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DANIEL:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Daniel James, this is 7am.

One of the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump after his victory last week was Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

And it wasn’t just a political message, it was warm and personal. A sign of their close relationship.

Netanyahu’s far-right national security minister has said he’s sure Trump would see “eye-to-eye” with Israel.

But president-elect Trump has also claimed he’ll be able to end war in the Middle East.

Dana Stroul was the most senior civilian at the Pentagon focused on the Middle East on October 7, before she left the Pentagon in December.

Today she tells us what a second Trump term means for the region, and whether we could see an end to the war in Gaza.

It’s Thursday, November 14.

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DANIEL:

Dana, thanks so much for speaking with me. You were working at the Pentagon on October 7th. Can you describe to me what that was like?

DANA:

The first phone call I received was about 2a.m. in the morning. So for any of your listeners who have watched West Wing or shows like that. All the Pentagon, the State Department, the White House all have switchboards where we can call each other in the middle of the night. And mine was said to always ring if somebody needed me. So in the early morning in the United States on October 7th, Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin's chief of staff called me and had described a situation in which Hamas had broken out of Gaza and was running through Israel, killing and murdering Israelis. And I went to the Pentagon and we monitored the situation all day, both with Secretary of Defence Austin, President Biden and others.

DANIEL:

And how did it end up shifting the US's position in relation to the Middle East, Gaza and Israel?

DANA:

It shifted it tremendously.

So we had spent the first three years of the Biden administration really focussed on other threats. So generally speaking, we viewed Iran as the centre of gravity for destabilising activities across the Middle East and Iran's proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis in Yemen as increasingly sophisticated in their capabilities and able to challenge not only Israel but also the United States and others.

And the Biden administration had also spent time very much focussed on the West Bank and the situation there. And we generally assessed that in Gaza the situation was stable in the sense that Hamas and the leaders of Hamas had political governance over that area and did not want to compromise that position.

We had focussed on not having a military first strategy and then focusing with our partners on ways to bring security and stability to the Middle East that did not rely on the military as the first instrument of choice, but really the last resort. And that meant focusing on diplomacy and humanitarian aid winding down conflicts.

And obviously that all completely collapsed on October 7th as we struggled to understand both the level and scale of the violence taking place.

And really, the entirety of military effort since October 7th has been working largely to prevent World War Three, to prevent escalation of the conflict in a way that stability and security can be brought back to the region.

Audio Excerpt - News Reporter:

“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he's had three conversations with US President elect Donald Trump since his election victory.”

DANIEL:

Dana, we now have President-elect Donald Trump set to take over the presidency in January. So how would you describe the relationship between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu?

DANA:

Well, it's clearly very warm. There were plenty of news leaks that Netanyahu and Trump were speaking before his election. Netanyahu was one of the first world leaders to congratulate President-elect Trump, and they have reportedly had multiple phone calls since.

But even though Trump in the campaign stated that his administration will be the most pro-Israel administration, It's important to also reflect that Trump, number one, also said what Israel is doing in Gaza is bad for Israel. It's bad for what he calls their PR, and it's eroded their standing on the international stage.

Audio Excerpt - Donald Trump:

“They're releasing the most heinous, most horrible types of buildings falling down. And people are imagining there's a lot of people in those buildings or people in those buildings and they don't like it. And I don't know why they release, you know, wartime shots like that. I guess it makes them look tough. But to me, it doesn't make them look tough, they're losing the PR war. They're losing it big.”

DANA:

And Trump has also promised the Lebanese population, he's promised other leaders in the region, the Arab leaders. And he's made promises to Palestinians as well that he's going to bring peace.

Audio Excerpt - Donald Trump:

“I wanna see the middle east get back to peace, and real peace, but a peace that’s going to be a lasting peace. And that’s going to happen. I feel really truly confident.”

DANA:

The challenge we have right now is that there's absolutely no specificity or plans about exactly how he's going to bring peace and what Israel's requirements are are probably not going to look like what we think peace would look like, which is the end of military operations. And the reality is, after more than a year of high intensity military operations in Gaza, Hamas is still there.

And we also, I think, need to remember that Trump does not only have warm relationships with Prime Minister Netanyahu. He also has really warm relationships with the leaders of the Arab part of the Middle East, specifically in Abu Dhabi and in Riyadh in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. And these leaders are very clear on the need for a path to a Palestinian state, on dignity and humanitarian aid and more than humanitarian aid.

And to recognise those outcomes, there will have to be political concessions by the government of Israel, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu. And here, I think, is where we're going to see some significant tension.

DANIEL:

After the break. One of the key figures Trump will be listening to when he makes decisions about how he deals with the Middle East.

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DANIEL:

Dana, Trump is famously unpredictable and isolationist. So could we see a dialling back of support for Israel during Trump's second term?

DANA:

First of all, what's important to recognise at this moment in time is that there's different camps of foreign policy thinkers within the Trump circle and there's clearly an isolationist strain. And that reflects, I think, very much some of the debate within the Republican Party and the wing of the Republican Party that has very much supported President-elect Trump.

