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DANIEL:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Daniel James, this is 7am.

The war in the Middle East is dominating Australian politics.

Peter Dutton has spent the week going hard against the Prime Minister, saying he disrespected the Jewish community when he called for de-escalation and a ceasefire in his condolence motion on October 7.

But there are signs that Dutton’s attacks aren’t landing that he’s become too focused on the Middle East conflict at the expense of pressing issues closer to home.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno on the indirect ways the Middle East conflict could shape life here in Australia, and the outcome of the election.

It’s Friday, October 11.

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DANIEL:

Paul, thanks for joining us. I want to start with the condolence motion in parliament at the start of the week to mark the one year anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel. Can you tell me what the motion said?

PAUL:

Hi, Daniel. Well, the motion had 15 statements.

Audio Excerpt - The Speaker:

“I give the call to the Prime Minister.”

Audio Excerpt - Anthony Albanese:

“Thank you very much, Mr. Speaker. I move that the House of Representatives, A) Reiterate its unequivocal condemnation of Hamas terror attacks on Israel…”

PAUL:

The first four condemned unequivocally the Hamas massacre, the taking of hostages and the brutal attacks on hundreds of other innocent Israelis on that day. It called for the immediate release of the hostages. It condemned anti-Semitism and stood with Jewish Australians who have been affected by it. But it then went on to call for a ceasefire and regional de-escalation.

Audio Excerpt - Anthony Albanese:

“Stresses the need to break the cycle of violence and supports international efforts to de-escalate for a ceasefire in Gaza and in Lebanon, and for lasting peace and security for Israeli, Palestinian, Lebanese and all people in the region.”

PAUL:

The motion went broader, recognising that there are many others in Australia deeply distressed by the conflict beyond October 7th. And it warned the undermining of social cohesion risks Australia's domestic security.

And the Prime Minister went on, quote: “Every civilian life matters. Every Palestinian, every Lebanese, every single innocent life.”

Audio Excerpt - Anthony Albanese:

“That is the truth. We must hold on to the truth of a shared humanity and hope that peace is possible in the belief that it belongs to all people. To quote the great Dr. Martin Luther King. Darkness cannot drive out darkness. Only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate. Only love can do that. I commend the resolution to the house.”

Audio Excerpt - Members in the chamber:

“Hear, hear!”

PAUL:

The motion passed the House with 85 votes. There were 54 against: the entire Liberal and National parties and three from the crossbench. The four Greens abstained.

Of course, all the action wasn't only in the House of Representatives. The motion then went to the Senate and it was there that there was quite a kerfuffle. Lidia Thorpe, now an independent, she marched into the chamber screaming out.

Audio Excerpt - Lidia Thorpe:

“Shame on you!”

Audio Excerpt - Penny Wong:

“The reason we are advocating…”

Audio Excerpt - Lidia Thorpe:

“You're complicit in genocide!”

Audio Excerpt - The President:

“Senator Thorpe, please resume your seat.”

PAUL:

And the Greens senators held up placards in defiance of the standing orders and angering the president of the Senate demanding sanctions now on Israel.

Audio Excerpt - The President:

“Senator Thorpe, it is inappropriate to come in here.”

Audio Excerpt - [Lidia Thorpe interjecting]

Audio Excerpt - The President:

“Senator Thorpe, come to order.”

Audio Excerpt - Lidia Thorpe:

“You're being inappropriate because your government is complicit in genocide!”

Audio Excerpt - The President:

“Senator Thorpe, take your seat or leave the chamber.”

PAUL:

The issue in the Senate is still unresolved.

DANIEL:

So the Coalition and the Greens didn't support the motion. What did they say?

PAUL:

Well, the Greens leader Adam Bandt was critical of Albanese for not allowing amendments that would not give sympathy but condemnation of Israel, hardly fitting in with the purpose of the day. But Bandt was uncompromising in his condemnation of the ongoing slaughter, as he calls it, and critical that war crimes were not condemned. Well, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was at the polar opposite end of the argument.

Audio Excerpt - Peter Dutton:

“This motion was supposed to be about October 7th, about the loss of human life in the circumstances that we've just graphically outlined and that people across the world now come to understand. I propose to the Prime Minister a motion that…”

PAUL:

Dutton refused to back the motion. He said the original intent of the motion was to mark the loss of 1200 Israeli lives.

Audio Excerpt - Peter Dutton:

“This government has sought to walk both sides of the street in relation to what has been a very divisive debate for our country. It's what in part has given rise to the anti-Semitism that we've seen in university campuses, but across society more generally.”

