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From Schwartz Media, I’m Ange McCormack. This is 7am.

When Anthony Albanese became Prime Minister, he imagined an optimistic future for his government.

Sensible reform in the first year, that the public would warmly welcome, followed by boldly winning the first referendum since 1977.

But the reality is far from that. A win in the referendum is looking less assured than ever, and the cost of living crisis has almost everyone feeling miserable.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper, Chris Wallace, on how economic pain is hurting the Voice campaign and what Labor will do if the referendum is lost.

It’s Friday, August 11.

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ANGE:

Chris, let's talk about the week Anthony Albanese has had. It began at Garma Festival, but it's ending in Parliament, where he's trying to convince Australians that the Government is doing enough on cost of living. What does that tell you about the challenge the Government is facing at the moment?

CHRIS:

The Albanese Government is in a really, how can I put it, not winter of our discontent, that's too dramatic, but gosh, he couldn't have got a bigger contrast between the just superb pictures coming out of Garma, and the hard cold reality of the economic numbers coming out at the minute.

Archival tape – 10 News:

“On the second day of the Garma Festival, Anthony Albanese has passionately advocated for Australians to not only vote yes, but also encourage others to do the same.”

Archival tape – Anthony Albanese:

“Both our worlds have so much to gain from listening to each other, learning from one another, working together.”

CHRIS:

So on the one hand, you know, the pictures coming out from the government, from Garma were just fantastic. And of course, First Nations Yolngu hosts of Garma, indigenous leaders like Noel Pearson.

Archival tape – Noel Pearson:

“Australians will rise to the opportunity that country has given us. When we are psychologically accepted, racism will diminish.”

CHRIS:

Politicians like Minister for Indigenous Australians, Linda Burney.

Archival tape – Crowd:

“Yes!”

Archival tape – Linda Burney:

“What will you all say?”

Archival tape – Crowd:

“Yes!”

Archival tape – Linda Burney:

“Once more.”

Archival tape – Crowd:

“Yes!”

CHRIS:

You know, it really was a heartfelt bid. You could see it happening, to boost the Voice campaign.

Archival tape – Anthony Albanese:

“A vehicle for real and practical progress. A committee of Indigenous Australians chosen by Indigenous Australians to work for Indigenous Australians in every part of our nation.”

CHRIS:

The thing is, the cack-handed monetary policy performance of outgoing Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has all of Australia in a vice. Interest rates are now really beginning to bite hard. Lots of people's mortgages are coming off fixed rate and going on to variable and everyone's going ‘ouch’. And I don't know if you saw the ABC News during the week, but Alan Kohler, the finance correspondent for the ABC TV Evening News, had a fantastic graph that he labelled “Everyone's Miserable", and it showed the latest consumer confidence figures have just plummeted.

Archival tape – Alan Kohler:

“First, the consumer sentiment index fell 0.4% and well, everyone's miserable, let's face it. But those with a mortgage are the most miserable of all, which will surprise no one…”

CHRIS:

And of course, interest rates have disrupted household budgets, threatened to sway the mortgage defaults. That's not something that Anthony Albanese could have anticipated on election night in 2022, when he so full heartedly promised to get the Voice up and embedded in the Constitution. But it won't stop him trying to pull off what looks now like a pretty unlikely ‘Yes’ victory on a referendum day one Saturday in October. So, you know, the Government's occupying, shall we say, an interesting range of experience at the minute.

ANGE:

Yeah, and we know opinion polls say there's been this steep decline in support for the Voice. But looking more closely at the polls, do they suggest why that's happening?

