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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

When the New South Wales National Party threatened to break up the state’s coalition over the issue of koalas, many were mystified.

But behind the political fireworks lies a story about a party being squeezed from both the right and the left, and running out places to turn.

Today, national correspondent for The Saturday Paper, Mike Seccombe, on the Nationals fight for survival.

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RUBY:

Mike, a couple of weeks ago, the New South Wales government seemed to implode over, of all things, koalas. So what happened there and what has the fallout been?

MIKE:

Well, Koala Gate, as it's been imaginatively called, began with the simple fact that new information appeared showing that koalas were in danger of extinction in New South Wales. So the consequence of that was that some changes were made to the state's planning policy to offer greater protection to their habitat.

And listed a variety of things, you know, it increased the number of tree species that can be used to identify koala habitat from 10 to 123. It imposed some not very onerous restrictions on land clearing and development. And those changes came into effect on March one, with no objection at that stage from the Nationals or their leader, John Barilaro. The Nats were onboard with it at that point.

But then in May, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, gave notice of an intention to bring forward a bill to wind back some aspects of those changes. That move just kindled a fire under the Nationals.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Man #1:

“Deputy premier John Barilaro and his National party colleagues declare mutiny...”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Man #2:

“There is said to be some significant discontent within Nationals ranks with the way this issue has been handled.”

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Woman #1:

“This is a capitulation that no one has expected...”

MIKE:

And from there, things escalated very fast.

Archival Tape -- John Barilaro:

“The National Party will not attend joint party.”

MIKE:

The Liberals offered some negotiation, but the Nats, instead of negotiating quietly behind the scenes, instead just went to the nuclear option and threatened to bust the coalition.

Archival Tape -- John Barilaro:

“We will no longer be attending any parliamentary leadership meetings. That is at the heart of what we're saying.”

MIKE:

You know, first a couple of individual members did it, said that they would go to the crossbench. And then the party leader, John Barilaro, threatened to take the whole bunch of them out to the crossbench.

Archival Tape -- John Barilaro:

“We are also in agreement from the party room that we will be abstaining from supporting any government legislation or bills.”

MIKE:

So he made that threat. And then within one day, the Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, called his bluff...

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Man #3:

“...The premier issuing an ultimatum late this afternoon saying he and his colleagues have until 9 am tomorrow to indicate to me whether they wish to remain in my cabinet...”

MIKE:

... and they didn't do it.

So it was a humiliating backdown for Barilaro. Barilaro subsequently announced he was taking four weeks off on mental health leave.

So, you know, it was a shambles for the Nationals party. And it shows, frankly, just how rattled they are by the inroads that the shooters, the SFF for short, are making into their heartland. So this was the precipitating factor. But the reality is, this crisis in the Nationals has been brewing for a long time and it's entirely likely the crisis will continue, whatever happens in relation to koala habitat or Barilaro’s leadership.

And it will affect the federal party as well as the New South Wales party. And that problem is that the ground is moving under the minor coalition partner.

RUBY:

How exactly is the ground moving under the Nationals, Mike? What are they so worried about that's led them to take these fairly extreme actions, like threatening to blow up the coalition?

MIKE:

Well, I mean, it goes to the essence of politics, you know, which is about winning seats. And the Nationals are not winning seats. They're losing them. They're losing them to the SFF in the state's west and they've now lost three.

The first to go was the seat of Orange, which fell at a by-election in November 2016. And you know, that one was a unique circumstance, largely due to the Liberal Party leadership's failure to appreciate the attachment of regional voters to greyhound racing.

Further to the west, the biggest seat in New South Wales, which is Barwon, which had been held by the Nationals and their predecessors, the country party, for almost 70 years. That fell at last year's election. The SFF took it easily.

The second biggest electorate, Murray, which is just to the south of Barwon, that also fell to the SFF.

So, you know, collectively, these three seats stretch all the way from the Queensland border in the north to the Victorian border in the south from the South Australian border halfway across New South Wales. It's a big, big area of national party heartland that has gone.

RUBY:

So you can see why that would be cause for concern for the Nationals. But it isn't just the shooters who are taking seats from the Nationals, right? There are others as well?

MIKE:

Oh, that's right. They are under assault from all sides. Along the northern New South Wales coast, there's a string of Nationals parties seats as well. And if we look at them, we take Ballina, for example, on the north coast. There's been a big influx of sea changes and tree changes up there in recent years, who are not traditional National Party voters.

