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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media. I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

Cyclone Alfred should never have tracked as far south as it did. Yet in March it tore through Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Northern Rivers, affecting four million people.

One of them was climate scientist and IPCC lead author Joëlle Gergis.

She says the storm’s freak southward drift, driven by record-warm oceans, shows the climate crisis is outrunning politics.

Today, Joëlle Gergis on how far governments have fallen behind on their climate promises … and the bold action Australia must take before the next disaster strikes.

It’s Thursday, June 26.

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RUBY:

So Joelle, welcome back to 7am.

JOËLLE:

Hi Ruby, it's nice to talk to you.

RUBY:

As we speak, Joelle though, you are, I believe having repairs done on your house after Cyclone Alfred hit, back in March. So could you take me back to that time? It must've been a scary moment.

JOËLLE:

Yeah, it sure was. I mean, I live in northern New South Wales, which is well outside of the usual tropical cyclone belt. And it's really, really rare to have a category two system drift so far outside of The Tropics. And I actually had to look up Queensland government websites for information on how to prepare for an approaching cyclone, as we don't usually get these systems so far south. And, and as a scientist, it's, really, really disturbing to understand that the world as we know it. Really starting to change in ways that really now feel really dangerous and it's like life as we know it is slipping away and and yet most people don't realise it until it literally crashes through your own front door.

RUBY:

And your house, am I right in saying that it would not have necessarily been built to withstand this kind of storm?

JOËLLE:

Yeah, so areas north of around Bundaberg in Queensland are built to withstand cyclones, so while areas that are located further south still need to be able to handle strong winds, they aren't built to the same standards of those in places like northern Queensland where cyclones are a known risk. So we ended up having to board up all of our east-facing windows with thick plywood as the glass was starting to flex in the really strong winds as the cyclone approached. It was terrifying.

Audio excerpt – Speaker:

“A very good morning to you all across Australia, welcome to this special edition of Weekend Today live from South East Queensland, where cyclone Alfred has started to make landfall.”

JOËLLE:

Luckily the category two system weakened before it made landfall.

Audio excerpt – Speaker:

“As we go to air, it has now dropped to a Category 1. It's right now over Moreton Bay, 55 kilometres northeast of Brisbane, and heading towards Bribie Island.”

JOËLLE:

But because it was really slow moving, the coast was really relentlessly battered by destructive winds and waves and really heavy rainfall for nearly a week and the beaches are a mess around here and so many large habitat trees, which is really important for wildlife, actually came down in the storm and it's gonna take years for the landscape to recover.

And as you might imagine, these sustained strong winds brought down power lines, huge trees fell onto people's properties, including my neighbour across the road. And water just blew into every single tiny, you know, gap in the window seals or in the roof.. And I mean, our roof leaked and the damage in the ceiling of the room that I'm talking to you in right now is still under repair and as you might imagine it's been a total nightmare but I'm not alone. I mean there were around four million people that were affected by cyclone Alfred and so many people are still battling it out with their insurance companies to get started on their repairs. Yeah so it's it's been a really tough time.

RUBY:

Tell me more about the reasons that we're seeing cyclones drifting for the South like this and as you mentioned staying around the area longer.

JOËLLE:

So what we saw with cyclone Alfred is really consistent with what we expect as the planet continues to warm. So as ocean temperatures get hotter, tropical cyclones will begin to drift further south of these historically defined cyclone zones. And that's exactly what we saw. And while most people understand that, you know, when we burn greenhouse gases, that extra heat gets trapped in the atmosphere. Not everyone really appreciates that the majority of the heat is actually absorbed by the ocean. And in 2024, which was the world's warmest year global temperatures reached 1.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels, we saw extraordinary heat observed through the global ocean. So in the Coral Sea, where Alfred actually began its life, that area actually recorded its warmest summer on record and ocean temperatures are around about a degree warmer than average. And so while the damage was extensive, I really do think it could have been a lot worse and it's probably a matter of time until it is. So I see it really as a preview of what's to come as the planet continues to warm.

