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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

Donald Trump has officially launched his campaign to be president again on a stage in Waco, Texas.

Despite the likelihood of an imminent arrest and a campaign in disarray he is still, somehow, the front runner to face Joe Biden at the 2024 election.

So how can Trump still command the Republican base? Can the party, and America ever be rid of him? And will he become the first former president to be indicted?

Today, senior fellow at the US studies centre and former Democratic staffer Bruce Wolpe, on Trump’s first steps on the election trail.

It’s Thursday, March 30.

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RUBY:

So, Bruce, over the weekend, Donald Trump officially launched his campaign to be president again of the United States in 2024. That launch involved a huge rally. But just how likely is it looking right now that he would actually become the Republican nominee? I mean, does he have a real shot at this?

BRUCE:

He does have a real shot with this and more than people expected as much as two or three months ago. What Trump has done and in part from his internal work, but also external pressures of him being perceived as being persecuted by Joe Biden, the left wing government, the activists, the deep state. He has really built his base, deepened his base with his supporters who never deserted him even after January six, insurrection after he left office. They have been between 30 and 40% of Republican voters. But over these past months, as he's really worked hard to corral his base, keep them on board his support in a poll this week by National Public Radio and Marist over 70% of Republicans would be pleased if he would return to office and be president again. So to answer your question, yeah, Trump is a very viable candidate. He knows it and he wants to seize power again.

RUBY:

And so as Trump gears up then for his presidential campaign, there is this question hanging over him: Will he be arrested and face charges in relation to the money that was allegedly paid to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election campaign? And it seems like any day now the Manhattan district attorney might decide to press ahead on that case - which would make Trump the first former U.S. president to be indicted. So does it seem likely that will happen?

BRUCE:

It does seem like it still might happen. He pulled the trigger on this, a week ago Saturday he said that he was about to be arrested and brought to New York by the Manhattan district attorney.

Archival tape -- Reporter 1:

“Former President Trump could be facing an imminent indictment after his former attorney and fixer Michael Cohen testified yesterday after a grand jury.”

BRUCE:

and the work of the grand jury. Yes, we were waiting day by day as they meet. And we'll see, in fact, if an indictment is brought down.

Archival tape -- Reporter 1:

“New York prosecutors have invited Trump to testify about his role in the hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.”

BRUCE:

I think the Manhattan attorney learned a lot after Trump set the fuse that this was underway. And he learned a lot in two respects. First, the political firepower that Trump can deliver against him. And secondly, it made him look again at his case, because if you're going to indict a president, a former president, you better be right. And I think he wanted to take extra time to shore up his case. So those two things are unfolding.

But there are other legal vulnerabilities. The case involving Trump's mishandling of classified documents when he left office, the raid at Mar a Lago last year, that is really heating up. A judge has found that sufficient evidence that crimes were committed with the classified documents, that, in fact, that protection has been waived. In Georgia there's a grand jury looking at whether Trump interfered in that election and tried to overturn it illegally. Remember the famous phone call just fine me, 11,780 votes. You know, I won the election and I think an indictment is pending there. There's also a grand jury under Jack Smith looking at the insurrection. There has been news this week that the vice president will have to testify on that. So to answer your question, is there a vulnerability here and more likelihood than not of indictments? Yes, I believe that's the case.

RUBY:

Right. Okay. And despite that, despite multiple criminal investigations underway, Trump launched his 2024 campaign rally this past Sunday. Can you tell me about the launch and how he dealt with these allegations?

Archival tape -- Donald Trump:

“The stakes of this election could not be more clear. Either we surrender to the demonic forces abolishing and demolishing and happily doing so our country, or we defeat them in a landslide on November 5th, 2024.”

BRUCE:

It's sort of like the old days because it was his first rally since declaring that he was running again for president. Trump did turn to one of his favourite playing cards. He always likes to denigrate his opponents.

Archival tape -- Donald Trump:

“You could take the five worst presidents in American history and put them all together and they wouldn't have done the damage that Joe Biden has done to our nation in just two and a half short years.”

BRUCE:

He had several thousand people in Waco. They were amped up, they were given signs for witch hunt and other slogans that were they were able to hold aloft at moments in the speech when Trump was referring to his persecution.

