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ANGE:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ange McCormack. This is 7am.

The world could soon bear witness to the ground invasion of Gaza, one of the most densely populated residential areas in the world.

That is how Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in Israel appears to have decided to retaliate after last week’s attack by Hamas.

It marked the greatest loss of life in a single day in Israel’s history. Since then, Israel has laid a “complete siege” on Gaza, shutting off delivery of food, fuel and medicines.

Today, world editor of The Saturday Paper Jonathan Pearlman on what’s happening in Gaza and why this new war could reshape the Middle East.

It’s Tuesday, October 17.

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ANGE:

Jonathan, the situation in Gaza right now is rapidly changing. But can you tell us what has happened over the last few days after Israel warned the residents of northern Gaza to urgently leave their homes?

JONATHAN:

So in terms of the latest developments in Gaza, we heard over the weekend that Israel had issued this warning to residents of northern Gaza to leave their homes. That's about 1.1 million people out of the total of 2.4 million that live in Gaza.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter (BBC):

“The Israeli military has said that more than a million Palestinians must leave the northern Gaza Strip within the next 24 hours ahead...”

JONATHAN:

Now, Gaza is one of the most densely populated places in the world. It is, you know, a small coastal strip bordered by Israel and Egypt. And the borders are all basically closed at the moment. So conducting this sort of evacuation is extremely fraught. And the south of Gaza is a border with Egypt, but Egypt is refusing to open that border. So the UN has described the order as impossible without causing devastating humanitarian consequences.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter (CNN):

“The head of the UN's Palestinian refugee agency called the order, quote, horrendous and said the enclave was rapidly becoming a hellhole.”

JONATHAN:

We've also seen that since Israel started targeting Hamas. In the past six days, there have been airstrikes, about 6000 bombs striking Gaza in the first six days of the war.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter (ITV):

“Tonight for a second night, The only lights in Gaza are the fires of Israeli rockets, the flames of a terrible vengeance that's being wreaked on its population. Guilty or innocent.”

JONATHAN:

The Israelis cut off Gaza from food and water, electricity, medicine and fuel as part of a complete siege of Gaza.

Audio excerpt – War Correspondent (CBC):

“Israel has said it's going to lay siege to Gaza and its retaliation has been relentless. We've been hearing non-stop bangs and noises of outgoing Israeli attacks.”

JONATHAN:

Some of that water supply has now been put back in the south of Gaza after the intervention of the US. You know, this has been strongly criticised by human rights groups who say that punishing the entire population is depriving Gazans of their basic needs and that collective punishment of civilians in conflict is is a war crime.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter:

“This is Gaza's largest hospital. Well, used to difficult circumstances, but this, they say, is like nothing before. And almost half the patients here are children.”

JONATHAN:

At the same time as this is unfolding, hospitals in Gaza are filling up. Doctors say they're already out of beds. Patients are lying on the floors. They're out of supplies. They're running on generator power now because of this siege. And doctors are warning that the generators will run out in days.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter:

“The hospital is overrun with patients and their wounded there are sleeping in the corridors now in the emergency department. And we don't have the capacity to take the wounded that need to go to the operating rooms anymore.”

JONATHAN:

Many doctors actually are saying that they'll refuse the evacuation order. A doctor who's head of paediatrics at one of the hospitals in the north, Dr. Hossam Abu Safia, said, “we will not evacuate even if it costs us our lives and is warned that newborns in neonatal care would die if they were to evacuate.”

Audio excerpt – News Reporter:

“The hospital's generator only has enough fuel to power lifesaving equipment like these ventilators in the neonatal unit for a few days.”

JONATHAN:

It's hard to know exactly what the death toll and human toll in Gaza is, but more than 2300 people were reported dead in latest reports and close to 10,000 injured. And these numbers will, of course, rise as the conflict continues. Meanwhile, Israeli troops are amassing at the border. It's about 360,000 military reserves and troops. And it's widely expected that they'll begin a ground invasion soon.