RUBY:

And what other damage are we seeing as oceans get warmer.

JOËLLE:

Since 2023, we've actually seen a mass coral bleaching event that's damaged 84% of the world's coral reefs.

Audio excerpt – Speaker:

“Once vibrant coral reefs have lost their colours in what scientists say is part of the worst bleaching event on record.”

JOËLLE:

So that's a really hard number to get your head around. And it's catastrophic.

Audio excerpt – Speaker:

“Impacting more than 80 countries and territories.”

JOËLLE:

Here in Australia, the Ningaloo coast, It's a world heritage area in northwestern Australia, which is known for its pristine beauty. It's quite a remote area. And that area this summer succumbed to the worst coral bleaching in its history.

And researchers who were working in the area had sort of seen Ningaloo as a bit of a hope spot because of its unexpected resilience to marine heat waves. And actually when they went down and did their underwater surveys, there were reports of people emerging from the water, bawling their eyes out.

And I really do understand this feeling, it's truly heartbreaking to be living through this era of irreversible destruction and particularly when we know there are things we can do to minimise the damage.

And really until the Albanese government introduces these nature laws that effectively criminalise the fossil fuel industry's continued desecration of country, we will lose more and more of our precious places even in the most remote last of the last refuges like Ningaloo.

RUBY:

After the break - what John Howard and the Labor Party have in common when it comes to fighting climate change.

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RUBY:

JOELLE, let's talk some more about the Labour government. They're well into their second term now. How would you assess their approach to addressing the climate crisis?

JOËLLE:

Look, I feel like Labour is in a really conflicted position. They want to be seen to be doing something about climate change, but they don't really want to address the root cause of the problem, which is the burning of fossil fuels. And the truth is, is that Labour has now approved 27 fossil fuel projects since it was first elected in 2022. And as we all saw recently, the first act of the newly appointed environmental minister, Murray Watt, was to conditionally approve the extension of operations of Australia's largest oil and gas production area off the Kimberley coast from 2030-2070. The upgrading of Woodside Energy's north-west shelf gas processing plant, which isn't too far from Ningaloo, paves the way for the development of other fossil fuel projects off the remote Kimberley coast. So although governments like to claim the moral high ground on its sort of climate credentials talking up its commitment to renewable energy and green manufacturing, the Woodside decision is proof of Labour's allegiance to fossil fuel companies until the bitter end. Unfortunately, it's entirely inconsistent with what the science says we need to do to stabilise the Earth's climate to really try and minimise the harm to human societies and ecosystems. So no matter how people want to rationalise it, the physics doesn't actually care about politics. These changes are going to play out whether or not we understand the science of climate change and the fact is that every tonne of carbon, no matter where it's burned, will remain in the atmosphere. Hundreds of years and that locks in high levels of global warming that will commit the world to irreversible changes and really stretch the limits of human adaptation.

RUBY:

Well let’s talk a bit more about the science because according to the government Australia is on track to reach its Paris targets and the official data shows that Australia's emissions have been dropping since 2005 and in 2024 were 27 percent below 2005 levels. So are we on track in that regard?

JOËLLE:

Yeah, this is a really interesting question. I mean, the Australian government has a long history of relying heavily on the land sector to demonstrate progress towards reducing emissions, but at the same time, they're continuing to export vast amounts of coal and gas to the rest of the world. And so it's a John Howard era approach to reducing emissions. And it's true, the latest greenhouse gas emissions figures for December, 2024, that quarter, it shows that Australia's emissions are still increasing despite this reported. Overall decline of 27% since 2005. But if you drill down a bit further, these figures rely heavily on low integrity carbon credits that underpin the government's safeguard mechanism offset scheme. So by planting some trees or avoiding deforestation, the government claims that we're more than halfway to reaching that 43% reduction that's needed by 2030. But when you remove the inflated contribution of the land sector and just count, actual emissions reductions across all polluting sectors, Australia's emissions have only fallen by 2.8% since 2005. So obviously this falls well short of meeting the government's legislative target of 43% reduction that we need by 2030. But essentially the safeguard mechanism allows our largest industrial polluters to buy these carbon credits to balance out their emissions instead of actually requiring them to reduce the huge volume of carbon they're dumping into the atmosphere for free. Actually when we look back to the global stock take which was conducted at COP28 it showed that current policies are on track to reduce emissions by just 2% not that 43% that is needed by 2030 and the reason why we're collectively failing is because governments like Australia have policy loopholes that allow this to continue.