Archival tape -- Donald Trump:

“For those who have been wronged and betrayed, of which there are many people out there that have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution. We will take care of it. We will take care of it”

BRUCE:

I think the biggest difference was that in previous rallies leading up to this, he talked about how the 2020 election was stolen and he had his whole litany of complaint and angst. This time he was talking about how he's being persecuted.

Archival tape -- Donald Trump:

“The innocence of people makes no difference whatsoever to these radical left maniacs.”

BRUCE:

But he said something really interesting that I think framed it in a very compelling fashion. He said, when they come after me, they're coming after you and they want to get you.

Archival tape -- Donald Trump:

“So we have got to stop them from cheating in elections. Because if we don't win this next election in 2024, I truly believe our country is doomed. I think it's doomed.”

BRUCE:

In one phrase in one moment brings the whole crowd together with him to vindicate their belief and hope that he will be restored to power to continue the fight that they supported in 2016 and 2020.

Archival tape -- Donald Trump:

“It probably makes me the most innocent man in the history of our country. Friends of mine say that.“

BRUCE:

So he really, I think, is utilising the legal pressure that threatens to indict him, maybe put him in jail. And the populist pressure that they want their hero to be sustained and victorious. And so I thought Waco was a really good departure point for him.

RUBY:

Okay. So it sounds like Trump is using these allegations in his campaign, to try and bolster his popularity and to craft this narrative of persecution, not just of him personally, but of his supporters as well. And I mean, it sounds to me almost like he wants to be arrested because that would really create the kind of excitement in the crowd that he's going for.

BRUCE:

I think that's exactly right. I mean, he becomes a martyr Immediately.

After the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago last year. His popularity went up. The contributions went up last week after he lit the fuse that I'm going to be arrested in New York. The contributions came up as his poll numbers came up.

Even though he hates it all his professional life, he has been in courtrooms battling other developers, city councils, political leaders in order to get his way in business. And he's hated the idea that he could be brought to justice and he would face jail for crimes.

He's a fighter. Trump doesn't have a reverse gear. He never retreats. It's always attack, attack, attack. And yes, he believes that if he is a martyr, that will cement his position in the Republican Party and give him a really clear tactical advantage in going against the Democrats in 2024.

RUBY:

We'll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Bruce, at Donald Trump’s rally, he spoke about being wronged, betrayed, and of retribution - using this fundamentalist kind of language. And the place that he was saying all this - the place he chose to officially launch his re-election campaign, Waco, Texas – there’s history there isn’t there, which I suppose fits in with Trump’s rhetoric. Can you tell me about it.

Archival tape -- Reporter 2:

“Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us. A fanatical scripture quoting religious leader who moved to Waco to await the end of the world.”

BRUCE:

It was 30 years to the day when the Branch Davidians, which is a cult-like group, engaged in insurrectionist activities in Texas.

Archival tape -- Reporter 3:

“More than 150 ATF agents had come here armed with search and arrest warrants. They were greeted with lots of gunfire.”

BRUCE:

Then a terrible conflagration erupted.

Archival tape -- Reporter 3:

“But never before has the Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms Bureau lost this many people in a single operation.”

BRUCE:

Their compound burned to the ground and dozens of people were killed.

Archival tape -- Reporter 4:

“This morning investigators began sifting through the embers of the Waco compound searching for the bodies of the more than 80 cult members believed killed in the fire.”

BRUCE:

So it became a rallying cry calling card for domestic supremacists in the United States. So Trump never does anything by coincidence. It is all calculated to maximise his finger on the pulse of conservatives right wing activists across the country. Trump knows how to push cultural buttons, and he does it all the time. And holding his rally 30 years to the day after Waco. That's gold for him.

RUBY:

Okay. And if we could come back to the case in New York, I mean, Trump claims that that case is politically motivated. And in a sense, that isn't entirely untrue because Manhattan prosecutors are elected and therefore, they have a political affiliation. They are able to select which cases they want to go to trial. So considering that, do you think that Trump could ever really get a fair trial in that context?

