RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.
Twelve months ago the eastern half of the country was blanketed in smoke and our Prime Minister was nowhere to be seen.

Since then Scott Morrison has enjoyed some of his highest approval ratings as Australians turned to the government for support during the pandemic.

But with the possibility of an election next year, will it be enough to secure the Coalition another term, guaranteeing them an uninterrupted decade in power?

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno on how federal politics played out in 2020.. and what’s coming next.
Paul 2020 must have been one of the most difficult years in which to be the prime minister of Australia. Tell me, how would you characterise Scott Morrison's performance?

PAUL:

well, Ruby, there's no doubt Scott Morrison is finishing this year - and the one he calls like none other, and he's pretty right about that - when he finishes it in much better shape than he began it. And I have to say, there's as much good luck as good management in it.

You might remember in January and February, Morrison's disapproval in the Newspoll was 60 per cent.

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

Morrison has taken a hit in the polls amid criticism of his handling of the nation's bushfire disaster...

PAUL:

Anthony Albanese was preferred prime minister and support for the government collapsed.

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

The prime minister is facing a grave question over his political judgement at the start of this year for the way he's handled himself during this bushfire crisis...

PAUL:

And the trigger for that was the prime minister's misreading of an appalling response to the catastrophic bushfires...

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

“The prime minister has caved tonight, rushing back from Hawaii amid criticism for taking a holiday while Sydney burns…”

PAUL:

...epitomised by his secretly going on holidays to Hawaii with his family, and when he came back, tried to excuse himself by saying he didn't hold a hose.

Well, there's no doubt, though, that the one in 100 year pandemic...

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“We are living in unprecedented times”

PAUL:

...was the sort of dramatic circuit breaker that he and the government needed.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“this calls for unprecedented action”

PAUL:

and he certainly didn't waste the crisis.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“and today, our government has made a decision today and that I announce today that no government has made before in Australia in response to crises such as these.”

PAUL:

His setting up of the so-called national cabinet, which was and is a rolling summit of state and territory leaders, was a political masterstroke.

But even here, it should be remembered that the Constitution foisted it on him. The states have responsibility for health, and the Constitution also handily provided the prime minister with the premiers as scapegoats if anything went wrong. But as we end the year Ruby, there's been a complete turnaround with Morrison's approval in the Essential Poll this week at 62 per cent and according to the mid-year budget update, we have a recovery underway.

RUBY:

So why do you think that is, Paul, that the prime minister has such a high approval rating?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, as I say, it's intimately tied to the Covid-19 crisis. Labor leader Anthony Albanese himself in recent interviews, drawing on his party's own research, has said everybody wants their governments, state and federal, in the crisis to do well. Because, let's face it, everyone has a vested interest in it.

RUBY:

And what do we know about Anthony Albanese's popularity then at the end of this year? Because he's been facing pressure from some sections of his party and there have been criticisms about his failure to hold the Morrison government to account during the pandemic.

PAUL:

Well Ruby, Albanese dismisses criticism of him for being soft on Morrison and ‘Liberal lite’ during the pandemic.

Archival Tape -- Anthony Albanese:

“I am trying to be as constructive as possible - we’ve put forward ideas that are about looking for solutions rather than an argument…”

PAUL:

He says look at where negativity got the liberal opposition leader in Victoria, for example. Michael O'Brien has been far more aggressive, far more negative towards Premier Daniel Andrews, and has left voters mightily unimpressed with more disapproving of him than approving of him in the opinion polls. And by contrast, in both Newspoll and the Essential Poll, Albanese is in positive territory. The latest Essential poll, for example, has him at 42 percent approval.

And Essential’s Pollster Peter Lewis said the one job of an opposition leader this year was not to disqualify oneself from future office by acting like an opportunistic pork chop. And he says Albo’s passed this test.
Well, tending to support this analysis is the closeness of the two party preferred vote in the latest Newspoll. The 51/49 per cent, the government's way, is statistically line ball. So Morrison's stratospheric approvals haven't translated into thumping support for the government.

RUBY:

And all of this takes on some significance, Paul, when we think about what's likely to happen next year and the potential for an election. So do you think that we will be going to the polls in 2021?

PAUL:

Well, Scott Morrison says he's a full-term prime minister. But if the precedent of other full-termers is any guide, that suggests the second half of 2021 will be the most likely window of opportunity for the prime minister to call a poll. Certainly the Labour Party is gearing up for a general election around July or August, and even if this is proved wrong, no one expects the prime minister to go beyond March of 2022 - in other words, the fevered atmospherics of election campaigning will dominate the year ahead.

Now, while it's true, a significant number of people leave it till polling day to make up their mind who to vote for, politicians don't have the luxury of delaying their pictures - they have to fight to be noticed well ahead of polling day; the old saying is you can't fatten the pig on market day, and some in the Labour caucus are a bit worried that Albanese has missed this truism. And it's fed some of the murmuring on the Labour backbench about Albanese's leadership. But he's confident he's in better shape against the Morrison government than a cursory examination of the opinion polls might suggest.

