DANIEL:

Gregg, what is the current situation on the ground in Gaza?

GREGG:

The past week or so has been, I think even by the standards of the previous 19 months, a particularly horrific time in Gaza.

DANIEL:

Gregg Carlstrom covers the Middle East for The Economist.

For the past week, he’s been speaking with people inside Gaza, as the situation there deteriorates.

GREGG:

You've had a week of very heavy Israeli airstrikes. With reports of more than 100 Palestinians killed each night in successive bombardments. And then the humanitarian situation of course is dire. Gaza has been under a blockade for two and a half months, no food, no aid of any kind has been allowed to enter so people are beginning to go hungry in Gaza. It's been, even by the standards of this war, a very, very difficult time over the past week.

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DANIEL:

What’s happening now in Gaza has been in the works for some time, with Israeli officials saying they want to conquer and occupy the strip.

In the past week, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed, making it one of the deadliest periods in Gaza since ceasefire negotiations broke down in March.

Last week, Donald Trump visited the Middle East – but didn’t go to Israel.

DANIEL:

From Schwartz Media. I’m Daniel James, this is 7am.

Today, Middle East correspondent for The Economist Gregg Carlstrom on the role Trump is playing – and what it would take for the war to end.

It’s Tuesday, May 20.

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DANIEL:

Israel has launched a new campaign in Gaza, one that Benjamin Netanyahu spelled out a few weeks ago. What we're seeing now was approved by his Cabinet on May 5th. So what has he said about what the goal is in relation to this latest operation?

GREGG:

The way the Israeli government and the Israeli army are talking about this operation is a sustained plan to occupy territory in Gaza. If you contrast it with. The way the army typically fought. In the first year of this war. Israeli troops would go into parts of Gaza, they would carry out raids for a period of days or weeks but eventually, they would withdraw. So Israel didn't actually control much of Gaza except for the periphery and these two east-west axes that cut across the strip.

The plan now is to actually hold territory. Uh... So the army has called up tens of thousands of reservists. It's a much bigger force; several divisions that are meant to go into Gaza essentially raze everything to the ground with no distinction between military or civilian targets, raze all of the buildings. In Gaza and permanently hold that territory and displace the Palestinian population to a very small sliver of Gaza. Towards the south.

DANIEL:

So the goal is to occupy land in the Gaza Strip - to what end, Gregg?

GREGG:

Depends on who you ask. For the army, for Netanyahu himself. The aim of this is a Gaza that is no longer controlled by Hamas and so the new army chief who took office a couple of months ago, the way he sees this is by carrying out raids but then not holding territories, the army did in the first year of the war. It was giving Hamas space to regroup. It could move into areas that had been vacated by the Israeli army. And its fighters could regroup there, and so the idea is to deny them that space, to regroup.

The problem is, though, for many of Netanyahu's coalition partners, this isn't just a military strategy. They see this as part of their longer-term plan. To depopulate Gaza, to ethnically cleanse it of two million Palestinians. And force them into Egypt or force them into other territories, and to start rebuilding the Jewish settlements there, which were dismantled in 2005. That is how people like Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, the hard right ministers in Netanyahu's cabinet, how they see this new war plan playing out.

DANIEL:

Gregg, since the war began, Benjamin Netanyahu’s stated aim has been to destroy Hamas. What does the current membership of Hamas look like inside Gaza?

GREGG:

It's a very good question because much of the leadership of Hamas inside Gaza has been killed over the past 20 months. Yahya Sinwar, who is the group's overall head, was killed in a firefight with Israeli troops last autumn. A number of its military commanders, the second rung, have also been killed. But there is a fairly inexhaustible supply of those young men who are willing to take up arms because of what Israel has done over the past 20 months because of the horror and devastation in Gaza - that creates new recruits for Hamas, the Israeli army itself acknowledges that. But that limited military capability, it's not a strategic threat to Israel in the way that you could say Hamas might have been. Before October 7th, and then as a governing entity in Gaza, I mean, yes, it's able to control parts of Gaza right now, which are these, you know, chaotic, ungoverned spaces. It's able to control them because for 20 months, Israel hasn't been willing to talk about an alternative. It hasn't been willing to consider. Palestinian Authority coming back to Gaza or other ideas like that and If you create a power vacuum, of course, Hamas still has enough guns to fill that vacuum, but... Does that mean they'll be able to effectively govern Gaza? After the war ends, no, Gaza needs tens of billions of dollars for reconstruction. That is something that the international community could use as leverage over Hamas. To urge it to demand that it cede power, that it disarm that is actually effective leverage over the group. So I don't think Israel can completely exterminate Hamas, destroy it. As an entity, but I do think the damage that has been done to Hamas at this point. Is such that It's not going to be a strategic threat or a major political force the way it was.