BRUCE:

He's using that as the strongest political argument, you see, the Democratic witch hunters are against me. But the fact is, prosecutors across the country, you know, every state votes for an attorney general and so forth. Can he get a fair trial in New York? Yes, he can get a fair trial in New York. And the turning point on a reckoning of justice on that is in very simple terms, Michael Cohen, Trump's lawyer, Trump's fixer, made the payments, he says, at the direction of Donald Trump. Michael Cohen went to jail. So under American justice, why shouldn't the person who ordered him allegedly to do this go to jail? And on that basis, I think you can say it is less a political issue than an issue of equity under the law. But people will see this as highly politically motivated on a case that compared to insurrection at the Capitol, overturning an election in Georgia, mishandling classified documents, it doesn't rise to that level of intensity as the other cases.

RUBY:

Right and the very idea of someone facing criminal charges while also running for office. It's highly unusual isn't it? Is it actually possible to do both? How would this play out?

BRUCE:

We've never been there. Now, Richard Nixon, who resigned the presidency under the Watergate scandal, was pardoned by Gerald Ford precisely to avoid a former president being so subject to this. But if he hadn't been pardoned, it's quite possible that Richard Nixon would have been prosecuted, too. So we are in uncharted territory. It's just never happened before. Again, Trump believes that it will increase his popularity among hardcore Republicans, but I do think that it provides an opening for other Republicans to say, you know, America needs a full time president. It doesn't need a full time defendant, because, in fact, if he's indicted one or two or three times, he's going to spend a lot of the next 18 months in courtrooms when he wants to be campaigning around the country. So I think that is a real problem strategically for Trump as he gets his campaign more fully underway.

Ron DeSantis has not declared yet. He's the governor of Florida. He is someone who has a lot of support at the Republican elite level.

But DeSantis is seen as someone who has all the Trumpian values. But again, without the, we’ll use the Yiddish word mishegoss that goes with everything Trump and just all the stuff that he carries with him. And without the legal problems, without the idiosyncrasies and without that, the craziness of how Trump comports himself on a day to day basis. And so that's his viability. But one on one, can he really be Trump? That is the big question. That remains to be seen.

RUBY:

And you said that you think that all of this is likely to increase Trump’s support among his hard core Republicans. But what about those who are more in the middle - is there a danger - for Trump - that those voters become spooked by the chaos? That he will be seen as too fringe, too hardline? And that this approach could damage his chances?

BRUCE:

There's certainly evidence that a lot of independent voters have had enough of Trump. They could vote Republican, but Trump is a real impediment. There's probably about 30% of Republican voters that also feel they'd prefer not to have Trump running. But the issue is, okay, is Trump against who? Trump against Biden? Well, what does 2024 look like? Are we going to have a good year in America or a bad year in America? Is the war in Ukraine continuing or not? Is there a recession or not? Are interest rates up or down? In other words, if there is an atmosphere in America of hope in 2024 that rewards the incumbent president, Joe Biden, if there is instead like there was in 2016, an atmosphere of fear and angst and concern that favours Donald Trump. So it's not just where he stands among Republicans, but where he stands among the American people. And if the American people feel that their country is going to hell, that is Trump territory.

Archival tape -- Donald Trump:

“We are at a very pivotal point in our country. Either we descend into a lawless abyss of open borders, rampant killings, super hyper inflation, which is what we have right now, and not coming down and festering corruption. Or we evict Joe Biden and the Democrats from the White House and we make America great again.”

BRUCE:

But the only way to stop Trump is to beat Trump, to beat him at the polls. And, you know, the candidates that may run against him, they can try and dance around and be quiet around him, just not talk about him, talk about themselves. But they have to, at the end of the day, take him down. They got to beat him in New Hampshire. They got to beat him in Iowa. They got to beat him in Florida. Beat him in Texas. And only when he's beaten is he fact off the stage because he can't get the Republican nomination. That's the battleground over the next 14 months.

RUBY:

Bruce, thank you so much for your time.

BRUCE:

Thank you so much.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today.

Justice Paul Brereton has officially been named the new commissioner of the national anti-corruption commission.

Brereton, a former army general, led the inquiry into alleged Australian war crimes in Afghanistan, publishing the landmark Brereton report which recommended investigation into 39 alleged murders by Australian soldiers.

And,

Minimum wage in Australia could be about to rise, with Workplace Relations minister Tony Burke hinting the government will push for an increase.

It comes ahead of the government’s submission to the Fair Work Commission’s annual wage review, due this Friday.

Burke has indicated the party supports wages rising to keep up with inflation, which is currently sitting at 6.8 percent, a decrease from January’s rate of 7.4 per cent.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See you tomorrow.

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