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

[ADVERTISEMENT]

RUBY:

Paul, there is no doubt that covid-19 has defined 2020, but what do you think we should expect when it comes to federal politics next year?

PAUL:

Well Ruby, just as in 2020, it'll be events more often unseen that will determine the direction of 2021. But already there are ‘known knowns’ that have our government struggling to manage and to which voters can rightly demand to know what the Labour alternative would do about them. And when you think about the challenges ahead, climate change is obviously near the top of the list. And I've got to say, it's as problematic for Scott Morrison as it is for Anthony Albanese. In fact, I'd say there's a strong argument that the Labor leader is a long way further down the track solving his internal issues than is the prime minister.

RUBY:

Can you tell me more about that?

PAUL:

Well, Albanese's biggest internal irritant on climate policy, Joel Fitzgibbon, has kindly dispatched himself to the backbench, where though he has become Labour's most high profile coal spruiker and like his allies in the caucus and he has a few, he accepts commitment to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, whereas for Morrison, there's no such comfort. Resources Minister Keith Pitt from Queensland, who's a member of the Nationals party room in Canberra, makes it crystal clear that his party will not accept the target.

Archival Tape -- reporter:

“...does that mean they will or not? Do you support net zero emissions by 2050?”

Archival Tape -- Keith Pitt:

“Well there's been, there's been no policy decision on that…”

PAUL:

His embattled leader, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, says the target is unworkable.

Archival Tape -- Michael McCormack:

“Well zero emissions by 2050 is not on the agenda…”

PAUL:

Former Resources Minister Matt Canavan goes further - he says it's fantastical.

Archival Tape -- Matt Canavan:

“One of the things I’m very focused on is making sure that we do not glibly sign up to these fantastical, ridiculous next generation targets like net zero emissions by 2050 and cripple our economy in doing so…”

PAUL:

Now, the 2050 target has become totemic of commitment to real climate change action. You know, Morrison was excluded from that international climate ambitions summit the other week precisely because he had nothing to offer except motherhood statements like ‘by the second half of the century’ or ‘as soon as possible’. Public opinion in Australia is hardening against this denialism, as it did back in 2007. And you might remember that forced a reluctant John Howard to go to the election with an emissions trading scheme.

Archival Tape -- John Howard:

“Australia will more than play its part to address climate change, but we will do it in a practical and balanced way, in full knowledge of the economic consequences for our nation.”

PAUL:

Though his late conversion failed to convince the electorate, and that could be a risk facing Scott Morrison.

RUBY:

Paul, this time last year, the eastern half of the country was covered in bushfire smoke, and it seemed at that moment like climate change would be the dominant political issue of 2020, but then, of course, the pandemic hit. Do you think that anything has fundamentally changed in terms of what Australians expect from our governments as a result of the huge challenges that we've gone through this year?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, I believe that the pandemic has definitively shown that Australians want, and expect, and indeed deserve big government and not small government to look after them - all the time, and not just in a time of crisis. I think the pandemic was the last nail in the coffin of neoliberal trickle-down economics. That's when the coalition ditched its ideology in this direction and spent billions of dollars looking after workers, families and the unemployed through JobKeeper and JobSeeker.

And I believe going forward that this benchmark will be there for this government and future governments as far as the voters and the people of Australia are concerned. But hopefully 2021 will be better than 2020. It couldn't be worse, could it?

RUBY:

Paul, thank you for talking to me. Not just today, but every week during this year and helping make sense of, I think, probably the strangest year that I've ever been through.

PAUL:

Well, thank you so much, Ruby. It's been terrific talking to you during the year and thanks to your wonderful team. And I wish you and our many podcasters all the best for the season and a very happy holiday. BYE. See you next year.

RUBY:

See you Paul.

[ADVERTISEMENT]

RUBY:

Also in the news today…
A cluster of coronavirus cases in Sydney’s northern beaches has grown to 17.

NSW Health authorities have asked residents in the Northern Beaches local government area to stay home as much as possible and to avoid interacting with other households.

And the Victorian Ombudsman has found that the state government’s decision to lock down nine public housing towers violated the human rights of 3000 residents.

The residents were given no notice when Premier Dan Andrews announced in July they would be barred from leaving their homes to try and prevent the spread of Covid-19.

The Ombudsman urged the government to apologise for the impact the lockdown had on their wellbeing but the housing minister, Richard Wynne, said the government would “make no apology for saving people’s lives”.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper. It’s produced by Ruby Schwartz, Atticus Bastow, Michelle Macklem and Cinnamon Nippard.

Elle Marsh is our features and field producer, in a position supported by the Judith Neilson Institute for Journalism and Ideas.

Brian Campeau mixes the show. Our editor is Osman Faruqi. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.
Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

Thanks for listening to 7am this year. We’ll be back on January 25, but we’ll be re-releasing some of our favourite episodes throughout the break. Our special series on the health impacts of climate change will launch on January 5.

I’m Ruby Jones, see ya next year.