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DANIEL:

From Schwartz Media. I’m Daniel James, this is 7am.

At the G7 Summit in Canada, Anthony Albanese had prepared carefully for a meeting with Donald Trump; even reaching out to Trump’s golfing buddy, Greg Norman.

But just before they were due to meet, Trump walked out of the summit and flew home.

In some quarters, the snub has been portrayed as a personal slight, but what it does highlight is how fragile Australia’s relationship with its most important ally has become.

Today, contributor to The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno, on the fallout from the failed meeting – and what it reveals about power, sovereignty and AUKUS.

It’s Friday June 20.

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Audio excerpt – Sky News Reporter:

“There's no getting around it. This is a complete humiliation for Albanese. So Trump has had multiple, multiple meetings with Starmer and Carney, but he'd rather have another meeting with them than have his first ever meeting with Albanese!”

DANIEL:

Paul, there's been a fair bit of commentary in the media this week that Trump cancelling his planned meeting with Albanese was an embarrassment for the Prime Minister. Do you think that's fair commentary?

PAUL:

Well, look, overall, we can't really claim that Albanese was singled out by Trump and snubbed. That's just not what happened. However, what is embarrassing, I think, for Albanese is this.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“Okay, it's been a very productive day here at the G7.”

PAUL:

Literally minutes after he outlined that he would be taking arguments to the president about tariff concessions.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“We'll continue to point out that the United States enjoys a trade surplus with Australia.”

PAUL:

He would be arguing strongly for AUKUS and for the US to stick by the agreement and the supply of the submarines.

Audio excerpt – Anthony Albanese:

“The advantage for the United States, of course, is getting access to the upgrade and facilities that we'll be putting in place at Henderson.”

PAUL:

That he even revealed that they'd spoken to Trump's golfing buddy, Greg Norman - but literally, as Albanese left that news conference, up on social media, the US press secretary, Caroline Leavitt, posted that Trump was leaving.

Audio excerpt – BBC Reporter:

“White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt made the announcement Monday evening, saying President Trump is returning to Washington so that he can attend to many important matters.”

PAUL:

He'd stay for the day, he'd have dinner with the G7 leaders, and he was going back to the White House to deal with matters arising in the Middle East.

Audio excerpt – Sky News Reporter:

“So it really is an extraordinary development. The main reason Anthony Albanese is here, let's face it, the main reason I'm here and all the other journos are here, is because he was about to meet Donald Trump…and now it’s off!”

PAUL:

And the other point too is that some other very important people also missed out on a meeting. Narendra Modi from India - no lightweight, you'd think that Trump would want to see him - Zelensky from Ukraine, but I think the most interesting point is that the Mexican president, Claudia Scheinbaum, now she also missed on a face-to-face meeting that next day, but Trump called her and had a half-hour conversation with her on the phone explaining things. And I think this gave some ammunition to our opposition in Australia to say, well, Albanese is not doing enough to have a very important face-to-face meeting with Trump, to begin a relationship with Trump that would be in the Australian national interest.

DANIEL:

The Prime Minister said it was fair enough that Trump had to leave. He was going to deal with the escalating situation in the Middle East. So what do we know, Paul, about Trump's approach to that unfolding crisis since the G7?

PAUL:

Well, what we've got all week is a series of seemingly contradictory stands from the US president on how he's dealing with the situation in the Middle East. The White House and Trump himself, they distanced themselves from Israel's preemptive attacks on Iran. After all, they are more than problematic in terms of international law. But there's no doubt that Trump supports Israel in that move. Trump saw the attacks of Israel as a response to Iran not being all that keen to come to the table and negotiate. Now the timeline doesn't support that view. The timeline shows that Israel struck before the meetings were due to be held. And then Trump goes down to Washington and overnight on his truth social raises the stakes for Iran talking about only unconditional surrender will do, which then raised the prospect that what part would the US play in getting this unconditional surrender? Would it join Israel militarily in taking out the Tehran regime? Now, as late as Thursday, Trump was still toying with Iran's minds on whether he would or whether he wouldn't assign American military assets to this battle. There is apprehension that, who knows, within a matter of days, we could see a major escalation in the Middle East.

DANIEL:

So with all of that happening, it seems like the next time the two leaders, Albanese and Trump, are scheduled to be in the same place won't be until September for the UN General Assembly in New York. Is there any chance that they could meet sooner than that?

PAUL:

Well yes there is. Now the NATO summit is in the Netherlands next week and Trump is booked to make an appearance there. Now Albanese, when he met Mark Rutter, the Secretary General of NATO in Canada, said that he would send Richard Miles, the Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister, to The Hague for that summit. But in his last news conference in Canada the Prime Minister hinted that he was now considering going himself. The problem here is that just as nobody knew whether Trump had turned up to Canada, nobody knows if Trump's going to turn up to the Hague. But there is some evidence cited by not only Susan Lee, but even by Dave Sharma, her colleague who was a former diplomat, that this sort of schmoozing of Trump does pay dividends and they point to Keir Starmer, the UK PM. Who'd gone to Washington and had several face-to-face meetings with Trump and on the sidelines of the G7 summit actually finalised a trade agreement between Britain and the US, which did contain some concessions on tariffs.

Now even though Albanese failed to get a meeting with Trump, and he certainly therefore failed to get any guarantees on tariff concessions or on AUKUS, Albanese took great consolation, if I could put it that way, from a doorstop that Trump did with Prime Minister Starmer.

Audio excerpt – Donald Trump:

“We all know the great Prime Minister of the UK and we just signed a document.”

