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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

This year Australians will head to the polls and cast their judgement on the performance of the federal government.

The Coalition has been in power for nearly a decade, but according to the latest polls the Labor opposition are the favourites to win.

But, with at least four months to go until polling day, anything could happen - especially in the unpredictable world of Australian politics.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno, on what kind of surprises might be in store this election year.

It’s Friday, January 28.

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RUBY:

So, Paul, we're back for another year and it's an election year, how are you feeling? Are you refreshed? Are you ready to take on another 12 months of Australian politics?

PAUL:

Hi Ruby, and a belated happy new year to you!

Well, my holiday was overshadowed by and really stymied by Covid. And because of the PCR testing logjam in Canberra at the end of December, we had to cancel our trip planned for the first week of January to Queensland. And then one of our grandchildren was deemed a close contact and that disrupted family reunion plans. So. Like millions of other Australians, we could have had a better summer break.

RUBY:

I'm sorry to hear that, Paul, but as you say, I think it is a very common story. Omicron affected everyone’s summer. And there's also no doubt that it's going to affect the upcoming election. On that - we know that Scott Morrison's government is currently behind in the polls. So what do you think that means in terms of timing? When do you think an election is going to be called?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, the foreboding within the ranks of the Morrison government has senior players wargaming survival strategies that are born of desperation rather than confident calculation. At the very extreme end of this is talk that the Prime Minister might do something that hasn't happened for 50 years and that is split the election of the House of Representatives from the Senate.

RUBY:

OK, so you're saying that the Prime Minister can decide to hold two separate elections on two different dates, one for the House of Representatives and one for the Senate?

PAUL:

Well, that's right. Constitutionally, the Senate has to head to the polls by the end of May because unlike the House, the Senate has fixed terms. But the House of Representatives, where the government is formed, well that can wait until September.

RUBY:

Right, so there's a possibility, then, that we would have a Senate election in May, but Scott Morrison could retain his prime ministership until September when the House of Representatives is put to a vote.

PAUL:

Well, that's one possibility being canvassed in this scenario the thinking goes Morrison would have another precious five months in power, and it would give him some distance from the government's spectacular bungling of the pandemic, which well and truly blew up in the summer.

RUBY:

OK, but how likely do you think that is, Paul, because like you say, it hasn't happened for 50 years, so surely there's a reason for that?

PAUL:

Well, you're right. Ruby.

It doesn't take very long to realise the downside risks here for Morrison, are much greater than any potential upside. Firstly, such a manoeuvre would send a strong message that Morrison was afraid to face voters, but it would also allow voters to turn a potential Senate only election into a giant by-election, making it a sort of referendum on the government's performance as something that could cost the Coalition dearly.

And certainly, that's been the result of past split elections like this, and it helps explain why such an event is so rare an occurrence and why it's still unlikely this time around.

But there are, of course, other options available to the coalition if they're seeking to avoid walking off the plank into electoral doom.

RUBY:

Don’t tell me Paul, there are other constitutional quirks?

PAUL:

Well, not quite. There's the more tried and tested method Ruby of knifing your leader to try and save the furniture. And there's certainly some discussion of that, especially if the polls continue in their current dire direction.

RUBY:

Really? is the Liberal Party is canvassing a late leadership switch?

PAUL:

Well, I'd have to tell you the discussions are subterranean, and it's certainly not being ruled out.
The possible contenders to take over are the Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Defence Minister Peter Dutton. Both, of course, are already high profile members of the government, although it's been noted that Dutton is doing much more media this term than in previous years.

Archival tape -- Leigh Sales:

“The Defence Minister, Peter Dutton is with me now from Canberra, thanks, Minister, for coming in.”

Archival tape -- Andrew Bolt:

“I'm joined now by Defence Minister Peter Dutton.”

Archival tape -- David Speers:

“Peter Dutton, welcome to the programme, and I should point out, you are joining us from home quarantine…”

PAUL:

And while that’s seen as Dutton laying down a marker for after the election, few doubt he'd rise to the occasion as it were beforehand, if the chance presented itself. And the Liberals may be emboldened by their past successes in dumping Prime Ministers with electoral impunity, that is, of course, what Scott Morrison did to Malcolm Turnbull.

Now the idea this time would be to make Morrison the scapegoat for the government's failures and for the party to pass judgement on him before the voters get the chance.

RUBY:

We’ll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Paul, assuming that we do end up with a normal federal election sometime in May, and it's Scott Morrison facing off against Anthony Albanese. Do you think that there still might be some surprise factors that would increase the uncertainty?

PAUL:

Well, Ruby, the biggest unknown yet again is Clive Palmer and his United Australia party and his seemingly bottomless wallet. Last election, he disrupted the Labor side the most, playing a key role attacking Bill Shorten in the final five weeks of the campaign exclusively and helping secure the Coalition's surprise victory.
This time so far, he's been harder on Morrison.

Archival tape -- Clive Palmer:

“And our freedom doesn’t come from Scott Morrison. The Prime Minister has abandoned Australia.”