CHRIS:

It's really interesting. We've all been you know, you will have been doing this yourself, watching with concern as support for the Voice has just been ebbing away. And of course, the ‘Yes” campaign have been pinning hopes on the line coming out of the campaign, that there is a narrow path to victory. And it is true there is a narrow path to victory still, it can't be given up on, and Albanese is not giving up on it. But it's really worth pausing to reflect on those RedBridge polling figures released in the lead up to Garma. I can tell you the Government did, and the results were pretty shocking. It showed majority support for the Voice in not one state. 18 to 24 year olds are the only age group showing majority support for the Voice. Households earning $200,000 or more per annum are the only income bracket, showing majority support, households where a language other than English is spoken show a majority of support for the Voice but not households where English is spoken at home.

You know, when you think of what's happening in the economy and how those interest rate rises, the Reserve Bank of Engineers are really beginning to hurt people, that the picture you kind of get is the people who… young people who, of course, typically tend to be a bit more forward looking, and people who can afford to think beyond survival. And also, you know, people from a different culture other than the traditional Anglophone culture of Australia governments for the last century, they're totally behind the Voice. But everybody else is really responding to the ‘No” campaign, unfortunately, too well.

ANGE:

Right. So you're saying that reading between the lines of that polling, there's a suggestion that the cost of living crisis, which is a totally different issue to the Voice to parliament, is actually damaging the campaign for the Voice.

CHRIS:

I think that's a fair call. The truth is, for every brave, positive picture in social media posts from Garma, and from enthusiastic town hall meetings supporting the Voice around Australia, there are quietly shell shocked anecdotes from Labor people who are getting pushback from some white voters at shopping centres along the lines of “Well, Aboriginal Australians have enough of a Voice and get enough of a hand.” And the subtext seems to be “Why isn't Labor talking about me and my problems?” and against the cost of living crisis that many people are experiencing at the moment, that might be understandable, it's unattractive, but you can see the economic pressure that makes the voicing of such opinions more likely.

So it really does suggest that white voters, particularly less wealthy ones, have limited bandwidth to worry about other people's problems, if I can put it that way right now. And deep inside Labor, I think a number of people are privately preparing for a loss, and quietly planning for a pivot to a full on focus on the cost of living.

ANGE:

We'll be back after the break.

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Archival tape – Reporter 1:

“Well, first chocolate, then beer - the cost of living crisis is making it hard to enjoy the small things…”

Archival tape – Reporter 2:

“Sydney households are really starting to tighten the purse strings, with new figures showing a sharp slowdown in spending...”

Archival tape – Reporter 3:

“Drivers are being hit with near-record petrol prices across the country, some areas nudging $2.40 a litre…”

ANGE:

Chris We've been talking about how the cost of living crisis is impacting the Government's ability to cut through on other issues. What are the issues that are forcing their way onto the Government's agenda right now? What are they most concerned by?

CHRIS:

You've got to feel a bit sorry for the Albanese Government. It's keenly aware that it's still dealing with the erosion of the system of governance of the Australian public services capability under successive Coalition administrations. I mean, what's clear now, but wasn't clear on election night in 2022, is that the Morrison Government substantially wrecked the joint on its way out the door. So the Albanese Government is having to do a lot of baseline clean ups. So, you know, just take this week's media alone, on the further steaming piles of conflicted interests, malfeasance and public sector capability destruction hanging over from the Coalition. For example, you know, Four Corners Monday night had several whistleblowers talking about KPMG's performance in relation to its Department of Defence contracts performance, you'd have to say, of a very dubious kind. Of course, Prime Minister Albanese has appointed distinguished former public servant Dennis Richardson to inquire into the messy home affairs situation under Peter Dutton's ministerial oversight at the time. But, you know, Home Affairs has been a steaming mess of dubious activities for some time. If you have been following various contracts that have been issued in recent years. So it's a lot, and all the time and energy the Government has to take to deal with those problems, you know, cleaning up former Coalition government messes, takes away time and energy from implementing Labor's own agenda. And implementing that agenda has become increasingly important as time passes. It's just three months away from the halfway mark of this term of the Albanese government.

ANGE:

And Chris, earlier in the year we heard the Government say there wouldn't be new cost of living measures until the next budget. The Treasurer said he was focussed on delivering what's already been announced. But do you think with concern in the community growing we could see the Government change and actually move on this?

