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ANGE:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ange McCormack, this is 7am.

Labor won the Dunkley by-election last weekend, but the Liberal Party spent most of the week claiming the result was a win for them as well.

But even while the party was claiming a groundswell in support, opposition leader Peter Dutton disappeared from public view and when he emerged, he announced a reshuffle of his front bench.

So what was going on inside the Liberal Party? What message did voters send them? And is the party learning the right lessons?

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno, on the divisions appearing inside the Liberal Party.

It’s Friday, March 8.

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ANGE:

Paul, this week, both the Liberal Party and the Labor Party tried to claim last weekend's result in the Dunkley byelection as a positive for them. To begin with, who was telling the truth?

PAUL:

Well, let's look at what was said and who was put out there to say it. It was the Liberals deputy leader, Sussan Ley, who was left to carry the can. The party's leader, Peter Dutton, was nowhere to be seen.

Unavoidably, we can only conclude that knew he was the biggest loser of the night. Well, Ley fronted and her performance was remarkable.

Audio Excerpt - Sussan Ley:

“Fellow liberals! Today, the people of Dunkley have sent Anthony Albanese a really strong message and it's not happy birthday. It’s not happy birthday, it's do something about the cost of living crisis. That's the message.”

PAUL:

And to top it off, she said this is a terrible result for the Prime Minister.

Audio Excerpt - Sussan Ley:

“Like I said, Mr. Prime Minister, happy birthday. We're just getting started. We are coming after you.”

PAUL:

Well, on the Labor side, it was Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles fronting.

Audio Excerpt - Richard Marles:

“You know, we feel very confident in our prime minister such that he's been here as often as he could be during the course of this campaign. And that obviously stands in stark contrast to the Liberal Party who’ve essentially been trying to hide the leader of the opposition party who wasn't here at all.”

PAUL:

Well, Marles assured people, Labor knows more needs to be done on the cost of living front, but Labor insiders tell me they take the win in Dunkley as an endorsement of Albanese's broken promise to rejig the stage three tax cuts. They believe it shows voters trust Albanese to do the right thing by them. And for that they can point to the slight improvement in their primary vote, just over 40%, ahead of the liberals primary vote on 39%.

Audio Excerpt - David Speers (ABC):

“For the Government, it's vindication of the Prime Minister's gamble to break a promise and offer everyone a tax cut. For the opposition, it's better than recent results in Victoria, but Peter Dutton’s strategy is under question.”

PAUL:

The liberals needed a two party swing of over 6.3% for them to secure the seat, but got just 3.6%, and that's historically close to the average swing any opposition gets in a by-election. And it's a loss at the height of the cost of living crisis, and a failure of the campaign to convince voters Albanese needed a big kick in the pants. The blunt assessment of former Liberal staffer and longtime political columnist, Niki Savva captures the reality I think.

Audio Excerpt - David Speers (ABC):

“Let’s start with what it all means. Niki, what's your read on what this sort of result last night in Dunkley means?”

Audio Excerpt - Niki Savva (ABC):

“Well, first of all, I think there has to be an acceptance by the Liberal Party that they actually lost the seat. A loss is a loss is a loss.”

PAUL:

She said that trying to turn Saturday's defeat as some kind of victory shows a level of denial and delusion that doesn't serve them well. The byelection confirmed Labor's research, that Dutton was very unpopular in Victoria, and the fact that he didn't turn up the booths on election day adds weight to this. It's virtually an admission that Dutton himself knew his presence could well turn voters off, you know, scare the horses. And the fact that he hid from the media for the next three days from Saturday was because he didn't want to stir the issue by facing questions about the result and his role in it.

ANGE:

Right, so if the Liberals didn't actually do very well in this byelection Paul, what can we learn from that? Like, what message had they been trying to send to voters on the ground in Dunkley, and how did it go down?

PAUL:

Well Ange, let's look at the broader context here. In the final week before Election Day, the libs downgraded cost of living, made it a second-order issue, and went for immigration and the menace of the 149 released immigration detainees into the community which they invariably dubbed as rapists, murderers and criminals.

Audio Excerpt - Niki Savva (ABC):

“I give the call to the manager of Opposition business.”

