ZANNY:

It's very difficult for international journalists to get into Gaza. And actually, the only way that you can really do it is to go on what's called an embed with the Israeli Defence Forces, the Israeli army.

Audio excerpt — Zanny:

“Can you tell the difference between a surveillance drone and an attack drone?”

Audio excerpt — Unidentified man 1:

“You’ll hear a boom, that’s an attack drone.”

RUBY:

Zanny Minton Beddoes is the editor-in-chief of The Economist.

ZANNY:

So I went in with three colleagues and we went in a convoy of three Humvees and an armoured vehicle.

And we were joined, somewhat unusually, by Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, who is the head spokesman of the IDF.

RUBY:

This journey she’s taking into Gaza is one very few foreign journalists have been able to make, since Israel’s bombings began.

ZANNY:

We crossed what's called the Netzarim Corridor which is essentially a road that the Israelis have built that bisects Gaza.

Audio excerpt — Unidentified man 2:

“And you can see the fence now. This is the border and this is where we put helmets on.”

ZANNY:

And we crossed on this bumpy road, the seven kilometres to the Mediterranean Sea.

And every single building I saw was flattened or heavily destroyed. I literally did not see an intact building. My colleagues who had been in Gaza before said it was very, very difficult to recognise.

Audio excerpt — Unidentified man 3:

“Here, it's just sort of very organised and complete destruction where on both sides of the road, what you see is just piles of rubble.”

ZANNY:

We know that around 60 per cent of all buildings in Gaza have either been damaged or destroyed. And where I was, it was essentially flattened. I'm not a war correspondent. I'm not someone who does this regularly. But I was very, very struck by its devastation.

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RUBY:

Now, there’s a real risk this devastation could spread.

Iran’s supreme leader has vowed to retaliate against Israel after the head of Hamas’ political bureau was assassinated in Tehran last week.

But while tensions escalate, the fight over who will control Gaza in the future, is continuing too.

From the streets of Jerusalem, to the Knesset, Gaza and the West Bank, Zanny Minton Beddoes has been speaking with dozens of people about what will happen to Gaza when or if the fighting stops.

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am.

Today, what is the future for Gaza?

It’s Wednesday August 7.

[Theme Music Ends]

RUBY:

Zanny, thank you for coming on 7am. It's excellent to have you on the show.

ZANNY:

Very nice to join you.

RUBY:

So Zanny, on this reporting trip, you had this very specific question in mind, which is what happens on the day after. So who would be in charge of Gaza in the days and weeks when and if there was a ceasefire. And, and what would a credible plan for security in Gaza actually look like? Why was that the driving question for you?

ZANNY:

I have been very struck in, all of the reporting and discussion about what happens next in Gaza. That when you talk to people, the day after is usually a shorthand for a very, ambitious vision of, you know, the path to a future Palestinian state, a two stage solution, all of which are extremely important, but they are very much medium term goals. And what I was interested in was what actually happens on the literal day after what happens if there is a ceasefire or even if there isn't a ceasefire? What happens when the fighting ebbs? What does the next month, the next six months, the next year look like in Gaza? How does one even begin to provide relief and reconstruction, and what do you need for that to happen?

RUBY:

Well, let's talk a bit more about what you were told because you posed this question to both Palestinians and Israelis. So politicians, military people, a former Pentagon official – you spoke to a whole range of people. So can you just run me through what the possible scenarios are for the future of Gaza?

ZANNY:

I mean, actually, one of the earliest conversations I had and one of the most clarifying was with Dana Stroul, who is a woman who until about six months ago was deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East at the US Pentagon. And she very clearly laid out for me that there were essentially five options in Gaza.

One, that Israel continues to provide security in effect, as an occupying power. And that is something that is utterly unacceptable to Palestinians for obvious reasons. And frankly, it's unacceptable to most countries around the world.

The second option, which is something that you hear a lot about from Israeli politicians, is that some kind of international, probably pan-Arab coalition would come in and provide security in Gaza. That's what Israeli politicians hope. It doesn't seem at all clear to me that that's very realistic. Then there are two options which people talk about, but neither of which are terribly attractive.

The first is that security is provided by some kind of private contractors, outsourced. The second, which is the one that is really, really unattractive, is the return of Hamas as the de facto governing power. Nobody wants that, but that is in effect what happens absent anything else.

And then the fifth, which is the option that Palestinians in the West Bank, the Americans, and actually most of the international community other than the Israelis, are keen on is that security is provided by Palestinian forces, essentially created from the West Bank, from the Fatah-led West Bank government, and drawing on the people within Gaza who used to be part of the security establishment, the policemen, the traffic wardens who were there in the past providing that.

Those are effectively the five options. The alternative, if you don't have any of that, is that the place becomes a lawless zone run by criminal gangs, a kind of “Mogadishu on the Med”, as someone put it very graphically to me. That's what happens if you don't have one of these other solutions.

RUBY:

Okay, well, let's explore a bit further then this idea that the Palestinian authority could take charge of Gaza. You spoke to several representatives, including the new justice minister. Can you tell me a bit about him and his vision for Gaza?

