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KARA:

From Schwartz Media I’m Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, this is 7am.

Much of the country has been hit by torrential rain, and communities across Victoria and New South Wales are inundated with flood waters.

But this is just the start, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, we could be facing an entire summer of floods and cyclones.

As Australia braces for the worsening effects of climate change, experts say we are still too focused on disaster relief and that adapting and preparing communities for disaster is underfunded.

Today, a lead author for the IPCC’s global climate change assessment report, Dr Johanna Nalau, on the summer ahead and adapting to live through the climate crisis.

It’s Thursday, October 13.

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KARA:

Johanna, this week we learn what the weather has in store for us during the next six months, with the Bureau of Meteorology releasing its forecast. And frankly, it makes for some pretty grim reading. So can you tell me a bit about what was in it and how we should interpret that information?

JOHANNA:

Yeah, thanks, Kara. Yes. So the BoM has released this severe weather outlook on Tuesday. I would say it is pretty, pretty grim rating. So it is warning that we are in for some flooding and cyclones, cyclones with the increase, we suppose, and there’s a 70% chance of at least 11 cyclones with an early start to cyclone season very likely.

Archival tape -- Bureau of Meteorology:

“Welcome to the Bureau of Meteorology, severe weather and tropical cyclone. A long term forecast for October 2022 to April 2023…”

Archival tape -- Bureau of Meteorology:

“Now moving on to the tropical cyclone outlook. Typically the official cyclone season is officially from November through to April however cyclones can occur at any part of the year.”

JOHANNA:

What the warming climate does is that is resulting in fewer tropical cyclones actually. But those that do form are trending to be a lot stronger. And then they are also pushing further south, which for countries like Australia, obviously that's a major worry because we have cities, for instance in the southeast Queensland region, Brisbane and the Gold Coast. We haven't had one since the 1950s. So all of that storm activity and extra water is really going to test the communities.

Archival tape -- Bureau of Meteorology:

“Now just having a look at trends in heat so just to note that Australia's climate has warmed by about 1.44 degrees celsius in the 1910-2019 period.”

JOHANNA:

In that same report, the BoM is also warning of increased chances of bushfires, some heat waves throughout the summer and many people don't know that. But heat waves are actually Australia's deadliest natural disaster.

Archival tape -- Bureau of Meteorology:

“And the recent trend shows intense heat events are occurring more often. And 43 extreme heat days in 2019 is the highest on record.”

JOHANNA:

It is really a grim warning of what's to come after a year that has I mean, 2022 has been just full of flooding, rain and other natural disasters, and we still haven't recovered from that. So what that really means is that a lot of the climate change impacts that are being for instance discussed in the media that would happen in the future, some of them, we are already seeing those implications here in Australia.

KARA:

And I mean that's obviously no secret. As you said, 2022 has been pretty hellish and we're already seeing right now some pretty extreme weather events happening across New South Wales and Victoria. So just how dangerous is the situation that some communities could be facing?

Archival tape -- Michael Rowland:

“Victorian residents are being warned to prepare for the biggest downpour of the year.”

JOHANNA:

Yeah. So look, Victoria is now facing another storm system and flooding as well and the Premier Daniel Andrews has already warned communities to stockpile three days worth of food because some of the areas, for instance around the Great Dividing Rates might be cut off.

Archival tape -- Dan Andrews:

“We know that our catchments are full, we know we’ve had record rainfall to this point and we know the ground is absolutely sodden. So even a minor amount of rain would be a risk in terms of flooding but it's not a minor rain event we’re forecasting it will be significant rainfall…”

JOHANNA:

We're saying in New South Wales we already have flooding across the state. Recently New South Wales has this time again been particularly affected.

Archival tape -- News Reporter:

“Top story this hour… Sydney is about to break the record for its wettest year in history as multiple rain bands loaded up with tropical moisture dump unusually large amounts of rain across New South Wales and the Eastern States.”

JOHANNA:

Earlier this week the centre of Dubbo for instance, was under water and there are over 100 flotillas in place for flooding in New South Wales on Wednesday.

