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KARA:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Kara Jensen-Mackinnon. This is 7am.

Australia is supposed to be reducing its emissions at a rapid pace, and last year, the government put a new target into law.

Now, we will finally get to see exactly how the Albanese government plans to force our biggest polluters to reduce their emissions.

But will it win the support it needs? And how will it shape the political year to come?

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno, on why next week could either end the climate wars, or start a whole new chapter.

It’s Friday, February 3.

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KARA:

Hello, Paul. Welcome back.

PAUL:

Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be here.

KARA:

How was your summer?

PAUL:

Oh, well, terrific. I'm full of beans. I'm slightly more tanned than I usually am thanks to a week in the Queensland Sun, and I'm ready for whatever the politicians can throw at us next week.

KARA:

Incredible. I do want to talk about next week returning to Parliament, because last year we spoke a lot on the show about the Government legislating this 43% emissions reduction target. But really that was just them putting an ambition into law. It didn't come with a road map of how we were actually going to get there. But now as Parliament is going to resume, as you say, next week, we could finally have more detail, couldn't we?

PAUL:

Well, that's right, Kara. The new 43% emissions reduction target. Well, it was passed last year after securing the support of the Greens and the crossbench, and the government won the support by promising this was a floor and not a ceiling on Australia's ambitions to cut emissions by 2030. Now over the break, Energy Minister Chris Bowen released a key piece of the Government's plan to actually start cutting those emissions.

Archival tape – Chris Bowen:

“This is a very ambitious package that we announced yesterday 5%, 4.9%, reductions each year…”

PAUL:

It's going to be a priority for the Government in the first parliamentary sitting weeks, which as we say, begins on Monday.

Archival tape – Chris Bowen:

“Between now and 2030. It will take 205 million tonnes of carbon emissions out of our atmosphere”

PAUL:

The changes will involve an overhaul to the only architecture Australia really has to force the nation's biggest polluters to cut their emissions. That existing policy is called the safeguard mechanism.

KARA:

And this safeguard mechanism. Australia already has that. But Chris Bowen is proposing big changes to that.

PAUL:

Yes, the safeguard is actually about a decade old, and it was introduced not by a Labor Government but, would you believe it, by Tony Abbott's government. In fact the legislation came out of a key moment in the decade we've had of ugly climate wars.

Archival tape – Tony Abbott:

“Everyone's prices are going to go up and up and up because that's the nature of a carbon tax…”

PAUL:

Abbott you might remember railed against both Kevin Rudd's CPRS and Julia Gillard's price on carbon.

Archival tape – Tony Abbott:

“It's just going to go up and up and up and from today people are paying the price of Julia Gillard's betrayal…”

PAUL:

And the safeguard mechanism was his much more watered down attempt at some kind of emissions reduction policy. It's a cap and trade system. It imposes a cap on the emissions of Australia's heaviest polluting companies, and it enables them to buy credits earned by other more successful emitters to meet their own target. Now the Albanese Government wants to amend the legislation, bringing the safeguard in line with the new reduction targets, so that the baseline cap for Australia's biggest emitters goes down each year in line with the targets. The Government hopes if they can get it through the Parliament, it has the potential to mark a definitive end to the climate wars, especially if the Coalition backs its own former policy.

KARA:

And getting it through Parliament. That's obviously going to be easier said than done because, as you say, climate policy in Australia has been hugely contentious and the Government will need votes to come from somewhere for this to pass the Senate. So what do you know about how this proposal is being received?

PAUL:

Well, it's been welcomed by business groups and supported in principle by the Minerals Council, and that's enough to condemn it for those demanding more urgent and dramatic action. Now, if the Coalition party room — which meets next Tuesday — decides to vote against the bill, as it did with Labor's 43% emissions reduction target last year, its fate will rest with the Greens and one other crossbench senator, probably the ACT’s David Pocock.

Archival tape – Adam Bandt:

“Labor's climate policy says pollution from coal and gas will increase because Labor wants to open new coal and gas projects, because coal and gas corporations can open new projects and just buy their way out of any caps imposed on them”

PAUL:

Now, after promising at the end of last year that the Greens intend to make their presence really felt in 2023, party leader Adam Bandt delivered a hard hitting speech to the Smart Energy Council last Monday.

Archival tape – Adam Bandt:

“We are open to negotiating with the government in good faith about a safeguard to ensure that we get real cuts to pollution and not just hot air. However, Labor's plans for new coal and gas lines will be the biggest sticking point”

PAUL:

Bandt accused Labor of being as pro methane as Morrison.

Archival tape – Adam Bandt:

“You wouldn't know it from the social media posts, but Labor is as pro methane as Morrison. They are just as wedded to new coal and gas as the Liberals were, and it's time to expose it”

PAUL:

One government adviser says it's difficult to see how Bandt can walk back from this hard line position. And Chris Bowen, I can tell you, is certainly worried when there are warnings from the ACCC of medium term shortfalls of domestic gas supply. He's been in Europe this week, but it didn't stop him firing off an impassioned media release, accusing the coalition of rank hypocrisy for not coming to the table. I'd have to say his case is incontrovertible.

