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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones - this is 7am.

Australia will end up spending over a hundred billion dollars on eight nuclear-powered submarines. It’s estimated to be one of the biggest spends in the history of the Australian government. So why are we buying them? Are they the best use of taxpayer money? And will they even be able to do the job they’re meant to do?

Today, former Director of War Studies at the Australian Army Research Centre and Adjunct Professor at UNSW Canberra Albert Palazzo, on whether new submarines can actually keep us safe.

It’s Monday, November 14.

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RUBY:

Albert, as we speak, the Australian Government is pushing forward with its plan, a plan that's worth hundreds of billions of dollars to buy eight submarines in a deal with the US and the UK So to begin with, why does the Australian Government say that we need these submarines?

ALBERT:

Well it would be really, really nice and helpful to the Australian public if the Government would be a lot clearer on why we're buying these submarine. We have an existing class of submarines, the Collins class, and they are well past their use by date and need to be replaced. The question is why are we getting nuclear powered ones? And the only answer seems to be that Australia wants to project power into the East China Sea and the South China Sea in conjunction with the United States and presumably the United Kingdom against a potential adversary known as China.

RUBY:

Hmm. Okay. Well, let's talk a bit about China in the South China Sea then, because we know, obviously, that China has substantial interests in that region. But what is its naval capacity like and what would it like to be doing with it? Do we know much about what China's plans actually are?

ALBERT:

Well, for the last 20 - 30 years, China has been building up its navy, the People's Liberation Army Navy.

Archival Tape – [Song of the Chinese Nuclear Submarine Fleet plays]

Archival Tape – Coast Guard:

“Delta 166 …This is the Chinese Navy - this is the Chinese Coast guard, please go away quickly in order to…”

Archival Tape – US Pilot:

“I am a United States military aircraft conducting lawful military activities outside.”

ALBERT:

The reason why they're doing this is that the United States has demonstrated the ability to basically go anywhere in the world it wants to.

Archival Tape – Unknown US Admiral:

“I think the message should be loud and clear that we're serious and if sufficiently provoked we could respond with military power.”

ALBERT:

And it very powerfully demonstrated that ability in 1991 with the invasion of Iraq, where it projected force halfway around the world and then did what it wanted to do in Iraq. Now, as China’s economy expanded and as China's military grew both in sophistication and power, they started building up a fleet of ships…

Archival Tape – Newsreader

“China launched 25 new warships last year alone. Defence officials telling us…”

ALBERT:

…As well as Air Force missiles, nautical mines and a whole slew of other kinds of technologies…

Archival Tape – Newsreader:

“And that includes a hypersonic test that flew around the globe manoeuvrable in flight and traveling five times the speed of sound. Defence officials warn it is...”

ALBERT:

…With the express purpose of preventing the United States from projecting power into areas that China reserved for itself…

Archival Tape – Newsreader:

“One defence official calling the Chinese military growth ‘stunning’”.

ALBERT:

So China has created a quite sophisticated what they call an anti-access area denial zone, and this includes all the way down into the South China Sea, where it has built bases on artificial islands. Now, more recently, the Chinese navy has started to take on the attributes of an expeditionary Navy gaining offensive capabilities, not just expressly defensive.

Archival Tape – Field Reporter:

“For the first time in 42 years, China's nuclear submarine fleet has been revealed. The submarines are now taking part in a military drill in China.”

ALBERT:

And so they're building aircraft carriers. They have some in the water now and more are coming. They've built nuclear powered submarines and more of those are coming, too. And so they're gaining the attributes of a fleet that can go further afield. Presumably initially in the Western Pacific, but beyond the coastlines of the Chinese state.

RUBY:

Okay, so there's this area of water that China has laid claim to, and it's built the capacity not only to defend that area, but also to potentially gain more power in other areas, perhaps in the Pacific. And as that has happened, presumably the U.S. and the Australian Government have been monitoring what's going on. So can we talk a bit about our response and how the submarine deal comes into that?

ALBERT:

So this is where one of the points of tension that we see between the United States and China. China wants to stop the Americans from interfering in what it believes are its waters. And the United States wants to continue to possess that right as the global power to go project power wherever it wants. So the United States, unlike China, has a network of allies in the Pacific

Archival Tape – Newsreader:

“President Biden has announced a deal with Great Britain to supply Australia with nuclear powered submarines. It's a clear pushback against China in the Pacific. Chinese State Media warning Australia that it’s now an adversary and to prepare for the worst.”

ALBERT:

It's essentially suggesting to its allies and friends that it would be a useful idea for them to also start building the assets that one would need in case of a potential conflict with China. And so, you know, Australia has responded here by deciding to build these nuclear powered submarines.

Archival Tape – Scott Morrison:

"The first major initiative of AUKUS will be to deliver a nuclear powered submarine fleet for Australia. Over the next 18 months we will work together to seek to determine the best way forward to achieve this.”

ALBERT:

And just very recently, at the Submarine Institute Conference, the Defence Minister Richard Marles, you know, said that we're getting these submarines to be able to project power at a much greater distance from Australia than we have in the past. And he didn't use the word China, but you know, you're supposed to be able to, you know, recognise what he's intending. And so the US is drawing upon its allies to develop the sufficient power to prevent China from doing what China would like to do. The United States and Australia see Chinese interests as not being supportive of American and Australian interests. So each of these two powers are looking to develop their strengths to protect their interests.

RUBY:

Ok so these nuclear submarines are really the cornerstone of AUKUS, and are supposed to help us - and by extension the United States - to project power into the South China Sea. But can we talk about these submarines specifically, why nuclear submarines and are they a good fit for Australia’s defence?