DANIEL:

And of those members of Hamas that are still in Gaza, Where are they?

GREGG:

Uh, many of them are probably underground, uh, there are... Obviously hundreds of kilometres of tunnels that crisscross Gaza that Hamas dug over the nearly 20-year period that it Controlled Gaza. The Israeli army earlier in the war was quite focused on trying to find those tunnels and demolish them or at least blow up the entrances and exits to those tunnels. They admit the network is much more extensive than they expected and the surviving leadership of Hamas such as it is, is probably hiding out in those tunnels and that's probably where they're keeping at least some of the remaining Israeli hostages who were also still being held in Gaza.

DANIEL:

How would you describe the sentiment within Israel? Is there support for Netanyahu's escalation?

GREGG:

No, there's not. Polls have been very, very consistent about this for months now. Most Israelis, between 60 per cent and 70 per cent, are in favour of ending the war. They're in favour of a deal that would see the release of all remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for a permanent and to the war. The Israeli government. You know, continues to insist that military pressure on Hamas will free those hostages, but the Israeli public, by and large, doesn't believe that because they've seen over the past 19, 20 months that Israeli troops have only been able to free a handful of hostages there reports actually just this morning of another Israeli raid in Gaza that was meant to free hostages that doesn't seem to have succeeded in doing that. Diplomacy, deals with Hamas, that is the only way that Israel has been able to free large numbers of hostages so there is not much public support for continuing this war and even within the military there is some opposition to it there are issues with. Uh... Reservists not mobilising when they're called for duty in some cases fifty per cent of soldiers in a given unit are not showing up for duty not necessarily for political reasons, sometimes it's because they have already done hundreds of days in uniform. Since October 7th and they have jobs, they have families, they have lives, they don't want those to be interrupted again.

DANIEL:

After the break - why Trump didn’t visit Israel.

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DANIEL:

Gregg, ceasefire negotiations have continued over the weekend in Qatar. What do we know about what is being discussed there?

GREGG:

So I think there are almost two parallel negotiations going on right now. There are these indirect meetings between Israel and Hamas in Qatar, which is rehashing. Things that they have been talking about for months now, a possible deal that would see Hamas release a handful of hostages, seven to 10, let's say. In exchange for a few hundred Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli jails and a period of six, seven, eight weeks of ceasefire. This has been something that they've been discussing since Israel abandoned the previous ceasefire in March. But then there are perhaps the more consequential negotiations that are taking place between Steve Witkoff, who is Donald Trump's Middle East envoy. Ron Dermer, who is a top aide to the Israeli prime minister. And some negotiations with Hamas as well through a backchannel that the Americans seem to have established with Hamas and I think. Those are the more significant negotiations. There is pressure being applied. By the Americans, both on the Israeli government and on Hamas to try to get them to at least the temporary deal now with the promise that that will lead to a permanent ceasefire a bit further down the road.

DANIEL:

So far, neither side has been willing to agree to a ceasefire. Can you talk to me about Hamas's strategy and what reasons they might have for not agreeing to a deal?

GREGG:

What they want. It's the same thing that they have wanted since the beginning of this war, really, which is a permanent ceasefire with some sort of guarantees that Israel won't abandon that ceasefire the moment Hamas releases the last hostage that it's holding because they want to remain in power, in Gaza, they want to to remain in charge of the territory and they have been willing to destroy Gaza. In order to remain in power in Gaza. That's what we've seen. So they agreed to a ceasefire back in January, as did Israel, it was meant to take place in three stages. The first phase saw them release some hostages and then there were meant to be negotiations about phase two, which was a more permanent truce. Israel never started those negotiations over phase two. It refused to really engage, so. Hamas now argues they want guarantees that this is going to be a permanent deal. They don't just want something on paper that says You know, we'll start negotiating about a permanent ceasefire, they want American guarantees that that process is going to begin.

