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RUBY:

From Schwartz Media, I’m Ruby Jones. This is 7am.

Governments and car manufacturers all over the world are preparing for a future where most vehicles will be powered by electricity - a future that is just around the corner. But in Australia, there’s no national policy on electric vehicles, and as a result the country is falling behind the rest of the world.

Today, national correspondent for The Saturday Paper, Mike Seccombe, on how electric cars are poised to take over and what Australia needs to do to keep up.

It’s Thursday September 9.

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RUBY:

Mike, electric cars once felt like the stuff of science fiction, but now they are becoming more and more popular around the world. You've been reporting on their growth. So is it true? Are they finally becoming a reality?

MIKE:

Well, yes, it is true. They are not only a reality, but they're about to become pretty much ubiquitous. You know, most people might not realise it yet, but the current car they own is quite likely to be the last one that they ever own, powered by an internal combustion engine and fuelled with petrol.

RUBY:

Right. OK, so can you break that down for me?

MIKE:

Sure. Things are changing very, very fast.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Speaker:

“Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Elon Musk!” [Crowd cheers]

MIKE:

A decade ago, back when a little company called Tesla Motors launched its initial public offering on the stock market. I don't think anyone thought things would move quite this quickly.

Archival Tape -- Elon Musk:

“So that's really the mission of Tesla, is to apply creativity and innovation to create the most compelling cars in the world, bar none. We want to show that electric cars are, in fact, better than gasoline.”

MIKE:

Back then, the cost of lithium ion batteries, that is, the batteries that power electric cars and other most expensive parts. It was 1,100 dollars a kilowatt hour. That's what a battery costs. So you don't have to worry about the kilowatt hour power. Just concentrate on the 1,100 dollars. In the 10 years since then, the price has come down 90 percent to just 137 US dollars, according to a report at the end of last year by Bloomberg.

And they said that in a couple of years, the price will fall even further. And they said by 2023, the price point would be such that car manufacturers would be able to produce and sell electric cars at the same price as traditional combustion engine vehicles. And they predicted that battery prices would continue to fall after that, another 40 percent.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“All major car manufacturers are planning to produce at least one electric model, and the initial costs will be on a par with petrol cars in the next three to four years.”

MIKE:

So, if you put all that together, what it means is that even on a conservative estimate by 2030, electric vehicles (EVs) will be even more affordable to both buy and run than traditional motor vehicles. And when you consider that the average life of a car in Australia is about 11 years, then it seems pretty likely that the current generation of cars people are buying now is likely to be their last.

RUBY:

And so how is all of this translating then into the real world Mike, are people buying electric cars?

MIKE:

Well, it depends where in the world you look. EVs make up only a tiny proportion of the world's total car fleet. Just under one in 20 new cars registered last year around the world was electric, according to the International Energy Agency. But the rate of growth in electric vehicles is exponential and it's going to get faster and faster. And that's because the car companies themselves are driving it.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“Auto manufacturers are shifting towards electric, General Motors plans to introduce 30 new models in 2025 and go all electric by 2035.”

MIKE:

18 of the world's 20 largest car makers have announced plans to increase production of EVs. At least 10 of them have self-imposed targets to become 100 percent electric.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“Jaguar Land Rover says its entire range of cars will be electric within the decade.”

MIKE:

And that includes big iconic companies like Jaguar, Land Rover, Volvo, Mazda, Nissan, GM, Honda. And of course, we should mention the car companies that are already 100 percent electric, like Tesla, which is now valued at 700 billion US dollars. It's the most valuable car company in the world. Just a couple of weeks ago, another company Rivian in America, which specialises in electric utes announced plans to go public, and market analysts reckon it will go on the market with its shares already worth 70 to 80 billion dollars. So car makers and the people who invest in car makers are reading the writing on the wall here. And so are governments, for that matter. They're preparing for the inevitable end of internal combustion.

RUBY:

Hmm, OK, and what role do governments play in this transformation, Mike?

MIKE:

Well, a number of governments have already set dates by which they will ban the sale or registration of internal combustion vehicles as a way to encourage the take up of EVs. And part of their commitment to take stronger action on global warming as well. So most developed nations have pushed things along with various inducements like, you know, subsidies, priority parking lanes, etc.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“Norwegians are turning their backs on fossil fuels and embracing electric cars like nowhere else.”

MIKE:

Norway is way out in front. It's announced an end date of 2025. Sweden, Ireland, Iceland, Singapore, the Netherlands will ban internal combustion from 2030.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung announced that no more new diesel cars and taxis will be allowed to be registered from 2025.”

MIKE:

Britain and California will follow by 2035.

Archival Tape -- Unidentified Reporter:

“The sale of new diesel only and petrol only cars will be banned at a decade earlier than originally planned.”

MIKE:

Most of the provinces of Canada have used by dates, so it's moving at a great rate of knots in other parts of the world. Of course, in Australia, things are more complicated. I guess you'd say. Our federal government is far from embracing EVs and adopting the kinds of policies we're seeing around the world - seems to be in denial, if not actual hostility towards electric vehicles.

RUBY:

We'll be back after this.

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RUBY:

Mike, across the world, we're seeing governments embrace electric vehicles or at the very least, accept that this is the future and that they're going to be a reality. We're not seeing that here in Australia, though. So tell me what's going on?