ANGE:

Right. And what is it the Israeli government and the defence forces say they're trying to accomplish here? What's the purpose of placing Gaza under siege and preparing for this ground assault?

JONATHAN:

So Israel has been fairly unequivocal.

Audio excerpt – Benjamin Netanyahu:

“Israel is at war. We didn't not want this war. It was forced upon us in the most brutal and savage way. But though Israel didn't start this war, Israel will finish it.”

JONATHAN:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, “we will destroy Hamas and we will win”. And it appears that the goal is to eradicate Hamas, to weaken it so that it can return to power and to free the Israeli hostages who are in Gaza at the moment.

Audio excerpt – Benjamin Netanyahu:

“They are savages. Hamas is ISIS. And just as the forces of civilisations united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilisation must support Israel in defeating Hamas.”

JONATHAN:

Netanyahu has indicated that this is only the beginning. He said our enemies have only just begun to pay the price. I won't detail what will come next, but I'm telling you it's only the beginning.

Audio excerpt – Benjamin Netanyahu:

“We will exact a price that will be remembered by them and Israel's other enemies for decades to come.”

JONATHAN:

But this is all in response to Hamas's deadly rampage on October 7, where Hamas killed more than 1300 people, mostly civilians.

ANGE:

And, of course, we're still learning all the details of that attack. But what do we now know about what Hamas did on October 7 and how it unfolded?

JONATHAN:

Yes, what we know so far is that at about 6:35 in the morning on October seven, Hamas militants in Gaza first started firing thousands of rockets into Israel and by that 7 a.m. using drones and entering by foot and para-gliders and by the sea. Hamas had overrun the two main border crossings separating Gaza and Israel.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter:

“A clearer picture is now emerging of how Hamas militants broke through what are supposed to be some of the world's most sophisticated border defences.”

JONATHAN:

It was an incredibly well-planned attack and it overcame the Israeli defences of the border with Gaza. Israel prides itself on its military strength and certainly the residents in those areas felt that while it was subject to rocket fire, the border itself was secure. Well, that proved not to be the case. And more than 1500 Hamas militants armed with machine guns and rocket launchers entered Israel and began massive carnage.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter:

“260 bodies were recovered from the site of the music festival at Kibbutz Re'im.”

JONATHAN:

The militants fanned out to towns and kibbutzim near the border. They went from house to house. They shot, beheaded, kidnapped, raped. And, you know, as the massacre continued, Israeli media was broadcasting live phone calls with residents who were trapped in their basements pleading for help.

This marked a monumental failure of Israeli intelligence and security, and Israel did not secure the border until Tuesday. One captured militant reportedly claimed that he saw no Israeli security forces for 5 hours after crossing the border. So the Netanyahu government is already under intense pressure to respond strongly.

And now we're starting to hear some of the first hand accounts from survivors of the attack.

Audio excerpt – Hamas attack survivor:

“We start to hear gunshots for all the they start one apartment, one apartment, one apartment, start to break the windows, break the doors and start to shoot.”

JONATHAN:

There have been some voices from including from some survivors of the attack who are calling for restraint and hoping that the civilians and Palestinians won't pay the price for this.

Audio excerpt – Hamas attack survivor:

“My country didn't want to hurt the civilians. I want they be safe. I don't think they need to died, like, I don't need to died. They're like me!”

ANGE:

After the break - How this war could reshape the Middle East.

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ANGE:

Jonathan, I want to talk about where all this goes, because Israel says this assault in Gaza is to wipe out Hamas. But is that even possible? And how far could Netanyahu's government go to try and accomplish that?

