

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am, see you next week.