Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“Right now, I'm in Kabul. When we look outside of our windows, we see just fog and panic.
My wife is crying every night. Please take me out of Afghanistan. Please do something for myself. Please do something, at least for your daughter. She is three years old, she was dancing that night that the Taliban took over Kabul. I was crying for her because she doesn't know about her destiny, about an uncertain future.”

[THEME MUSIC BEGINS]

RUBY:

From Schwartz Media I’m Ruby Jones this is 7am.

After twenty years of war, invasion and occupation, US-led forces in Afghanistan, including Australian defence personnel have finally withdrawn.

It signals the end of one the longest military engagements in modern history.

Within weeks the Taliban, who were officially deposed at the beginning of the conflict, swept the country, seizing the capital, Kabul, and retaking control.

Now there are fears for millions of Afghans facing life under a repressive regime.

Today, chief political correspondent for The Saturday Paper Karen Middleton and policy analyst in Kabul, Ramesh Salimi, on the latest developments in Afghanistan, how we got to this point, and what the future looks like for Afghans.

It’s Monday, August 23.

[THEME MUSIC ENDS]

RUBY:

Karen, you’ve reported a lot on the war in Afghanistan. You also have a first hand understanding of it, can you tell me more about that?

KAREN:

I was in Washington, D.C. on September 11, 2001, covering the visit of the Prime Minister, John Howard. So we were caught up in the middle of the terrorist attacks that occurred in New York and Washington. Through that period, I developed an interest and an understanding of the conflict, and I've been very focussed on it ever since.

RUBY:

And so, what are people in Afghanistan saying to you right now about the situation in the country?

KAREN:

Well people are very frightened, people in Kabul and people in more remote parts of the country.

Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“My name is Ramish Salimi. I was born in the rural area of Bamyan a very beautiful provinces of Afghanistan. The people of Bamyan belong to a Hazara ethnic minority. And we've witnessed the massacre during the Taliban years, almost 22 or 23 years.”

KAREN:

A number of us in Australia, my colleagues and others who have connections to Afghanistan have been receiving desperate pleas in the past few days since the Taliban took over Kabul city.

Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“The vast majority of the people of Afghanistan are trying to get out of the country. But they do not have any access to any documentation or money to travel. Tough time for people who work with international organisation, with the media, or political activist, or women, minority, they are afraid of the Taliban.”

KAREN:

They think they're going to be targeted. Some are already being targeted and they think they're going to be killed and they're desperate to get out.

Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“If we are killed by the Taliban at the airport that’s ok, but if we stay in our home there is no guarantee that we are safe.”

RUBY:

Karen there are many places you could start in trying to explain what is happening in Afghanistan right now. Where would you begin?

KAREN:

Well, the history of Afghanistan is completely fraught and it's been a popular place for foreign invasion going all the way back to Genghis Khan.

You’ll remember that the Soviets invaded Afghanistan back in 1979 and that prompted the United States to arm the mujahideen, the Islamist forces that were rising up against the Soviets.

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

“These men are Afghan Muslims who have taken up arms against the communist regime in Afghanistan. They are called Mujahideen and they are fighting Jihad.”

KAREN:

So the United States, via the CIA, were very engaged through that period.

And then the Soviets withdrew in 1989.

Archival Tape -- Gorbachev:

“Announcing withdrawal from Afghanistan”

Archival Tape -- Soviet soldier:

“It was a big mistake, and all our sacrifice and people lost was all in vain.”

KAREN:

And the Taliban has risen and strengthened through that time.

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

“As we understand it, these men here have taken over the presidential palace.”

They ended up taking over in 1996

Archival Tape -- Reporter

“Overnight they dragged the former president Mohammad Najibullah from the UN compound, he was beaten, shot and his body hung from a lamp post.”

KAREN:

The Taliban were very strict in terms of their enforcement of Sharia law. It was quite repressive and brutal. And, of course, we saw it become what countries, including the United States, called a breeding ground for fundamentalist terrorist groups and of course, the flourishing of groups like al-Qaida and the rule of the Taliban there were what led to the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001.

Archival Tape -- George Bush:

“The leadership of Al Qaeda has great influence in AFghanistan and supports the Taliban regime. And tonight the USA makes the following demands on the Taliban: deliver to the United States all leaders of Al Qaeda who hide in your land.”