Archival tape -- News Reporter 2:

“And it's because of scenes like this… Roads and bridges are being swallowed up by water. And as rivers continue to rise, residents are being cut off.”

JOHANNA:

You know we are already experiencing a lot of adverse weather this year and what the report is saying from BoM is that we have to start preparing for more flooding and more rain and more extreme weather conditions for this year.

KARA:

And these extreme weather events that are hitting, you know, they seem to be hitting so often now that the communities that are hardest hit don't even really have the time to rebuild before they hit again. I'm thinking of towns like Lismore, which has been hit with a so-called one in 100 year event four times this year already. So as many communities across the country are dealing with extreme weather events, what can we learn from what has happened in a place like Lismore?

JOHANNA:

Look, I think there's lots and lots of lessons for that, especially in how we adapt to future climate impacts. What we saw in Lismore, people are still displaced. There's, you know, many, many of the people didn't really receive adequate warnings before it was too late and a lot of them are in limbo. They don't know what to do. They are waiting for decisions by different agencies from different levels of government, telling them are they allowed to build there, you know, what is the land use plan? There has been financial commitments for a flood modelling study that's supposed to look at some of those options. But at the moment, there hasn't been an overall decision across that community as to what their future is going to be like. And that is an insanely stressful situation. So I know that some people, they have got their insurance payouts and some of them are rebuilding, but there's a lot of uncertainty. There hasn't been a clear direction as to what's going to happen with the CBD, what's going to happen with the land use planning. And we really have to think about the future. So adaptation is really about thinking, okay, if we have more of these kinds of events in the future, how can we keep our communities safe? How can we have thriving communities in these areas? And there is a chance for rethinking maybe some of that, you know, how the CBD is built, but also with the housing designs. And so the real question is how do we adapt, in a changing climate.

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KARA:

Johanna we're talking about how we can keep our communities safe from climate events, and you're a lead author for the latest IPCC report, which means you're at the cutting edge of understanding how climate change is already impacting our world. So why do you think it is that we are still reacting rather than planning for natural disasters like flooding, when we know the risks and damage that they can cause?

JOHANNA:

Look, I think there's definitely a range of reasons, but I think for adaptation, I mean, Australia used to be one of the leading countries on adaptation to 2007. There was a really heavy investment in climate change adaptation in terms of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.

Archival tape -- National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility:

“The National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility was given 30 million dollars when launched. Its job was to develop the knowledge that decision makers from both the Commonwealth and industry needed on how best to deal with the impact of climate change.”

JOHANNA:

So we actually got evidence based information, what adaptation can look like in different sectors across the city and communities across Australia.

Archival tape -- National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility:

“Five years later it’s fostered 140 projects across 33 universities around Australia.”

JOHANNA:

And that funding was then geared down after the phase one.

Archival tape -- National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility:

“The national climate change adaptation research facility has been going for about 5 years but the Federal Government hasn’t extended its funding.”

JOHANNA:

Disaster spending has also been focused, really. It's just more on recovery and it is an extraordinarily expensive way of doing things. So we have the National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy, and there has been lots of commitments under that, for instance, in creating the National Adaptation Policy Office, but also investing in, in updating Coast Adapt is an online tool that, for instance, local governments can use to assess their their risks and inform their decision making on the coastal components of adaptation. But I think yeah, I think there is a need to restart that conversation for Australia, for the national plan and strategy. So what does it look like to live in Australia in a changing climate?

KARA:

And so what do you think it is that's actually stopping us from being more proactive if it is better, as you say, for Australia financially, what has stopped governments from, from funding preparation for these disasters and protecting communities ahead of time?

JOHANNA:

I think there's two reasons. One is that climate change itself has been such a contested policy issue in Australia, it has really in recent years been on the backburner and people have been having to fight to even have a sensible conversation. I think the other thing is that adaptation I think is really misunderstood. So because we haven't had to fight to have any action on climate change, now there is a really great urgency to have strong climate policy and reduce emissions. But at the same time I see organisations and people not understanding what adaptation is. Adaptation is just as important, especially for communities like Lismore, so we really need to have thought having a national, sensible conversation about how we can adapt in a changing climate and how can we actually secure communities if they are facing more heatwaves, more bushfires, more floods, what is that? What is the plan? And I think for me even more important is what is the vision? So what is the future vision for, adapting Australia. And I think, you know, sadly these events often spur people thinking about adaptation and these things. So I'm hoping that this can also result in more awareness that we need to reduce emissions and we need to adapt.