CHRIS:

Well, Treasurer Jim Chalmers this week announced new fines of up to $780 million for consultants who help their clients dodge tax. So that's a really big concrete measure to deal with the situation in relation to his portfolio that we were just talking about.

Archival tape – Jim Chalmers:

“The contrast couldn't be clearer. This Government's responsible economic management is providing cost of living relief, taking pressure off inflation, and investing in a better future while we clean up the mess they left behind.”

CHRIS:

In terms of cost of living, I think Jim Chalmers is highly attuned to cost of living, both as a substantive issue and as a political issue for Labor. I don't think you'll see lots of announcements. I think, you know, treasurers usually make their announcements in a budget cycle framework that makes sense. Also, treasurers know that when Reserve Bank's go on the monetary policy warpath, you've got to, kind of, go with it and try and minimise the damage until you come out the other end with inflation… the stick of inflation broken, as Paul Keating used to say. But at the same time you're beginning to see a few initiatives elsewhere in the Government. For example, Anthony Albanese foreshadowed this week a national plan for renters rights that he's going to take forward to National Cabinet for consideration in Brisbane next week. That's something that would be done in tandem with the states and territories themselves. Often that's the only way the Commonwealth can act. So there are things beginning to happen, but I think until the Voice referendum is held, it's just going to continue to dominate top line Australian politics. And underneath that kind of seething discontent from voters in relation to cost of living pressures is going to simmer away.

ANGE:

And Chris, I guess it would be a kind of nightmare scenario for voice campaigners if this referendum is defeated because of white voters voting ‘No’ out of this sense that their concerns are being overlooked. If that happens could this be Australia's Brexit moment? Could it reveal some uncomfortable truths about Australians that will be grappling with for some time.

CHRIS:

Well, let's all hope it is a ‘Yes’, but if it is a ‘No’, yes, that's one possible facet of the analysis that's likely to emerge.

But, the number one thing it should stimulate is a real backlash on the conservative side of politics about what they are really doing to the nation. Who benefits from a ‘No’ vote, a ‘No’ result in this referendum? They seem to be pinning the continuing political aspirations on a deep negativity that is not in the national interest. And in the end, I don't even think it's going to be in the Coalition's interests to pursue this kind of politics to its logical conclusion, down the drain.

So I think if the Voice referendum is lost, then I suspect the government will try and put it in the the context of the loss of the Republic referendum years ago, something that, you know, people voted on, will come back to in the future, but really will be put down to reasons that will show we as a nation have got a lot more reflection and writing of wrongs to do.

ANGE:

Chris, thanks so much for your time.

CHRIS:

Pleasure.

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ANGE:

Also in the news today…

Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn has defended the bank’s record $10.2 billion dollar profit – earned in part, because of higher interest rates.

Comyn used an interview on the ABC’s RN Breakfast program to warn against any tax on excessive corporate profits.

And…

Anthony Albanese will travel to the United States and be hosted at the White House on October 25th.

The White House announced a state dinner for the prime minister to quote: “underscore the deep and enduring Alliance between the United States and Australia.”

And before we go, this is the 1000th episode of 7am. So, on behalf of the whole team, we want to say thank you to everyone who listens to the show. You’ve made 7am the number one news podcast in the country, and we’re so overwhelmed by the support from all of you everyday. So, happy 1000th to all of you.

7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper.

It’s produced by Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Zoltan Fecso, Cheyne Anderson, and Yeo Choong and Sam Loy.

Our senior producer is Chris Dengate.

Our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Our editor is Scott Mitchell. Sarah McVeigh is our head of audio. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Mixing by Andy Elston, Travis Evans, and Atticus Bastow.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

This weekend, we’ll have a very special weekend read episode with the author of The Slap, Christos Tsiolkas.

I’m Ange McCormack, this is 7am. See you next week.

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