PAUL:

One of the journalists asked Starmer on the AUKUS submarine agreement, is it still proceeding?

Audio excerpt – Keir Starmer:

“Yep, with that, it's a really important deal to both of us. I think the President was doing a review, we did a review when we came into government so that makes good sense to me, but it's really important.”

Audio excerpt – Donald Trump:

“We're very long time partners and allies and friends.”

PAUL:

Trump jumped in and he said, we've become friends in a short period of time.

Audio excerpt – Donald Trump:

“He's slightly more liberal than I am, to put it mildly.”

Audio excerpt – Keir Starmer:

“We stand slightly on the left, but we make it work.”

PAUL:

And then Trump said, but for some reason, we get along. Now, that's the position that clearly Albanese wants to get to.

There is no doubt that Albanese distancing himself from Trump played very well in our recent election. But I think that we're now at a stage where domestic political point scoring should take second place to Albanese as the Prime Minister of Australia trying to get the best deal in the national interest he can, even if it means taking a deep breath and going and seeing Trump.

DANIEL:

Coming up after the break - once Albanese takes a deep breath… what he needs to say.

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DANIEL:

So Paul, let's talk about AUKUS for a bit. Britain has made its position quite clear on where it stands on AUKUUS. Do we get any better sense during the G7 about where Trump in the United States is still committed to the agreement at all?

PAUL:

Well, it's interesting... Since the arrival of the Labour government in Australia, and they looked more closely at the AUKUS agreement, they realised that there is a huge get out clause for the Americans already. It's up to the President of the United States and the Congress to agree to sell these submarines to Australia, providing it's in America's strategic interest to do so. And what we do know is America is falling behind in keeping up building these nuclear submarines to meet its own needs, but there is a new fly in the ointment here. The review being done by Aldridge Colby, who's the Deputy Secretary of Defence in Washington, and Hugh White, for example, one of our strategic experts in Australia, he says, look, Colby will find that yes, there is the get out clause there already, so they don't have to renegotiate that, but Colby will also find that even if America does sell the Virginia Class Submarines to us, gives us to or sells us a couple. It will only be on the assurance that Australia will give that in any conflict between the United States and China, these submarines will be at America's disposal. And that's the cruncher. And that is where former Prime Minister Keating comes in and says, this is putting Australia's sovereignty on the line. It is Australia who must decide if we go to war or not. Not America.

DANIEL:

So Paul, it would seem fairly unlikely that the Albanese government would commit to going to war with our biggest trading partner, China. That seems pretty unlikely, doesn't it?

PAUL:

Well, look, it does. And former Prime Minister Keating in a statement says China has no intention and no plans or intentions to attack Australia or America. And Hugh White makes the point that any conflict between China and America over, for example, Taiwan would inevitably lead to an almighty showdown between these two nuclear-armed superpowers and risk nuclear war and if for no other reason that shows that the likelihood of a war between America and China over Taiwan is irrational. But the problem that we've got here is that rationality and Donald Trump aren't exactly the warmest of bedfellows.

DANIEL:

And so Paul, for all the talk we've been hearing from the Prime Minister about Australia maintaining our sovereignty and appearing to offer some pushback towards the Trump administration recently, do you get the sense that he's committed to keeping America active in our region and keeping the security arrangement with AUKUS alive?

PAUL:

Yeah, there's no doubt, Daniel, that Albanese and Marles see that what's emerged in the last 30 years since Keating was Prime Minister is a multipolar world in the Asia-Pacific, with China now able to rival America in broad terms for influence, that China is a major economic power, as well as emerging, if it hasn't already arrived, as a major strategic power. And as insurance for Australia, if we can keep America committed and with a presence in the Asia Pacific, that is if we convince the Trump administration not to go 100% isolationist, then America will act as a counterbalance to China.

One of the problems is, though, America seems to think that if it's going to be in the region, it has to be the biggest dog, it has to be number one, and we all have to toe the line. And there is a view that America could use its diplomatic leverage or try to coerce Australia to be less reliant on China. This is where, if you like, our economic sovereignty comes in, where we'd have to say to America, hang on, we're not going to do anything to jeopardise our relationship with basically the key to our own prosperity in the last 30 or 40 years, namely our economic relationship with China. And this again is another hot point, if your like, that the Albanese government necessarily has to juggle. In the days, weeks and months ahead.

DANIEL:

Paul, thank you so much for your time.

PAUL:

Thank you Daniel, it's always good talking to you.

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DANIEL:

Also in the news today…

Israel has launched a major wave of airstrikes on Iran, killing at least 639 people — including over 250 civilians — according to human rights monitors. Tehran has responded with missile fire, while its supreme leader vowed to resist Western pressure.

Donald Trump met top advisers but has not confirmed whether the US will join the conflict, despite reports he approved strike plans in advance.

Meanwhile, 140 Palestinians were killed in Gaza in the past day, raising concerns over civilian tolls across the region.

AND

More than two-thirds of Australian universities have dropped in the latest QS global rankings, with Melbourne and Sydney both falling out of the top 20.

The slide is being blamed on funding cuts, caps on international students, and growing competition from Asia — compounded by Trump-era pressure on research ties with the US.

Analysts say it’s a wake-up call for a sector already under serious strain.

7am is a daily show from Schwartz Media and The Saturday Paper.

It’s made by Atticus Bastow, Cheyne Anderson, Chris Dengate, Erik Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah McVeigh, Travis Evans, Zoltan Fecso – and me, Daniel James.

Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Audio.

Thanks for listening. See you next week.

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