In the 2015 election, the party's primary vote plunged. It crashed and they lost the seat to the Greens. And in last year's election, the Greens increased their majority. So it's now looking pretty secure for them

Just to the west of Ballina, there's another seat. Lismore, also undergoing big demographic shift. And there also the Nationals vote crashed almost 20 points between 2011 and 2015. They just managed to hold on in the 2015 election. But then at last year's election, their support fell further and Labor picked up the seat. In that part of the state they're under assault from the left.

And it's a similar story in a number of other seats across the region. You know, this is a very ominous trend. These voters in that part of the state are moving more and more to progressive parties.

Now, at this point, I should point out that there was one seat that bucked the trend through all of this, and that's Port Macquarie, which is on the mid-north coast. And the local member there is a woman by the name of Leslie Williams.

Archival Tape -- Leslie Williams:

“Every decision I make, every action I take is about the people at the Port Macquarie electorate.”

MIKE:

And she actually increased her vote over the past three elections. Unfortunately for the Nationals, though, she spectacularly flamed out and quit the party after Koala Gate and joined the Liberals

Archival Tape -- Leslie Williams:

“The last week cemented for me that this was not the party that I had joined almost fifteen years ago. So much has changed.”

MIKE:

And she went out, you know, all guns blazing. She blasted her former party, and Barilaro in particular, for trying to, quote, hold a premier and the government to ransom during this Covid-19 pandemic.

Archival Tape -- Leslie Williams:

“I just thought it was really a ridiculous move to put that great government into jeopardy, which is what we saw in the last couple of weeks.”

MIKE:

They're losing seats. They're losing them to the shooters. They're losing to the Greens, Labor, and now they've lost one to the Liberals. So they're losing them literally left, right and center.

RUBY:

We'll be back after this.

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RUBY:

Mike, the Nationals are bleeding votes to both the right and the left, which is putting them under considerable political pressure. We know the issue of koala habitat was a flashpoint for their most recent crisis. But what are the major policy issues that are underpinning this fall in popularity that they're experiencing?

MIKE:

Well, there's a few. I spoke with Helen Dalton, who's a farmer and a teacher and a self professed environmentalist, who's now the shooter's member for Murray. And in 2019, she ran hard for the SFF on two major issues.

Archival Tape --Helen Dalton:

“Well I was voted in, really, on the back of water management...”

MIKE:

One was water management, and the other was health, in particular, and provision of services in general.

On the waterfront, farmers in her electorate, it's down the bottom of the Murray-Darling Basin system, and they're absolutely furious about the way the Nationals, state and federal nationals, have corrupted the allocation of water resources.

And Dalton says the party is in the pocket of the big irrigators up in the northern part of the Murray-Darling Basin who are taking too much water. And that's parched the south. It's all being sucked out by these big cotton growers, basically, and her people can't get enough water allocation.

Archival Tape -- Helen Dalton:

“The water issue is one where they have just dropped completely dropped the ball on that...”

MIKE:

On the health issue. She points out that the suicide rate in the Murrumbidgee region is the highest in New South Wales.

Archival Tape -- Helen Dalton:

“Our declining health services, it's a really big issue for us. And of course, that's on the back of very, very high suicide rates that we have in the Murrumbidgee region...”

MIKE:

In her view, and I might add, in the view of a lot of other constituents, both state and federally, the Nationals are now agents of multinational agribusiness, fossil fuel companies. In the Northeast, I think, there's concern about their links with property developers, not the traditional National Party base.

Archival Tape -- Helen Dalton:

“My electorate was in the hands of the National Party for 35 years and they were almost getting an increased majority every time that we went to an election. And absolutely delivering nothing. And I just thought no, I’ve had enough of this! Absolute rot.”

RUBY:

Right. And is that happening? Have the Nationals sided with big business over farmers on any specific issues?

MIKE:

Well, Dalton pointed me to an interview that the federal Nationals leader, Michael McCormack, did on on the Ten Networks, The Project, last year where the co-host, Waleed Aly, asked Michael McCormack when the party had sided with farmers over miners

Archival Tape -- Waleed Aly:

“Can you point me to a big policy area where that balance has been struck in favor of farmers rather than miners?

Archival Tape -- Michael McCormack:

“Well, not straight off the top of my head, but I mean, you know, you look at, well...”

MIKE:

So that's pretty damning. And that was noticed by a lot of people in the bush, I think.