PAUL:

He said. The Prime Minister, unlike his Labor predecessors, didn't have the decency to respect the Jewish community.

Audio Excerpt - Peter Dutton:

“And for that Prime Minister he should stand condemned. We have put to this Prime Minister a more than reasonable position…”

PAUL:

Dutton's position since October 7th last year has given Israel unquestioning support. He rarely acknowledges the loss of Palestinian life and supports ongoing war. Until Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are routed. But it should be remembered that Albanese bent over backwards trying to get bipartisanship on this motion. There were meetings on the weekend and even on Tuesday morning the Prime Minister met the Opposition Leader twice trying to convince him to come on board. And Dutton refused point blank. He tried to blame Albanese for this failure in bipartisanship. Well, I personally don't think that that passes the pub test.

Well, the independent member for Wentworth, Allegra Spender, she also didn't back the motion. Hers is the seat with the largest Jewish community in the country.

Audio Excerpt - Allegra Spender:

“I wish that we as a parliament could come together and lead unitedly. I would have supported this motion had it been separated into two motions. One on October 7th, one recognising the pain that the last year had brought.”

PAUL:

She criticised her colleagues in Parliament for not being able to find common ground.

Audio Excerpt - Allegra Spender:

“And I am once again disappointed by this House and the political politicisation of this issue because the country is looking for us to come together. The country is hurting. There are people who have lost friends and families across our communities. They are hurting and we are not helping these people.”

DANIEL:

This is an obviously tricky issue for the government. How would you describe the political calculations they are making when they're talking about this war?

PAUL:

Well Daniel, of course, no matter what the politicians want you to believe, there are always political calculations. Dutton accuses Albanese of selling out Israel to appease Arab and Muslim voters, particularly in western Sydney, with two and possibly three seats in play. But it's also clear that Dutton has his eye on three seats as well, with significant Jewish numbers, two held by teal independents and one held by Labor on a knife edge in Melbourne.

And the issue is particularly fraught for Labor internally. We were reminded of that on Wednesday when Senator Fatima Payman, who quit Labor earlier this year over its refusal to immediately recognise Palestine, announced she's forming a new party called Australia's Voice. And it's clearly aimed at Labor voters. There's growing sentiment in the left of the Labor Party for the Palestinian cause, but even there, no one disputes Israel has a right to defend itself. And in saying that they realise, as Cabinet Minister Mark Butler, who by the way, is from the left of the party, as he said on Monday, that right clearly involves the use of force. The line the government formally draws is that force must be used within the norms of international law.

DANIEL:

And Paul as politicians fought over words elsewhere in Parliament. Some Palestinian Australians fronted the media. What happened at that press conference?

PAUL:

Well, it's up to the Greens and Lidia Thorpe, the former Green and Fatima Payman. Well, they turned up with Palestinians at Parliament House to say, look, this isn't only about words, it's about real people.

Audio Excerpt - Mehreen Faruqi:

“This is a press conference where you’ve just heard for the last 45 minutes the impact of the genocidal state of Israel, and what they’ve done. And you’re asking questions about a motion, you’re asking questions about Israel having a right to self defence?”

PAUL:

Trying to give a dimension to the view they hold, that the whole conflict is not only regrettable but reprehensible and is a human catastrophe.

DANIEL:

There were massive protests last weekend and there have been massive protests throughout the last 12 months. Thousands of people gathering to show their support for Palestine and thousands also gathering to commemorate the attacks on Israel a year ago. What does this tell you about how big an issue this is in the minds of voters right now?

PAUL:

Well, research by the Labor Party finds that while a majority of Australians, probably around 70 to 75% are aware of the conflict, they see it as over there and regrettable, but it doesn't really concern us. So it doesn't have a broad resonance in that sense. Labor thinks that around 10% of Australians are particularly involved and exercised and these would be people on the Jewish and Palestinian side with relatives in Gaza or in Israel.

Now, an essential poll this week found about 56% of Australians are satisfied with Albanese's response to the Israel-Gaza war. And a separate Resolve poll in The Age found 51% of Australians don't want the Government to take sides in the conflict. They certainly don't want any form of military involvement either sending military equipment 67% or against that or sending military support. 72% were against that. So with that in mind, Dutton could be misfiring. Dutton is doing what he accused Albanese of doing in the voice referendum, focusing on one issue at the expense of bigger issues for voters struggling to make ends meet.

DANIEL:

After the break – how the conflict might shape politics here, in a surprising and indirect way.