ALBERT:

Well, first off, you know, there's no doubt that a nuclear powered submarine is really an awesome piece of technology. They are very big. They're very powerful. They can do things that no other submarine can possibly do and do it for longer periods of time. So they are the, you know, the Ferrari or the Lamborghini of submarines, and only a few countries have them because they're very complex. They are very expensive. And of course, you've got this nuclear reactor that you need to maintain…but we haven't stopped to ask…Why do we want to go to the South China Sea? Are there other options to defend Australian interests separating them out from American interests? Because we are technically two different countries and so could we do them in a different way that involves perhaps conventional submarines, which are cheaper and easier to operate. Or, can we perhaps look at autonomous systems or there are other options here. The lure of working with the United States sort of draws us to that logical conclusion of getting these submarines.

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RUBY:

Albert, the nuclear submarines that Australia is committing to - it sounds like they’re the best you can get, they’re powerful - you called them the Ferrari’s of the submarine world. However - you also seem to be saying they might not be fit for purpose… So tell me more about that. What are the downsides?

ALBERT:

Yeah so eventually our goal is to have eight, which would mean in readiness terms that we might be able to have two or three in the operational theatre in the East China Sea or in the South China Sea or somewhere in that area. Two submarines really doesn't pack that much punch when you're talking about the target that is China, a very big country, a very advanced country, heavily industrialised. There are lots of potential targets. So the threat that we could pose from our point of view looks, oh, we're so powerful. But from the Chinese point of view, we are irrelevant. And by contrast, the Chinese have 66 submarines at the moment, and they're building more. Their ability to hurt us, to position submarines off the West Coast or the east coast of Australia, for example, is much greater than our ability to inflict harm on them. This also requires Australia to take a very big gamble, a technological gamble. We're assuming that the ‘state of the art’ now will still exist in 20 years time when these submarines are operational, because that's how long it's going to take us to get them 15 to 20 years. And then they've got to get, you know, we have to learn how to use them. So let's say in two decades time, what we're expecting is that the ability of an adversary to locate your submarines will not change from today. Now to me this seems to be a very poor bet because technology at the moment is advancing at a very rapid rate. And one of the areas it's advancing very rapidly is in detection technologies. A submarine is only effective if it can hide. And if it can't hide, it's just dead.

RUBY:

So then, Albert, why would we be pursuing this then, is this really just about our relationship with the United States? And what message is Australia sending by going ahead with this purchase?

ALBERT:

Well what we're signalling to the United States is that we will stand by them. The relationship with the United States goes back to 1942. The alliance goes back to 1951. So it's been around for over 70 years, so this has been an enduring alliance. But what's the consequence of the AUKUS agreement?

Archival Tape – Newsreader:

“Somewhere between the minister’s caution and the military’s enthusiasm are a multitude of problems that have only become more complicated since the AUKUS announcement 12 months ago.”

ALBERT:

We've seen very little about the AUKUS agreement, and it's now existed for more than a year and it's not really been defined.

Archival Tape – Newsreader:

“Defence Minister Richard Marles is already talking in the opaque language of countless defence ministers before him.”

Archival Tape – Defence Minister Richard Marles:

“I think there is an optimal pathway, to us the language, we are starting to see which does involve all three countries working really closely together.”

ALBERT:

Now, the ANZUS alliance. By contrast, you can Google that and, you know, read it and see how it's a one page document. So what the AUKUS agreement looks like and what's the obligations that are built into it, we don't know. Now, I think as a citizen, we have a right to know. And I think the government is doing a disservice to the public. At the end of a discussion, the decision may be to adhere to the US alliance because that is the best deal for us. But until we have that discussion, we don't know.

RUBY:

Okay and when we think about how these decisions are actually made - the thinking around defence, around what the biggest threats to our national security are - are there things that we’re missing? Because with all the focus on China, I can’t help but wonder if we’re not thinking about the other threat - the threat of climate change and the instability that is likely to bring to our region? That’s not something that submarines would be useful against?

ALBERT:

So the people who make defence decisions, I mean, they're all, you know, fine, intelligent people. But they've all grown up within a system that puts the priority on the threat of being another state. And here, I'm not just talking about China. I'm also talking about when climate change starts to ravage the neighbourhood. Climate change is just a different kind of threat and the submarines will be entirely useless for a climate emergency.

Nobody expects China to invade Australia, conquer Australia or for Australian society to come to an end because of China. But climate change, all of those threats are in play. Climate change is such a high level threat that it could bring the entire human project to an end. And yet we're worried about a second order threat. Whereas we should be thinking about what does climate change mean from a security perspective? And why do we need to prepare for it for the instability of a climate driven future? We need to start thinking about how we protect ourselves in a more violent, disruptive future. And I can tell you, nuclear power submarines do not have a role in that future.

RUBY:

Albert, thank you so much for your time.

ALBERT:

It's my pleasure. Happy to chat.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today…

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been left off Xi Jinping’s official list of one-on-one meetings, which was released ahead of the G20 summit.

Xi will meet with US President Joe Biden, French president Emmanuel Macron and Argentinian President Alberto Fernandez.

Albanese has been pursuing a meeting with the Chinese president and may get one, with Chinese authorities confirming Xi is open to meeting with other world leaders once he arrives at the summit.

And…

Thunderstorms are causing flood warnings across New South Wales and Victoria. Authorities warn the risk of flash flooding will continue into Monday, with particular risk to north-east Victoria and the central and southern tablelands of New South Wales.

The weather system is expected to clear by Tuesday.

I’m Ruby Jones - This is 7am - see you tomorrow.

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