Audio Excerpt - Paul Fletcher:

“My question is to the Minister for Immigration, Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs. Out of the 149 hardcore criminals released by the Albanese government, how many rapists and sex offenders, apart from the one who's just been charged with sexual assault, remain at large in the community?”

PAUL:

On Thursday, the coalition seized on a report one of the detainees was arrested for sexually assaulting a woman in Melbourne while they went for broke, demanding Albanese sack Immigration Minister Andrew Giles. Now, while Parliament was sitting on that very day, Victoria Police admitted their mistake. They got the wrong man and the police apologised. Well, the liberals certainly didn't.

In fact, Sussan Ley posted a tweet playing to racist fears voters might have. She said if voters had a problem with Victorian women being assaulted by foreign criminals, vote against Labor. The next day, Labor Education Minister Jason Clare confronted Lee during a live appearance on Sunrise, telling Ley she should delete the tweet.

Audio Excerpt - Jason Clare:

“Susan, you must wake up in the morning and look in the mirror and think after 25 years of being a member of Parliament, is this what I've become? That I'm reduced to putting out tweets like this?”

PAUL:

But Sussan Ley was defiant.

Audio Excerpt - News Host:

“So we're talking about the man arrested who was let go…”

Audio Excerpt - Sussan Ley:

“Jason, your home affairs minister, your home affairs, excuse me Nat.”

Audio Excerpt - News Host:

“Yes, Susan?”

Audio Excerpt - Sussan Ley:

“Yeah, I want to make this point that Jason's Home Affairs Minister, Claire O'Neill, said every one of those individuals who has been let out, those hardened criminals should be locked up.”

PAUL:

And the tweets are still up. Maybe Lee and Dutton were encouraged by the very expensive campaign run by the right wing propaganda outfit, Advance, in Dunkley. Advance spent more than $250,000 on billboards and ads warning against the threat of illegal migrants, asking how many of the released detainees were in Dunkley and fanning the anti-asylum seeker and immigration sentiments. It clearly didn't work. And one lesson for Advance and the Liberal Party is that winning an election is a very different challenge to disrupting a referendum, something they successfully did last year.

ANGE:

And Paul, in the wash up of the Dunkley result, the Coalition is trying to own it and frame it as a win. But how else have they responded to this, which is actually a loss?

PAUL:

Well, Peter Dutton emerged on Tuesday to unveil the framework for his energy plan, which is basically to commit to large scale and small modular nuclear reactors which he somehow claims will produce cheaper electricity sometime in the 2040s. He also had a mini reshuffle of his shadow cabinet.

Audio Excerpt - Peter Dutton:

“I'm announcing today that we'll have some changes to our shadow ministry. They're important changes because they reflect the skill and the depth of capacity and capability that we have within our ranks.”

PAUL:

But this is something he needed to do to fill two vacancies. One assistant treasurer was created when Stuart Robert quit almost a year ago, and Ange reshuffles can cause resentments and even stir rumblings. So this delay is a pointer to Peter Dutton's insecurities. I would say being gun shy on a reshuffle suggests insecurity on his part as leader.

But in the end, he kept the changes tight and rewarded his closest factional allies with the biggest prizes. And despite creating something like 70 new titles for the shadow ministry, many for portfolios the government doesn't have, the reshuffle certainly isn't pointing to a bold new direction that would broaden the party's appeal. Certainly in the seats that were lost in the last election.

But we can't avoid concluding that the loss creates a cloud over Dutton's viability to continue leading the party. Even the liberals media cheer squad like Ben Fordham on Radio 2GB and members of his own parliamentary party are starting to question Peter Dutton and Sussan Ley’s strategy, with calls for more positive policies and approaches.

ANGE:

After the break – the Liberal politicians who seem to be pushing for a different approach to politics.

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ANGE:

Paul, there's some talk within the Liberal Party about Peter Dutton as leader and about the Liberals strategy, who's raising concerns and what are they saying?