PAUL:

If the coalition did vote against it, they'd be voting against their own legislation. The bill was actually prepared by the Morrison Government's Angus Taylor, and was in response to the recommendation of the 2020 expert panel, which that government then accepted. But as with many other things, it didn't get around to doing anything with it. Morrison had no stomach to fight the coal champions in his ranks. The same dynamic, I have to say, appears to still be at work under Peter Dutton. Far from reinventing himself and repositioning the Liberals ahead of the next election. It appears Dutton feels safer doing more of the same. Paying lip service to climate action while actively opposing any real progress.

KARA:

We'll be back in a moment.

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KARA:

Paul, We've been talking about climate change, and it sounds like we're about to see some fierce negotiations over what the future of climate policy is going to be. Peter Dutton and the Coalition were sent a pretty strong message at the last election that this is a key concern for voters. So how important is it for the Opposition Leader to project the right image and pick the right approach here?

PAUL:

Well, Kara, the Opposition leader is certainly walking a difficult tightrope. Arguably, he got it wrong last year when he ignored the pleadings of his Senate leader, the Liberal moderate Simon Birmingham, and forced the opposition to vote against the 43% target rather than let it pass on the voices. Birmingham’s suggestion would have reduced Labor's ability to weaponize their rejection of the stronger target at the next election. Another high profile attempt to derail Labor's climate action responses can only undermine the credibility of whatever green conversion Dutton later comes up with as he attempts to win back heartland urban seats, lost in no small way on climate change. But this does presume he'll still be leading the opposition in 2025 when the election's due. Party room sources have told me that Dutton's pattern of entrenched negativity on climate change — and indeed the voice to Parliament — is to do with his desperation to keep the numbers behind him. According to one backbencher, Peter Dutton is leading a dispirited and disunited team who are bitterly divided on these and other key issues.

KARA:

Right. So are you actually saying that Dutton's leadership is being questioned here? Is that how much he has to begin to cut through and restore faith with voters this year?

PAUL:

Well, to be clear, we're far from that happening at the moment. But as the election approaches, if the opinion polls show no improvement, the party may be forced to look elsewhere. There have been some attempts at personal renovation. When Peter Dutton became leader last year, he said he now regrets walking out on Kevin Rudd's apology to the Stolen Generations in 2008. But you know, his arguments for holding back on support for the Voice are essentially the same as he gave for the apology refusal. He attacks the Voice for doing nothing to close the gap, completely missing the power of a nationally endorsed recognition to foster reconciliation. In both cases, it points to a deep rooted lack of respect for Indigenous people. But Anthony Albanese is refusing to engage in a political fight with Dutton on the referendum. He says it's above partisan politics, and after all the initiative for it came from Liberal prime ministers. He still hopes Peter Dutton quote “joins the call from the Uluru Statement from the Heart to walk with Indigenous Australians on the path of reconciliation.”

KARA:

And Paul, Anthony Albanese's attempts to stand above politics when it comes to the Voice seem to be running into trouble. Of course, next week we're going to see much more of how the Prime Minister and the Government are going to approach the Voice and the rest of their agenda. So what do we know about how his approach has changed over the break?

PAUL:

Well, the Albanese Government’s second year in power is shaping up as a wild ride. The Prime Minister is intent on using every opportunity to establish a legacy as a Labor reformer, quote “changing the nation for the better.”

Archival tape – Tony Burke:

“The year ahead in the autumn session alone will be progressing: the establishment of the Housing Australia Future Fund-…”

Archival tape – Tony Burke:

“The legislation required to hold a referendum in the second half of this year-…”

Archival tape – Tony Burke:

“To guarantee superannuation as a right under the national employment standards-...”

PAUL:

This week, Leader of the House Tony Burke laid out a massive 2023 agenda for Parliament.

Archival tape – Tony Burke:

“Establishing the National Reconstruction Fund-…”

Archival tape – Tony Burke:

“Delivering on our commitments to extend paid parental leave-…”

Archival tape – Tony Burke:

“And of course the changes to cultural policy that the Prime Minister and I announced only on Monday-...”

PAUL:

And along with the huge challenges the nation faces economically and socially, it will certainly test Albanese's mettle.
But the Prime Minister begins the year in the ascendancy. The average Labor lead in the five opinion polls already published this year is close to 14%. This suggests that Albanese has plenty of political capital to expend, and he'll definitely need it. And the Prime Minister is also in the comfortable position of having all his challenges as leader coming from outside the government and not from within his own ranks.

KARA:

Very excited to see how this all plays out next week, Paul. Thanks for your time.

PAUL:

Thank you, Kara. Bye.

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KARA:

Also in the news today,

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced that a redesign of the five dollar note will no longer feature a portrait of Queen Elizabeth, but will also not feature the image of King Charles.

The new note will feature a quote: “design that honours the culture and history of the First Australians.”

The announcement was attacked by Liberal leader Peter Dutton, who said that the decision was a, quote, “attack on our systems, our society, and our institutions.”

And

The tiny radioactive capsule that was lost in the Western Australian desert was safely recovered on Wednesday.

Used in mining operations, the capsule – no bigger than a Tic-Tac – was lost somewhere along a fourteen-hundred kilometre journey through the outback, after apparently falling off the back of a truck.

The capsule posed significant risks of radiation exposure if approached by members of the public. Rio Tinto, the company that owns the capsule, said it would repay the WA government for search costs.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by me, Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Alex Tighe, Zoltan Fesco, and Cheyne Anderson.

Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Our editor is Scott Mitchell. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing this week by Zoltan Fecso and Atticus Bastow.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, this is 7am, see you next week.

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