There are also other parts of his inner circle who believe that to protect America, you actually need a strong foreign policy. And some of the outcomes that they have articulated, whether it's ending the Russian invasion of Ukraine, whether it's being more tough on China or whether it's being more tough on Iran, frankly, that is not something America can do alone. It's going to have to do it with allies and partners. And to do with allies and partners means you're going to have to be engaged in the world.

And so I think what the resources and the manpower, the personnel and the attention that Trump and his team are going to put into this there's some inherent tensions. We want a burden share with the whole world. We don't want to do it ourselves. We want you all to do it. But the rest of the world isn't going to do it if they don't see America putting some skin in the game. And those are some of the conversations that I think President Trump is going to encounter when the rubber meets the road when he gets into office in January.

DANIEL:

The New York Times reported this week that Iranian operatives had discussed a plan to assassinate Donald Trump. Given that, could a Trump administration sign off on open warfare against Iran?

DANA:

Well, the only articulation we clearly have from any member of Trump's circle thus far about open war with Iran would be Vice President elect J.D. Vance.

And at the one vice presidential debate that was held, both Tim Waltz and J.D. Vance were asked very directly if they would support pre-emptive military strikes on Iran. And J.D. Vance said nothing about America's role.

All he said is that the United States should support Israel in whatever Israel wants to do.

Audio Excerpt - J.D. Vance:

“It is up to Israel what they think they need to do to keep their country safe, and we should support our allies wherever they are when they’re fighting the bad guys. I think that’s the right approach to take with the Israel question.”

DANA:

And what we haven't heard from President Trump or anyone yet and what's emerging as his foreign policy circle is a declarative or definitive articulation of what the policy will be toward Iran. So is it to prevent a nuclear weapon state? Is it to change the regime? Is it something else? They actually haven't been very clear on that.

DANIEL:

The next Trump administration is expected to try and increase the number of Arab states with diplomatic ties to Israel. How will Trump's relationship with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia factor into Saudi Arabia coming into play more of a role?

DANA:

Well, again, here are some opportunities because President Trump has a very warm relationship with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman. He also, the Trump company, has extensive business interests in Saudi Arabia, as do people like his son in law, Jared Kushner. One critical thing to recognise about Jared Kushner is that during the first Trump administration, he maintained a constant dialogue with the leaders of the Middle East. They had ready access to him and he was a key architect of the Abraham Accords, which facilitated the beginning of Israel's normalisation in the Middle East.

The other critical aspect of Kushner's vision is that it's not just about the U.S. military, but it's very much about seeing, especially in the Gulf, the Middle East as not just a regional leader, but a global leader with the global interest of these sovereign wealth funds, their focus on artificial intelligence, renewable energy, that there are tremendous investment opportunities as well in the Middle East. And so Jared Kushner has his own investment fund and has worked very extensively with the leaders of the Middle East on that. He appears to not want a formal role in the second Trump White House. But there is, I think, no question that this is a very close family and that he will serve as an important backchannel between the leaders of the region and his father in law.

The question here, though, is that for the Saudis to do this, there's going to need to be something on a Palestinian horizon for a Palestinian state. And there I think the open question is whether Netanyahu in his current governing coalition, can get to anything that would be satisfactory to the Saudis. And if he can't, what sort of anger does that cause in President Trump? We'll read about it on Twitter the next day.

DANIEL:

As this goes to air, there's 67 days left until Trump takes office. What will those months look like for people on the ground in Gaza?

DANA:

I worry that they don't look very good. And here's why. Trump has actually been quite clear publicly and then from all the leaked phone calls that he wants it to be over by his inauguration.

So if Netanyahu perceives that he has this deadline of January 20th to wrap up the military part of this campaign, I think there's a real serious probability that the military operations escalate before January 20th. So that for Netanyahu and for his governing coalition and to prepare them for some of the concessions they might need to consider on the other side of Trump's inauguration, they do what they perceive as maximum damage to Hamas now.

And so what that means for civilians in Gaza is actually more, more pressure, more military operations.

DANIEL:

Dana, thank you so much for your time.

DANA:

Thanks for having me.

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DANIEL:

Also in the news today,

US President-elect Donald Trump has nominated former Governor Mike Huckabee as the next U.S. ambassador to Israel.

Huckabee has been a vocal supporter of Israel throughout his career, more recently criticising president Joe Biden for pressuring Israel to moderate its campaign in Gaza, and has opposed calls for a ceasefire.

And, despite pledges from nations at COP28 a year ago, the burning of coal, oil and gas continued to rise in 2024.

New data, released at the UN’s COP29 climate conference, indicates fossil fuel emissions will rise by 0.8 percent this year globally, and are projected to be almost 8 percent higher than in 2015, the year the Paris climate agreement was signed.

I’m Daniel James, this is 7am. We will be back tomorrow.

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