ZANNY:

So, Sharhabel al-Zaeem, he was one of the most prominent lawyers in Gaza. He's very much part of the Gaza elite.

Audio excerpt — Sharhabel al-Zaeem:

“Guests like Tony Blair, John Kerry, like Katherine Ashton…”

ZANNY:

I went to visit Sharhabel in Ramallah. He was just an extraordinarily eloquent, mild mannered, thoughtful and indeed optimistic person.

Audio excerpt — Sharhabel al-Zaeem:

“This is my home.”

Audio excerpt — Zanny:

“Gosh that’s quite a house.”

Audio excerpt — Sharhabel al-Zaeem:

“This is the swimming pool.”

ZANNY:

His home, which he showed me, this extraordinary sort of grand villa, was completely destroyed by the Israelis.

Audio excerpt — Zanny:

“That’s it now? Oh my god. That is a completely destroyed pile of rubble.”

ZANNY:

He stayed in Gaza after October 7th, until he, like everybody else, was forced to flee his home. And having been asked several times to join the Palestinian Authority and had always refused, but now, after October 7th, he decided it was time to serve. And he joined the new Palestinian government in March.

He is justice minister and he is very passionate about playing a role in the future of Gaza. He was very clear to me that the only legitimate option was for Palestinians and the Palestinian government to provide security for Gaza.

Audio excerpt — Sharhabel al-Zaeem:

“Let's put aside the leadership which might be Hamas. I'm talking about the normal policemen, traffic policemen or, security or whatever. Those are civil servants and those deserve to be given their chance to continue serving. And those people can provide the security and they are well known to the people. They have their own respect.”

Audio excerpt — Zanny:

“And what will be the relationship between the civil police and Hamas?”

Audio excerpt — Sharhabel al-Zaeem:

“I don't think that Hamas will or should be in the picture on the day to day running of the life of the civilians in Gaza.”

Audio excerpt — Zanny:

“Do you think you can make any progress on the path you've laid out without actively talking to Hamas?”

Audio excerpt — Sharhabel al-Zaeem:

“I don't think so. I don't think so, but I'm willing to do whatever I'm asked by the prime minister and the president in order to achieve what we are supposed to achieve.”

ZANNY:

But there's questions about the legitimacy and there's questions about their capability. The PA hasn't itself had any elections since 2006. This is not a kind of legitimate democratic government in any meaningful sense.

The PA itself is being sort of systematically undermined by the Israelis. Israel, for example, hasn't distributed the Palestinian share of tax revenue to which they're entitled. As a result, the PA hasn't been able to pay for civil servants, they are on partial pay.

So this combination of a very, very weak government, one beset by weakness, by corruption and by lack of legitimacy, there's a real question about, you know, whether it can even sustain governance in the West Bank, never mind in Gaza.

RUBY:

After the break – what the Israelis have planned for Gaza.

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RUBY:

Zanny, on your reporting trip, you went to Gaza and the West Bank and you also went to Israel. So tell me a bit about how it felt to walk the streets there?

ZANNY:

For Israelis, it feels as though it's really October 7th has just happened. Everyone knows someone who was directly affected on October 7th.

Audio excerpt — [Protestors chanting]:

ZANNY:

You walk through the streets of Jerusalem and you come across people protesting for a ceasefire against Netanyahu, saying, we need a ceasefire, bring the hostages home. Then a little further on, you see another protest by the families of fallen soldiers against a cease fire, saying that that would mean that their relatives died in vain.

Audio excerpt — Unidentified woman:

“My brother got into Gaza to protect us, to bring back the hostages. And if we stop the fire now, then he died for nothing.”

ZANNY:

I was very struck in conversation after conversation that I had in Israel with all manner of people, people in favour of the government, all serried ranks of the opposition, ordinary people. Virtually no one brings up or mentions Gazan civilians. And when you think about how that is understandably the focus in the rest of the world with the death toll, now, you know it is figures provided by the Hamas led health ministry, but 40,000 people approximately have died. That is not really focussed on in Israel at all. The perspective is completely different and that's the thing that struck me the most. Israel is a traumatised society, understandably so. A society focussed on its own security and the fact that it is surrounded by countries and organisations that want to attack it. But it is one where the plight of and the aspirations of Gazan civilians are just not part of the conversation.

RUBY:

So tell me then, what are Prime Minister Netanyahu's plans for Gaza?

ZANNY:

Well, there are no official day after plans. That's part of the problem.

Audio excerpt — Benjamin Netanyahu:

“Israel will fight until we destroy Hamas’ military capabilities and its rule in Gaza and bring all our hostages home.”

ZANNY:

Prime Minister Netanyahu talks about total victory.

Audio excerpt — Benjamin Netanyahu:

“That's what total victory means and we will settle for nothing less.”

ZANNY:

Total victory becomes an empty phrase after a while. Prime Minister Netanyahu is widely unpopular and It's causing huge frustration within Israel.