RUBY:

Yeah, you mentioned that you would like to see the Albanese government introduce laws that criminalise the fossil fuel industry in cases where it causes damage to the country. So tell me more about what that would look like.

JOËLLE:

Look, I think it's a very simple concept of polluter pays. The basics are that 80% of emissions come from the burning of coal, oil, and gas. And the remaining 20% comes from changes in land use, so things like deforestation. So until we get to the root cause of the problem, we're going to continue to see the problem get much worse. And the fossil fuel industry and countries like Australia particularly are gambling heavily on carbon capture and storage to work. But when you actually look at the detail around that, you know, organisations like the United Nations Environment Programme have reported that around 80% of CCS projects over the past 30 years have failed and currently operational CCS plants can only offset around about 0.12 percent of global carbon emissions, that's one-tenth of one percent of global emissions, so operations would need to be scaled up roughly eight hundred times to offset current global emissions. So I really see this as just another delay tactic to keep the fossil fuel industry alive for longer. And as I mentioned, those fundamentals is that it's the burning of fossil fuels that is continuing to warm our planet.

And until we address that root cause of the problem, things are going to get worse.

RUBY:

If you do look at what is happening globally, the world's consumption of fossil fuels climbed to a record high last year, we have Trump calling to boost oil drilling even more with what's happening in Iran. So does it feel to you like the global moment for change where there was any kind of form of consensus on acting on climate change at that moment has passed us by?

JOËLLE:

Look, it's certainly a grim time. I'm not going to lie to you, it is a moment where it's complex. But when we stop and we zoom out, I mean, human history is littered with wars and unrest and this is probably going to go on until the end of time. But the world scientific community has been warning for years that high levels of global warming are going to make life intolerable for people and ecosystems.

The world has already warmed by 1.2 degrees since pre-industrial times, and current policies have us on track for essentially three times that warming by the end of this century. And I actually think it's really hard for people to truly comprehend what's upon us.

One of the key conclusions from the IPCC 6 Assessment Report is that every fraction of a degree matters. And just because we're currently off track to achieve the goals of the Paris agreements to limit warming to under two degrees, it doesn't mean that we abandon these goals. In fact, we really need to redouble our effort and our resolve. And given that everything that's at stake, giving up really isn't an option, even though the situation often feels really futile. Because the truth is, is that we know what we need to do and we just have to have the political courage to do it.

And I read a really nice piece by Western Australian writer Tim Winton and he said that the science is clear on this and the morality should be too and I really do think it's as simple as that.

RUBY:

Well Joelle, thank you so much for your time today.

JOËLLE:

Thanks, Ruby.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today…

More than 100 Australians have been airlifted out of Israel aboard an Australian military jet, after the country’s airspace was opened amid a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says there are still thousands of Australian citizens who have registered to evacuate Iran and Israel, and that the department of foreign affairs and military are working to ensure they can be safely removed from the danger zone.

And

Journalist Antoinette Lattouf has been awarded at least $70,000 after the Federal Court found she was unlawfully terminated by the ABC… amid complaints about her views on Gaza.

The court found the broadcaster contravened the Fair Work Act by terminating her employment as a casual broadcaster for ABC Radio Sydney … for reasons including that she held a political opinion opposing Israel’s military campaign.

A further hearing has been ordered to determine if the ABC should pay any additional financial penalty under the fair work act.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am, thanks for listening.

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