MIKE:

Well, you're quite right. We haven't seen much, at least at the federal level. And it hasn't been pretty. I mean, at the 2019 federal election, Labour proposed a target of 50 percent new car sales being EV’s by 2030. And this was an attempt to try and present the party as being future focussed and supportive of new technologies. It was also an acknowledgement of reality as we've already discussed. The EV revolution is happening and governments need to prepare for it. But that policy was mocked by the Coalition.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“The problem here is Bill Shorten doesn't understand his own policy and in typical Labour fashion, they want to ram it down the necks of all Australians.”

MIKE:

Scott Morrison said that Labor wanted to take away tradies utes.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“Bill Shorten wants to end the weekend when it comes to his policy on electric vehicles, where you got Australians who love being out there in their 4 wheel drives, he wants to say see you later to the SUV!”

MIKE:

He said that Labour wanted to win the weekend because EVs wouldn't tow boats or go out into the bush.

Archival Tape -- Scott Morrison:

“It's not going to tell you about it's not going to get you out to your favourite camping spot with your family.”

MIKE:

It was a completely fact-free hatchet job that he did, and it kind of summarised how stuck Australia is on climate policy.

RUBY:

Hmm. And what was the impact of that campaign?

MIKE:

Well, it was highly effective, as evidenced by the fact that Labor has completely abandoned an EV target now. And it also shows, I think, in the slow take up of electric vehicles here in Australia. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, there are 20 million registered vehicles in this country and only 23,000 of those are EVs. So that's a bit more than one in a thousand. But recently, we've started to see some shifts, especially as the prices of EVs have started to come down. And here, as in the rest of the world, the number of new EVs being registered is growing at a remarkable rate, even from a very low base.

RUBY:

Mm, and I guess that leads into the big question Mike, which is how much does it actually cost to get an electric vehicle here in Australia? How viable, how affordable are they, especially considering that we're not seeing much government support on that?

MIKE:

Well, right now, there are 31 different electric motor models in Australia. According to the Electric Vehicle Council, 14 of them cost less than 65,000 dollars. And I think the cheapest is somewhere in the low 40s. By the end of next year, there will be 58 different models. So that's a big growth in model numbers. And competition will drive down prices even further, as well as the improvements in battery technology that we've already mentioned and so will some measures being taken by state governments in lieu of any federal government policy in the area. New South Wales, Tasmania and the ACT all now have tax concessions to encourage the take up of EVs in New South Wales and Victoria. There are also rebates in the act. The government will provide you with an interest free loan of up to 15,000 dollars. Interestingly, I might add, the New South Wales Liberal government now has a target of 50 percent electric vehicles by 2030, the same one that Scott Morrison ridiculed when Labour put it up at the last election.

RUBY:

Right, so unlike the federal government, some states are actually offering incentives to encourage Australians to buy electric vehicles. How effective has that been?

MIKE:

So these measures are helpful, encouraging growth in the EV space. But there's another area, of course, that governments need to start taking seriously if they want to really ramp things up. And that's providing the infrastructure that, of course, is needed to run your electric vehicle.

RUBY:

What kind of infrastructure is that?

MIKE:

Well, the main concern people have about EVs, aside from the cost, is about recharging them. You know, we have petrol stations all over the place to help people with internal combustion cars. When it comes to EVs, there are around 3,000 public charging stations in Australia, which is, you know, it's not to be sneezed at, particularly considering how few EVs we actually have. But a lot more has to be done.

But there seems to be something of an investment rush on at the moment to provide more charges. The biggest commitment so far has come from the New South Wales government, part of a 495 million EV package announced in last year's budget. Matt Kean, the state energy environment minister, says the state has committed to ensuring that there will be a charging station within five kilometres of everyone living in the city. And they'll create what he calls a charging superhighway so that everyone in the bush will live no more than 100 kilometres from an ultra fast charging station.

So, that's pretty significant. You know, other states are also investing in the infrastructure. Interestingly enough, petrol companies overseas, energy companies are big. And of course, there's a growing proliferation of small startups that are just setting out to provide EV charging infrastructure. So that part of the picture is coming along very quickly as well.

RUBY:

Hmm, so when you put it all together, it seems like Australia has kind of been doing its best to ignore the development of electric vehicles, certainly at the federal level but they are getting cheaper anyway, there is a lot of investment, some state governments are implementing the policies that they can to help pave the way. So where do you think this leaves us? Do you think that it is likely that within a decade we're all going to be driving electric cars?

MIKE:

Look, I have no doubt, if only because Australia has no car making industry of its own. So we will have to take what the world sends us. And the way things are going, the car makers of the world have decided what the future is. So, there will be fewer and fewer model choices of internal combustion vehicles into the future and more and more electric ones. And while the Morrison government has managed to slow the uptake in this country, we really have no choice. We're just going to have to join the rest of the world as it goes electric.

RUBY:

Mike, thank you so much for your time.

MIKE:

My great pleasure.

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RUBY:

Also in the news today...

Restrictions in regional Victoria, aside from the Greater Shepparton area, will be eased from midnight tonight. Schools in regional areas will reopen for some year levels while retail, entertainment and community facilities will also reopen with some restrictions, and masks will remain mandatory indoors and outdoors.

And a new report has found that most children who have caught Covid-19 in NSW have experienced mild or no symptoms. The National Centre for Immunisation found that despite the huge increase in the spread of the virus, transmission is low between children and only 2 percent of children who have caught Covid-19 have been hospitalised.
I’m Ruby Jones, and tomorrow on 7am we’ll be publishing a special episode focusing on the 20th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks, and the legacy of the war on terror.

See you then.