PAUL:

For example, last week he released an advertisement attacking the Prime Minister with laser-like precision. The ad headline above a very unflattering picture was ‘Scotty from marketing’ with its subheading: ‘If you don't know where you're going, any road will get you there’. Well, sure, the bottom line was we can never trust Liberals, Labor or Greens again. But in this ad, the biggest villain was the Liberal Prime Minister.

Now, some Labor strategists welcomed Palmer's disruption to the conservative side of politics, particularly the impact it might have in the Senate. You know, he is running as the United Australia Party's number one Senate candidate in Queensland, and that pits him against Pauline Hanson and the former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman. He's running for the Liberal Democrats.

But others see the maverick operator as to quote them nothing more than adding to the Liberals media campaign spend. One says he's a liberal and he'll shovel votes back to them at the end of the day.

RUBY:

Right, and there is some evidence for that Paul isn't there, judging by what we saw at the last federal election.

PAUL:

Yes, Ruby, as we saw, there's no doubt a massive and multi-platform advertising campaign can sway the votes of the disengaged and the resentful, particularly in the final weeks of the campaign. Labor's post 2019 election research found Palmer's $83 million spend and final five weeks' attacks on Bill Shorten very damaging.
But this time, despite Palmer saying his spend will be the biggest in Australian history, there's a view he's a more damaged political commodity, particularly in Western Australia, and that's thanks to his failed challenge to the state's closed borders. And there's also a number of other differences to the last election, especially on the Labor side.

RUBY:

Right. So what approach is Labor taking Paul? And how is it different?

Archival tape -- Laura Tingle:

“Please join me in welcoming Anthony Albanese.”

Archival tape -- Anthony Albanese:

“Thank you very much, Laura…”

PAUL:

Well, Anthony Albanese has been determined to keep the focus on the Morrison government and chosen the specific policy areas he wants to fight the election on. And taxation certainly isn't one of those.

Archival tape -- Anthony Albanese:

“Well we will announce that tax policy when we announce and I have done stood up here after the review and said that no policy is our policy until we make it.”

PAUL:

Though at the National Press Club this week, Albanese refused to rule in or rule out changes to the way small business trusts are taxed

And that's the kind of thing the Coalition is desperate to pounce on. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg rushed right in confecting a scare campaign on Labor's so-called hidden agenda.

Archival tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“Now, Labor wanted us to keep spending. They wanted JobKeeper to keep going. They wanted the Covid disaster payments to keep going.”

Archival tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“We know that today a family with a $500,000 mortgage is $600 a month better off than they were under Labor.”

Archival tape -- Josh Frydenberg:

“We also know that when it comes to fuel prices, they were higher under Labor.”

RUBY:

Ok so, if Labor doesn’t want to campaign on tax policy… What is the ground they want to campaign on?

PAUL:

Well, to put it simply, Ruby, health.

This week, Albanese said the government failed in its pandemic response, and recent proof was the failure to secure enough free rapid antigen tests. And he talked of a grand slam of failures beginning with vaccines and quarantine.

Health, of course, is a traditional Labor strong point and one as a result of the pandemic. The public is mightily preoccupied about. Albanese also promised to announce more policies to strengthen Medicare.

RUBY:

OK, so Paul, how do you think this is all going to go when we do head to the polls? Will we end up with a continuation of the Morrison government or a coalition government under a new leader? Or will Anthony Albanese be the new prime minister? What's your prediction?

PAUL:

You always ask the hard questions, Rube!

Well, these are desperate times and in many ways we are in uncharted waters. But one senior Liberal said to me, you can't rule anything in or out. We do know Morrison is unpopular in his own parliamentary party, and his government is unstable on the floor of Parliament. And for this reason, the PM has kept parliamentary sitting weeks to a minimum this year, giving any plotters limited opportunities.
So I believe he will survive till the election.

Well, on who will win, the polls in fact, are stronger for Labor this time than last and Morrison now is a known quantity and he's on the ropes. If he wins, it'll be another miracle. But a more unlikely one.

RUBY:

Paul, thank you so much for your time. It's great to have you back.

PAUL:

Thank you, Ruby. Great to be back.
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RUBY:

Also in the news today,

Former TV host and White Ribbon ambassador Andrew O'Keefe has been arrested after he allegedly punched and attempted to choke a woman in his home in Sydney.

The 50-year-old presenter will face court on Thursday for the alleged assault.

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And the United States has rejected Russia's demand to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO amid warnings that Russia might invade Ukraine.

In recent weeks, Russia has been amassing troops on the Ukrainian border - something that Western countries have seen as preparation for a possible invasion.

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7am is a daily show from The Monthly and The Saturday Paper. It’s produced by Elle Marsh, Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, Anu Hasbold and Alex Gow.

Our senior producer is Ruby Schwartz and our technical producer is Atticus Bastow.

Brian Campeau mixes the show. Our editor is Osman Faruqi. Erik Jensen is our editor-in-chief.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See you next week.

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