RUBY:

So after 9/11 the United States government launches what it called the war on terror, with Australia’s support. The first part of that was the invasion of Afghanistan

Archival Tape -- George Bush:

“On my orders the US military has begun strikes against Al Qaeda training camps and military installations of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.”

RUBY:

Can you tell me what the goal was back then Karen? What were Coalition forces trying to achieve?

KAREN:

Going in there in late 2001 was specifically in response to those terrorist attacks on September 11. It was to find and capture or kill Osama bin Laden and those who had worked with him. And it was to stop Afghanistan ever again, being a haven for terrorist activity. It took them 10 years to find Osama bin Laden, and he was ultimately found across the border in Pakistan and killed in 2011.

And it dragged on and on. And it became a longer term nation building exercise that was not well defined, it changed year on year. And ultimately, the governments involved realised that it was going to be endless.

RUBY:

Can you bring me to the moment where things started to change when the US decided that they would be withdrawing?

Archival Tape -- Donald Trump:

“Thank you very much everybody. Before we begin I’d like to congratulate all those incredible people who worked on our endless war in Afghanistan, 19 years…”

KAREN:

So the United States has been determined, particularly in the last few years, to really finish this conflict and get out. When President Donald Trump took office, he started working on this and in 2018 began talks with the Taliban.

Archival Tape -- Donald Trump:

“And I’ll be personally meeting with Taliban leaders in the not too distant future.”

KAREN:

They culminated in an agreement with the Taliban not really involving the Afghan government, but brokered by Afghans. And it was sealed in February of 2020 of last year.

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

“After 18 months of talks and nearly two decades of war the US And Afghan Taliban have just signed a long awaited deal aimed at paving the way to peace and departure of foreign troops.”

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

“President Biden is set to announce the apparent end to America's longest war. The president will withdraw 2,500 troops by Sept 11 - the 20th year anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks.”

KAREN:

And there's been criticism in recent months and, of course, in recent days of how that whole withdrawal was handled.

Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“Because of the agreement of Trump they brought the Taliban to international prestige. They emboldened the Taliban to fight against Afghanistan.”

KAREN:

It's been bungled. It's a disaster.

Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“It looks like Afghanistan will collapse in a very breathtaking human disaster.”

KAREN:

And we're now seeing an absolute catastrophe unfolding in Kabul.

And I think we're going to see bloodshed.

Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“You put the vast majority of Afghan people to the hands of the Taliban. Shame on you, shame on your policy, shame on your strategy. What did you do in Afghanistan?”

RUBY:

We’ll be back in a moment.

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RUBY:

Karen, can you tell me about the lead up to the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition troops from Afghanistan because the fall of the country to the Taliban seems to have happened very quickly, but there was a bit of a longer process here that you've just been alluding to. So can you tell me exactly what happened?

KAREN:

So as soon as that agreement was sealed and confirmed by President Biden, the clock was ticking, really, and the Taliban knew they had the upper hand. So attempts to get any more concessions out of them really were not very successful. Since then, you have seen the Taliban gain strength. They are well-armed in no small part to the United States involvement all the way back in 1979 when it funded the Mujahideen.

There are people in the United States and here who said, oh, we were taken by surprise. But there are other people who say, well, you shouldn't have been shocked.The history of this is that it can happen very, very quickly.

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

“People in this country say that if the US pulled out your government would collapse in three days.”

KAREN:

We saw Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in a United States television interview three years ago warn that as soon as the United States stopped backing Afghanistan with money and with resources, his government would collapse.

Archival Tape -- President Ghani:

“We’ll not be able to support our army for six months without US support.”

KAREN:

He said it would collapse within six months. Well, it's been a matter of weeks since that occurred. And theTaliban has used a very clever, ruthless strategy of a domino effect.

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

“The Taliban is on the verge of overrunning the city of Lashkar Gar in the south and there’s fierce fighting in Kandahar and Herat.”

KAREN:

They have picked off provincial capitals around Afghanistan, chosen capitals where they had influence.

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

“The last day they have seized the second and third largest cities of the country Kandahar and Herat. The embattled government only controls the capital Kabul.”

KAREN:

Once they got to a tipping point of enough of those towns and cities, there was little resistance.