KARA:

And so talking about adaptation, these communities that are already at risk, how can we practically prepare them for climate disasters, the ones that we know will keep coming? I mean, what does it look like to build a community that is resilient to floods and cyclones?

JOHANNA:

With climate change adaptation, there's lots of different strategies that these communities benefit from. So, for instance, thinking about rebuilding, say so if we are rebuilding in the same places, they are there, for instance, flood resistant designs and materials that they could be using and where are they going to be outsourcing those? Coordinated community preparations as well. So we saw that some communities fare a lot better because they had had more community disaster and resilience training. And so they knew they knew what to do and some had to self-organise. So I know cases from Northern Rivers, for instance, in Ocean Shores that the community had seen for eight days, they were actually in charge of their own recovery. You know, there's examples of land swaps and changing land use planning for these kinds of high risk areas, but really better coordination between government agencies and clear responsibilities who is responsible for what. But I think in the end, it always comes down to a shared conversation as to what is the future for these communities that live in high risk places. And again, what is the future vision for and is for Australia at the national level? What are we doing to put those structures and architecture in place so that we can make sure that there is a coordinated effort to help Australians to adapt to climate change?

KARA:

And Johanna, we now have a government that has committed to the Paris targets, and they say that they do believe in the urgency of climate change. But it also seems like they're unwilling to spend the sort of money that it would take to get some of these infrastructures like you've discussed, built. So do you think that they will actually commit to the kind of spending we’ll need to prepare ourselves for the climate crisis?

JOHANNA:

Look, I think that relates really to what I said before in terms of that there is some really big urgency and some of the election commitments weigh on, you know, getting a climate policy and Climate Act in place. And, you know, that's where the focus has been. I do think that since we have the National Strategy for Resilience and Adaptation, that we have the National Rotation Policy Office as well. So I do believe that those will be put in place in the next few years. You know, once these kinds of big ticket items for our election commitments have been ticked off, I think there is a lot more space to have these conversations about adaptation. And adaptation, we know that it pays dividends. For instance, I said climate adaptation would save Australia 380 billion in gross domestic product over the next three years. You know, it's good for the economy, but it also reduces, for instance, disaster recovery costs.

KARA:

Finally, Johanna… It’s all well and good for policy makers to have hopes for the future, but there are communities that are being threatened now. Do you have real hope that those communities will be able to adapt in time?

JOHANNA:

Look, that's a billion dollar question. I think my work in adaptation has shown, has at least shown to me, that there is hope. So, you know, climate adaptation is about envisioning futures, but also thinking about how can we keep our community safe and how can we have a sensible conversation, what that looks like, how we live in a changing climate.

I think we all wish that we had had a crystal ball that we could see into the future. But I think with adaptation, the best you can do is to make sure that that you are prepared, but also rethinking maybe some of the traditions or rethinking some of the ways that we live.

So I think attracting the innovative thinking into Australia, I think that's one of the key things that I'm positive about that we can adapt to these impacts.

KARA:

Johanna, thank you so much for your time.

JOHANNA:

Thanks so much.

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KARA:

Also in the news today,

Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young has declared she will be supporting the yes campaign for an Indigenous voice to parliament.

Hanson-Young made the comments as the Greens still determine the party’s official position on the referendum. Earlier in the week, Senator Lidia Thorpe strongly denied reports she had been considering supporting for the ‘no’ campaign.

And…

Tourism Australia has announced the new face of Australia’s international tourism campaign.

Ruby the Roo will be the face of the first tourism ads launched since the COVID pandemic began. She is a computer-generated Kangaroo and will be voiced by Australian actor Rose Byrne.

I’m Kara Jensen-Mackinnon, this is 7am. See you tomorrow.

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