DANIEL:

What are we to make of Donald Trump's decision not to visit Israel during his recent trip to the Middle East, which featured stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE?

GREGG:

I think you can make two things of it. One is that Israel didn't fit with the agenda of this trip. He didn't want to go argue with Netanyahu for a day about the Gaza ceasefire. He wanted this very lavish, warm welcome that he got in the Gulf. He wanted big economic headlines, he wanted to be able to tout to voters at home. Here's a trillion dollars of new trade and investment deals that we signed.So I think that's one reason he skipped Israel. But I do think there are also growing signs of a split when it comes to policy between the United States and Israel, Trump announcing nuclear negotiations with Iran. Without telling the Israelis in advance, announcing a truce with the Houthis in Yemen. Again, without coordinating. With Israel. And then these direct talks that the Americans are now having with Hamas, which led to the release of one Israeli-American hostage from Gaza last week. That was something that was verboten in American diplomacy for decades. You could not talk to Hamas. The fact that the Americans are now doing it. Going over the head of the Israelis to negotiate directly with Hamas. Another break. So I think Trump has his own sense of what America's interests are in the Middle East and is willing. To go over the head of the Israeli prime minister in a way that no other American president has in recent decades.

DANIEL:

Has Trump or his administration said anything about Israel's escalation?

GREGG:

I mean, they've said they have had some concerns. They have been a bit more forceful on the question of aid. You know, Marco Rubio and Trump himself. Uh... Saying that there is a problem of hunger problem of starvation in Gaza and urging Israel publicly to let humanitarian aid in and I think that sort of pressure is why we saw this overnight. Announcements on Sunday night the cabinet agreeing to let a bare bones amount of food. Start to go into Gaza. They've been less forceful in public. When it comes to Israel's plans for a big new offensive in private, my understanding is that a lot of people within the administration. Are sceptical of these plans, they want the war to end, they feel like... It's becoming a headache for Donald Trump, it's becoming something that is hovering over and obstructing a lot of what he's trying to do in the Middle East, so I think privately there is a fair amount of concern.

DANIEL:

And Gregg, is there any credible path forward diplomatically or otherwise that could lead to a ceasefire or lasting peace?

GREGG:

A ceasefire, I think, really depends on American pressure. If Donald Trump is prepared to demand, whether in public or in private, that Netanyahu end the war. The Israeli prime minister has no choice but to go along with that he can't fight this war without American military support, American diplomatic support. And at the end of the day Netanyahu was afraid of trump because he's this unpredictable figure and nobody knows what he's going to do so Trump could impose a ceasefire a lasting peace, whether between Israel and Gaza or Israel and the Palestinians More generally, I think, unfortunately, we are so far away from that. Being a reality. It's almost not a conversation that anyone is having. Yet, I think that's something that is going to take many, many years.

DANIEL:

Gregg, thank you so much for your time.

GREGG:

Thanks for having me.

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DANIEL:

Also in the news today…

Joe Biden has an aggressive form of prostate cancer, which has spread to his bones.

The former president was diagnosed on Friday, after seeing doctors about urinary symptoms.

In a statement, his office said Biden and his family are exploring treatment options.

AND

Gina Rinehart has thrown her support behind Ben Roberts Smith – arguing the “relentless attack” on the disgraced former soldier has weakened the nation.

Roberts-Smith lost his appeal on Friday, after three federal court judges found he was not defamed by the Nine newspapers when they published reports claiming he had committed war crimes. Roberts-Smith has always denied the allegations.

Gina Rinehart, who has donated to support the legal costs of former SAS soldiers, declined to say whether she personally paid Ben Roberts Smith’s legal fees.

I’m Daniel James, this is 7am. See you tomorrow.

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