Archival Tape -- Reporter:

“Taliban forces enter the heart of the Afghan capital, Kabul today the culmination of rapid advance and retaking control. Fighters were filmed inside the presidential palace after Ashraf Ghani, now former President, fled the country.”

KAREN:

And the Taliban were able to march into the city unimpeded.

RUBY:

And can you tell me about the changes that the Taliban has put into place almost immediately after taking power?

Archival Tape -- Zabihullah Mujahid:

“I would like to express my warmest greetings to you journalists and media representatives, to all foreign people.”

KAREN:

We saw the Taliban spokesman give a news conference.

Archival Tape -- Zabihullah Mujahid:

“The Islamic Emirate follows no revenge or hostility policy against anyone after freedom. Therefore, the Islamic Emirate does not have any kind of hostility or animosity with anybody. “

KAREN:

The message coming from the influential people in the Taliban is it's not going to be the same as before. We want to have a diverse government. It's not going to be democratic. Of course it'll be Islamist. It'll run under Sharia law. But we want members of the old government and we want women involved. And you don't have anything to worry about. The Taliban spokesman said..

Archival Tape -- Zabihullah Mujahid:

“We would like to assure all foreign countries, embassies, representatives, diplomats, international orgs, NGOs, they will be safe and no one will harm them. Therefore all foreign countries and your representatives, your embassies, your missions, international organisations, aid agencies, I would like to assure you that we will not allow anybody to do anything against you.”

KAREN:

We forgive you. The Afghan people shouldn't shouldn't be concerned. I haven't spoken to anybody who believes very much of that.

Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“They are saying that there is a public amnesty for everyone in Afghanistan… but the people of Afghanistan do not trust on them.
Every Afghan do not believe on them because we experience our parents and the vast majority of the Afghan people experience the same regime almost 20 years ago.”

KAREN:

And I think people in Kabul are already saying that despite these public assurances, there's evidence of Taliban operatives going house to house, seeking out people who had worked for the Ashraf Ghani government and also seeking out people with ties to the West. All of these people are being targeted and they're very, very afraid.

Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“I know it's very risky jobs in Afghanistan at the moment to talk with you, but I have to and I'm not sure that tomorrow I might be killed. We do not have any option.”

RUBY:

Hmm. And so as the Taliban cements its power in Afghanistan, what is likely to happen next? And I mean that in an international sense, who is recognising the Taliban as the, you know, the legitimate leaders of the country?

KAREN:

Well, this is the next big geopolitical question.

Countries like China and Russia have been very muted in their criticism of the Taliban already. Pakistan certainly, in fact, has actually put out messages almost welcoming the Taliban's return. And Iran has interests in the region. And I think you will see if you talk to the experts, they say the likelihood that China and Russia will move to recognise the Taliban government, perhaps ahead of others and probably Pakistan as well.

Other countries have a big decision to make because, of course, we've already seen the terrible consequences of legitimising the Taliban in those discussions that were held leading up to this situation that formed that agreement.

Australia has its own connections to Afghanistan and its own obligations. So our government needs to make some difficult decisions about how it proceeds with its engagement with Afghanistan and how it might be able to assist the Afghan people and if it can. And so they have to decide, are they going to recognise this regime? Are they going to sanction it? What will that mean for the people?

Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“My message to the prime minister of Australia is this, help us please. The people of Afghan love, the Australian people. They are not militants they are not a threat to your national sovereignty.”

KAREN:

So there's a question about humanitarian aid as well as political recognition that's going to have to be faced by other countries and ours.

And that's going to be a very hard decision, how to help the people of Afghanistan who don't deserve to be punished any further, without legitimising a regime that has taken power again by force.

Archival Tape -- Ramish:

“If the Taliban arrest us, or kill us. Please send our message to the world.”

RUBY:

Karen thanks so much for your time.

KAREN:

Thanks very much Ruby.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today.

NSW recorded the highest number of new Covid-19 cases yet on Sunday, with 830 people testing positive to the virus.

The state administered 45,000 vaccines in the same period, with the health minister Brad Hazzard claiming that life will look “pretty good” in November if the current vaccination rate is maintained.

Meanwhile in New Zealand a cluster of Delta cases of Covid-19 has grown to 71. The country is currently in a lockdown scheduled to end tomorrow at midnight, but there are expectations it will be extended.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. See ya tomorrow.