JONATHAN:

Yes, well, it's a difficult task and it's not really completely clear that Israel's goals will be achievable. I think if you look at the military goals to try to weaken Hamas's military capability and bring an end to its current leadership, well, that may be possible. We don't know. And we're about to find out. You know, and the goal there for Israel is to reassert its deterrence, to demonstrate that its military is strong and and demonstrate to its own citizens that the military can be relied on for protection. You know, we're about to see the results of that military goal. But, you know, the broader political goal, I think, is much more difficult. Israel wants to see a new reality in Gaza. It said to end the control of Hamas or radical militants in Gaza. And the results of that, I think, are going to be very difficult to predict. We're seeing what happened with the efforts to dislodge the Taliban in Afghanistan or, you know, the consequences of the Iraq war. You know, remaking political realities is a difficult task and has often had very unpredictable consequences. So I think that broader strategic or political line of Israel is going to be much more difficult no matter how the military side of things plays out. You know, the Israeli military incursion and attacks are going to breed resentment amongst the Palestinians and, you know, potentially radicalise Palestinians, cause mistrust. On the other hand, I think Israelis are going to be questioning how they can guarantee that any future Palestinian administration would be able to avoid this sort of attacks and guarantee their security. So it's a grim prognosis for the longer term approach to finding some sort of peaceful resolution to this.

ANGE:

And what are the risks that this conflict expands? And as a result, could we see a reshaping of the Middle East?

JONATHAN:

Yes, this will certainly change the Middle East. You know, we have seen signs that the conflict is extending beyond the Israel Gaza area. There have been Israeli airstrikes on airports in Syria and there's been exchanges of fire on the border with Lebanon. The risk is that Hezbollah in Lebanon would enter this war. Hezbollah is Iran backed-like Hamas. They see an opportunity to to anti-Israel would then be under attack on two fronts. And Hezbollah is much, much stronger than Hamas. So there is a real risk of the war spreading in that way. And if it were to, then it could encompass Iran and even America. America has sent two aircraft carriers into the region now, and that's really an attempt to deter Iran and Hezbollah from becoming involved. But of course, it adds to the risk that the US could be dragged into the conflict as well.

Audio excerpt – News Reporter (NBC):

“The US is sending military assets closer to Israel-…”

Audio excerpt – Journalist (NBC):

“The USS Gerald R Ford Carrier strike group is heading to the mediterranean. Now that includes the navy’s newest aircraft carrier, the Ford, and cruisers, and four guided missile destroyers.”

JONATHAN:

Iran's role in this is significant. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has denied involvement in the Hamas attack, but he said “We kiss the hands of those who planned the attack on the Zionist regime.” And Iran has been very concerned about Israeli normalisation agreements with Gulf Arab states and a whole bloc of nations that are rivals to Iran. And Iran's principal rival in the region is Saudi Arabia. And there's been talk that a US brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia is close, and Iran would certainly be hoping to scupper that deal. And the sort of conflict we're seeing now is likely to scupper it, at least in the short term, because as long as Israel's attacking Palestinian areas and we're seeing large numbers of Palestinians die, Saudi Arabia will be under immense pressure to not to commit to this deal with Israel. So we're going to see, you know, a different Middle East emerge from this, and this really is just the beginning.

ANGE:

And just finally, so much has happened in ten days and so many civilian lives have already been lost. Is that an indicator of what this type of war will look like?

JONATHAN:

In the next stage of the war will be a ground invasion, it looks like. It's really difficult to know how that is going to unfold, and it will probably cause massive damage as as ground, you know, when there's ground fighting in densely populated areas, it will cause, you know, the toll will increase. And I think it's really difficult to know how long this will last and what the toll will be, what the consequences will be, whether Israel can achieve its its military goals. So undoubtedly, we're going to see more damage and the toll increase as the war goes on.

ANGE:

Jonathan, thanks so much for your time.

JONATHAN:

Thanks Ange.

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ANGE:

Also in the news today -

A man in the US state of Illinois has been charged with a hate crime, after allegedly killing a six year old Palestinian boy.

US President Joe Biden condemned the killing as a “horrific act of hate”. The suspected killer is also accused of stabbing the boy’s mother, who is expected to survive.

And

Western Australia is set to overhaul its firearm laws and cap gun ownership, with proposed reforms limiting recreational shooters to owning ten firearms.

Under the proposed laws, impacted licence holders would have to dispose of their excess firearms - either via an amnesty, selling through a licenced dealer, or through a government buyback scheme.

I’m Ange McCormack, this is 7am. We’ll be back again tomorrow.

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