RUBY:

A large majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to resign, so if you were to look around at the rest of the Israeli leadership as you did, you spoke to politicians from the left to the far right. What are some of the ideas that you heard there for the future of Gaza?

ZANNY:

So you're right. I did talk to feel like I'd been on a sort of tour of Israeli politics, which is complicated. There are a lot of different parties. On the kind of left, centre left, even centre right. You have a recognition that, you know, you need to focus on security, but then you need to have some prospect for a better life for Gazan civilians. But there are very different means to getting there.

Audio excerpt — Naftali Bennett:

“I'm Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister of Israel.”

ZANNY:

We went to see Naftali Bennett, the former prime minister, at his house, just north of Tel Aviv.

Audio excerpt — Naftali Bennett:

“We'd identify competent officials of various levels.”

ZANNY:

So Naftali Bennet was one of the very senior politicians who was very willing to go on the record and lay out clearly what he thought should happen.

Audio excerpt — Naftali Bennett:

“We should take a piece of Gaza, let's say, from Gaza Wadi northward, and then set the stage and say the following: It's going to take a while, bear with us our friends. But at the end of it, we're going to form a Gaza 2.0 here.”

ZANNY:

So his was a sort of a piece by piece approach, getting rid of combatants properly, as he put it, and then starting again with a part of Gaza and then moving on to another part. But he also had the hope and expectation that there would be Arab forces coming in to provide governance.

Audio excerpt — Naftali Bennett:

“You got to bring in a bunch of competent regional players and find competent local leadership, and that would be appointed, it could not in the first instance be democratic. On that plot of land, let's call it northern Gaza and then all of Gaza gradually set it on its feet, and learn the lessons from post-World War Two reconstruction.”

Audio excerpt — Zanny:

“Would your partner for civil governance in Gaza be the Palestinian Authority? That's what the Americans are very keen to happen, that the PA is the partner. Do you think it can be the partner?”

Audio excerpt — Naftali Bennett:

“I think certainly not in the foreseeable future because they have proven to be deeply corrupt, deeply incompetent and and I'm fairly confident that once we defeat Hamas, we'll be able to find reasonable players.”

RUBY:

And the obvious question there is, if you're quote unquote, “starting again”, what are you starting with when people in Gaza are being killed at the scale they are. Who would actually be left?

ZANNY:

Well, that's right. And I think to be fair to Naftali Bennett, he would have prosecuted this war in a very different way. He acknowledges that nine months on, this is much harder than if his approach had been taken from the very beginning.

But yes, you're right. When you talked to Israeli politicians about what this Gaza 2.0, if you will, would look like the Israeli military was still engaged in combat with Hamas. There were rockets falling, there were Gazan civilians being killed. And there's a kind of, you know, that irony, right, that in sort of air conditioned offices and buildings in Israel, people are talking about Gaza 2.0. Meanwhile, you know, two million people are living in the most horrific conditions still under attack within Gaza.

RUBY:

So Zanny, just finally you laid out five different possible scenarios for Gaza at the beginning of this conversation after the reporting that you've done. Do you have any kind of answer to the question of what happens on the day after?

ZANNY:

So I was in Israel at the end of June. That's several weeks ago now. Clearly a lot has happened since then, both in terms of, you know, rising tensions with Hezbollah, the assassination of Haniyeh. The place right now as we are speaking at the beginning of August is very, very much on tenterhooks. I think there's a real expectation, of course, of Iranian retaliation. The risks of a wider regional conflict are much greater, I think, than they were just a few weeks ago. But the prospects of a ceasefire, which is, you know, I think a prerequisite for much of the day after conversation that I was having have become much more distant when, you know, the main interlocutor on the Hamas side was just been assassinated.

Someone said to me, Gaza will go from being the world's largest open air prison to the world's largest refugee camp. And that is a really, really grim prospect, but right now I don't see many grounds for feeling much more optimistic.

You can't help but be there and sort of be blown away by the potential, by the natural beauty of the place, by the – it's tiny, right? The whole area is really, really small. It could be so much more. But right now, I left not hugely optimistic.

RUBY:

Well Zanny, thank you so much for your reporting and for your time.

ZANNY:

Thank you very much. Thanks for having me.

[Theme Music Starts]

RUBY:

You can hear Zanny Minton Beddoes full report on Gaza on The Economist podcast, The Intelligence. The episode is called ‘Gaza, after the dust settles’. It’s a fascinating listen.

Special thanks to Heidi Pett.

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Also in the news today,

The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates on hold, at a rate of 4.35 per cent.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics last week showed inflation at 3.8 per cent, which was in line with the RBA’s expectations. On Monday the sharemarket dived in response to a weakened US economy.

And

Google has been labelled a “monopolist” in a landmark decision in the United States.

The US justice department and states had sued Google, accusing it of illegally maintaining dominance in online search, by paying companies like Apple and Samsung billions of dollars to have Google be the default search engine on their devices.

The ruling is the first antitrust decision of its kind against a technology giant in decades. The judge will now decide what penalties Google should face.

I’m Ruby Jones, this is 7am. Thanks for listening.

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