PAUL:

Well, for one, Liberal backbencher Keith Wolahan is calling for his party to come up with something other than relentless negativity. It should be remembered Wolahan holds one of the most marginal seats in Melbourne. He won Menzies by the skin of his teeth. He believes the party needs more broad ranging policies to particularly address the cost of living, but also the crisis in housing and rental affordability. Also, we saw a rather encouraging departure from brutal partisan politics when another first term liberal, Zoe McKenzie, while she holds the neighbouring seat of Flinders on the Mornington Peninsula. Well, after Saturday's result, she posted a picture of herself with the winning Labor candidate Jodie Belyea.

Audio Excerpt - Chris Kenny (Sky News):

“She was very critical of Labor of course, as well, campaigning strongly. Yet on Saturday night she put out this tweet showing a photo of herself with the winning Labor candidate she knows very well. The neighbouring electorates.”

PAUL:

And she captioned the post, a good friend to women across the Mornington Peninsula and she looked forward to working with her. Obviously a stark contrast to what we've been getting from Dutton and Ley. However, apart from Keith Wolahan who defended his colleague, others were outraged.

Audio Excerpt - Chris Kenny (Sky News):

“Apparently, Keith, a lot of your Liberal colleagues in Victoria are in meltdown over this. I mean, this is what the public square should be like! Shouldn't it? You have a good political battle, and when the other side wins, you say congratulations.”

Audio Excerpt - Keith Wolahan :

“100 percent.”

PAUL:

The Australian ran a front page story with the headline unforgivable, and it quoted a senior Liberal source saying they were floored by the picture and claimed there was palpable anger in the ranks because we are at war with Labor.

ANGE:

So why are views like Zoe McKenzie's and Keith Wolahan’s on the sidelines of the Liberal Party right now, what is it that's stopping their ideas from cutting through?

PAUL:

Yes, well that's a question that's still being addressed. And we have to remember the Liberal Party lost 19 seats in the last election, ten of them constituted the party's metropolitan heartland. You know, the sort of seats held by post-war liberal prime ministers. One veteran Liberal put it to me, you can't lose those sorts of seats and the calibre of candidate they attract and not be left with a very shallow talent pool. Indeed, the Parliamentary Liberal Party would look a very different beast if the highly impressive women independents who snatched these electorates were still in the ranks. But the Liberal Party isn't finding it easy to promote these sorts of candidates, even when they put up their hands, especially women. And just this week, we saw in the preselection for Scott Morrison's former seat of cook, It was won by a bloke, Simon Kennedy. He's a conservative who worked as a management consultant and he lives outside that electorate. He defeated a moderate man as well as a highly credentialed woman. She came in a distant third.

ANGE:

I guess it sounds like the liberals will be sticking to the same kinds of approaches that they used in Dunkley. So if we think of that byelection as a kind of preview of the next federal election, and if both parties repeat the same strategies that they used there, what kind of election will we have?

PAUL:

Well, Sussan Ley claimed a swing around 3.6% would see the liberals return to government. Well, she's wrong on that because she's ignoring the number of independents in their way. But a closer analysis of the booths suggests both the major parties will struggle to win a majority at the next election. On those results, Labor would most likely form a minority government.

PAUL:

However, I have to say it's folly to extrapolate by-election results as a predictor of what might happen in 12 to 18 months time. But we can say Dunkley didn't give the liberals the momentum they were desperately looking for, and conversely Labor's better start to the year was not stopped in its tracks. There are always lessons to be learned but it will be events, unforeseen and unplanned for, and how the parties respond to them that will determine the next election.

ANGE:

Paul, thanks so much for your time today.

PAUL:

Thank you Ange. Bye.

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ANGE:

Also in the news today…

The minister for women, Katy Gallagher, has launched Australia’s first national strategy to achieve gender equality in time for today’s international women’s day.

Yesterday, the minister announced businesses with over 500 employees will have to meet a series of new gender equality targets in order to win government contracts.

And the US State Department claims it will continue to push for a ceasefire agreement in the war in Gaza, after reports earlier this week suggested negotiations over a 40-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas had broken down.

The holy month of Ramadan begins early next week, and it’s believed an agreement must be reached before then if a ceasefire is to take place.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Zoltan Fecso and Cheyne Anderson.

Our senior producer is Chris Dengate. Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Our editor is Scott Mitchell. Sarah McVeigh is our head of audio.

Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing by Andy Elston, Travis Evans, and Atticus Bastow.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ange McCormack. This is 7am. See you next week.

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