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DANIEL:

Paul, The conflict in the Middle East is dominating politics here at home, despite some evidence that for most voters, it isn't top of mind. We're gearing up for an election some time early in the next year. So can you tell me about how this issue is likely to impact the result?

PAUL:

Well, I guess that remains to be seen. Besides Wentworth in Sydney, there are two seats in Melbourne potentially in play. Kooyong and McNamara. Kooyong took in a big swag of Jewish votes from the abolished seat of Higgins, well independent Monique Ryan will hope her chances are protected by Dutton's failure to develop serious policies on climate change and energy. That certainly played a part in Ryan winning Kooyong in the first place. In McNamara, Labor incumbent Josh Burns, himself Jewish, has told worried branch members he's confident he can hold on with many Jewish Greens in the seat now rejecting the party.

But this week, Joe Biden let slip that Israel could target Iran's oil production and export facilities.

Audio Excerpt - Journalist:

“I saw your comments yesterday with regard to strikes on Iranian oil facilities. What did you mean by them, given some of the reactions we're seeing in the market?”

Audio Excerpt - Joe Biden:

“Look, the Israelis have not concluded, however, what they're going to do in terms of a strike that's under discussion.”

PAUL:

Biden is so worried he's trying to talk Netanyahu out of bombing Iran's oil facilities. Well, you'd have to say the Israeli Prime Minister hasn't shown much of any inclination to take notice of the US president in the past 12 months and is unlikely to begin heeding him now, even though it's been widely reported that on Thursday morning there was an intense phone discussion between Netanyahu and Biden.

Audio Excerpt - News Host (NBC):

“Until the phone call today, US officials tell NBC news that Israeli leaders had not briefed the US on the specific details on their retaliatory response against Iran, even as the Pentagon discussed the possibility of supporting any potential military action.”

PAUL:

Financial journalist Alan Kohler says. If that happens, there would be an epic inflationary bust similar to the 1973 oil shock. Koehler points out that destroying Iran's facilities on Kharg Island, 25km off the coast, would destroy only 3% of global production. But it would be a very different story if Iran retaliated by taking out Saudi Arabian and United Arab Emirates oil production capacity, as it's threatened to do if attacked.

The 1973 oil shock had badly impacted the global economy, and a similar disruption to oil supplies, given that we now import all of them, would redefine the debate over cost of living and energy policy in Australia, there's no doubt about that.

DANIEL:

So if that was the case, then Paul, that this ends up impacting people's cost of living here in Australia right before an election. How do you think that will shape the way the election is fought?

PAUL:

Well, rationally, given the current scientific alarm over global warming, it should give weight to relying even more urgently on Australia's abundant sources of wind and solar energy. Our vulnerability to imported fossil fuels for our transport needs would be significantly lessened if we were further down the path of electrification. But, you know, we're yet to see what energy policies the Coalition will take to the next election. We should remember nuclear is at least three elections away, if ever.

And in the latest batch of opinion polls, analyst Kevin Bonham sees an improvement for Labor, giving it an aggregate edge that could be bolstered by rising consumer confidence and an even healthier budget position thanks to Chinese demand for iron ore. And Daniel, no doubt, Albanese on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Laos this week, will express his gratitude to China's Premier Li Qiang for Beijing's latest economic stimulus policies. While I have no doubt at the same time, keeping his fingers crossed that the Middle East conflict does not dramatically impact global oil energy supplies.

DANIEL:

Paul, thank you so much for your time. Let's do this again soon.

PAUL:

Thank you, Daniel. Bye.

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DANIEL:

Also in the news today,

The deputy prime minister’s chief of staff claims she is being forced out of her job after raising complaints of bullying against her colleagues.

Jo Tarnawsky claims that while she’s still currently employed as Chief of Staff, she has been ostracised and unable to access her office without giving 24 hour notice since June this year.

During question time, the deputy prime minister said he upheld the ministerial code of conduct which requires ministers to uphold the highest workplace standards, including a safe and respectful workplace culture.

Tarnawsky has not made allegations of bullying against the deputy prime minister.

And, New South Wales police are currently investigating more than 80 cases of alleged coercive control.

The new data comes after coercive control was declared a criminal offence in New South Wales back in July this year.

So far, only one person has been charged by the New South Wales police for the crime.

7am is a daily show from Schwartz Media and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Cheyne Anderson, Zoltan Fecso, and Zaya Altangerel.

Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

We are edited by Chris Dengate and Sarah McVeigh.

Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing by Travis Evans.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

7am is hosted by Ruby Jones and myself, Daniel James.

We will be back on Monday, with the first episode in a special three part series: This is Alice Springs.

See you then.

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