And you can see the consequence of that in these seats that keep falling, but also in some remarkable alliances that we've been noticing in the parliament between what you might think of us as traditional enemies, you know, like the Shooters and the Greens.

The shooters have found common cause with the progressive side of politics on a couple of these issues, you know, on water, where they're looking after the interests of farmers and the Greens are concerned about the environment. But that coincides

And, you know, also on gas and mining for similar reasons.

RUBY:

Right, and I suppose all of this goes to show that so-called Koala Gate was really just the latest issue where the Nationals were trying to claw back some of their base. And once that blew up for them, the party’s New South Wales leader, John Barilaro, he took mental health leave. So, can you tell me a little bit more about him, and his role in all of this?

MIKE:

John Barilaro has a long history of courting controversy, and he's widely seen as a stunt merchant. You know, when you're the junior coalition partner, let's be honest, it's hard to get noticed.

So to cite a couple, you know, back in December 2017, Barilaro grabbed some headlines by calling for Malcolm Turnbull to resign from the leadership as his, quote, Christmas gift to Australians

Archival Tape -- John Barilaro:

“My view is that Turnbull should give Australians a Christmas and go before Christmas...”

MIKE:

During last year's black summer bushfires, Barilaro railed against those who suggested that climate change might have something to do with it. And that included, I might add, his Liberal Party colleague and environment minister, Matt Keen.

Archival Tape -- John Barilaro:

“I’m not gonna allow other ministers to push forward green ideology that attacks my base, attacks my communities and attacks the regions...”

MIKE:

And then, of course, the most egregious example of all of his divisiveness came in May this year when the Labor member for the federal seat of Eden Monaro, Mike Kelly, announced he was quitting politics.

And Barilaro and a Liberal Party state member, Andrew Constance, both announced that they intended to run in the ensuing by-election, a very ugly fight developed.

Archival Tape -- John Barilaro:

“Sometimes in this game, you let ego get in the way of good decisions, and I’ve got to make the best decisions for me, my family...”

Archival Tape -- Andrew Constance:

“And yesterday, he chose not to run, so on that basis I am putting myself forward for liberal party preselection and nomination.”

MIKE:

And in the end, both of them were damaged and pulled out.

And then subsequent to that, Barilaro was quoted using obscenities to describe Constance. And worse than that, even, a series of text messages came to light from Barilaro to Michael McCormack, the federal leader, just laying into him.

And to quote them; “Your lack of public enthusiasm or support for my candidacy went a long way to my final decision”, he said to McCormac. “To feel threatened by me clearly shows that you have failed your team and failed as leader. You will never be acknowledged by me as our leader.”

RUBY:

Mike, all of this, the infighting, the tight political bind that the nationals are being pinned into, their alliances with big business and the combative style of Barilaro. What does it all mean for their future?

MIKE:

Well, the first thing to note is that the resignations just keep piling up. I mean, Troy Grant, Barilaro’s predecessor, he privately blames Barilaro for white ending his leadership and driving him out. The former deputy leader, Niall Blair, also fell out with Barilaro and has left politics and left the party.

Leslie Williams, who we mentioned, who's quit to join the liberals, was one of their few success stories at a state level. Last week, Jess Price-Purnell, a former member of the executive at the Young Nationals, chair of the party's New South Wales Women's Council, She pulled the pin

And the thing is, Price-Purnell, young, intelligent woman. She was pro-marriage equality. She believes there's such a thing as climate change. She's the sort of person who one might argue the Nationals really need. And she's gone.

So, you know, the Nats are in diabolical strife. They're losing votes. They're losing seats. They're losing members. And the sort of people they're losing are very much the kind of people that they need if they want the party to regenerate. So if they don't figure out what they actually stand for, then there's a real risk that they'll just become politically irrelevant and others will fill the void. And, you know, ultimately, I know it's been predicted before for the Nationals, but it looks more serious this time. You know, electoral oblivion.

RUBY:

Mike, thanks so much for talking to me today.

MIKE:

Thank you for having me.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today;

The Prime Minister has said health officials are considering allowing people entering Australia from some countries to quarantine at home.

Scott Morrison listed people coming from Japan, and South Korea, as well as countries in the Pacific, as those that could potentially avoid hotel quarantine.

And Victoria recorded ten new coronavirus cases and seven deaths yesterday.

Meanwhile NSW has now gone four days without a local case, though has recorded two cases in hotel quarantine.

The national Covid-19 death toll is now at 882.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am, see you tomorrow.

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